Conference-mageddon 2016 Remix: the Big 12's day of reckoning

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kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Texas Tech and, to a lesser extent, UT, will do everything in their power to keep Houston out. TCU and Baylor will probably also jump on that train. There is a very, very, very low chance that Houston gets a Big XII invite.

Cincinnati, UConn, Memphis, UCF (low), Colorado State (low), and Tulane (low) are also realistic chances. I have heard some whispers of Temple being of interest.

I'd love SDSU, but too far away.

BYU is also an interesting one. WVU will be dead-set against it, but OU will probably favor them.

e: Pac 12 could make a huge behind-the-scenes splash to tear the conference apart. Open invites to TTU, OSU, encouraging OU to jump (SEC? Pac-12?). You'd need 7 of the 10 teams to choose to blow it up for the conference to actually split apart (since that's the only way the Grant of Rights can be removed). Would need to get three of Baylor, TCU, Kansas, KSU, ISU, and WVU, plus UT on board with blowing it all up to make it happen.

kayakyakr fucked around with this message at 02:40 on Jan 20, 2016

# ¿ Jan 20, 2016 02:28

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# ¿ May 10, 2024 10:02

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Numlock posted:

Big XII is a dead conference walking, only thing that would save it is Texas giving up the Longhorn network and the Big XII creating a Big XII network in it's place, and two teams that bring a lot of money (TV market, alumni, etc...) need to join.

Nether of these things will happen.

Texas isn't going to give up the Longhorn Network. What is the Big XII going to do? Kick them out? Lol. Even if OU bolts and the Big XII dies UT isn't a team that is going to be left out when the other conferences start carving up the corpse. In the meantime its 15 million in the bank baby WHOO!!!

On the other side of the issue the best teams that could be picked up (outside of a pipe dream ACC break-up) are ruled out because they are too far from WVU or in Texas. Everything left are body bag teams.

I don't think the expansion faction of the Big XII would be this vocal about their complaints unless this is a sort of ultimatum.

I am really curious if OU would actually peace-out with the grant of rights in place if their demands aren't met. It sounds like there is enough bad blood right now that they'll set up their direction for the expiration of the GoR anyway.

# ¿ Jan 20, 2016 03:09

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Korranus posted:

I hate realignment

Houston's never going to the Big 12. People will piss and moan about economics and Not Liking Houston, and the Big 12 doing just enough to show up on Houston's cable boxes doesn't help UH there, but the tipping point is plain ol crootin. UH in the Big 12 would be a Big School in the backyard of a Big City, and legitimizing UH football in a P5 conference would come mostly at the cost of the other Big 12 teams, namely TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Add a pinch of old school SWC hate, and you get three no votes that will never be reconsidered in a ten team club...and UH is DOA at the board room.

I think for now Houston is just going to have to get a lot of people hot and bothered about making a lot of noise from the G5, and how G5s should only be seen in September and not heard, and become hot real estate to a conference that is competently run...like the ACC or Pac 12. Or maybe a conference that don't exist yet.

UT's crootin has been hurting from A&M's move and TCU's invite as well as Baylor's resurgence. That would give UH a 4th no vote if they're not dumb.

# ¿ Jan 20, 2016 05:43

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Democrazy posted:

As a UConn fan, I never once fathomed that the Huskies would be considered favored expansion targets by anyone ever. Joining the Big XII would save the program financially after Boston College tried to kill it. The move, however, would relegate UConn to bottom-feeder status overnight. But the basketball programs would be safe while getting to clown on Big XII competition in the conference tournament every few years.

However, even if the conference blows up, the Big XII North could come to UConn, just like when the conference first teetered on the edge of disaster. The Kansas schools, Iowa State etc. would all make great additions to the American! And whatever Texas school gets left out in the cold (TCU), you could come and play Houston and SMU all you want!

I wouldn't be too confident about UConn basketball rolling through people. UConn would be a nice addition to an already pretty good basketball conference.

# ¿ Jan 20, 2016 17:50

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

DJExile posted:

man there is no way on the planet the B12 is putting 2 teams in the playoff, especially if Baylor and TCU are the 2.

Florida State was playing #11, Ohio State #12, Alabama #16 and Oregon #8. Baylor and TCU would have gotten in had 2 of OSU, FSU, or 'bama lost. But all those games were blowouts, and Ohio State was impressive enough to jump in.

# ¿ Jan 20, 2016 23:41

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Pakled posted:

Yeah. If at least two out of the four power conference championships in 2014 had been upsets, then we probably would have had both Baylor and TCU in there and the media narrative today would be totally different.

