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Everything I've seen would point towards another election. But Paddypower still has no second election this year as the most likely outcome. quote:Will There Be A 2nd General Election in 2016? And an FG Minority government being the most likely one in place on January 1st 2017: quote:Government On 1st January 2017 (decimal odds) I know the bookies are generally regarded as being more reliable than polls these days, so this is quite interesting. Are FF just being needlessly difficult before they eventually give in and support an FG minority?
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Apr 14, 2016 18:19
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Cabinet posted:Have there been any polls done lately? I'm wondering how this is impacting FF and FG. Can hardly be good for either of them. FF are supposedly showing an increase in support in some small scale internal polls they've carried out. Which is probably why they're persisting with this will-they, won't-they month long debacle. God knows why the electorate would observe the last month and decide what the country needs is more of FF/FG, but there you have it. If another election happened tomorrow predictions are independents would lose out to FF/FG due to A) independents having no election budget and B) FF/FG playing the "if you don't vote for us we'll never have a stable government" card. Despite the only reason we don't currently have a government being FF/FG intransigence.
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Apr 14, 2016 20:46
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I hope for Labour's sake they don't go back into government with FG, they'll be wiped out in the next election if they do. If they agreed to abstain in votes of confidence (along with FF) though it would help bring down FG's required number of TDs to govern to 54, that might be a good compromise. 50 FG + Zappatone + Lowry + 2 others INDs (or the Greens possibly?) would reduce the required level of pork a little at least. Speaking of pork; in somewhat unsurprising but disappointing news it looks like the independents are all channeling their inner Healy-Rae and trying to get ridiculous demands met in exchange for their support: quote:Independents hold nation to €13bn ransom. Astonishing 'pork-barrel' list of demands exposed - http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/independents-hold-nation-to-13bn-ransom-34633806.html Also disappointingly, those previously mentioned internal FF polls have been confirmed by a public Sunday Times Poll: quote:FF - 26% (+4) I'd love to know whos opinion of FF has improved in the past month.... I guess all the fearmongering about "vote for us for stability" is working in their favour.
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Apr 17, 2016 13:58
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Cabinet posted:I will never not laugh at FF suddenly being against water charges when they were the first ones who wanted to introduce them under Cowen. Now they are suddenly the champions of the water movement. Bullshit. If the polls are to be believed though their intransigence is winning them support. After a new election they'll probably be the biggest party in the country again... We won't have even managed to make it a decade out from the crash before an FF recovery.
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Apr 24, 2016 20:38
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Looks like negotiations are either "about to fail with a new election imminent" or "heading towards a successful end-stage" depending on which article one reads. I guess the media are as in the dark as the rest of us. On the 'redline subject' of Irish Water, it does seem likely to be suspended regardless of the outcome (either a new election or FF reaching an agreement with FG). What does the thread think will happen to those 61% of households that have already paid it if it is indeed suspended? A tax credit? Not giving any sort of refund seems like it may be politically painful, given most of those households are probably middle/upper income ones who vote. And doing nothing would set a dangerous precedent on the benefits of refusing to pay a tax.
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Apr 25, 2016 22:30
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Promising a credit for the new system when its implemented in 3 years time or whatever, then completely forgetting about it when in 3 years time it proves still politically unpalatable to implement water charges and the whole idea is shelved, would be a suitably FF policy I guess. "well you see, you paid water charges under the FG government in 2015 - FF has been against such things for years. Its FG who conned you out of your money really".
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Apr 26, 2016 00:47
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I can't see it doing much damage to SF support, given their typical working class nationalistic voter profile. And given the general Irish lack of interest in the whole 'race' thing on top of that. It does provide more ammo for the calls for his retirement though, which is probably a net positive for SF overall.
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May 2, 2016 15:08
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Bedshaped posted:
I don't think Irish people are particularly racist. Irish people tend to be quite ignorant of race because of the homogeneity, but they lack the virulent racism you find many places elsewhere in the world. The 'racism' of older Irish people is just down to a lack of experience with other races. They wouldn't see anything wrong with making jokes about black people for example because they might have gone their whole life without meeting one - its a completely abstract concept to them. I think thats probably the case with Gerry here. If you spend time in the deep south in the US, or South Africa, or anywhere with real actual racial problems you'll see there's a massive difference. In places with racial tensions the racism has a very severe undertone of hatred/fear rather than ignorance, which makes it a lot more sinister. And harder to fix.
