2016 Economic Crisis Thread - Duck and Cover?

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Will the global economy implode in 2016?
	We're hosed - I have stocked up on canned goods
	My private security guards will shoot the paupers
	We'll be good or at least coast along
	I have no earthly clue

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Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Numlock posted:

I work in the Oil Services industry and I'm shocked I still have a job.

Nature of the beast. Maritime and Oil, those two always rock the boom and bust bullshit hard. They pay well but don't plan on working in the same place forever. Get out now while you still can.

# ¿ Jan 22, 2016 06:19

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 09:20

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Brannock posted:

Mainstream media starting to take notice... "Death spiral" is a rather dramatic way to put it.

The way bulk commodities are deflating it could end up being that scary. You can charter bulk carriers for a ~~couple~~ just over a thousand a day right now. Baltic Dry Index went below 300 yesterday. It's a leading indicator. Countries that are primarily natural resource exporters (ores, coal, oil, etc) are pretty well hosed.

# ¿ Feb 7, 2016 05:06

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Some conflation between the shipment of bulk commodities and containers in that article. Container rates he's partially correct about, there is an over capacity of container liners on some services. This is because there is a arms race in vessel size. The larger the vessel the cheaper per container cost in fuel. Bulk carriers are a different story. There is definitely a drop in bulk trade particularly in iron ore and coal headed to China.

# ¿ Feb 11, 2016 02:53

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

ductonius posted:

In related news the scrap yards now want to charge the company I work for to take away full steel bins because steel scrap prices have collapsed so bad.

I used to do a lot of scrap work. Always getting loving leaking tires when one has to go into scrap yards. Prolerizers are a hell of thing to see work. Anyway scrap prices are function of steel demand. It's usually cheaper to make steel from scrap than ore. Even when steel is being made from ore scrap can play a role in the process. God I'm glad I don't board scrap barges or ships anymore. Lotta bullshit in scrap work.

But that's a bad sign. Normally one can just put metals out on the street in most big cities and they'll just disappear because random guy with a truck grabs it and takes it to the scrap yard.

# ¿ Feb 11, 2016 07:34

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

It was interesting watch the dollar get stronger from the end of 2014 to the end of 2015. People flipping their poo poo about needing bills of lading for bulk cargoes to be issued before day X. My suspicion was that they had swaps expiring. Welp, that doesnt move the trains or stop the rain.

Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 17:44 on Jun 5, 2016

# ¿ Jun 5, 2016 17:38

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Crashrat posted:

Can you explain the nexus between the bills of lading for bulk cargo and the exchange value of the USD? Just something non-wonkish so I can learn more about this.

Ok,
First bulk commodities are very often international so multiple currencies are involved, and even if the commodity isn't going to or from the US often dollars are used so, swaps get used.
Next, there are important events that trigger things in the contracts, tendering, passing inspection, notice of readiness b/l being issued, etc differs from contract to contract but there are general themes.
So what I think was happening was these contracts had payments triggered by the b/l being issued. If things delay the loading terminal or the vessel arrival the swap might expire before the b/l issuance triggers the exchange of money. Cant have a bill of lading until the vessel is loaded. Then instead of occurring at the exchange rate of the swap, the payment occurs at the current exchange rate. And then somebody gets hosed because they didn't plan ahead adequately for delays.

Edit : phone posting so please forgive errors. Actually waiting on a vessel for a b/l to be issued right now.

Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 18:07 on Jun 5, 2016

# ¿ Jun 5, 2016 18:03

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Ehh it's less of a big deal than you think.

# ¿ Sep 2, 2016 06:36

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

One of the bigger lines will aquire that poo poo and 3.6 percent of the world's containers will start moving again.

# ¿ Sep 2, 2016 06:41

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Diastasis against the post war consensus.

# ¿ Nov 26, 2016 23:35

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Helsing posted:

In fact Obama himself has been pretty candid about this at times and described himself as espousing ideas that would have placed him in the Republican party a couple decades ago.

It's in his book even.

# ¿ Jan 1, 2017 01:37

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

A tendency to systematize opens one up to being sucked into ideologies that are systematics.

# ¿ Jan 10, 2017 06:05

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

call to action posted:

Why does globalization/free trade seem to be viewed as inevitably as climate change or the sun rising in the east, in some circles? Certainly there's a lot of momentum behind it, but it doesn't seem like a force of nature to me.