And one of those upsets was tantalizingly close to happening

The point I am making there is that the Big XII hedged and lost. They declared co-champs in the hopes they could sneak the two in, thinking there was a good chance for Wisconsin and GT to pull the upsets. Neither of those things happened and the commissioner wound up with egg on his face.

# ¿ Jan 21, 2016 01:27

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Thermos H Christ posted:

No. No they did not. That did not happen, and as a B12 fan you of all people should know better.

That decision was not made at the end of the season. It could not be made at the end of the season. It had nothing to do with Wisconsin or GT. The rules for the tournament and declaring a winner had been declared long in advance, and agreed upon by all the teams. The commissioner could not just unilaterally take back the hardware from a co-champ who won it fair and square under the rules everyone agreed to. I guess starting this narrative is not as bad as enabling rapists, but I'm still going to add it to the list of reasons I do not like football coach Art Briles. It was asinine of him to demand it, and it is asinine that everyone ran with his insane suggestion that it was possible.

It would have been easy for them to declare Baylor champion and TCU co-champion. Or even declared Baylor as the Big XII's #1 team (would have gone to Sugar Bowl in Champions Bowl years) without breaking the co-champions thing. They hedged by presenting the teams as proper co-champions, not putting one over the other. They lost.

# ¿ Feb 10, 2016 00:09

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Thermos H Christ posted:

There was a tiebreaker in place to determine who got the BCS autobid in the event of co-champions during the BCS era. In 2014 there was not a BCS autobid involved, and there was no tiebreaker in place for the situation that arose. You wanted Bowlsby to just declare unilaterally that one of the champions was more champion than the other, and ask the committee to vote for them? That's ridiculous. He wasn't hedging a bet, he was just making the obvious choice not to do something he had no authority to do, which would have almost certainly kicked off litigation against the league and/or him personally.

There was a tiebreaker. There had to be a tiebreaker to determine who would represent the Big XII in the Champions Bowl. It was actually a really short tiebreaker, too, since it was just H2H. The rules said they would be declared co-champions but the winner of tiebreakers would represent the Big XII in the top auto-bowl.

# ¿ Feb 10, 2016 00:37

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Thoguh posted:

UCONN is not going to get an invite to the Big XII unless the conference is down to Iowa State and K-State and they invite the entire American.

This is truth.

I doubt the Big XII expands. UT is still against it. TTU is against it. I'm sure some of the old northern schools are against it. They might get a transition on conference network stuff, but I bet the Big XII stands pat.

# ¿ Feb 15, 2016 22:57

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Toilet Mouth posted:

Some conversation about the Big Ten led me to wonder, did the Big Ten have a massive shift in philosophy in the couple of years between inviting Nebraska and inviting Rutgers and Maryland? Because they basically represent opposite schools of thought- Nebraska brings an established brand and a reliably competitive program (or so they thought), but basically nothing in terms of regional footprint and BTN subscribers, whereas Maryland and Rutgers bring basically nothing but the cable subscribers.

Did the Big Ten have a change of heart, or did they already have designs on expanding the network with Northeastern markets and invited Nebraska to try to mitigate the brand dilution?

Also, we've gotten a lot of mileage out of Missouri getting rejected, but it really seems like they would have been a good middle route between the two extremes, with both a decent population and a reasonably competitive football program.

Nebraska's the ultimate old-man football school. Not that they actually play old-man football, it's just that it's mostly old men that remember the last time Nebraska was dominant (yes, if you were in college in the late 90's, you are now an old man). They have a decent academic record and control of football in the plains. They couldn't pass that up.

Big Ten was always looking to expand since they realized the network was a money-making machine.

# ¿ Mar 18, 2016 18:20

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Toilet Mouth posted:

News: Is the Longhorn Network Killing the Big 12?

Views: No

The idea of a profitable Big 12 network seems like fools' gold to me. The footprint is too small, and there really isn't enough content. There's a maximum of five conference games per week, by the time ESPN and Fox have taken their share, you're going to be left with some pretty meager morsels. It would be good for basketball, but that's not where the money is.

That doesn't actually answer the question of if it's killing the Big XII. It only details the fact that UT is making a shitton of money off of it. It could still be killing the Big XII.

# ¿ Mar 23, 2016 02:36

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Dr. Gitmo Moneyson posted:

The Big 12 finally figures out what every idiot already knew: 12 teams plus a championship game helps playoff chances.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/15449091/big-12-research-shows-expansion-necessary-boost-cfp-hopes

Analytics from all of the 2 playoffs we've had.

# ¿ May 4, 2016 05:19

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

whiteyfats posted:

Man, them not taking FSU, Miami, GT and Clemson is looking worse in hindsight.

