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I'm kinda waiting for an SU-25 to be photoshopped onto google earth again
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# ¿ Jun 14, 2018 13:22 |
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# ¿ May 12, 2024 14:39 |
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Drilldo you could join an azov battalion and stand as a defender of the victims of communism Boy howdy, if you think the azov battalion is bad, you can look at the DNR leadership if you like. Putin loves neo-nazis.
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# ¿ Dec 6, 2021 11:14 |
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Sinteres posted:But yeah, I agree that Russian intervention in Ukraine isn't ideal, which is why I prefer a compromise where some tacit understanding on Russian control of Crimea is reached (Russia realistically isn't climbing down from that after formally annexing the territory) in return for a return to normal relations and a withdrawal from the Donbass. I don't know if that's a deal Russia would take, but I've been in favor of it since the initial invasion. And since everyone agrees that Ukraine isn't getting NATO membership any time soon, why not make that a formal commitment, even if just for a set number of years? It's a painless concession, so if it can prevent actual harm it seems worth doing. Russia has in fact given out its demands- you don't have to invent a new arrangement.
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# ¿ Jan 20, 2022 21:38 |
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Sinteres posted:They continue to refer to it because it's been the excuse for every major US intervention for decades, like I said. Pointing out that Munich happened has been how imperialists have punched left at people who prefer diplomatic solutions forever. If Putin was looking for a diplomatic solution, he'd actually need to not be threatening an invasion. It will ultimately be Russian troops doing the invasion. He has already invaded the country before. The best way to keep a country out of NATO is not to prove to them the consequences of not being in NATO.
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# ¿ Jan 20, 2022 21:53 |
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Orthanc6 posted:Quite like, unfortunately, the situation Ukraine has with nukes. They traded in the nukes they inherited from Russia for a guarantee of independence. Turns out, nukes are any countries' actual guarantee of independence. So that's "fun". It's great- notice how there wasn't really talk of Finland or Sweden joining NATO until Russia unveiled their newfangled aggressive foreign policy? Even Ukraine was not that interested in NATO membership before Russia invaded and annexed the parts of the country that would have been reliably against joining NATO.
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# ¿ Jan 20, 2022 22:07 |
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Sinteres posted:Pro-West coups are known as color revolutions, but pro-Russian coups which may or may not actually happen are to be met with preemptive sanctions. Even given this logic, Ukraine was met with pre-emptive invasion in Crimea, so a sanctions regime seems like the more diplomatic approach.
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# ¿ Jan 20, 2022 23:12 |
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Sinteres posted:Maybe we could try de-escalation, where Russia withdraws from some of the territory they're currently occupying and some of the sanctions are withdrawn in return. And some of Russia's strategic concerns could be addressed, and Russia in turn could be a better neighbor and stop threatening Ukraine's security. Israel routinely bombs Iranian forces in Syria because they can't possibly allow even a weaker enemy country to have a presence near their border, and the US obviously supports this, but when Russia has concerns about a massive alliance that's far stronger than it continuing to bolster its strength near Russia's borders, they're paranoid and any attempt they make to address the situation is a monstrous act of barbarism from the Western perspective. The real American argument is that we're strong enough that we'll do what we want to do without any real concessions to assuage Russian concerns, and any attempt by Russia to stop us will be met with crippling sanctions that will immiserate the people of Russia. In the real world, Russia has driven a bunch of units right up to the Ukranian border, made a list of demands, amped up the rhetoric about how Kiev is an illegitimate state, and sent out press about how they'd probably win a nuclear war. I'm sure it's very much a self-defensive military invasion on the plate here. Putin here is Dubya. A grand total of three NATO countries border Russia. Most of its border is not, in fact, adjacent to a NATO country. However, Russian aggression makes its neighbors want to be a part of that alliance. I wonder why. Sinteres posted:What if we're the bully and Russia's right to be paranoid? I'm sure Ukranian tanks are on their way to Moscow any second now.
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# ¿ Jan 20, 2022 23:23 |
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uno.mannschaft posted:Sure, but there are other means to achieve your goals than wishing your opponents die by divine intervention and going to war. And maybe thats what we are seeing now? Generally, when you make a list of demands that are non-negotiable and deploy your military forces, you have one particular solution in mind, much the same way George Bush did in 2003.
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# ¿ Jan 21, 2022 11:02 |
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steinrokkan posted:When Putin speaks of Russian security, he means exclusively his ability to squeeze and exploit his neighbors. They had reasonably favorable position in the European structures prior to this, with all of Europe being quite willingly dependent on Russia for energy, but they were apparently willing to throw it away for this, that doesn't spell "willingness to compromise" to me. Yeah, he had a lot more influence in the Ukranian government before he decided to embark on military adventurism there. This is someone who favors the prestige and domestic appeal of winning wars over a strict, sober assessment of geopolitics.
