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On Tuesday, February 23 the Republican party will hold precinct caucuses in the state of Nevada, beginning sometime between 8pm ET (5pm PT, local) and midnight ET (9pm PT, local). WHERE CAN I WATCH THIS? http://www.c-span.org/ will have coverage throughout the night In addition, these streaming sites often show the cable networks, which will be covering it. http://www.livenewschat.eu/ http://www.stream2watch.co/live-tv/us/ http://www.hulkusc.com/ Please suggest in the thread any other streams. RESULTS http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/nevada http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/ Please suggest other sources. IRC https://client00.chat.mibbit.com/?server=EU.synirc.net%3A%2B7001&channel=%23Poligoon REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES
REPUBLICAN PROCESS Voters must be a resident of Nevada and a registered member of the Republican Party. You can register or switch registration at the precinct. During the caucus, a supporter of each candidate may give a short nominating speech. After the speeches, voting is conducted by secret ballot. Following the voting, the caucus chooses delegates for the county caucuses on March 12. This year, for the first time, delegates to the national convention will be proportionally bound to vote for candidates on the first ballot based on the outcome of the precinct-level voting. 30 delegates are proportionally allocated to Presidential contenders based on the statewide vote. Each candidate receives (candidate's statewide vote) × 30 ÷ (total statewide vote) delegates. Round fractions to the nearest whole number. If there are too few delegates allocated, the candidate nearest the rounding threshold receives the additional delegate. If too many delegates are allocated, the candidate furthest the threshold looses a delegate. Special crazy Nevada rule: A candidate who drops out between the precinct and state caucuses can choose to do one of three things with their delegates. They can choose to hold them, in which case they remain bound to that candidate on the first ballot at the convention, even though they are no longer contesting the nomination. They can choose to release their delegates, in which case they become unbound. Lastly, they can choose to proportionally reallocate their delegates among the candidates remaining in the race prior to the state convention, based on their results in the precinct caucuses. Full explanation here.
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Feb 22, 2016 23:51
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, Neurosurgeon
, Senator from Texas
, Governor of Ohio
, Senator from Florida
, Constitutionally Eligible
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| # ? May 5, 2024 20:06 |
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I look forward to the demise of Ohio Man and car safety enthusiast, John Kaisch.
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Feb 22, 2016 23:55
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How badly would Carson or Kasich have to do in NV for them to drop out before Super Tuesday? The party is seemingly deciding for Rubio, but it seems like it may be too little, too late if Kasich and Carson are eating up 10-20% of the vote share the that Rubio needs to gain ground on March 1st. Does the party have any leverage on either of them to entice them to drop out sooner rather than later?
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Feb 23, 2016 00:01
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whydirt posted:How badly would Carson or Kasich have to do in NV for them to drop out before Super Tuesday? The rumor going around is that Carson's going to drop after NV. He was basically done after SC but didn't want to let down the people they have on the ground in NV, so he decided to stay in a few more days. We'll see. Carson had $3m in cash last week. Kasich had $1m. Kasich is purposefully skipping NV and focusing on MA and VT. I think he's stubborn enough to stay in for another week, but the idea he'll be able to raise enough cash after coming in 2nd in a couple Super Tuesday states to stay in for MI and OH is delusional.
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Feb 23, 2016 00:05
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whydirt posted:How badly would Carson or Kasich have to do in NV for them to drop out before Super Tuesday? It sounds like Carson is going to drop out after Nevada.
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Feb 23, 2016 00:05
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The 2008 Republican caucus remains a cool reminder on how difficult Nevada is to poll (RCP's average was based on 3 polls): RCP didn't average their few polls in 2012 (nor are they this year), but again: 
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Feb 23, 2016 00:05
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I assume if someone sneaked behind Ben Carson and put a pillow up against his head it would entice him to drop out
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Feb 23, 2016 00:06
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Honestly doesn't seem like the results will matter that much. Trump will retain his supporters and Rubio will do well enough to continue to consolidate support.
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Feb 23, 2016 00:23
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Good to see Baby Hitler continuing his campaign, he's scrappy and young, and I don't think we'll let his Austrian birth get in the way of Making America Win Again.
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Feb 23, 2016 01:26
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it might be kind of interesting to see how different types of precincts vote, is there anywhere i can pull a table of demographic information for the precincts? if trump does really well (50%+, say) or doesn't win, or if kasich randomly gets a bunch of delegates, or if carson thinks he did so well he just can't drop out after that amazing performance (no idea what %, if any, might elicit that response in his mind) this might have some effect on anything but i feel like it'll barely even register in the narrative as we approach super tuesday
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Feb 23, 2016 01:52
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Joementum posted:The rumor going around is that Carson's going to drop after NV. He was basically done after SC but didn't want to let down the people they have on the ground in NV, so he decided to stay in a few more days. We'll see. Is there any plausible motivation left for Kasich at this point besides self-delusion? If NH couldn't put Kasich ahead of Rubio, what can? Is there something he's getting out of running a losing campaign?