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May 2, 2016 17:21
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forkboy84 posted:Is he a Catholic? Because I'm pretty sure the Pope has staked out a clear position on man-made climate change. Is Danny Healy-Rae harbouring heretical views? Someone should ask him to clarify. This would be fantastic. I unfortunately doubt Healy-Rae is even coming at this from a strict religious point of view, instead more than likely its just one of sheer godawful ignorance. The people of Kerry have a lot to answer for.
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May 4, 2016 23:23
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echomadman posted:Irish people are pretty racist, but the older generations can be hilariously racist. My Gran-aunt answered the door to some african immigrant christian evangelical types back in the 90s when black people were even rarer in Ireland. Thats hilarious, but I'd still say that proves my ignorance point more than anything else. I doubt your grand-aunt was harboring a secret severe hatred of black people that was a major part of her life, it was probably just that she didn't really know anything about them so had odd old misconceptions when meeting one. Whereas if you'd had a grand-aunt from Alabama or Johannesburg she probably would literally have wanted to eradicate black people from her country, and would have considered them a sub-human species not worth deigning to talk to. Its the difference from making a vaguely racist comment on your doorstep vs setting the guard dogs on the nice African man and laughing as they tear into him, Monty Burns style.
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May 5, 2016 23:47
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Looks like PBP are winning a few seats up North:quote:Gerry Carroll of the People Before Profit Alliance has been elected to Stormont after topping the poll in west Belfast. I wonder if they'll start to undermine SF from the hard left economically, as republicanism/unionism fade away as issues somewhat. That'd be an interesting development.
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May 6, 2016 17:47
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Mary Mitchell O’Connor with a ministerial position... oh dear.
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May 6, 2016 20:21
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Cabinet posted:Still love how Renua we're entirely wiped out. All they have is like 10 local council seats I believe. With regressive social and regressive economic policies I think they ticked every awful option possible. That was one outcome of the election that made a lot of people quite happy, I think. A small victory for progress in Ireland.
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May 8, 2016 23:04
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If Labour make a big push for a referendum on the 8th I think it'll get interesting. FF/FG both seem to be coming around to the realization that its a big issue for people under 40. And for lots of women of all ages. Any TDs that vote against a motion on it will likely have a lot of questions to answer at the next election. Especially any in a remotely urban area.
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May 9, 2016 18:48
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Bedshaped posted:I don't think Labour are going to push it at all and, unlike gay marriage and even though it's a popular movement, abortion isn't going to be a hill people want to die on. I'm possibly being optimistic. It's just that I've recently noticed a lot of politicians who are obviously against repealing the 8th when being asked for their opinion on the matter are giving 'No comment' answers instead of negative answers. Which would imply they know its a politically unpopular stance. And I'm fairly confident that most Irish politicians will just go with the flow on issues they feel are large vote winners/losers, even if they're personally against them. I can see "new" Labour pushing it as a way to differentiate themselves from their erstwhile allies FG. And as a way of giving them purpose (and media exposure) in opposition. But a lot of this will probably come down to who the new Labour leader is. Kelly would be a disaster, on many many levels. Such a shame Aodhán Ó Ríordáin wasn't re-elected.
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May 10, 2016 18:08
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From what I've heard Howlin doesn't particularly want the leadership (or is at least playing things as so), but hes being pressured to go for it by the "Kelly is insane and will destroy the party" wing. I think Howlin would definitely be a safe pair of hands, but would be uninspiring. LAB would probably sit around where they are under him, maybe tick slightly upwards and reclaim 3-5 seats in another election. Kelly would either destroy the party, or reinvigorate it. He's passionate enough to push it, but I'm not sure in which direction...
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May 10, 2016 18:51
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That's a decent summation of things by kustomkarkommando. Kelly is intelligent, and outspoken, and clearly cares about certain issues. But he also doesn't even try to hide his lust for power under the usual veneer of "I'm doing this for my constituents/out of principle/whatever". Which combined with a gigantic ego means hes loathed by a large number of people. Think of him as a younger, Tipperary, Dick Cheney. Some background cringe stuff: http://www.breakingnews.ie/discover/the-alan-kelly-rap-from-2009-has-been-found-and-youre-in-for-a-treat-718970.html http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/rightcol/alan-kelly-power-is-a-drug-it-suits-me-34410065.html Burton burning him very publicly over the second of the above, which was very amusing: http://www.independent.ie/irish-new...t-34421237.html And a decent summary of things in one JPG, if you're feeling lazy: http://www.broadsheet.ie/2016/02/04/the-world-is-yours/
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May 10, 2016 22:25
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The most shocking figure in those polls is that 7% of adults think Simon Harris should be Taoiseach. A 29 year old who has never had a job other than politician. Wherefore art thou technocrat government?
