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Mr Hootington posted:Where do you find these and is it actually Sanders? I'm sure Jonathan Capehart is on the case already.
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Feb 20, 2016 03:52
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Bruce Rappaport gets around.
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Feb 20, 2016 04:31
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Mystery Goomba posted:Okay, I'm admittedly biased against Bernie's prospects, but I don't think it's unfair to be very skeptical of the idea that he can close a 20 point gap on caucus day within a matter of less than two months. The 20 point gap is in SC, not NV.
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Feb 20, 2016 04:46
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quote:"Bernie identified it himself," said Tad Devine, a senior adviser to the campaign, adding that Sanders looked at a digital image of the photo. "He looked at it — he actually has his student ID from the University of Chicago in his wallet — and he said, 'Yes, that indeed is (me).'" Perfect. As for the GOP, I think I'm hoping for a surprise Trump boom, +37%, with a big logjam in the 17%-10% zone such that it's hard to really say anyone else distinguished themselves from the pack. Losing already hurts Cruz but if he's within orbit of the pack it's an actual defeat, and similarly even if Rubio comes out ahead of Jeb! and Kasich he needs to have enough headroom to make it look good. God help him if he's behind them, because after New Hampshire that'd probably destroy any attempt to consolidate the establishment behind him before Super Tuesday. I'm not ready to see the madness of Trump, Republican Frontrunner end, and keeping the crabs in that bucket up to Super Tuesday is probably the way to guarantee chaos at the convention.
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Feb 20, 2016 04:56
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I was referring to the differences between the (sparse) polling being done in NV prior to the latest batch of polls this month -- Clinton had a +23 lead in December. CNN had her at +1 just two days ago. That's a lot of movement! I'm not so certain those numbers are going to be reflected on caucus night, though. If they are, then egg on my face 
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Feb 20, 2016 05:29
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Aliquid posted:I think it's a pretty solid guess that Cruz outdoes Rubio in delegates. Only 21 delegates are divided piecewise from the 7 voting districts, 3 to the plurality winner of each. It's entirely possible for a 3rd place finisher to win more delegates than 2nd, if his support is geographically concentrated in places where 1st/2nd are not strong. That's the weirdest thing about the SC primary; delegates assigned are completely independent from the vote ranking. Except that the other 29 go to the statewide plurality winner, of course.
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Feb 20, 2016 05:31
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Mr Hootington posted:Where do you find these and is it actually Sanders? No, that's Bruce Rappaport.
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Feb 20, 2016 05:50
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Fuschia tude posted:Only 21 delegates are divided piecewise from the 7 voting districts, 3 to the plurality winner of each. It's entirely possible for a 3rd place finisher to win more delegates than 2nd, if his support is geographically concentrated in places where 1st/2nd are not strong. That's the weirdest thing about the SC primary; delegates assigned are completely independent from the vote ranking. i think most of the republican primaries, or at least a large plurality, follow this model. some of them are winner-take-all, some of them proportional unless someone gets over 50%, and a million other variations, but however they divvy the delegates up within the different pools, this 3/district + X for the state model seems to be pretty common going by this site, anyway http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R-Del.phtml
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Feb 20, 2016 05:53
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The GOP nomination is practically a sealed deal already barring any last ditch ratcucking by the establishment because Trump has a head start on courting the racist Labor Aristocracy vote that none of the other guys are going to be able to catch up to.
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Feb 20, 2016 06:18
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T r a v i s posted:The GOP nomination is practically a sealed deal already barring any last ditch ratcucking by the establishment because Trump has a head start on courting the racist Labor Aristocracy vote that none of the other guys are going to be able to catch up to. Donald Trump is fulfilling the prophecy of the missing white voters.
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Feb 20, 2016 06:23
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Nanomashoes posted:No, that's Bruce Rappaport. Bruce looking feisty, glad he is still alive and fighting for America.
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Feb 20, 2016 06:51
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Trump over 30%.
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Feb 20, 2016 06:57
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oystertoadfish posted:i think most of the republican primaries, or at least a large plurality, follow this model. some of them are winner-take-all, some of them proportional unless someone gets over 50%, and a million other variations, but however they divvy the delegates up within the different pools, this 3/district + X for the state model seems to be pretty common The majority of them are proportional, either statewide or some-statewide-some-proportional-by-district-result, actually. (And many have a WTA threshold for a winner of 50% or more statewide.) Your site tells you how they're divided state vs. district but not how they're allocated within those categories. There's actually only 7 more states that are going to be winner-takes-all statewide and per-district.
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Feb 20, 2016 07:04
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RUMOR: Clinton campaign is buying bar tabs for young people in Nevada so they won't get up in time for the caucus.
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Feb 20, 2016 08:02
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Comped drinks in Nevada? Is that even legal?!
