Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
Who will win the caucuses?
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Jeb, somehow
Baby Hitler
View Results
 
  • Locked thread
Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
Yeah the "Clinton Political Machine" would be pretty useless against Trump in terms of the ratfucking parts, you're never going to beat him on the low road. You beat him by being the candidate more people like, which shouldn't be tough but hell, Clinton is well on her way to being loathed by fully 2/3 of the country so we'll see.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

What will it take for someone facing Trump to stop being deathly afraid that he'll say mean things about them on twitter. He's a school yard bully who has gotten his way this entire time. Now I'm not saying that he's a paper tiger, I think we've learned that he's much stronger. But call him out on his bluff. What the gently caress is he going to do? Hillary has been poo poo on by the GOP for over 20 years, she's used to it. Somehow I think she can survive whatever mudslinging someone as brass and unimaginative as Trump can throw. Hillary can use any attack against her as an attack against women in general, and it won't even be much of a stretch considering the vile things he will undoubtedly say! People like Bill. They don't like Trump. Aside from the people who would NEVER EVER EVER vote for a democrat no matter what.

What was Romney's electoral demographics again? Wasn't it something laughable like 90% white? Do you honestly think the minority vote won't be even worse for Trump this time around, especially considering that the minority voting block is now larger than it was 4 years ago? He would need just south of 70% of ALL white voters in general to go for him to win.

And I think that the amount of Bernie Bros who are going to stay home out of spite (an amount that I think is being vastly overestimated) will at least be matched by the amount of butthurt Rubio voters who seem to openly detest Trump almost as much as people on the left because he's basically shattered the GOP.

If Rubio was the nominee Clinton would be in a lot more trouble (though you can never count out Rubio Bot crashing in the middle of a debate). But Trump's very existence will do more to rally the not so thrilled Dems around the party flag than their contemporaries in the GOP. Trump has brought the "silent majority" out from the dark slimy underbelly of America like no candidate has before, but I just don't believe that they have the numbers. Especially if they basically just flood the polling places in record numbers in states that were going to go red no matter what.

Shimrra Jamaane has issued a correction as of 09:51 on Feb 24, 2016

rabble rabble
Mar 24, 2015



Nap Ghost
why is everyone so scared of Trump? he holds the exact same terrible positions as every other republican candidate, just doesn't couch them in southern strategy double speak, and is even to the left of the party in some regards. why is THIS guy so much scarier then everyone else? the hell am I missing?

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

rabble rabble posted:

why is everyone so scared of Trump? he holds the exact same terrible positions as every other republican candidate, just doesn't couch them in southern strategy double speak, and is even to the left of the party in some regards. why is THIS guy so much scarier then everyone else? the hell am I missing?

Hi! Europe speaking. Welcome to the brand new world of crappy post-2000 populism! :) Look at how well factual debates and logic has kept Lega Nord, Front National, UKIP, Swedish Democrats, Dansk Folkeparti, True Finns etc. from growing.

Lessail
Apr 1, 2011

:cry::cry:
tell me how vgk aren't playing like shit again
:cry::cry:
p.s. help my grapes are so sour!

Foo posted:

Ted Cruz is currently in 2nd place!

Ted Cruz 8,420 23.3
Marco Rubio 8,239 22.8

Please make rubio third :pray:

skaboomizzy
Nov 12, 2003

There is nothing I want to be. There is nothing I want to do.
I don't even have an image of what I want to be. I have nothing. All that exists is zero.

lilljonas posted:

Hi! Europe speaking. Welcome to the brand new world of crappy post-2000 populism! :) Look at how well factual debates and logic has kept Lega Nord, Front National, UKIP, Swedish Democrats, Dansk Folkeparti, True Finns etc. from growing.

At least UKIP's 12% only nets them one seat in Parliament. The US equivalent of UKIP has effectively hijacked one of the only two relevant parties, so we're all kinda hosed.

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

someone as brass and unimaginative as Trump

Did you combine brash and crass into one word?

mike12345
Jul 14, 2008

"Whether the Earth was created in 7 days, or 7 actual eras, I'm not sure we'll ever be able to answer that. It's one of the great mysteries."





Jewel Repetition posted:

Did you combine brash and crass into one word?

new words for a new millenium.

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

rabble rabble posted:

why is everyone so scared of Trump? he holds the exact same terrible positions as every other republican candidate, just doesn't couch them in southern strategy double speak, and is even to the left of the party in some regards. why is THIS guy so much scarier then everyone else? the hell am I missing?

The things that scare me about him are the fact that he likes war crimes more than anyone else running, and Back to the Future II.

Baku
Aug 20, 2005

by Fluffdaddy

Jewel Repetition posted:

Did you combine brash and crass into one word?

mike12345 posted:

new words for a new millenium.



it's not the most common usage and could totally be a typo, but you guys have never heard "brassy" before?

