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Will Trump get stumped?
Yes
No
#FeelTheBern
Baby Hitler
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Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
WHERE CAN I WATCH THIS?

http://www.c-span.org/ will have coverage throughout the night

In addition, these streaming sites often show the cable networks, which will be covering it.

http://www.livenewschat.eu/
http://www.stream2watch.co/live-tv/us/
http://www.hulkusc.com/

Please suggest in the thread any other streams.

OFFICIAL RESULTS

https://www.iagopcaucuses.com/#/state

https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

IRC

https://client00.chat.mibbit.com/?server=EU.synirc.net%3A%2B7001&channel=%23Poligoon

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES

  • , Governor of Florida
  • , Neurosurgeon
  • , Governor of New Jersey
  • , Senator from Texas
  • , former CEO of HP
  • Jim Gilmore, Governor of Virginia
  • , Governor of Arkansas
  • , Governor of Ohio
  • , Senator from Kentucky
  • , Senator from Florida
  • , Senator from Pennsylvania
  • , Constitutionally Eligible

REPUBLICAN PROCESS

Voters must be a resident of Iowa and a registered member of the Republican Party. You can register or switch registration at the precinct if you have a photo ID and second proof of address.

During the caucus, a supporter of each candidate may give a short nominating speech. After the speeches, voting is conducted by secret ballot. Following the voting, the caucus chooses delegates for the county caucuses on March 12. This year, for the first time, delegates to the national convention will be proportionally bound to vote for candidates on the first ballot based on the outcome of the precinct-level voting.

30 delegates are proportionally allocated to Presidential contenders based on the statewide vote. Each candidate receives (candidate's statewide vote) × 30 ÷ (total statewide vote) delegates. Round fractions to the nearest whole number. If there are too few delegates allocated, the candidate nearest the rounding threshold receives the additional delegate. If too many delegates are allocated, the candidate furthest the threshold looses a delegate.

Full explanation here.

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

  • , Secretary of State
  • , Governor of Maryland
  • , Senator from Vermont

DEMOCRATIC PROCESS

Voters must be a resident of Iowa and a registered member of the Democratic Party. You can register or switch registration at the precinct. You will not need to show ID.

During the caucus, a supporter of each candidate may give a short nominating speech. After the speeches, voting is conducted by having supporters of each candidate stand in a different corner of the room. You may also choose to stand with "uncomitted" people as a group. Supporters are then counted. Any group with less than 15% of the total participants in the caucus is declared non-viable and those supporters may choose to stand with a different group. During this choosing, members of the viable groups have an opportunity to lobby and entice the non-viable supporters to join them, typically through yelling and chants. The count is then conducted again until all groups are viable.

NOTE: Estimates will, of course, be made by media outlets as well as by the campaigns of the presidential contenders themselves as to how many of Iowa's 52 National Convention delegates each presidential contender is likely to be ultimately be receiving as a result of the Iowa caucuses but, of course, since no National Convention delegates are actually being chosen by these caucuses, all such estimates will almost certainly, come the District Conventions in April and the State Convention in June, be wrong!!

At each caucus, each presidential contender who fails to get at least 15 percent support among the participants in the initial balloting after a period of discussion will be considered "non-viable" and all supporters of such "non-viable" presidential contenders will then be required to join in the support of presidential contenders who have remained "viable". To determine the viability of a presidential contender, multiply the number of eligible caucus attendees by the percentages below and round to the nearest whole number. This is the minimum number of delegates needed for the contender to remain viable.

- 50% (majority vote) for caucuses electing 1 delegate.
- 25% (one quarter) for caucuses electing 2 delegates.
- 16.66...% (one sixth) for caucuses electing 3 delegates.
- 15% for caucuses electing 4 or more delegates.

Here's the full delegate selection plan. My advice is to not try to understand it. The number of delegates from each precinct caucus will be transmitted to the state party which will announce which candidates have won which of the 1,406 delegates to the county conventions.

In addition to the 44 delegates which will later be assigned at the district and state conventions, there are 8 party leader delegates who will attend the national convention.

Joementum has issued a correction as of 00:26 on Feb 2, 2016

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Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Concerned Citizen posted:

it's not. iowa is a caucus in order to prevent a conflict with new hampshire. new hampshire law says it must be the first state in the nation to have a primary. iowa only needs to have the first presidential preference by 8 days, so iowa runs a caucus so that both states don't have mutually contradicting laws.

iowa can never move to a primary system without losing its first in the nation status.

