SATURDAY FEB 20, NV DEM 2PM ET, SC GOP 7PM ET: What about the Vatican wall?

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Joementum: May 23, 2004; jesus christ

On Saturday, February 20 the Democratic party will hold precinct viability caucuses in the state of Nevada, beginning at 11am local time (Pacific) with voting beginning at noon. On the same day, the Republican primary in South Carolina is happening, with polls open from 7am to 7pm local time (Eastern).

WHERE CAN I WATCH THIS?

http://www.c-span.org/ will have coverage throughout the night

In addition, these streaming sites often show the cable networks, which will be covering it.

http://www.livenewschat.eu/
http://www.stream2watch.co/live-tv/us/
http://www.hulkusc.com/

Please suggest in the thread any other streams.

RESULTS

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/nevada

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/south-carolina

https://nvcaucuses.com/

http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/

Please suggest other sources.

IRC

https://client00.chat.mibbit.com/?server=EU.synirc.net%3A%2B7001&channel=%23Poligoon

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

, Secretary of State
, Senator from Vermont

DEMOCRATIC PROCESS

Voters must be a resident of Nevada and a registered member of the Democratic Party. You can register or switch registration at the precinct. You will not need to show ID.

Unlike in Iowa where the viability threshold was set at 15%, a variable threshold is set by the party at the beginning of the day. It's not expected that this will matter, except perhaps for an "uncommitted" group. There's no printed ballot at (most) precinct caucuses, so there might even be a few O'Malley holdouts.

During the caucus, a supporter of each candidate may give a short nominating speech. After the speeches, voting is conducted by having supporters of each candidate stand in a different corner of the room. You may also choose to stand with "uncomitted" people as a group. Supporters are then counted. Any group with less than the viability threshold percentage of the total participants in the caucus is declared non-viable and those supporters may choose to stand with a different group. During this choosing, members of the viable groups have an opportunity to lobby and entice the non-viable supporters to join them, typically through yelling and chants. The count is then conducted again until all groups are viable.

NOTE: Estimates will, of course, be made by media outlets as well as by the campaigns of the presidential contenders themselves as to how many of Nevada's 43 National Convention delegates each presidential contender is likely to be ultimately be receiving as a result of the Nevada caucuses but, of course, since no National Convention delegates are actually being chosen by these caucuses, all such estimates will almost certainly, come the District Conventions in April and the State Convention in June, be wrong!!

At each caucus, each presidential contender who fails to meet the viability threshold in the initial balloting after a period of discussion will be considered "non-viable" and all supporters of such "non-viable" presidential contenders will then be required to join in the support of presidential contenders who have remained "viable". To determine the viability of a presidential contender, multiply the number of eligible caucus attendees by the percentages below and round to the nearest whole number. This is the minimum number of delegates needed for the contender to remain viable.

Here's the full delegate selection plan. My advice is to not try to understand it. The number of delegates from each precinct caucus will be transmitted to the state party which will announce which candidates have won which of the 1,406 delegates to the county conventions.

In addition to the 35 delegates which will later be assigned at the district and state conventions, there are 8 party leader delegates who will attend the national convention.

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES

Many of these people are no longer actively seeking the nomination, but their names will appear on the primary ballot as they did not drop out prior to the ballot printing deadline in late December. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina dropped out the day before that deadline.

, Governor of Florida
, Neurosurgeon
, Governor of New Jersey
, Senator from Texas
, former CEO of HP
Jim Gilmore, Governor of Virginia
, Governor of Arkansas
, Governor of Ohio
George Pataki, Governor of New York
, Senator from Kentucky
, Senator from Florida
, Senator from Pennsylvania
, Constitutionally Eligible

REPUBLICAN PROCESS

21 district delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the state's 7 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates and the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district will receive all 3 of that district's National Convention delegates.

Each congressional district delegate ... shall be bound during the first ballot at the convention to the presidential candidate who received the greatest number of votes .... If the candidate who received the greatest number of votes in that particular delegate�s home district is not placed in nomination, a delegate must then be bound to the congressional district's second or third place finisher in the presidential preference primary, respectively. If none of the top three finishers in the congressional district presidential preference primary are placed in nomination, delegates shall be unbound.

29 (10 base at-large delegates plus 16 bonus delegates plus 3 RNC delegates) at-large delegates are to be allocated to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in the primary statewide.