It is not anymore, longer more complicated supply chains and ever increasing trade and interconnectedness are definately no longer sure things.

# ¿ Jan 11, 2017 06:38

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

caps on caps on caps posted:

If you run this in one of the most robust and simplest model classes, you consistently identify distance as a or the major determinant of trade streams for a large group of goods and almost all services.

They just straight up tell one this in logistics in the supply chain. It's also obvious if one has ever been involved in international logistics. But it's more complicated than just distance. The different modes of transport across the distance affect it too, in significant ways.

# ¿ Jan 13, 2017 06:14

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Seems like a big spike in grain ship charter contacts this month...

# ¿ Jan 21, 2017 00:08

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

CheeseSpawn posted:

it's easy to project Obama as some sort of leftist savior. The wake up call came quickly when Obama started to name his cabinet picks.

No one who bothered to read his book should have been surprised. Paraphrased cause I gave my copy away: "I am going to disappoint them" and "I would have been a Republican in the eighties" Are things that are in there. He told everybody what he was. Anybody upset about him being exactly what he said he was is a bit daft.

# ¿ Jan 28, 2017 17:46

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

readingatwork posted:

"It's really the voters own fault for being so easily conned if you think about it."

I got almost exactly what I wanted at the time voting for him.

All in saying is that he wasn't trying to con anyone. The rhetoric and ideology were of the campaign were consistent with each other, just that most people thought it was something that it wasn't. Obama is what a liberal Christian realist looks like and is what he said he was.

# ¿ Jan 28, 2017 20:22

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Helsing posted:

Except I just cited several really prominent examples of his very obviously lying?

Having a gap been ones ideals and ones possible real actions that can be taken or must be taken is very much what realism deals with. There are not innocent ideologies and we must act and we will inevitably have blood on our hands as a consequence of our actions. Some one who thinks that way will eventually make choices that contradict their ideals. With the understanding that we and history and God after the fact will judge those choices.

# ¿ Jan 28, 2017 21:20

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Horseshoe theory posted:

If we count the Crusades as Christianity then yes, it is.

No it's ideas out of wwi pacifists being confronted by WWII and then dealing with the cold war.

# ¿ Jan 28, 2017 21:24

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Trumps election is the failure of these ideas. There must be something new or we are all hosed.

# ¿ Jan 28, 2017 21:28

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

readingatwork posted:

Wait. You wanted seven wars, an unaccountable financial sector and a surveillance state that knows every time you've picked your nose in the last decade?

We had a surveillance state well before he was president. :colbert:

I remember being a cadet on a prepo that was tied up in the Netherlands. We got told that Dutch anarchists would be listening to any cell phone calls we made to try to get the vessel itinerary for a protest. We also got told that the government would be listening to any phone calls we made and would know if we ignored the warning not to tell family and friends. That was 2002. NSA started really ramping up in the Bush years.

# ¿ Jan 29, 2017 03:49

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

ohgodwhat posted:

Lol and you believed them like a gullible child with lazy parents.

No I eventually looked at the size of the building and power requirements that faculty the NSA was building did some math and went welp, commit nothing to writing electronically that you don't want public or read by the goverment. This is my only real online presence outside of a Gmail account.

# ¿ Jan 29, 2017 05:39

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Helsing posted:

No, he believed that these policies were actually efficacious in the real world. He actually thought his economic policies and foreign policies were going to improve things. And his dumbshit liberal fans believed this as well, long after reality had stopped providing even the thinnest evidence to support that belief.

The model was flawed. The rising tide of comparative advantage did not lift all boats. It exacerbated inequality instead eg. As described in The China Shock. Those of us in the center failed to recognize what was going on. The idea failed to provide fruit for the people it made hungry.

If there is a future for the model it must bear fruit. To me that means a new, new deal. Universal health-care, universal education, and universal welfare/ unemployment/ retirement.

# ¿ Jan 30, 2017 05:00

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

I agree about the chinese lifted out of poverty.

But, they (current adminstration) are gunning to kill it. They've already floated an across the board 20% tariff. How bad is every country in the world moving towards autarky going to be.?

They are demonstrating that they don't give a gently caress and are actively hostile to free trade as it is now. If they win the: we can EO any drat thing we want and gently caress the judiciary fight, how long is it going to take before they get to this.