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Feb 23, 2016 05:24
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PleasingFungus posted:Is there any plausible motivation left for Kasich at this point besides self-delusion? If NH couldn't put Kasich ahead of Rubio, what can? If Rubio fucks up he's the only game left in town. Plus lots of pride and the delusional belief that Rubio will melt down before Kasich is out and that if he did the party would turn to Kasich as their last hope.
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Feb 23, 2016 05:54
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PleasingFungus posted:Is there any plausible motivation left for Kasich at this point besides self-delusion? If NH couldn't put Kasich ahead of Rubio, what can? I'm not sure how many times I will post this: Campaigns don't end, they run out of money. Kasich will stay in until there is no money to keep the lights on.
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Feb 23, 2016 06:18
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Schnorkles posted:I'm not sure how many times I will post this: Campaigns don't end, they run out of money. Jeb had millions left when he dropped out, as far as I know.
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Feb 23, 2016 07:58
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quote:Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has revealed he isn’t in love with the caucus system of choosing national convention delegates. I have similar feelings about caucuses in general.
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Feb 23, 2016 12:44
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PleasingFungus posted:Jeb had millions left when he dropped out, as far as I know. A million dollars only buys jeb ~250 votes though
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Feb 23, 2016 12:45
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PleasingFungus posted:Is there any plausible motivation left for Kasich at this point besides self-delusion? If NH couldn't put Kasich ahead of Rubio, what can? Three scenarios: 1. Kasich is running with the hopes that Rubio will self-destruct. Should the Rubio campaign implode, Kasich is the only remaining standard bearer left for the mainstream; 2. Kasich is running to steal votes away from Rubio in the hopes that the latter is forced to make some kind of grand bargain that Rubio wouldn't ordinarily entertain. Based on his statements, I would bet that Kasich really wants to be the Secretary of State and would probably drop out if Rubio promised him the seat; or, 3. Kasich is running under the assumption that we are heading into a contested convention and he wants to pick up as many delegates as possible to stop Trump and elevate his own status as a Kingmaker. If he can win Ohio, which he has the best chance of pulling off, then Kasich is in a very good position to organize come Cleveland. EDIT: And I guess you could throw in a fourth scenario, that he's running solely to raise his national profile for something in the future. Kasich is term-limited and, while I doubt he wants to go back to Congress, he's probably not yet done with politics. QuoProQuid has issued a correction as of 18:57 on Feb 23, 2016 |
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Feb 23, 2016 14:45
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Kasich has done just as good as Rubio so far, they both only have 2nd place wins under their belts. If Rubio starts winning states then it will make sense for Kasich to drop out. If Rubio doesn't win Nevada I don't think he will get the nomination. I don't care how much momentum a candidate has, at some point he needs to win states.
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Feb 23, 2016 15:23
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Is Trump the winner yet?
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Feb 23, 2016 16:05
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When did Bill Clinton start to win states? I know he had a slow start to his first campaign.
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Feb 23, 2016 16:16
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e: ^^^ Bill Clinton didn't start winning until March 3rd [which I believe was 92's super tuesday or similar]. Even then he was down pretty significantly to Paul Tsongas who had won 5[iirc?] states at that point. He wasn't even very strong in any race until Georgia.PleasingFungus posted:Jeb had millions left when he dropped out, as far as I know. Jeb's PAC had $15mil remaining. It's unknown how much Jeb had, but he'd be on life support because no one was giving him anything after SC. He could have soldiered on like Kasich is now [little to no advertising, minimal campaign apparatus] but not many people want to do that. He ran out of money. Schnorkles has issued a correction as of 16:26 on Feb 23, 2016 |
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Feb 23, 2016 16:22
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I kinda said this before but I could see Jeb endorsing Kasich if he stays in after Nevada. It's pure conjecture but if I'm remembering right Jeb went on in a debate or two about how the governors do more in terms of leadership and it makes more sense to support another governor of a fairly significant state in terms of at least a possible swing vote (even if Ohio is still likely to go blue from now on). I don't think he likes Rubio or Cruz very much, especially Rubio (and really, no one likes Cruz), so supporting either doesn't make much sense to me.