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Aug 1, 2016 13:46
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Entropy238 posted:Rent levels are completely hosed in Dublin at the moment, minimum you'll pay for a three bed in and around the city centre that isn't a complete kip is around 600 pp, prolly 500/550 a bit further out. Its more convenient, but on-campus is very pricey even by Dublin standards. €10,400 for 11 months Sept->August in UCD appears to be going the rate last year. Almost 950eur a month, not including utilities, is fairly hefty.
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Aug 15, 2016 15:10
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Entropy238 posted:Jesus Christ. God forbid that a university in Ireland should run its accommodation services for the benefit of its students rather than to make a few bob. Between rent, utilities, living costs and the ever-increasing fees I can only imagine how much debt a rural student living in Dublin these days comes out the end of a now fairly standard 4 year undergrad +1 year postgrad college experience with. 5 years of all of that must have people almost approaching American levels of student debt. Then they get to face the joy of the destroyed under 25s welfare rates if they can't get a job. It makes me rather glad to have gone to uni before the crisis.
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Aug 15, 2016 21:50
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The government is protesting very loudly about the evils of this to keep our American MNCs happy but they must be rubbing their hands gleefully in private. €13bn is what, a little under 10% of the national debt (or almost 25% of the bank bailout) wiped out in one-go?
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Aug 30, 2016 16:03
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I think Murphy&Shorthall's more left-wing economic positions were always in conflict with Donnelly. I know support for the LUAS drivers was an issue, and Apple's tax this week is being mentioned as being the straw that broke the camel's back. It's a shame, because I think without Donnelly dragging the SDs slightly to the middle they may fall gradually into the general-left-wing milieu. Where they'll struggle for attention/support against the wide variety of parties already there. I don't think he'll remain as a true independent after tasting the national stage in the last election. I'd wager hes more likely to join the IA than FF, though.
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Sep 5, 2016 21:41
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That would be rather opportune timing wouldn't it? What're the odds... There are some interesting backroom dealings going on right now I'd wager.
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Sep 8, 2016 17:08
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Opportune timing for FG, I meant. They can play hardball with Halligan knowing they have a possible replacement in the wings. For Donnelly, yeah its a bit more questionable. Hes clearly very interested in getting into government, but if it falls in the short/medium-term will it have a negative effect on his standing in Wicklow? Harris already hoovers up a lot of the pro-government support in Greystones, I'm not sure theres room for a second "government" TD there.
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Sep 9, 2016 13:42
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julian assflange posted:Why are they trying to attract people back? Aside from the health service there aren't too many labour shortages. Also, where will these people live? So that when FG are canvassing next they can tell older voters whos children have had to emigrate that FG are now doing their best to bring the children home. It's completely ridiculous on a practical level of course, but you can't deny theres some cold hard electoral logic behind it. The inequality of a two tier tax system, a lack of jobs, a lack of available suitable housing...why let these mere "facts" get in the way of a good vote winning exercise for FG?
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Sep 27, 2016 17:29
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Savings Clown posted:So I've been away from Ireland for a few years now, has any substantial difference emerged between FG and FF? FF have been moving to the left a bit to try and take SD/LAB/SF voters and differentiate themselves from FG's centre-right austerity credentials. They're now backing the introduction of a Universal Basic Income, for example. I think the narrative that FG's "economic recovery" has been confined to the upper middle class is a powerful one, and is a large reason behind FF's uptick in polling.
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Feb 21, 2017 15:46
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Yeah to be fair for all Ireland's problems our politicians are, by and large, good people. There are serious problems with low/mid level corruption, and professional ignorance amongst ministers, but very few are downright evil. The same can't be said for the the more extreme Tories in the UK or the most egregious Republicans in the US. I'll take Enda Kenny's bumbling country bumpkinness over Theresa May or Mike Pence any day.
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Feb 22, 2017 16:21
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lemonadesweetheart posted:While they may not be at the same level as Theresa May, Pol Pot or Idi Amin, they are still pretty loving bad and I would never call them good people. Our cultural/political neighbours in the democratic Anglosphere are probably a slighter more useful comparative yardstick than dictators in Africa 40 years ago. Given that, having the 'least bad option' is something worth appreciating from time to time.