The failure of the past WWII order to raise up everyone in the developed nations, its failure to address inequality at home is going to gently caress every one if the world moves protectionist.

Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 21:42 on Jan 30, 2017

# ¿ Jan 30, 2017 20:55

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

In addition to the bulk weirdness I mentioned earlier, I'm seeing container weirdness. Overcapacity had been a problem / trend for a while, but holy poo poo, I've never seen a vessel the size im on right now, almost ready to sail, with only 8 containers on deck. Granted this is the first US port, but normally to see this means shipyard, new charter, or heading to scrap. Again a lagging indicator doing a weird thing.

On the other hand it is chinese new year...

# ¿ Feb 1, 2017 19:25

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Dr. Fishopolis posted:

That's a pretty fuckin huge factor, to be fair.

Yeah we see haz drop off to nothing for a month every year. All the vessel schedules change too.

# ¿ Feb 1, 2017 20:59

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

call to action posted:

It's kinda funny how Chinese slaves actually get more time off from their jobs than American workers do

Literal peons got more time off than I do.

# ¿ Feb 2, 2017 06:29

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Forgive me if I do this wrong, phone posting http://i.imgur.com/MUbNvQz.jpg
That's what I'm taking about, this is abnormal even during chinese new year.

# ¿ Feb 2, 2017 07:43

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

call to action posted:

If you're consciously having kids these days, you probably care more about your own ego than the life they'll have to endure.

If we can't affirm that is good to exist, then there is not much to bother fighting for.

# ¿ Feb 2, 2017 21:33

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Think back to the 2012 NIE we are headed towards "stalled engines"

# ¿ Feb 4, 2017 16:58

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Alternately it could be confronted and the irony dissolved. This is a way forward:

E. Warren posted:

I’m going to cut to the chase: We’re gathered today in Baltimore during a moment of crisis—for us as progressives, for us as Democrats, for us as Americans.

We’re in a moment of crisis, and I want to talk honestly about it.

Let’s start with a simple fact: Our moment of crisis didn’t begin with the election of Donald Trump.

We were already in crisis.

We were already in crisis because for years and years and years, Washington has worked just great for the rich and the powerful, but far too often, it hasn’t worked for anyone else.

We were already in a moment of crisis because for years and years and years, the economy has worked just great for those who have already made it, but far too often, it hasn’t worked for anyone else.

We were already in a moment of crisis because for years and years and years, we’ve been living in a nation where opportunity is quietly disappearing. A country that is giving fewer and fewer kids a real chance to succeed.

We all know that this country was never perfect. That systemic racism, sexism, homophobia, and bigotry meant opportunities weren’t spread equally. But over the past generation, we made a shift—a shift from a country bending in the right direction to one where the door to a better life—to a middle class life—has been getting further out of reach with every passing year.

For a long time, I have shouted from every rooftop I could find about how the middle class was on the ropes. How it was evaporating. How if we weren’t careful, it could be like the Arctic ice—melting every year, until it’s gone completely, never to return. And make no mistake, as the middle class melts, the opportunities for the poor shrink to the vanishing point.

People don’t just wake up one day and elect leaders like Donald Trump because hey, “everything is awesome, but what the hell, let’s roll the dice and make life interesting.”

No.

People don’t elect leaders who break all the rules—who violate all the norms—when things are going pretty well.

They don’t elect leaders who campaign for office by attacking communities of color, or religious groups, or immigrants, or women when things are just swell.

No.

Men like Donald Trump come to power when their countries are already in deep trouble. When the economies of their countries are deeply flawed. When people in those countries start to lose hope for a better future and start looking for someone to blame. And men like Donald Trump rise when those with money—and power—get a little worried about their own privileges and decide to help out one of their own who promises to look out for them.

In November, America elected Donald Trump.

Yes, the Russians helped.

Yes, the FBI director helped.

Yes, he lost the popular vote by three million.

But we cannot let ourselves off so easy. Not as progressives, not as Democrats. The excuses end now—right here in Baltimore. We hold ourselves accountable.

And we need to figure out what comes next.

There are some in the Democratic Party who urge caution. They say this is just a tactical problem. We need better data. We need better social media. We need better outreach. We need better talking points.

