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lol @ democratic caucus process mildly subdued lol @ republican caucus process because it's clearly a stepping stone to the ultimate goal of replacing caucuses (caucii?) with primaries i think trump will win by 5-10%, so no big surprise there, and rubio's finish, whether it's a close third or a second place that's humiliating for cruz, will be the bigger story as we roll on to see whether the plurality of republicans who oppose trump's candidacy will coalesce behind a single candidate, give up their inhibitions and join the racist populist fun, or do something even more ineffectual but i dunno poo poo on the other side probably hillary gets more delegates than bernie? but it's almost purposefully too confusing to matter and by the time iowa's actual delegates get picked events in other states will have overtaken them. so, setting aside literal wins and speaking of the effect of the results: even if bernie wins 80% of the shits that are given, it'd only slightly affect matters imo since he almost certainly wins nh anyway. he'll have momentum at that point unless things are really disastrous for him and we'll see if the momentum helps him change the stereotype that he can only win liberal whites because the but gently caress it. buttfuck it oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 01:14 on Feb 1, 2016 |
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Feb 1, 2016 01:12
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Concerned Citizen posted:it's not. iowa is a caucus in order to prevent a conflict with new hampshire. new hampshire law says it must be the first state in the nation to have a primary. iowa only needs to have the first presidential preference by 8 days, so iowa runs a caucus so that both states don't have mutually contradicting laws. correct - which explains why iowa, unlike other traditional caucus states like colorado, wyoming, and north dakota, has reacted in such subdued fashion to this undermining of the caucus process. those other three states have offered up some form of revolt against the gop national party's decision to make the former 'straw poll' the only meaningful delegate-defining portion of the whole byzantine process, but iowa, for the reasons you state, has to put up with this neutered redefinition of a caucus to retain its status, if only temporarily
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Feb 1, 2016 01:27
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cable is good for watching sports
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Feb 1, 2016 04:47
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very early entrance poll results indicate a trump lead http://www.livenewschat.eu/politics/ according to this it's an msnbc stream
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Feb 2, 2016 02:02
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msnbc saying the democratic electorate is about as liberal as it has been, and the republican electorate is less conservative than it has been, which is good news for trump
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Feb 2, 2016 02:04
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blue squares posted:Is this stream lovely for you, too? The official one won't even load for me it sputtered a bit a few minutes ago so i'm sure it'll get worse from here but mostly it's been working
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Feb 2, 2016 02:05
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https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/694326188270063620 for what it's worth i guess. i think trump will win
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Feb 2, 2016 02:08
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Doctor Roosevelt posted:Didn't Paul's people end up taking the lion's share of delegates once all the dust settled, thanks to sticking around through multiple delegate selections over the following months? yeah but this time around, even though the people who go to the RNC are selected in a later round, those delegates will be assigned a candidate based on the total vote in this round. so it's really just a primary with a ridiculous process for deciding who gets a trip to cleveland
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Feb 2, 2016 02:12
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a claim now that entrance polls are indicating a record number of evangelicals. i bet there's a lot of two corinthians types among them
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Feb 2, 2016 02:13
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here's full entrance poll data for what very little it's worth http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/democrat/iowa/exit/ http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/republican/iowa/exit/
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Feb 2, 2016 02:27
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the maps are starting to color in! democracy
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Feb 2, 2016 02:33
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these guys have covered elections for years but getting an online community of people willing to actually call physical humans and ask them how many votes are happening http://www.decisiondeskhq.com// and their site doesn't seem to be crashing trump and cruz have been trading the lead back and forth. i'm assuming cruz will fall behind at some point. don't really know are these guys doing a live stream? their louisiana live stream was pretty informative and weird
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Feb 2, 2016 02:52
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does our embed thing not save tweets after they're deleted? that's a flaw http://www.decisiondeskhq.com// these guys' map is sized by population. it looks like trump is leading in the bigger counties, but i guess a larger % of the smaller counties that are more for cruz have reported. i'm guessing this is good for trump, bad fro cruz
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Feb 2, 2016 02:55
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https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/694337918438150144 this is the kind of analysis that can be sometimes useful. are ace of spades doing somethiugn like this somewhere?
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Feb 2, 2016 02:56
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jones county reports 6 votes: 3 for bush, 3 for fiorina gotta love early reports
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Feb 2, 2016 02:59
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too early to say trump is underperforming, does anybody know if rural precincts report earlier or later? on the one hand they're smaller so things should go faster, on the other hand less organization/connection with outside world so maybe they take their sweet-rear end time counting and reporting
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Feb 2, 2016 03:02
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like for example cruz is almost getting a majority of the 2.8% of polk county that's reported but i'm assuming those are little creepy churches or living rooms of people and the big auditoriums haven't finished their votes yet
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Feb 2, 2016 03:03
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the % of polk county reporting almost tripled and cruz' lead over trump almost evaporated. that's the direction i expect things to go as the gop vote starts to actually come in
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Feb 2, 2016 03:06
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Abel Wingnut posted:it makes sense cruz would lead early. he was projected to lead in the more desolate areas, and those areas can likely count and submit faster as they have less voters. trump will come back when the cities start reporting. i'm going with this too with almost a third of sioux county reporting o'malley is tied with sanders at 56 delegates to 44 for clinton! o'malley'mentum begins
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Feb 2, 2016 03:11
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https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/694341953912229889 this is the kind of analysis that often proves predictive
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Feb 2, 2016 03:13
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fade5 posted:interesting, so Trump could still pull a win out of his rear end like 7 out of 8 precincts haven't yet reported, we'd know if it was a massive blowout by now but shorto f that we know nothing the 56 o'malley delegates in sioux county seem to have been a data entry error 
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Feb 2, 2016 03:17
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i wonder if this microsoft thingy is stealing ace of spades' thunder, they were great to follow in elections where they just had more people dialing phones to the fucke butte county electoral office than the AP but now they're trailing in % of precincts reporting
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Feb 2, 2016 03:19
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Minsky posted:Iowa isn't a winner-take-all state in terms of total delegates right? I don't understand caucuses. i think the democratic one is still a traditional caucus where each precinct allocates delegates proportionally, after a redistribution phase with everybody in groups chanting at each other, and then THOSE delegates go do ANOTHER caucus where THEY join up in groups and choose ANOTHER group of delegates, and THOSE delegates actually VOTE at the convention i think the republicans have done their best to neuter the caucus system, the second stage is still gonna happen but all the delegates chosen there will basically be handed their choice of nominee in an envelope. each candidate gets a proportional number of delegates: if you got 10% of the vote you get 3 of the 30 delegates. there's some silly rounding rules, of course
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Feb 2, 2016 03:22
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they just need one more for a 2 on 2 game 
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Feb 2, 2016 03:22
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https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/694346039688564736 so the people doing the regional projections i was talking up are saying that the regional projections aren't saying much. guess we'll just have to wait and find out!