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# ¿ Jan 21, 2022 11:20 |
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lollontee posted:why would you wish something like that? seems like a place i could get killed for being a communist in I'm sure the Wagner mercenaries protecting your 'friendly' DNR/LNR, who were also founded by nazis will be very considerate of your communist beliefs.
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# ¿ Jan 21, 2022 15:05 |
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TipTow posted:Some common ground, this is kinda central to my "Russia feeling threatened by NATO" position. The NATO security guarantee wouldn't be worth much without the US providing it.
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# ¿ Jan 21, 2022 16:30 |
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TipTow posted:No doubt. That doesn't change the fact that the U.S, which has a history of antagonism toward Russia, is the "elephant in the room" when discussion how Russia feels threatened by NATO. I think the problem is basically Russia's idea of 'threatened' is when it can't invade all of their neighbors whenever something doesn't go their way in said neighbors' domestic politics.
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# ¿ Jan 21, 2022 16:38 |
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If the US responded to CSTO expanding into Mexico by making twenty-one points and threatening invasion, that would also be warmongering to an intense degree. Unfortunately, the real military aggression on display here by Russia is significantly more of a problem than the military aggression of a hypothetical thought experiment.
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# ¿ Jan 21, 2022 16:49 |
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lollontee posted:doesnt the US do that on the regular, for instance in recent history with nicaragua? the US support for the Contras was, in fact, a bad thing, yes, your point?
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# ¿ Jan 21, 2022 16:56 |
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It seems like the Russian contention is to prevent countries from joining NATO so they can ensure their absolute dominance over them by being able to invade: see, Belarus, so i don't think it's just some nice thing about seeing to their own defense.
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# ¿ Jan 23, 2022 21:12 |
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Alchenar posted:I think the problem with the 'it's a bluff' position is that Putin's demands have been so maximalist that nothing he can possibly be offered will make this brinksmanship look like a win for him. Compare and contrast with the Cuban Missile Crisis where the US's starting demands were exactly what they wanted 'remove the nukes from Cuba', and the concession that was made in the end was a reasonable one of reciprocal withdrawal that made everyone feel like a winner (well, aside from the 'we almost nuked each other, that was bad' feeling and the fact that Khrushchev wasn't able to get credit from the widthdrawal of missiles from Turkey so it looked like he'd lost). Yeah, I can't see compelling evidence that this is just a bluff to force NATO to the negotiating table. They would probably, in that case, actually phrase their messaging like some kind of deal can be made instead of making an ultimatum. Of course, Sinteres believes there is some secret message in the ultimatum that it is not an ultimatum, but I think that is living in some alternate reality. Putin might pull back from this, but I think it'll be because he changed his mind based on the consequences rather than because this was a calculated bluff, though he might claim the latter in public messaging.
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# ¿ Jan 24, 2022 11:24 |
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Truga posted:i'm not calling out the condemnations, i'm calling out the idea that this entire conflict was somehow completely unavoidable by the west. when one side completely ignored the positions of the other for like 20 years, you don't get to pretend that. it's insanely lovely for people of ukraine, but this entire poo poo was brewed by both russia and nato, not just one side "we reserve the right to invade any neighbor we want to enhance our revanchist project" is probably a principle worth ignoring
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# ¿ Jan 25, 2022 12:34 |
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Truga posted:clearly, what's thousands of dead slavs over a principle amirite Seems like they're the ones doing the killing over trying to preserve the principle of being able to invade whenever they want.
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# ¿ Jan 25, 2022 12:58 |
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Yep, seems reasonable to ask that russia stop occupying foreign territory if they want NATO not to deploy troops in member states.