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Feb 23, 2016 17:22
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Schnorkles posted:Jeb's PAC had $15mil remaining. It's unknown how much Jeb had, but he'd be on life support because no one was giving him anything after SC. He could have soldiered on like Kasich is now [little to no advertising, minimal campaign apparatus] but not many people want to do that. Walker syndrome. I'll buy it. QuoProQuid posted:3. Kasich is running under the assumption that we are heading into a contested convention and he wants to pick up as many delegates as possible to stop Trump and elevate his own status as a Kingmaker. If he can win Ohio, which he has the best chance of pulling off, then Kasich is in a very good position to organize come Cleveland. The other scenarios sound relatively reasonable (esp. 2 and 4), but I'm really not sold on this one. Especially as we move into the winner-take-all states, how many delegates is Kasich really going to be able to take?
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Feb 23, 2016 17:49
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PleasingFungus posted:Walker syndrome. I'll buy it. The big prize is Ohio, which is winner-takes-all and hands out 66 delegates. Rubio is not polling well there and Kasich is the only non-Trump candidate who has a chance at taking it. Kasich can also count on some support in Michigan, Illinois, and Vermont where he seems to be polling a strong second/third. Because these states have proportional or hybrid models, he would probably walk out with a good number of delegates if he is able to keep his campaign running. The issue for the Kasich campaign, one that Joementum has brought up regularly, is money. Unless he gets a new donor soon, Kasich isn't going to have enough money to keep the lights on, let alone compete with the Cruz or Rubio campaigns. QuoProQuid has issued a correction as of 18:54 on Feb 23, 2016 |
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Feb 23, 2016 18:50
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QuoProQuid posted:The issue for the Kasich campaign, one that Joementum has brought up regularly, is money. Unless he gets a new donor soon, Kasich isn't going to have enough money to keep the lights on, let alone compete with the Cruz or Rubio campaigns. Guys, better buckle up...for Kasich! http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/02/22/john-kasich-picks-up-another-billionaire-backer-julian-robertson/ quote:RICHMOND, Va. — Gov. John Kasich’s campaign said on Monday that it had gained another billionaire supporter: the hedge fund titan Julian H. Robertson Jr.
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Feb 23, 2016 19:14
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http://forums.talkingpointsmemo.com/t/discussion-cnn-bans-trump-ally-roger-stone-from-network/33356 Oh, Roger. Apparently personal insults against broadcasters is too much, but his holocaust denial and "Jews did 9/11" theory were just fine. Whoops wrong thread. Still funny. Oiled and Ready has issued a correction as of 20:57 on Feb 23, 2016 |
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Feb 23, 2016 20:54
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Does the Nevada Republican caucus work in the same way that the Iowa Republican caucus does? That is, do a bunch of people crowd into a room and write down on a slip of paper their preferred candidate, which is then counted by hand?
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Feb 23, 2016 21:46
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I hope everybody votes for Jeb as a troll so he thinks,"If I'd just held on one more week.... "
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Feb 23, 2016 22:01
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A Republican official just confirmed that 37,000 people have pre-registered for the Nevada caucus tonight, which is more than the total turnout of the 2012 caucus.
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Feb 23, 2016 22:14
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https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/702238990577995776 E: Beaten!
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Feb 23, 2016 22:16
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oh my god it's going to be a disaster
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Feb 23, 2016 22:22
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Trump is going to clean house. Always bet on Trump.
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Feb 23, 2016 22:25
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The big winner tonight will be Mitt Romney, somehow. Nevada voters stick to their guns.
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Feb 23, 2016 22:30
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Why do people suddenly think if Carson drops out his voters will go to Rubio?
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Feb 23, 2016 22:39
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Jeb finally doing as well as trump, at least in this thread poll.
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Feb 23, 2016 22:41
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Pleasant Friend posted:Why do people suddenly think if Carson drops out his voters will go to Rubio? sleepy man --> robot seems more of a natural progression than sleepy man --> human-shaped sewage
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Feb 23, 2016 22:42
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Pleasant Friend posted:Why do people suddenly think if Carson drops out his voters will go to Rubio? That actually confuses me too, are there polls suggesting this? Trump has made a point of being buddy-buddy with Carson and I'd fully expect his (very small amount of) voters to go to Trump before they went to anyone else.
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Feb 23, 2016 22:44
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Foo posted:Does the Nevada Republican caucus work in the same way that the Iowa Republican caucus does? That is, do a bunch of people crowd into a room and write down on a slip of paper their preferred candidate, which is then counted by hand? Yes. And with record turnout and variable starting times, this will go smooth as butter.
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Feb 23, 2016 22:48
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Joementum posted:Yes. And with record turnout and variable starting times, this will go smooth as butter. I respect and agree with your position that caucuses own, but can we also agree that they suck?
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Feb 23, 2016 22:51
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| # ? May 5, 2024 20:06 |
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Don't forget that the reporting system is to have local officials take pictures of their precinct's tally sheet with a smartphone and send those to GOP state officials, which I'm sure will work very smoothly.
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Feb 23, 2016 22:54
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