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Feb 2, 2016 03:28
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 https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/694349879267586048
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Feb 2, 2016 03:43
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Xenophon posted:I just want to say that (a) I hope he is too and (b) he's not the only one who hasn't bought into The Trumpening and it's a little annoying when people treat Joe like the voice alone in the wilderness when others have agreed with his assessment the whole time fair and balanced baseball avatars unite marchantia posted:God if Rubio comes in second i dont think this will happen but im starting to feel like i dont have to worry about trump getting to call himself a winner after this! he'll win new hampshire i think. unless THIS is the thing that sinks him. hey, it could be! maybe!
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Feb 2, 2016 03:55
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lol welp
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EugeneJ posted:Thanks random Twitter account http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/the-breakout-star-of-the-2014-primaries-is-not-a-candidate/article/2553527 quote:During the 2014 primary elections, a ragtag group of unknowns took on the Goliaths and won. And no, I’m not talking about the Tea Party versus Establishment fight in the Republican Party.
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Feb 2, 2016 03:56
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Whiskey Sours posted:Why are there 1000 Democratic voters but like 100,000 Republicans? Because Iowa? the democratic count is of delegates from the precincts since those are what matter in their system, whereas the republican caucus is basically a joke and the only thing that matters is the total individual votes across the whole state so they're counting those i think
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Feb 2, 2016 04:02
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Prorat posted:Does this mean they are ok with their leaders being puppets for big businesses? DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
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Feb 2, 2016 04:03
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Flambeau posted:Is Rubio's strong showing tonight likely to siphon off Kasich/Jeb! folks in NH? RCP says they're all pretty much tied at 10% now fox news and others will be strenuously advancing this argument in the run-up to NH and then we'll get to see how much it mattered. but there are definitely people who want to use this as a way of coalescing support behind rubio, especially now that trump has been humbled (trumbled?)
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Feb 2, 2016 04:05
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District Selectman posted:Ted Cruz is not electable yeah trump's strategy depends on 'this time is different' which hasn't been disproven yet but sure looks a lot shakier now that actual votes have been counted, while cruz' strategy seems to consist of taking the losing coalition from the last election, subtracting a few % from it, and declaring certain victory
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Feb 2, 2016 04:07
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Shifty Pony posted:It is huge... a huge loss. vermont is as easy as it gets. new hampshire is second-as easy as it gets. iowa is closer to third- than fiftieth- but if he really wanted to get things rolling he probably needed a bigger majority than he could possibly get if every undeclared delegate went to him at this point
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Feb 2, 2016 04:08
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Joementum posted:Extremely. congratulations Chromatic posted:I thought Trump was polling extremely high in Iowa and winning there seemed like an inevitability. votes happened! now we get to compare polling to real voting! this is the first time that more than nothing has happened yet! it's so fun. now the data are somewhat less masturbatory and somewhat more relevant
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Feb 2, 2016 04:17
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trump got owned by "the only poll that counts". until the next few i guess
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Feb 2, 2016 04:19
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this first indication that trump's support is many percentage points lower than his polling support is making me very happy. i wasn't willing to let myself hope for it
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Feb 2, 2016 04:20
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rubio and trump are pretty likely to round to the same number of delegates at this point, but the fact that everybody's panting after those last thousand votes goes to show that the delegate match is about 1% of the relevance of iowa. it's all about, as cnn just said, 'bragging rights' which is why this is bad for trump. now that Actual Voting Results exist that indicate he might actually not be as good at politicianing as the politicians he has a tougher argument to make
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Feb 2, 2016 04:25
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Involuntary Sparkle posted:"We will defeat Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton ...or whoever they decide to nominate!" i think he's playing up the chance that hillary gets thrown in jail and the dnc has to pick somebody else and refuses to take sanders basically a republican version of the trump wet dream democrats have i'd still rather have the democrats take their chances against the less horrific republican candidates, to maximize the minimum possible outcome, but it's no fun either way
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Feb 2, 2016 04:46
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But Rocks Hurt Head posted:I wonder how badly his hands were shaking when he tweeted this he's the only sitting politician willingto call out donald trump on his vienna sausage fingers, also on his multiple marriages or whatever conservative culture warrior poo poo, he's a republican establishment twitter warrior
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Feb 2, 2016 04:48
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what a short sausage-finger-like speech
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Feb 2, 2016 04:53
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