Each delegate-at-large shall be bound for the first ballot to the candidate who received the largest number of votes statewide in the presidential preference primary. If the candidate who receives the greatest number of statewide votes in the presidential preference primary is not placed in nomination, a delegate must then be bound to the state's second or third place finisher in the presidential preference primary, respectively. If none of the top three finishers in the statewide presidential preference primary are placed in nomination, delegates shall be unbound.

Again, note that news networks will fudge this math early on and likely award all 50 of the state's delegates to the candidate who wins the overall state vote. This is likely how it will turn out in the end, but if the vote is close between the first and second place candidate it is possible that the second place candidate picks up some of the delegates from a congressional district where they happened to out poll the frontrunner. We won't know for sure until the Secretary of State certifies the vote, likely on Sunday or Monday.

http://i.imgur.com/qq8HtKe.gifv

Joementum has issued a correction as of 22:34 on Feb 20, 2016

# ? Feb 19, 2016 18:47

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 7, 2024 15:39

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

https://twitter.com/mviser/status/700726535653879808?ref_src=twsrc

"Donald, we're coming."

# ? Feb 19, 2016 18:50

Baloogan: Dec 5, 2004; Fun Shoe

donald im cumming

# ? Feb 19, 2016 18:52

InsanityIsCrazy: Jan 25, 2003; by Lowtax

I can't see this

without thinking of this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvehOBxzwtY&t=38s

# ? Feb 19, 2016 18:52

logikv9: Mar 5, 2009; Ham Wrangler

Losers of the caucuses are ritually dismembered and displayed in the front lobby of the top Vegas casinos.

# ? Feb 19, 2016 18:54

mr. mephistopheles: Dec 2, 2009

I'll be precinct captaining in Nevada tomorrow so I'll try to live report. My precinct is pretty affluent so I expect it to go Hillary but I'm going to do my best to sway undecideds.

# ? Feb 19, 2016 18:54

Pander: Oct 9, 2007; Fear is the glue that holds society together. It's what makes people suppress their worst impulses. Fear is power.

And at the end of fear, oblivion.

mr. mephistopheles posted:

I'll be precinct captaining in Nevada tomorrow so I'll try to live report. My precinct is pretty affluent so I expect it to go Hillary but I'm going to do my best to sway undecideds.

No more training do you require. Already know you, that which you need. One thing remains: Hillary. You must defeat Hillary!

(seriously good luck, sounds like a hell of an interesting day)

# ? Feb 19, 2016 18:57

railroad terror: Jul 2, 2007; choo choo

Baloogan posted:

donald im cumming

# ? Feb 19, 2016 19:02

Son of Thunderbeast: Sep 21, 2002

# ? Feb 19, 2016 19:10

Mr Hootington: Jul 24, 2008; I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Can't wait to watch the results roll on in. Thank goodness I have not life to get in the way.

# ? Feb 19, 2016 19:12

Joementum: May 23, 2004; jesus christ

My theory that he's been wearing the same suit jacket for months, confirmed.

https://twitter.com/ElizLanders/status/700747331331751937

# ? Feb 19, 2016 19:26

mike12345: Jul 14, 2008; "Whether the Earth was created in 7 days, or 7 actual eras, I'm not sure we'll ever be able to answer that. It's one of the great mysteries."

Hillary will clobber Bernie. Dem thread will go nucular.

# ? Feb 19, 2016 19:27

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

Joementum posted:

My theory that he's been wearing the same suit jacket for months, confirmed.

https://twitter.com/ElizLanders/status/700747331331751937

he is really good at living up to my idea of what he's like

# ? Feb 19, 2016 19:28

mr. mephistopheles: Dec 2, 2009

Joementum posted:

My theory that he's been wearing the same suit jacket for months, confirmed.

https://twitter.com/ElizLanders/status/700747331331751937

One week I wore the same pants to work every day. I find Bernie relateable.

# ? Feb 19, 2016 19:36

Combed Thunderclap: Jan 4, 2011

mike12345 posted:

Hillary will clobber Bernie. Dem thread will go nucular.

On the bright side: nuclear fusion breakthrough at last :science:

# ? Feb 19, 2016 20:22

Dr Dracula: Oct 30, 2015; by Nyc_Tattoo; Grimey Drawer

Donald, I'm coming for you.

# ? Feb 19, 2016 21:25

Peel: Dec 3, 2007

Best possible SC result: Trump > Cruz > Kasich > Bush > Rubio. Jeb can't justify dropping out if he beats Rubio again, Kasich can't justify dropping out if he beats Rubio and Bush again.

Anyone Rubio beats is in trouble, though only Bush and Kasich are likely to drop out immediately.