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.
It was a typo but to my defense its 4 am on the east coast right now.

But you know what I meant, the rest of my point still stands.

Baku
Aug 20, 2005

by Fluffdaddy

WELL THAT'LL TEACH ME TO BE BRASSY

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

Zombies' Downfall posted:



it's not the most common usage and could totally be a typo, but you guys have never heard "brassy" before?

I've heard brassy but they said "brass" and were using it as an adjective.

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.
But yes, Trump has brass that makes him crass, brash and brassy.

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Am I the only one who thinks that Hillary would perform far better in a debate against Trump than Bernie would? Bernie, god bless his soul, seems to leave himself so vulnerable because he just can't seem to be mean. Trump will make fun of his mannerisms, his voice, his glasses, whatever it takes. Bernie will start off on a tangent about Wallstreet and Trump will just role his eyes and silently mock him on the stage going "like, ok". How would it not literally be a repeat of "there you go again!" over and over and over. Bernie getting flustered really easily and then start to stumble on himself.

Actually a Bernie vs. Trump debate would go like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGRAonpLeQg

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx
Hillary can hammer him on his lack of experience working with real politicians. Oh you beat Jeb! Bush? I remember my first election.

Then there's the whole literal white nationalist thing. poo poo don't even need to say the white part or hide the fascism behind nationalism.

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

DemeaninDemon posted:

Hillary can hammer him on his lack of experience working with real politicians.

I don't think that's something people look unfavourably upon this cycle

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.
With 97% reporting the Republican turnout is noticeably lower than the Democratic turnout. Weren't people saying that the Republicans were smashing the Dems in turnout here?

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

With 97% reporting the Republican turnout is noticeably lower than the Democratic turnout. Weren't people saying that the Republicans were smashing the Dems in turnout here?

Migf was I think but he's full of poo poo deep dish.

Also I don't think Trump's outsider gimmick translates well enough to beat out the Not loving Trump oh god no force.

Oiled and Ready
Oct 11, 2004

He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...

Oiled and Ready posted:

I'm telling you, 50%+ Trump.

Ron Paul gets screwed by Romney TWICE in Nevada, then Romney loses the general.

Trump recently said Bush did 9/11 and audit the fed, which are Paul's biggest selling points, because conspiracy.

Trump will win by 20+ points.

Heh. Almost called it.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
President Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Just wanted to post that to practice a bit.

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

With 97% reporting the Republican turnout is noticeably lower than the Democratic turnout. Weren't people saying that the Republicans were smashing the Dems in turnout here?

here are turnout numbers for both parties in the Nevada caucus

Democratic Nevada Caucus
2008 - 118,000
2016 - 84,000

Republican Nevada Caucus
2008 - 44,000
2012 - 32,000
2016 - 73,000~

mannerup has issued a correction as of 11:11 on Feb 24, 2016

Foo
May 16, 2003
Professional Sponge

mannerup posted:

here are turnout numbers for both parties in the Nevada caucus

Democratic Nevada Caucus
2008 - 118,000
2016 - 84,000

Republican Nevada Caucus
2008 - 44,000
2012 - 32,000
2016 - 73,000~

So Nevada is safely blue, got it

Prof. Lurker
Mar 10, 2015

I've got the fire of human liberty!

I'm setting fires everywhere!

And humans are turning on everywhere!

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

And not nearly enough is being done to combat Trump's whole "Oh I'm beholden to no one because I am self funding my campaign" shtick. The thing is that Trump IS the big corporate interest. He IS the big money donor, the corrupting lobbyist, the institutional problem made flesh. He's freely admitted it. He's just cutting out the middle man and going right to the position of power. Use that poo poo against him.

"Look, I make golf courses and build hotels. These are industries that are bolstered by the middle class. I mean it's so simple! Hillary's puppet masters from Goldman Sachs don't care about the American people like I do! All I'm doing is telling the truth and trying to make America great again!"

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬

Foo posted:

So Nevada is safely blue, got it

its has been a trend in all of the contests so far with GOP having a surge since the last contested primary and the DNC having a lower turnout. its too early to tell with just these first few contests but if the trend carries throughout Super Tuesday its a concern.

Iowa Republican
2008 - 119,000
2012 - 121,000
2016 - 187,000
Iowa Democratic
2008 - 239,000
2016 - 171,000

New Hampshire Republican
2008 - 234,000
2012 - 248,000
2016 - 284,000
New Hampshire Democratic
2008 - 287,000
2016 - 251,000

(edited out the article that was here before since it had garbage and just pulled the raw numbers instead)

mannerup has issued a correction as of 14:42 on Feb 24, 2016

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

They already know the dem South Carolina turnout?

