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Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine
This constant talking over each other is farcical. Why can't they mute the mics of anyone not currently being asked a question?

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Bryter
Nov 6, 2011

but since we are small we may-
uh, we may be the losers
Hahaha they're going to ask Gerry what his biggest regret is, aren't they

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Gerry going in for the dad jokes

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

That was pretty dire

Marenghi
Oct 16, 2008

Don't trust the liberals,
they will betray you
Enda's handlers must have their head in their hands any time he's let speak for himself. He must have forgotten that two years ago he denied time and again that he parachuted his associate into a board position so he would be eligible for election into the Seanad (our upper parliament, comparable to the House of Lords in that it's members aren't directly elected by the people and it's powers are limited to delaying the passing of laws).

He seems to be taken on the training from Britain well enough.

Here he is answering separate questions with identical sound bytes, https://twitter.com/Junomaco/status/702278161665552384

a bit reminiscent of the way George Osbourne talks about growth http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-11627746

Bryter
Nov 6, 2011

but since we are small we may-
uh, we may be the losers

Marenghi posted:

a bit reminiscent of the way George Osbourne talks about growth http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-11627746

THESE STRIKES ARE WRONG AT A TIME WHEN NEGOTIATIONS ARE GOING ON

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

We close enough now to start creating hypothetical results?

I'm thinking Joan is going to lose her seat, Brendan Howlin will become leader with Labour at less than 10 seats, FF will reverse Tallaght a continuation of the FG/Labour coalition that will last 2 years tops until Martin gets the heave.

I think its possible if Enda gets a no confidence he might step aside and let Leo contest the next election as leader.

I'm not sure how how secure Gerry's place is either to be honest, I'm sure there are more than a few in SF that (based on debate performance) would like to square him off to retirement by the next election - maybe have him stand for president in 2018?

Sneaks McDevious
Jul 29, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
I'd view Gerry as being a tougher sell than McGuinness for president....

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Probably but it would give him something to do at least, I doubt Martin is going to go for another punt as he seems to have committed himself to trying to win in Derry (for the first time ever).

Not sure what other big names SF could put forward as is tbh

Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine
I agree - most likely outcome is FG minority gov with supply & confidence support from FF. FF are too smart to go into a proper coalition government as the minority party. FF will give it 18/24 months, just long enough for FG to make some more mistakes and some more memories of 2011 to die. Then they'll withdraw their support, and hope to become the largest party once again. Its a pretty logical strategy, I think.

FG will presumably ditch Enda at some stage well before theres a hint of any new election, they won't want to repeat his performance of this month. I'm not sure if it's too soon for an openly gay leader (Leo), given the elderly rural vote. But would like to be proved wrong on that. If I amn't, I think Simon Coveney might step up.

In regards to the other parties:

SDs I'd love to see pick up an extra seat or two but they'll probably remain at 3 seats. Might get another LAB or Independent Alliance defector at some stage though hopefully. Should also be in a better position funding/candidate wise by the next election.

SF have a big Gerry problem. His IRA past and vagueness with numbers definitely turn away a lot of undecided voters. Someone untainted, and more intellectually rigorous, like Pearse Doherty would really help move them along in their "legitimization" process. If Pearse (or even Mary Lou) was appointed early enough in the Dail term they could be a real force to be reckoned with in the next election.

Renua will hopefully be reduced to just Lucinda. Not sure what she'll do in a party-of-1. Rejoin FG at some stage once Leo becomes leader?

LAB...poor Labour. Full disclosure: I'm traditionally a Labour voter so they have my sympathies, but I've migrated my primary support to the SocDems (like so many others). If the party elders hadn't sold their souls in 2011 they'd almost certainly now be facing the prospect of being the largest party in the country. Shoulda listened to the Labour Youth members (and every political commentator)... I think Joan will go, and they'll be reduced to 10 odd seats. Not sure where they'll go from there. With the SDs and SF attacking them from either end of the Champagne Socialist and Working Class Socialist spectrum they're going to have a serious ongoing squeeze.

breadshaped
Apr 1, 2010


Soiled Meat
Labour should take this massive failing and reform as "New Labour"; a centre-left to left party. Not really though, I hope they lose people to SocDems and disappear like the PDs.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

If they had any sense Labour should revert to a No Coalitions stance like the 60s and focus on the youth wing to aim try to get a generation in play looking for an incremental come back, a Spring Tide is unlikely to happen again and their best bet might be in (re)integrating the SocDems if they struggle to mobilise support nationally - about the only thing Labour have going for them is their history and established grass roots network.