# ? Feb 19, 2016 22:02

Warcabbit: Apr 26, 2008; Wedge Regret

I think the best possible result is Bush > Cruz > Trump > Kasich > Rubio. Think of the chaos!

# ? Feb 19, 2016 22:05

Thump!: Nov 25, 2007; Look, fat, here's the fact, Kulak!

Bernie gon' win it, in NV and in SC tomorrow, somehow. :colbert:

Also, Gilmore and Patacki :smith:

# ? Feb 19, 2016 22:10

mr. mephistopheles: Dec 2, 2009

Peel posted:

Best possible SC result: Trump > Cruz > Kasich > Bush > Rubio. Jeb can't justify dropping out if he beats Rubio again, Kasich can't justify dropping out if he beats Rubio and Bush again.

Anyone Rubio beats is in trouble, though only Bush and Kasich are likely to drop out immediately.

Bush owes way too many people to drop out before the convention.

# ? Feb 19, 2016 22:14

Peel: Dec 3, 2007

I can see him limping to Super Tuesday but surely no further.

There'll come a point where Bush and Kasich buy themselves more favours dropping out than staying in. Either could come back to challenge Clinton in 2020 or whoever in 2024.

# ? Feb 19, 2016 22:19

mr. mephistopheles: Dec 2, 2009

How would they challenge someone who isn't even going to get the Democratic nomination?

# ? Feb 19, 2016 22:20

Peel: Dec 3, 2007

I'm assuming Sanders is shot sometime in his first term.

# ? Feb 19, 2016 22:21

Thump!: Nov 25, 2007; Look, fat, here's the fact, Kulak!

Peel posted:

I'm assuming Sanders is shot sometime in his first term.

I mean, Killer Mike would also make a pretty good POTUS, and I'm sure that Bernie would gladly give his life for America.

# ? Feb 19, 2016 22:22

mr. mephistopheles: Dec 2, 2009

Peel posted:

I'm assuming Sanders is shot sometime in his first term.

Nominating Chelsea Clinton as his VP would be a pretty bold move for a bold person, I suppose.

# ? Feb 19, 2016 22:26

Mystery Goomba: Jun 4, 2011

I think Trump > Rubio > Cruz > Bush > Kasich > Carson is the most likely scenario in SC, with Trump getting sub-30%. I'll keep track of any other predictions if anyone else wants bragging rights for maybe being correct.
Clinton is obviously going to win NV so there's that.

# ? Feb 19, 2016 22:36

Spiffster: Oct 7, 2009; I'm good... I Haven't slept for a solid 83 hours, but yeah... I'm good...; Lipstick Apathy

Here for Bernie, staying for the hilarity in the GOP.

# ? Feb 19, 2016 23:29

Son of Thunderbeast: Sep 21, 2002

Mystery Goomba posted:

Clinton is obviously going to win NV so there's that.

It's not obvious at all, actually.

South Carolina I'll definitely give you. The question with SC is more about how narrow Bern can make the loss margin. But Nevada? I have no idea who will win, but I do know that Clinton's win isn't guaranteed.

# ? Feb 19, 2016 23:50

Minsky: May 23, 2001

Man poor Jeb!. It looks like he's trying to use his whole body as leverage to lift his cheeks enough to put on a smile for the camera, but this is all he can muster anymore in the wake of Hurricane Trump

# ? Feb 20, 2016 00:02

Son of Thunderbeast: Sep 21, 2002

Minsky posted:

Man poor Jeb!. It looks like he's trying to use his whole body as leverage to lift his cheeks enough to put on a smile for the camera, but this is all he can muster anymore in the wake of Hurricane Trump

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yHckRTkcZg

# ? Feb 20, 2016 00:41

Mr Hootington: Jul 24, 2008; I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Son of Thunderbeast posted:

It's not obvious at all, actually.

South Carolina I'll definitely give you. The question with SC is more about how narrow Bern can make the loss margin. But Nevada? I have no idea who will win, but I do know that Clinton's win isn't guaranteed.

Yeah this is the thing. If Bernie can take NV and cut his lose in SC to +10 Hillary that could be seen as a win for him. Only because he is expected to lose by +20 or something.

Or it shows us how weak Clinton is and I'm voting Trump in the general so I'm not rounded up and placed into a camp.

# ? Feb 20, 2016 00:55

oystertoadfish: Jun 17, 2003

some guy on daily kos elections said some things about SC's congressional districts which i'm assuming are based on reality

JacobNC on Daily Kos Elections posted:

The more moderate GOP strength is concentrated in SC-01. Romney won it despite losing the state by 13, so I think Rubio could win there.