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Feb 22, 2017 17:31
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khwarezm posted:Point is, Ireland's not bad at all on the whole, even if the politicians are chancers I always get the feeling there's a greater understanding that certain aspects of the welfare state aren't to be touched than in other parts of the Anglosophere. I think thats the core thing about Irish politicians. Their thinking process seems to be, for the most part, "1. How do I enrich/better myself and 2. It'd be nice if my constituents did well too I guess - because thats also good for me in the medium/long term". Which isn't great obviously. But its a hell of a lot better than the insane dogmatic lets gently caress over the poor / gently caress over the immigrants / gently caress over the non religious / etc actions you get from politicians in the rest of the Anglosphere. Irish politicians might not be good people in a Mother Theresa vein. But they're definitely by and large good people when compared to other politicians. Captain Gordon posted:That said, there is no way in hell I would be able to earn any decent money or afford a house or even a car working an IT job in Ireland. I would probably be a wage-slave for the rest of my life to some celtic tiger era cuck manager that doesnt have an ounce of competence about them, but got the job because they know someone in the org (which is, coincidentally, how our politics work). No, gently caress that, I would rather have the Orange Pissbaby as my president (as long as he doesn't deport me, lol)! In general working life is much, much better for most people in Ireland than it would be in the US. At least in Ireland your boss can't fire you for no reason, you get your 29 days a year of leave at a minimum, if you get fired there's a functional welfare system etc. Not to mention things like healthcare and 3rd level education costs in the US that screw lower earners. Wage-slavery is definitely far more of a problem in the US. If you're an upper middle class professional you might be better off in California. But for anyone lower middle class, or god forbid working class, they're much better off in Ireland. Its not a Scandinavian level Social Democracy yet, but its a hell of a lot further along that road than the US or the UK thankfully.
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Feb 24, 2017 16:13
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Great post, thanks. The DUP are such an awful party on every level. Is there any prospect of them losing support moving forward? How do young unionists generally fall in their party support? I can't imagine the DUP's hardcore social conservatism goes down too well with the under 35s?
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Feb 27, 2017 12:22
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kustomkarkommando posted:Demographically the DUP tends to have younger voters than than the UUP [/snip] Ah, interesting. That does sound like (tentative) progress at least, thats good to hear. Thanks. The TUV Halloween poster is hilarious. A nice original slogan too.
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Feb 28, 2017 18:46
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Southpaugh posted:Ireland swallowed the neo-liberal pill in a big way during the late 90s. The spin and circumstances surrounding public bus services are because the government desperately wants to privatise Dublin bus, so all those fat profits can go to them and their mates. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, who have very little representation in the city see Dublin as a big monopoly board to be divvied up and packaged off to multinationals and other interests. The culture of the city of Dublin is being ruined in favour of manipulating the property market and maximising profits. FG&FF combined have 20 of the 44 Dublin TDs. I'd hardly call that "very little representation in the city".
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Mar 1, 2017 14:27
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KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:Haha that's loving nuts, I work a white-collar job in the US and get 2 weeks, which is pretty standard. Yeah, thats one of the reasons I think most people other than the poster I quoted would agree the US is far more "rat race-y" than Ireland (or most of the rest of Europe). 10 days a year of leave (which not all people even get) is horrific. I honestly don't know how anyone could live any sort of life on that - how do you go on holidays / visit family / go to weddings etc? 30ish days of leave , with more days for seniority often accruing, is pretty standard in Europe. For anyone with middle class levels of disposable income that allows for the use of days days here and there for family events or weddings, 2 or 3 long-weekend city breaks a year, plus one big 2 or 3 week long long-haul holiday a year. Southpaugh posted:Between the two of them, they have less than half the representation in the city, and they change seats regularly, Dublin is hardly a FF/FG heartland. This is the lowest proportion of seats the two have held in Dublin. And even at this, they still far, far outstrip any other parties in the capital. SF are the next nearest party with only 7 TDs, currently. As such, its pretty disingenuous to claim " Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, who have very little representation in Dublin" or "Dublin is hardly a FF/FG heartland." FF especially have always done well in Dublin. In 2002 they had 21 TDs elected from Dublin alone - a huge plurality of the vote. Dublin people are just as guilty as their rural brethren in voting for the axis of evil.
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Mar 2, 2017 13:59
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If NI was a normal functioning state SF, SDLP and the UUP would now have enough seats between them to form a governing majority and keep the crazy DUP fundamentalists out. One day maybe...
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Mar 4, 2017 01:11
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happyhippy posted:We call you Mexicans, coz you are south of the border. One of the random things I missed most after moving back to Ireland from living in America was Mexican food. Thankfully its really taken off in Dublin in the last 5 years, and theres loads of decent places around now. I hope you Nordies are experiencing the same.