Better talking points? Are you kidding me? People are so desperate for economic change in this country that Donald Trump was just inaugurated as President, and people think we just have a messaging problem? What planet are they living on?

This is bigger than talking points and tactics, and yes, even than Twitter.

This country is in an economic crisis. For more than 30 years, working families, middle class families, poor families, students, seniors have been squeezed harder and harder, and now they are at the breaking point. Republican politicians have pushed one policy after another that has favored the rich and powerful over everyone else, and far too often, Democrats have gone right along. And no matter how extreme Republicans in Washington became, Democrats might grumble or whine, but when it came time for action, our party hesitated and pushed back only with great reluctance. Far too often, Democrats have been unwilling to get out there and fight.

That ends today. It’s time for Democrats to grow a backbone and to get out there and fight.

It’s up to us—the progressives. We need to make very clear that we, as progressives, as Democrats, as Americans, stand for a BOLD, progressive agenda. Stand for REAL solutions to this crisis. Stand for changes that will make a difference in the lives of millions of people. We need to make clear we will fight.

What do we fight for?

We fight for basic dignity and respect for every human being—everybody counts. All people are entitled to be treated with respect.

We fight for economic opportunity—not for those at the top, but for everyone. We believe that every one of our children deserves a fighting chance to build a real future.

We are not the minority party. We are the opposition party, and we need to talk about the key difference between us and them every day—and we need to say it in the plainest possible way:

Donald Trump has stirred ugly racism, sexism, and hatred in this country, and the Republican politicians smiled and climbed right into bed with him. That stink will be on them for decades to come. The national party that embraced bigotry. To every person in America, we need to say loud and clear: You don’t like how women are treated? Or Latinos? Or Muslims? Or African Americans? Always remember that the bigotry stirred up by Donald Trump is perfectly ok with the Republicans in Washington. They will confirm his Attorney General, they will look the other way on religious bans, they will shuffle their feet over a Supreme Court nominee who thinks employers should decide what kind of birth control women get. Republicans are afraid to stand up for what is right. Afraid to stand up for basic American values.

Well they can nurse their fear. We are not afraid. Democrats are the party of all the people—every single one. We believe everybody counts and everybody gets a chance. Nobody—nobody—gets cast aside. That’s the difference between Republicans and Democrats in Washington.

And one more: Donald Trump and the Republicans in Washington are on the side of the rich and powerful, and they are using every tool of government to help them get richer and more powerful. To every person in America, we need to say loud and clear: You think Wall Street has too much power in Washington? You think giant corporations call too many shots in government? You think billionaires get all the breaks while your family has to watch every nickel? Always remember: the Republicans are not on your side. They’re rushing to unleash the big banks. They’re rushing to gut the consumer agency that has forced banks to give $12B back to customers they cheated. They just pushed a backroom deal for giveaways to big oil companies and another for giveaways to investment advisers who cheat seniors. They’re ramming through a cabinet of ethically challenged billionaires with long histories of grinding working people into the dirt. And the corporate CEOs and the Wall Street bankers and the lobbyists are so happy they are doing little money dances in the halls of Congress.

The so-called “leaders” of the Republican Party can keep their rich friends.

That’s on them. But what’s on us? We need to be the party of hardworking people—every single one. We need to be the party of every family and every small businesses and every person who hasn’t made it yet. We need to be the party of every person who believes we should all get a chance to build something for ourselves and our families.

We need to say what we believe in, then we need to fight for those beliefs.
The world has changed a lot over the past few months, and let’s be honest—there’s no hotline number we can call to learn how best to deal with rising right-wing extremism in this country. Like a lot of you, I’m still finding my way, finding my footing, day by day, step by step. We make mistakes. But with each passing day, we learn.

The lesson of history is that when faced with a danger like Donald Trump, opposition needs to grow. Opposition needs to be focused. Opposition needs to be bold. Most of all, opposition needs to be willing to fight.

Things are moving fast, and time is running out—for us to grasp what has happened, and for us to make clear—in every way, from every mountaintop we can—that we will fight back.

# ¿ Feb 5, 2017 00:02

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Zodium posted:

It's up to the modern pragmatic progressive to bend a knee and subject themselves to the authority of good and proper Crown rule once again. For King and Country, comrades.