Sure they can, they just need the RNC to side with them over NH. The NH state law is a signal of the state's passion for being first, but the only person bound by it is the NH Secretary of State.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
The other barrier to changing from a caucus to a primary is that primaries are paid for by the state, so you have to convince the legislature to set aside a couple million to administer a special election, or hold it late in the spring to coincide with legislative primaries.

Caucuses are paid for by the parties and are a good opportunity for them to build their local organizations.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Jose posted:

why is iowa of all places so important

Their state party chair decided to distribute a copy of the rules to everyone who participated in the state, district, county, and precinct caucuses in 1972. They knew they were having the state one in May, so he asked the guy in charge of printing how long he'd need and, having only an old mimeograph machine he said he'd need a month of lead time for each level. Counting back from May, that put the precinct caucuses in January and that's how Iowa came first.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
Big, if true.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
Small correction to the OP, the three GOP state party leaders are also bound tonight based on proportional allocation. See Josh Putnam's (always excellent) explainer.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
According to an average of forecasts, Clinton has a 68 percent chance and Trump has a 57 percent chance of winning Iowa.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
Oh you better believe he broke out the vest for today.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
Quote of the day, “I’d love to say that second place is great but it’s not a win and I know that’s a terrible expectation to set but our country needs to win again.” ~ Corey Lewandowski, campaign manager for Trump.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

MeatwadIsGod posted:

Is streaming allowed from within any of the caucus locations so I can be like



News organizations will have cameras in precincts. No idea what they do about people with cell phone streams, but I'm sure people will be doing it.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

pathetic little tramp posted:

Periscope has an API, right? I'm sure Twitter has safeguards and auth-keys that prevent doing just this, but I could probably write a script that looks for all periscope streams labelled Iowa and integrates them into that ozymandial wall... by next year.

https://twitter.com/search?q=periscope%20near%3A%22Iowa%22%20within%3A15mi&src=typd

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

a cop posted:

Are they actually going to have cameras INSIDE the caucuses where the people are giving speeches to support their candidates and poo poo?

Yes, but all the cable networks are just going to have it running split-screen while some hack pundit tells you what they think.

C-SPAN usually shows some of the speeches, but they also love to cut away for callers.

Then again, C-SPAN callers are great.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
PREDICTION: The outcome will depend on which campaign is most effective turning out their supporters.




I am available for booking on Sunday morning political shows.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Concerned Citizen posted:

*flexes muscles*

Bro, do you even seize the means of production?

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
Caucus night, 1980.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
Some conspicuous absences here. Maybe they're using Bing.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/694268598265651201

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
Got SA on one screen, Tweetdeck on the second, and MSNBC streaming on the third. A bottle of wine and a Long Trail beer variety pack. Let's do this! :getin:

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/694298930717167616

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Josh Lyman posted:

You're all in for MSNBC? :monocle:

I prefer C-SPAN, but their coverage hasn't started yet.

Watching CNN seems like a high risk proposition. Could easily result in my brain exploding.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
Official results will be here:

https://www.iagopcaucuses.com/#/state

https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

Those are coming right out of the Microsoft app, so all the news orgs will be getting them from those sites. Adding this to the OP.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
https://twitter.com/SimonMaloy/status/694300932285272065

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Pick posted:

Why is the caucusing process so unbelievably stupid?

So that it can be controlled by the state party.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

B B posted:

What kinda wine you drink, Joe?

Just a bottle of cheap Rioja for tonight.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/694304362898657280

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
Chris Matthews just said Bernie is a "Tony Bennett figure". :psyduck:

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

pathetic little tramp posted:

No existe, que tweet dice?

It was just a light blue jpg.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
C-SPAN is going to run three streams:

- one with coverage
- one with a camera inside a Republican caucus
- one with a camera inside a Democratic caucus

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
:lol: MSNBC shows a GOP caucus site that will time the supporter speeches using an egg timer and a bicycle horn.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Raskolnikov38 posted:

what are they covering exactly on the first one?

Hopefully callers :pray:

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Mr Hootington posted:

The best plan is to hope Iowa does the right thing. Trump wins both caucuses.

Possible! There's no printed ballot. You can vote for anyone at a caucus.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Uncle Wemus posted:

Why do we start with iowa

Joementum posted:

Their state party chair decided to distribute a copy of the rules to everyone who participated in the state, district, county, and precinct caucuses in 1972. They knew they were having the state one in May, so he asked the guy in charge of printing how long he'd need and, having only an old mimeograph machine he said he'd need a month of lead time for each level. Counting back from May, that put the precinct caucuses in January and that's how Iowa came first.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
Bernie rally in Iowa, circa 1959

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/694313594591318016

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

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Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
A cunning plan....

https://twitter.com/DanH_TIME/status/694315075784589312

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