Sneaks McDevious
Jul 29, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
It's the election tomorrow....

happyhippy
Feb 21, 2005

Playing games, watching movies, owning goons. 'sup
Pillbug
Walking home from the shops yesterday, past a Cork City AAA office while they just finished a meeting.
90% of them looked like post apocalypse political students.

Forums Terrorist
Dec 8, 2011

it occurred to me today that gerry adams' twitter is pretty much exactly what you'd get if clarence BEEFTANK were a politician

StoneOfShame
Jul 28, 2013

This is the best kitchen ever.

Bedshaped posted:

Labour should take this massive failing and reform as "New Labour"; a centre-left to left party. Not really though, I hope they lose people to SocDems and disappear like the PDs.

Blair getting the Irish passport he's entitled to and becoming leader of Irish Labour would be the most amazing thing to ever happen, someone should suggest to him he's gone crazy enough at this point. Also this just gave me a chuckle http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2016/02/25/islanders-think-theyre-loving-great-voting-a-day-early/

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

If the Slab Murphy case wasn't enough of headache for SF it sounds like former head of the Provisional IRA Southern Command Dicke O'Neill is facing extradition from Spain to Ireland for charges of child sex abuse in the 90's - the media is not officially naming him but are dropping enough hints that anyone can piece it together easily.

Coohoolin
Aug 5, 2012

Oor Coohoolie.
I think every single Irish person in Aberdeen that I know is for Sinn Fein and they're getting a bit annoyed. I'm seeing lots of stuff like this being posted.

http://www.thesun.ie/irishsol/homepage/irishcolumnists/6954865/Oliver-Callan-Election-media-pops-its-Gerry-over-Sinn-Fein.html

Along with fresh republican memes, so I'm enjoying this election very much so far.

Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine
Anyone over the age of 8 who uses 'u' instead of 'you' needs to be shot, regardless of their political preference.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012


please do not post yer fine gael image macros in this thread.

StoneOfShame
Jul 28, 2013

This is the best kitchen ever.

kustomkarkommando posted:

If the Slab Murphy case wasn't enough of headache for SF it sounds like former head of the Provisional IRA Southern Command Dicke O'Neill is facing extradition from Spain to Ireland for charges of child sex abuse in the 90's - the media is not officially naming him but are dropping enough hints that anyone can piece it together easily.

You know its almost like SF is full of terrible scumbags and people seem to be completely forgetting this.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

There is a fair chunk of the Irish press hopelessly biased against SF, the indo and times, but complaining about it is kind of like moaning about Tory bias in the Telegraph - everyone knows and if you have even a fraction support for SF you just roll your eyes and ignore it.

Saying RTE is biased is a different issue of course and SF have been complaining that they haven't been getting enough coverage (they did this last election and when someone crunched the numbers it turned out they where given coverage beyond the broadcasters guidelines) and what coverage they have been getting is negative - I do think some of the questioning has bordered on hectoring and its very clear there has been a decision to push the Slab Murphy case and its related issues almost to the exception of other issues but honestly you put Gerry on a podium and this stuff is probably going to come up.

lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010

StoneOfShame posted:

You know its almost like SF is full of terrible scumbags and people seem to be completely forgetting this.

Yeah but the water charges...

StoneOfShame
Jul 28, 2013

This is the best kitchen ever.
I'd almost say SF need to decide what they want to be as a party the one they are in the North where they are still very linked with former armed Republicans or what they want to be in the South a decent left alternative, I dont think they can be both.

Coohoolin
Aug 5, 2012

Oor Coohoolie.
Who is Slab Murphy and what's the scandal?