It looked terrible at the time that that seemed like a possibility. Dunno how you pass those teams up.

# ¿ May 4, 2016 17:02

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Wow, I hadn't seen this quote before:

quote:

The Chicago-based firm concluded that the Big 12 could increase its chances of making the final four teams by 4-5 percent by expanding back to 12, adding a conference championship game, and going back to eight conference games.

4-5 percent? That's what this is about?

# ¿ May 4, 2016 19:16

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Spacebump posted:

It's too bad for Tulane this might be happening this summer instead of next. They would look like a better addition next year now that they won't be terrible at football/basketball and have an AD that cares.

It'll extend into next year, at least. You've first gotta get over the UT voting-block hurdle, then you've gotta evaluate schools.

Tulane has almost as good a case as Memphis, Cincinnati, UCF, and Colorado State. Those are probably the front-runners (plus BYU), with an outside shot at the Big XII looking at UConn.

# ¿ May 4, 2016 19:29

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Toilet Mouth posted:

Where are the votes going to come from for this to happen? How do you talk Baylor, TCU, Tech, Iowa State, the Kansas schools, anybody really, into this being in their best interests?

OU is dead set on expansion for whatever reason, and I'm sure WVU would like a couple of travel partners; but other than that I don't see where the support is coming from.

Err, the current vote is 7 for expansion, 3 against. TCU and Tech are the only minor schools against expansion.

Ross Angeles posted:

please let us join somewhere

Think you could relocate a few hundred miles closer to Lubbock? At least to the Mountain Time Zone?

(seriously, if it weren't for the whole two time zone difference travel issues thing, I'd be all for it).

# ¿ May 4, 2016 23:46

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Kim Jong Il posted:

The Big XII definitely made a mistake by not adding Louisville when they could have. I don't think the ACC raid was really on the table, it was being floated by FSU and Clemson as leverage to get what they want.

The Big XII should definitely add BYU and Houston, and are too shortsighted to go for Houston. There isn't another candidate that makes sense unless SMU can somehow turn it around.

Houston adds nothing to the conference, just like TCU. Houston's media influence is limited to the city of Houston itself as they don't have a very widespread or very sports-oriented alumni base, and the Big XII already has a very strong hold on that market. Even during last year's great run, they struggled to fill their stadium. They would actively detract from the existing Big XII programs because they can recruit as a Big XII team, effectively locking TTU, Baylor and TCU out of the city of Houston and competing with UT as the hometown team.

The only compelling reason to invite Houston is to keep a conference like the ACC from inviting Houston instead.

The Big XII should have invited Louisville when they had the chance. Instead we got TCU. Meh.

# ¿ May 5, 2016 03:34

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

KIM JONG TRILL posted:

It really is funny how vehemently Tech/TCU/Baylor fans oppose UH. Scared??

My ideal expansion is go to 14 and add Cinci, UH, UCF, and USF. You get a travel partner for WVU and into the Ohio market, get into the Tampa/Orlando markets and add two schools with huge potential, and solidify your hold on the Houston market and add a program with a pretty good history in football/basketball/baseball.

Sure, they're a monster in waiting. Last time they had money and a major conference? They picked up a Heisman and broke a bunch of records. I don't want anything to do with them.

And, again, the Big XII doesn't need to touch Houston until the ACC starts sniffing around the program. There's no compelling reason to add both USF and UCF. Cincinnati is the 4th most popular school in their own city.

Frankly, there are no good options. Everyone out there is a compromise.

# ¿ May 5, 2016 04:21

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

CaptainYesterday posted:

My personal opinion, which I have stated before, is that the Big 12 should go Big 14. It's the era of the super-conference, and if the Big Ten can get away with adding Rutgers, anything's on the table. Three schools north of the 36th parallel, one school south of the 36th parallel.

My thought is it's either go whole hog or get out.

So stay at 10 and wait until the GoR expires to see what happens with the ACC/Pac-12 to make an SEC-level conference or invite 6 of BYU, Colorado State, Tulane, Memphis, Cincinnati, UCF, Temple, UConn, ECU, or hell, Georgia Southern or some poo poo and go all the way to 16 with a more Big Ten or ACC-like conference.

No UH, though.

# ¿ May 5, 2016 06:33

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Grittybeard posted:

I'm assuming you mean state, otherwise I'm going to need you to list these off for me.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/03/upshot/ncaa-football-map.html#10,39.114,-84.432

Try to find a zip code on the city of Cincinnati where the team even shows up.

Hint: people root for teams from outside of the state they're currently in.