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Mar 5, 2017 13:01
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I wouldn't write off Unionism either, simply because I don't think theres a viable alternative is for N.I. Independence? Without the yearly £7.5bn a year contribution from the British exchequer an independent N.I. state would either have a massive drop in quality of life, or very quickly go bankrupt. Joining the Republic? Even if a majority of voters in N.I. somehow voted for it, theres no way a majority in the South will once the fiscal contribution thats required to pay for it is explained to them. I think that for as long as Unionism is by far the best economic policy for N.I. the Unionist parties will have a reasonable support base.
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Mar 7, 2017 16:56
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WeAreTheRomans posted:There's certainly a contingent in the South that will be dissuaded by the economic argument, but if it actually goes to referendum it will become a very emotive/nationalistic issue and I actually see the current 65% support going up rather than down. I also think that ROI can negotiate structural funding for reunification, like German reunification in 1990, especially given Ireland's playing ball with the Troika so obediently. Might also be aided by Kenny having a go as EC President I'd be shocked if that 65% general support in the South (and its as low as 40% in other major polls in the last 24 months) went up once its explained that every adult in the country is going to personally have to contribute €3000 a year towards N.I. for the foreseeable future. Money motivates people a hell of a lot more that vague theoretical nationalistic issues when it comes down to it. Any recent polls on the issue that have asked "Would you be in favour or against a united Ireland if it meant you would have to pay more tax" generally only get about 30% support as is down South, and that's before any negative campaigning that explains the exact financial costs. And thats also assuming the militant hardline Unionists go along quietly, which I don't think they would. Good luck explaining the first Garda killed in action to the public down South. EU structural funding for a reunification would be nice though, I'll give you that. But I don't think it would be guaranteed in advance, so the above economic and security arguments would help a rejection in any unification referendum in the South. Plus theres the whole only roughly 25% of Nordies being in favour of it these days, thats another large obstacle. Despite the wishes of the border county Republican dinosaurs the idea is fairly dead for the foreseeable future.
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Mar 7, 2017 17:30
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Entropy238 posted:Where does the €3000 a year figure come from? Just curious. £7.5bn is the recent average of the UK's subvention to N.I. per annum. Convert that to euros, then divide by the total number of adults in the RoI. kustomkarkommando posted:Do a South Africa and switch the second verse of amhran na bhfiann to the sash This and lemonadesweetheart's Ulsterized tricolour would both be hilarious outcomes. @julian assflange the majority in the South outside of the border counties aren't in favour of unification. Which always seems to annoy the more Republican Nordies quite a lot, amusingly. I remember many a Nordie in college having their mind blown when they discussed the issue with middle class Southerners for the first time and discovered nobody in the room was in favour of taking on the burden of N.I., much to the Nordies' horror/surprise. @WeAreTheRomans I just don't see any big parties or the media down South putting in that required push to support it, though. SF are the only ones properly in favour. FF would be tepid at best these days, and I think the other parties would play the fiscal responsibility card pretty hard. The media is generally reliably centre-right down here, and fairly in-line with FG, so would be lobbying heavily against it if anything.
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Mar 7, 2017 18:39
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I'd be in favour of giving a vote to recent emigrants (ie less than 12/24 months), who're somewhat likely to return home in the near future. I'd actually be in favour of them getting a small Dail constituency too - maybe a 2 or 3 seater. But its a bit ridiculous giving it to people who've been gone for decades and are likely never coming home. Or who have never lived in Ireland. We'd end up in a situation with millions of those annoying Irish-American "UP THE RA" types getting to ignorantly cast votes without suffering the consequences. I'll be curious to see how polls show the public thinks about it.
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Mar 13, 2017 00:52
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kustomkarkommando posted:New theoretical date for Kenny announcing his resignation is sometime after the EPP meeting in Wicklow over the 11th-12th. Or possibly when the ice caps melt or everyone has simply forgotten he exists. Whichever comes first. Enda's continual "ah, I'll be gone in a few weeks" messages are great. There's always something new just over the horizon that he has to stay on for. As both Leo and Coveney are fairly despicable, I can't help but find this hilarious as it no doubt is driving them both up the wall. I hope Coveney gets it, though. Hes at least open in his conservatism. And somewhat to the left of Leo economically. I think Leo's hard right Thatcherite views, packaged in a surface level millennial friendly "I'm gay and a minority, I'm cool and hip!" package is far more dangerous due to its deceptiveness.
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May 7, 2017 16:58
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