Also, in 2008, McCain beat Huckabee in the current SC-01 by almost 30 points, while beating Huckabee by only 3 statewide. McCain beat Bush there in 2000, while losing the state by double digits.

My prediction: The mainstream Republicans (Bush, Rubio) will do best along the coast (Charleston & Hilton Head), where Republicans are wealthier, more educated and a large portion of them are from northern states. Myrtle Beach is an exception.

Trump will do best in smaller towns and more rural areas where voters are more racially polarized. Florence, Orangeburg, Sumter, Aiken, etc. Gingrich made strong appeals to racism in 2012 and defeated Romney in these areas by 20-30 points. Also, George W. Bush crushed McCain there in 2000 with the �black baby" whisper campaign.

Cruz probably does best upstate where there are more hardcore conservatives.

Of course, Trump could win all of these places if his margin is large enough. This is just where I think each candidate�s strongest areas will be.

basically, SC-01 has been double digit % points better for establishment republicans than the state as a whole in recent primaries

most polls seem to be seeing a large trump lead but some of them don't. most have been showing cruz dropping and rubio rising, at least one showed cruz nearly tied with trump for first. i'm guessing it's trump > cruz > rubio > bush > kasich, but 3-5 are close enough that nobody drops out immediately. but i dunno

edit: as far as the district-by-district breakdown i'd say that if trump performs at the higher end of current polling he'd be likely to sweep the state, since SC-01's establishment vote would probably get split pretty bad. if trump's in the mid-20%s then cruz probably gets a few rural districts and rubio might get 01. but actual triads of delegates getting swapped around are less than a rounding error in the end, the momentum from this race will be 99% based on the statewide popular vote

ive barely been following the democratic primary at all. caucuses are hard to get a read from anyway, when they get around to doing SC that'll be more interesting

oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 01:49 on Feb 20, 2016

# ? Feb 20, 2016 00:59

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

I think it's a pretty solid guess that Cruz outdoes Rubio in delegates.

# ? Feb 20, 2016 01:05

hobbesmaster: Jan 28, 2008

Aliquid posted:

I think it's a pretty solid guess that Cruz outdoes Rubio in delegates.

Lets dispel with this fiction that Rubio doesn't know what he's doing. He knows exactly what hes doing.

hobbesmaster has issued a correction as of 02:00 on Feb 20, 2016

# ? Feb 20, 2016 01:13

oystertoadfish: Jun 17, 2003

we've kinda had dueling narratives recently, maybe cruz is falling and rubio is rising, maybe trump is falling, maybe all three or maybe only one or two are correct. i don't think the polling will be able to help us understand very much about this race. i could be proven wrong tomorrow, maybe one set of polls or another turns out to be close to reality, but i wouldn't be surprised at all if the end result doesn't look much like any of the polling

as far as outdoing in delegates, since it's winner-take-all by district and by state:
-cruz having the better (but still slim) chance to win the statewide vote vis a vis rubio means he's got the better chance at grabbing a few dozen delegates tonight than rubio
-if trump wins then the cruz-rubio battle comes down to district-by-district discussion.
--will rubio's chances in 01, based on how establishmentarian it's alleged to be, be greater than cruz' cumulative chances in the more rural religious areas?
--let's say rubio has a better chance in 01 than cruz does in any other district, but cruz has not-much-worse-than-rubio-in-01 chances in a bunch of districts?

i think there's a pretty good chance they end up tied 0-0 or 3-3; cruz has a better chance of either taking the big prize or taking a few districts compared to rubio's one

but i think there's a very good chance trump sweeps, even if he gets an 'underperformance' in the high 20s

oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 01:56 on Feb 20, 2016

# ? Feb 20, 2016 01:50

Concerned Citizen: Jul 22, 2007; Ramrod XTreme

I have received the Nevada results early from Fox News, and I can tell you that Hillary will win the caucus by 7 points tomorrow afternoon.

Please quote this when I am proven correct.

# ? Feb 20, 2016 02:11

Mystery Goomba: Jun 4, 2011

Son of Thunderbeast posted:

It's not obvious at all, actually.

South Carolina I'll definitely give you. The question with SC is more about how narrow Bern can make the loss margin. But Nevada? I have no idea who will win, but I do know that Clinton's win isn't guaranteed.

Okay, I'm admittedly biased against Bernie's prospects, but I don't think it's unfair to be very skeptical of the idea that he can close a 20 point gap on caucus day within a matter of less than two months.

# ? Feb 20, 2016 02:21