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

I do think SF getting angry that people keep bringing up the IRA in a year when they have deliberately been attempting to position themselves as the one true inheritors of 1916 is p. rich though

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Coohoolin posted:

Who is Slab Murphy and what's the scandal?

Slab Murphy is the former head of the Provisional IRA's Northern Command and specifically influential in the volatile South Armagh area. After the troubles (and during) he switched focus to smuggling,fuel laundering and organised crime - a joint operation both sides of the border raided his property and found plastic bags filled with cash. He insisted he was but a humble farmer and is now bring done on tax evasion for failing to file tax returns for years on end. Gerry Adams said he was still a "good republican" regardless.

Oh and of course I'm forgetting that someone who testified in court that he was a senior member of the IRA during a civil case a while back was beaten to death and had a metal spike drive through their skull.

StoneOfShame
Jul 28, 2013

This is the best kitchen ever.

Coohoolin posted:

Who is Slab Murphy and what's the scandal?

Former IRA boss done for tax evasion under terrorist prosecution proceedings (they to do that because witness against him had been beaten before), guilty of massive amounts of tax fraud. The issue is Gerry stood by him despite how obviously guilty he was so folk say Gerry will stand by his old terrorist mates. Gerry and Marty owe Slab a lot though as he was instrumental in terrifying a lot of provos into following the cease fire and not joining the real IRA.

kustomkarkommando posted:

I do think SF getting angry that people keep bringing up the IRA in a year when they have deliberately been attempting to position themselves as the one true inheritors of 1916 is p. rich though

Yeah this tickles me every time.

Edit beaten

StoneOfShame fucked around with this message at 19:48 on Feb 25, 2016

Coohoolin
Aug 5, 2012

Oor Coohoolie.
Oh, that's interesting. Torn between old loyalties and modern politics.

Skull Servant
Oct 25, 2009

It is kinda annoying tbh because all it is doing is dead catting SF.

Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine
Their republican/terrorist credentials are the main reason I wouldn't vote for them. I think a lot of their left-wing policies are very agreeable, but I do worry that they'd just ditch them if they got into government. I fear that for Gerry and co the end goal of being in power is Republicanism, not Socialism.

In 5/10 years time though hopefully that'll be less of an issue as the old guard retires/dies off. Ideally I'd like to see a reasonably strong hard-left party (SF minus the Republicanism, amalgamated with AAA-PBP ), a strong centre-left party (LAB/SDs amalgamated) and a centre-right party (FF/FG amalgamated). But thats probably far too optimistic. If we're unlucky it'll still just be FF & FG playing pass the government football :(

happyhippy
Feb 21, 2005

Playing games, watching movies, owning goons. 'sup
Pillbug

Marenghi
Oct 16, 2008

Don't trust the liberals,
they will betray you

Good ole Bertie. In 2007 when people were raising concerns about the high level of debt being used to fuel a property bubble he called them pessimists and asked how they can do so much moaning without committing suicide.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfjGSfuSQpA

He managed to resign unharmed before the incoming global recession and tribunal findings over his corruption were complete.
If there were justice in this world he would have served time, instead he walked away a very, very wealthy man.

Sneaks McDevious
Jul 29, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
The Teflon Taoiseach

Skull Servant
Oct 25, 2009

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

But was biffo worse?

Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine
Biffo only had 3 years in which to mess things up. Bertie had 11. Given a similar length of time I'd be fairly confident in Biffo''s incompetence at least drawing the two level.

Sneaks McDevious
Jul 29, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
Biffo was inept and had a terrible image. Bertie had some weird X Factor

Bryter
Nov 6, 2011

but since we are small we may-
uh, we may be the losers

Blut posted:

I fear that for Gerry and co the end goal of being in power is Republicanism, not Socialism.

I think you're being charitable if you don't think they see power as an end in itself.

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happyhippy
Feb 21, 2005

Playing games, watching movies, owning goons. 'sup
Pillbug

Bryter posted:

I think you're being charitable if you don't think they see power as an end in itself.

I think you're being charitable they have thought past 'put up Irish flag at Stormount, change money back to punt, change road signs to irish, force kids to learn irish in primary school'.

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