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Feb 20, 2016 08:04
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Concerned Citizen posted:RUMOR: Clinton campaign is buying bar tabs for young people in Nevada so they won't get up in time for the caucus. I want so bad for this to be true.
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Feb 20, 2016 08:31
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Concerned Citizen posted:RUMOR: Clinton campaign is buying bar tabs for young people in Nevada so they won't get up in time for the caucus. I was just thinking this is why I'd bet hard on Clinton. "Are you likely to get wasted4bernie and not make it to the caucus site until 11:18 because you had to wake and bake" probably isn't a crosstab in any of these polls.
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Feb 20, 2016 08:44
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:Trump over 30%. this, book it
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Feb 20, 2016 08:57
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Oiled and Ready posted:I was just thinking this is why I'd bet hard on Clinton. "Are you likely to get wasted4bernie and not make it to the caucus site until 11:18 because you had to wake and bake" probably isn't a crosstab in any of these polls. What about all the old people who die in between the polls and the caucus who would have voted for Hillary?
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Feb 20, 2016 09:17
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Oh wait they probably vote anyways.
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Feb 20, 2016 09:18
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Now we need a photo of Fred Trump getting arrested (for being part of a racist mob, possibly).
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Feb 20, 2016 11:11
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You bastards need to have more elections on weekends. Raided the local liquor store for AMERICAN brands and I have no idea what this is but I also have no idea what the hell is going on in this election, so that's OK I think.
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Feb 20, 2016 15:26
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Corek posted:Now we need a photo of Fred Trump getting arrested (for being part of a racist mob, possibly). They don't arrest people for that, silly
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Feb 20, 2016 15:28
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ubergnu posted:You bastards need to have more elections on weekends. Raided the local liquor store for AMERICAN brands and I have no idea what this is but I also have no idea what the hell is going on in this election, so that's OK I think. If you can find it, you should get a few bottles of Raging Bitch. I had some last year and it was great.
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Feb 20, 2016 15:44
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ubergnu posted:You bastards need to have more elections on weekends. Raided the local liquor store for AMERICAN brands and I have no idea what this is but I also have no idea what the hell is going on in this election, so that's OK I think. Lagunitas is pretty good I always pick up a bomber when they're on sale.
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Feb 20, 2016 15:55
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ubergnu posted:You bastards need to have more elections on weekends. Raided the local liquor store for AMERICAN brands and I have no idea what this is but I also have no idea what the hell is going on in this election, so that's OK I think. I have no idea what any of those are
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Feb 20, 2016 15:55
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Concerned Citizen posted:RUMOR: Clinton campaign is buying bar tabs for young people in Nevada so they won't get up in time for the caucus. that'd be smart and own. ubergnu posted:You bastards need to have more elections on weekends. Raided the local liquor store for AMERICAN brands and I have no idea what this is but I also have no idea what the hell is going on in this election, so that's OK I think. lagunitas also owns. never had the maximus before though. i'm spending my day doing brewery tours so i'm sure by the time results come in i'll be a (more) drunken mess than usual on election nights. but hey at least i won't have to worry about going in to work tomorrow with a hangover! 
axeil has issued a correction as of 15:58 on Feb 20, 2016 |
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Feb 20, 2016 15:56
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Lagunitas Lil Sumpin is god tier if you can find it where ever you are
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Feb 20, 2016 16:00
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Feb 20, 2016 16:48
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Necc0 has issued a correction as of 17:02 on Feb 20, 2016 |
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Feb 20, 2016 16:49
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https://twitter.com/frankthorpNBC/status/701057035111165958
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Feb 20, 2016 16:56
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yet o'malley still stands
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Feb 20, 2016 16:57
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Willie Wilson Will Win!
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Feb 20, 2016 16:58
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Willie Wilson may have just swung my vote from write-in Bruce Rappaport. who is he?
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Feb 20, 2016 16:59
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The Saurus posted:Willie Wilson may have just swung my vote from write-in Bruce Rappaport. he is my moon and stars
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Feb 20, 2016 17:00
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Oiled and Ready posted:I was just thinking this is why I'd bet hard on Clinton. "Are you likely to get wasted4bernie and not make it to the caucus site until 11:18 because you had to wake and bake" probably isn't a crosstab in any of these polls. The caucus doesn't start till noon.
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Feb 20, 2016 17:04
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Concerned Citizen posted:yet o'malley still stands No money for furniture.
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Feb 20, 2016 17:06
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Third World Reggin posted:I have no idea what any of those are Dumb beer for losers
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Feb 20, 2016 17:10
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No drugs, no alcohol, no cigarettes. It's so simple.
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Feb 20, 2016 17:14
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| # ? May 7, 2024 11:48 |
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Mo_Steel posted:Willie Wilson Will Win!
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Feb 20, 2016 17:25
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