# ¿ Feb 6, 2017 17:49

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Kekekela posted:

Free trade is all about removing geographic and other boundaries to trade, which means more fossil fuels moving more stuff greater distances, and the WTO actively prosecuting against pro-local legislation. There's really compelling evidence that regardless of how you feel about free trade's effects so far, its disastrous and unsustainable for the environment. I'd highly recommend Naomi Klein's "This Changes Everything" for anyone looking to read more.

There is a cross over point where nuclear makes sense for containerships. Things were getting close enough in 08 before the crash, that shipyards had been bid out, the ports for the service had ok-ed berthing nuclear vessels, etc.

Doesn't matter now, everything is going to implode in shipping anyway. There is a massive amount of carrier overcapacity. If there is a down turn because of protectionism, I think we'll lose multiple lines at this point. The failure (hanjin), aquisitions of failures (eg. Hapag getting CSAV), and mergers (eg. Hapag and UASC) that are consequence of this oversupply are already happening. A sudden drop in demand could be system breaking. A lot of things would be hosed suddenly.

# ¿ Feb 8, 2017 18:25

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

When the walls go up and all those people lifted out of poverty fall back down to where they were, there are no good outcomes there. We will not be able to isolate ourselves from the fallout.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2017 18:52

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

OhFunny posted:

Christ. He's going to tear apart the whole international trade system down.

Yeah, that's the explicit goal.

# ¿ Mar 2, 2017 08:21

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Dead Cosmonaut posted:

Global trade isn’t going to end if he does that. It just means that all of our influence on the global economy goes to either Europe or China.

It will have a very nasty headache at the very least.

Many carriers will fail if this happens. The container lines in particular would be turbo hosed. They are already weak and some have already failed because of the over building and overcapacity driven by seeking economies of scale. A sharp demand decline would send many of them under. Eventually this would lead to higher freight rates after the blood bath. Higher rates combined with more barriers to trade could very possibly make the current supply chain models, that strive for leanness of inventory, just in time logistic, and which are incredibly complex, non viable.

None of this would end global trade. But it would end the way global trade occurs now. The SCOR model of supply chain would likely not make sense anymore. This would be very bad. What happens if the way most of the world's companies run thier logistics and supply chains all becomes non viable simultaneously?

Trade didn't end during the depression. Global trade will surely continue. That doesn't mean these things would not gently caress us all.

Edit: Trump is an idiot who doesn't know what dumping WTO entirely would do. But you can bet your rear end Bannon does.

Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 18:29 on Mar 3, 2017

# ¿ Mar 3, 2017 18:27

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

call to action posted:

You will never make people care about the health of global trade when they don't have the resources to participate in trade for adequate food, shelter, education, and healthcare. Brexit showed this, Trump showed this, and it will rear its ugly head again and again until we become a more socialist or social democratic society at the minimum.

Whatever system we end up with in the future, it must provide those things : adequate food, shelter, education, and healthcare, to the populations that participate in it. The wages of the failure to provide those things will be death, in a literal sense, from instability and the growth of reactionary right.

# ¿ Mar 3, 2017 20:27

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

"Necessitous men are not free men. ”

# ¿ Mar 3, 2017 20:42

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

You are an idiot who lacks comprehension. I used the word garbage to describe what Rowe had to say. I was criticizing the criticizing of others going too far. It's good to give a poo poo about the work we do in the world.

# ¿ Mar 3, 2017 21:00

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

AstheWorldWorlds posted:

Not if it pays nothing and is immersed in an environment of subjugation. While you call it garbage you were indeed defending the central thesis of the argument, as you remained adamant that one must still somehow remain invested along the lines discussed by Rowe. That you trot out a line about human freedom not being so in such an environment consequently strikes me as deeply loving ironic.

I'm not being paid to suffer a fool right now. Doesn't mean I shouldn't take pride in it. Anything we do we should do well and this doesn't have anything to do with how we are compensated.

# ¿ Mar 3, 2017 21:32

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 09:20

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

AstheWorldWorlds posted:

Yeah, once again, I have no idea what you are talking about regarding pride in ones work as it pertains to Mike Rowe's right wing screed, as that is not his central argument. That you are persistent in this point really does leave an impression you are obliquely defending him wrt Protestant work ethic.

I know you don't, and I'd imagine you don't don't get the story about Jesus and the fig tree either.

# ¿ Mar 4, 2017 05:54

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