# ¿ May 5, 2016 15:07

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Goetta posted:

Didn't even crack 4% in the actual zip code of the university despite having a top 50 enrollment nationally . Cincy just loves the loving Wolverines so much

It's a very inspecific methodology, sure, but it also shows a either a disinterested fanbase or a terrible social media presence. 40k for a game shouldn't be too hard with an MSA of 2.2 million people.

I'd love to see an updated version of that map as social media penetration increases to see if the representation changes at all.

# ¿ May 5, 2016 16:50

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Hot take: ANY* school in the AAC would be an overall upgrade to Baylor, should the Big XII decide to kick them out as a result of their refusal to release a written or Oral PH report.

* except for SMU or Tulsa, which would be a sidegrade and a downgrade respectively.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2016 19:28

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

TipTow posted:

Maybe I've missed something, but what the hell is wrong with Tulsa besides association with Todd Graham? To me they'd be vastly more preferable than every other AAC team except Houston, Tulane and Cincinnati.

And don't tease me with the swapping-Baylor-for-Houston fanfic, please.

Small private university located in a small state that the Big XII already has a stranglehold on. Just in non-gently caress Tulsa terms, everyone should be "gently caress Tulsa".

# ¿ Jun 23, 2016 15:08

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Big XII... hasn't decided on whether to expand or not yet?

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/college/iowa-state/football/2016/07/05/big-12-conference-expansion-bob-bowlsby/86717604/

# ¿ Jul 6, 2016 17:33

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Grittybeard posted:

Honestly has seemed like the only sane thing to do all along to me. Sure other than maybe BYU there's no one out there to land that will be super profitable in the short term, but it seems like it adds a little protection for the next time Texas decides they want to jump ship or pisses enough schools off that they put the conference in danger again.

By waiting they screwed themselves out of a few schools that are better than anything out there now.

The only school that we screwed ourselves out of was Lousiville, and that was because TCU got in the ear of UT's AD. The expansion targets now are the same as they have been since the last round settled.

Ross Angeles posted:

don't you want a west coast presence, big 12.

please god take our call

I would so love SDSU, but man, you guys are so far away!

e: then again, we're considering UConn, so... Banzai!

# ¿ Jul 19, 2016 23:21

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Grittybeard posted:

Pitt was around weren't they? Not that they're some great pickup either but I think I'd choose them over some schools that you're going to be looking at if they actually do add four. Louisville's the main one you missed though, true.

Pitt was added at the same time or before Lousiville. They weren't really an option because WVU wanted to stick it to 'em and we wanted WVU more.

Big XII could have gone back to 12 with Pitt and Lousiville along with WVU and TCU, but the guys in charge of the Big XII at that time were even worse than the guys in charge now. It's not like they waited and missed, this all happened in the course of a week or two.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2016 23:30

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Thoguh posted:

I would unironically be totally down with Tulane. They even fit in pretty well geographically.

Yeah, Tulane is my #15 if 16 teams is the goal. Totally serious on it.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2016 23:35

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Grittybeard posted:

Bad news: one of them is Colorado.

I'd take Colorado back.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2016 23:55

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

DJExile posted:

BYU seems to be all-in on being an independent so I tend to doubt it's them, but stranger things have happened.

E: Jesus christ the front half of their schedule is murder this year and they're going to do a shitload of travelling. Maybe it is them.
E2: they do have that sweet ESPN deal though so who knows

ESPN pays them ~$6 million/year. They stand to double that in joining the Big XII if we offer them a half share.

The 10 existing big XII schools stand to each make $1 million more per year through offering incoming teams half-shares over the next 8 years of our contract. The incoming schools will take it because making ~$12 million per year is better than making $6 million for BYU or $3 million for the AAC.

Hell, we could probably offer CSU a quarter share and pull them from the MWC.

# ¿ Jul 20, 2016 01:07

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Korranus posted:

gently caress it

If the Big 12 poaches four teams from the American Athletic Conference and none of them are Houston, I'll leave the CFB threads for good because I'll be done with college football.

Stay Korranus!

It's OK, Big XII will poach 3 teams from the AAC and 1 from elsewhere and none of them will be Houston, but you can still stick around!

Houston's best chance is if more stuff comes out about Baylor, they get kicked out of the conference, and the Big XII says, OK Houston, you can come in.

# ¿ Jul 20, 2016 03:21

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Grittybeard posted:

I mean, this has my vote to happen tomorrow.

Mine too... mine too.

# ¿ Jul 20, 2016 03:31

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

A team that got their program started about a decade too late: Georgia State. 32k students, downtown Atlanta. Heart of SEC territory.