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬

Fast Luck posted:

They already know the dem South Carolina turnout?

yeah I just noticed that part in the article and removed it and just put the raw numbers there instead

Vertical Lime
Dec 11, 2004

https://twitter.com/AP/status/702487242351243264

eric
Apr 27, 2004
Lipstick Apathy

The real story of the night is Rubio's big 2nd place win!

Full Battle Rattle
Aug 29, 2009

As long as the times refuse to change, we're going to make a hell of a racket.
I wonder if that makes Marco more or less nervous

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005
I'm guessing ol' Marco Roboto declared victory anyway?

How many times does he have to lose before people start believing he can't win?

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬

Alter Ego posted:

I'm guessing ol' Marco Roboto declared victory anyway?

How many times does he have to lose before people start believing he can't win?

when he loses Florida to Trump

TROIKA CURES GREEK
Jun 30, 2015

by R. Guyovich

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

What will it take for someone facing Trump to stop being deathly afraid that he'll say mean things about them on twitter. He's a school yard bully who has gotten his way this entire time. Now I'm not saying that he's a paper tiger, I think we've learned that he's much stronger. But call him out on his bluff. What the gently caress is he going to do? Hillary has been poo poo on by the GOP for over 20 years, she's used to it. Somehow I think she can survive whatever mudslinging someone as brass and unimaginative as Trump can throw. Hillary can use any attack against her as an attack against women in general, and it won't even be much of a stretch considering the vile things he will undoubtedly say! People like Bill. They don't like Trump. Aside from the people who would NEVER EVER EVER vote for a democrat no matter what.


People liked bill cosby too.

TROIKA CURES GREEK
Jun 30, 2015

by R. Guyovich

rabble rabble posted:

why is everyone so scared of Trump? he holds the exact same terrible positions as every other republican candidate, just doesn't couch them in southern strategy double speak, and is even to the left of the party in some regards. why is THIS guy so much scarier then everyone else? the hell am I missing?

Yea, saying Bush was the worst president ever and should have been impeached is totally the same as other republicans, along with defending planned parenthood and free healthcare for poor people. Exactly the same.

Cromulent_Chill
Apr 6, 2009

Concerned Citizen posted:

Mods please make Jewel Repetition poo poo his pants.

I agree with CC for this issue.

fknlo
Jul 6, 2009


Fun Shoe

Zoran posted:

Counterpoint:

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/681447548133965824

e: I think you also underestimate how much the general electorate (outside of self-identified Democrats) dislikes Hillary. Even Democrats don't think of her as being very trustworthy, honest, empathetic, or relatable.

I don't know if I see that kind of attack going well during the general. Bill is a well liked former President with failing health. And then there's the thing where Hillary isn't Bill. And then there's Trumps issues with women.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

fknlo posted:

I don't know if I see that kind of attack going well during the general. Bill is a well liked former President with failing health. And then there's the thing where Hillary isn't Bill. And then there's Trumps issues with women.

Hillary doesn't even need to accuse Trump of being a sexist--he does that all on his own, without any help. All he has to do is say something lovely--which he will, because he's Trump--and Hillary can sit back and let it get hours of free media from the pearl-clutchers in the press.

mike12345
Jul 14, 2008

"Whether the Earth was created in 7 days, or 7 actual eras, I'm not sure we'll ever be able to answer that. It's one of the great mysteries."





Alter Ego posted:

Hillary doesn't even need to accuse Trump of being a sexist--he does that all on his own, without any help. All he has to do is say something lovely--which he will, because he's Trump--and Hillary can sit back and let it get hours of free media from the pearl-clutchers in the press.

She can sit back and lose. It's not sexist and racist - it's against pc culture and the establisment. That's how it has been framed, that's why he's popular, and that's why he won't be hurt by it in the general.

SavageBastard
Nov 16, 2007
Professional Lurker

Alter Ego posted:

Hillary doesn't even need to accuse Trump of being a sexist--he does that all on his own, without any help. All he has to do is say something lovely--which he will, because he's Trump--and Hillary can sit back and let it get hours of free media from the pearl-clutchers in the press.

The smart play is to point out simple lack of civility and decency. Most people are put off by Trump because of his lack of basic decency and propriety which is the foundation of political correctness.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

fknlo
Jul 6, 2009


Fun Shoe

mike12345 posted:

She can sit back and lose. It's not sexist and racist - it's against pc culture and the establisment. That's how it has been framed, that's why he's popular, and that's why he won't be hurt by it in the general.

But how popular is he among people that aren't part of the white nationalist seething ball of white hot rage that is the Republican primary voting base? Not very. He's not going to get minorities and I'm guessing most women will have a massive issue with him as well in the general. If he pivots hard enough in the general to try and lose some of the crazy poo poo he's said involving mexicans, muslims, and women he's going to cool some of that white hot rage behind him. I don't think he has an even remotely easy path to the white house.

  • Locked thread