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# ¿ Jan 27, 2022 13:29 |
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Unfortunately, giving Putin any concessions to what he wants on the major issues would reinforce the notion that 19c power politics, invasions, brutality, etc are how to get things done, and should be avoided if at all possible. His 'security concerns' should be disregarded, as it would lead to others considering invading their neighbors and making more land grabs to assuage their 'security concerns'. In the pure power politics sense, why shouldn't the US do everything it can to keep Russia contained and weak? Get away from moralism. If we're ignoring moralism and just going for pure power games, there's nothing Russia really has to offer the US as an ally. Panzeh fucked around with this message at 11:39 on Jan 28, 2022 |
# ¿ Jan 28, 2022 11:37 |
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Sinteres posted:Don't know what country you're from, but this is definitely the callous 'it's no problem for us if Ukraine gets invaded or not, we win either way' attitude where diplomacy isn't even worth trying that I talk about the US having. Why do you think Putin is remotely good faith about any kind of negotiations given how little he cared about them with respect to Ukraine at any time before? Every statement from Putin and Lavrov seems calculated to disallow any kind of sane diplomacy from the West. Panzeh fucked around with this message at 13:00 on Feb 8, 2022 |
# ¿ Feb 8, 2022 12:50 |
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Sinteres posted:I don't think Putin's a particularly unstable or irrational actor, and he's made his demands pretty clear about Ukraine (and Georgia) not being permitted to join NATO or the EU. Sucks for Ukraine, but if invasion is going to prevent those from happening anyway, giving up those aspirations makes sense to me. We already know that nobody cares about the victims of occupation since the sanctions on Crimea impose collective punishment on them, so it's not like the US is going to do them any good in the case of an invasion. Besides, the West broke their promises about NATO enlargement long before Putin started invading his neighbors, so the US, UK, and France are among the bad faith actors who precipitated the crisis, and it's not a whataboutism since they acted first and influenced Russia's subsequent actions. Not that I'm saying enlarging NATO was as immoral as Russia invading its neighbors, but it's been a contributing factor to deteriorating relations, though obviously if you live in the Baltics or Poland you're happy to make that trade. Once a country gets to invading and annexing chunks of other countries, you have to get extremely suspicious about the faith any guarantee that would demand that a country give up its right to any kind of collective defense. If you've invaded and annexed Crimea and have zero intention of giving that back at any time, the purpose of demanding Ukraine(and Georgia) never join NATO appears to simply be a play to allow a future invasion. Which means negotiations on that basis are impossible- the Finlandization proposals might make sense if Russia agreed to withdraw from Crimea and renounced the DNR/LNR, but in the context of the current situation, 'Neutralization' is out of the question. Ultimately, this is probably an unproductive avenue of discussion because it involves trying to read some strange code for 'diplomacy' out of a Russian ultimatum. Panzeh fucked around with this message at 13:13 on Feb 8, 2022 |
# ¿ Feb 8, 2022 13:11 |
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Morrow posted:All this discussion of Crimean popular support for Russian annexation ignores the facts that Russia annexed the peninsula regardless of any popular support. Whether the native population opposed or supported annexation in 2014 was not a factor into Russia's decision to invade and annex the territory of one of its closest neighbors. Yeah, Ukraine's reward for exercising restraint in that affair was Russia taking even more territory in the Donbas. If Putin rationally wanted to maximize his influence over the Ukranian government, he'd want to keep those territories in Ukraine so they'd be a consistent thorn in the side. Part of his vision of the Minsk agreement has him kinda want it both ways- he gets to keep Crimea, but Donbass retains veto power on all Ukranian government decisions. Of course his demands are rather ridiculous. It's not just about regaining some influence over the Kiev government- Russia could've had that with a magnanimous gesture. It's about irredentist ambitions and imperial desire.
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# ¿ Feb 8, 2022 16:39 |
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I think it's pretty reasonable to be on edge when an ultimatum is followed by a massive movement of troops to a border.
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# ¿ Feb 11, 2022 22:39 |
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Robocope posted:Lots of people itt going over literal American propaganda. Lavrov as an American propagandist is a juicy take that would have made Andropov blush.
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# ¿ Feb 11, 2022 23:17 |
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Sinteres posted:Again, I very clearly went with the assumption that Russia is evil/unjustified/however you want to look at it in the phrasing of my question, and simply asked if there's more that could have been done for peace even knowing that. 'We dont negotiate with terrorists' seems to be the consensus, so I'll take it as answered, but you're misrepresenting my position here now. If there was some reasonable offramp that Russia wanted to have and there were any reasonable negotiations on the table, Lavrov would probably have indicated that at some point instead of constantly going "this is what we demand, give it or die". If he wanted negotiations, he and Putin wouldn't be wasting time haranguing Macron about the last 30 year.
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# ¿ Feb 12, 2022 21:03 |
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Terminal autist posted:Obviously I can't speak for Sinteres who it looks like was probed for having a position in opposition to the unhinged blood lust ITT, but scrapping the Western security framework seems like a pretty good goal. Do you seriously thing anyone in a Western nation is threatened by Russia? The FSB isn't going to inject you with Polonium for having weird opinions about Russians, Des Moines not going to get strafed MIGs. For a serious solution to the problem we should try making NATO North Atlantic again. Ah yes, collective security, a bad thing, it's every country for themselves, boys!
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# ¿ Feb 12, 2022 21:21 |
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# ¿ May 12, 2024 14:39 |
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fuctifino posted:Seeing as these stories were heavily reported in the UK media, I guess these tweets deserve to be posted here: I think i'd take this stuff more seriously if Ames and his ilk ever said anything about the DNR/LNR nazis or the Russian 'Wagner' group.
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# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 13:30 |