Even if they had Georgia Southern's profile, they'd be almost too good to pass up.

# ¿ Jul 20, 2016 04:00

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

General Dog posted:

I don't see how adding 2-4 programs that are going to be absolute dead weight adds either value or stability to the Big 12. They've already been cleared to hold a championship game, which is stupid but fine, they get another check to split 10 ways. Even if you jump to 12 or 14, a conference network is still going to be a non-starter as long as LHN is out there.

With the ACC's new deal and seemingly greater stability, it's either expand and try to stay alive or stay pat and know that if any of the 4 other major conferences wants to go to 16, you're going to be the conference that they target.

While the options out there aren't the most appealing, the thought has become that the Big XII can bring a team upward like the Big Ten is trying to do with Rutgers and Maryland. The pickings are slim, but there are a few teams that fit the mold. The good thing is that the Big XII is top-heavy with only ISU and Kansas being perennial cellar dwellers. It wouldn't be a bad thing to have a few new schools to beat up on.

I don't think that BYU gets invited except maaaaaybe in the football-only style. They have the highest profile of available teams, but lack upside. They have an audience of around 6 million people and that's it.

It's sounding like the Southeast is on the table in a strong way. That means that lower-end programs in Florida, Tennessee, and Louisiana have some shot at getting in. Kansas will be wielding all of the power and influence they have to get UConn into the conference. They want a basketball buddy. And WVU will have an outsized voice in all of this as well, as I think all schools are concerned with finding alternatives to geographically link with West Virginia.

# ¿ Jul 20, 2016 15:11

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

General Dog posted:

I agree that the Big 12 is in a vulnerable position, but I think it's stupid for the decision makers to think that the conference is going to get better by getting worse.

It's either get worse or get dead. There are no other options.

# ¿ Jul 20, 2016 15:19

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

DJExile posted:

The Big Ten never brought in Rutgers and Maryland hoping they'd make the conference better (for football, anyway). The sole reason was getting the NYC and Washington DC television markets for BTN, which in turn is bringing a shitload more revenue into the schools. Even if nobody in either market actually watches it, just being available to all those TVs is an enormous gain.

Which is why UConn is being considered. And UCF (big school in a big and growing city in a big state).

Schools with market and potential.

# ¿ Jul 20, 2016 15:27

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Dr. Gitmo Moneyson posted:

The big plan seems to be that UH will drop their opposition to the UT Houston campus in exchange for Texas helping them get into the Big 12. However UH is doing this with the understanding that, even with Texas's help, they may not get admitted into the Big 12.

Tech's tepid support may come in similar fashion, in regards to the vet school that we are trying to build.

# ¿ Jul 23, 2016 08:29

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

ISU's president has stated that he feels the conference is too Texas heavy. That falls in line with the idea that Texas and tech are supporting Houston only in the knowledge that there is strong enough opposition in the rest of the conference to mean there is no chance that they are invited in the end.

# ¿ Jul 24, 2016 08:17

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

Rumors floating that BYU, with their new AD and coaching staff, are just about a lock to be invited to join. Not decided yet if it would be football-only or whole-package.

Rumors also floating (thanks to Bill Snyder and some flame fanning elsewhere) that Nebraska reached out last week to see about coming back. Also a result of having a different AD than last time alignment came around.

# ¿ Jul 26, 2016 15:30

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

MourningView posted:

That Nebraska thing seems like really obvious bullshit and Big 8 fan fiction. They're in a way more lucrative and stable long term situation now.

Again, this is all *rumors* but Nebraska basically provides the Big XII's long term stability. Stability is not the biggest issue.

The question I have is if they would come back with the LHN still in place and if Texas would consider transforming the LHN if it means Nebraska would rejoin the conference.

# ¿ Jul 26, 2016 16:17

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# ¿ May 10, 2024 10:02

kayakyakr: Feb 16, 2004; Kayak is true

KIM JONG TRILL posted:

Frankly, WVU can gently caress right off. They're a member by necessity and they'd bolt for the ACC if ever offered regardless of whether we give them a "travel partner."

e: And I think the Big 12 would be better served by focusing on getting a big piece of the western pie versus a minuscule piece of the eastern pie. Nobody really gives a poo poo about Memphis/UCONN/UCF/USF football and they have to compete with some really big fish in their respective regions.

Lets be fair, the Mormon market is only around 6 million people, and as much as those guys breed like crazy, that's pretty small-fries overall.

# ¿ Jul 27, 2016 04:27

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Football Funhouse > Conference-mageddon 2016 Remix: the Big 12's day of reckoning

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