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Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

TipTow posted:

Is this in response to me? I said nothing about dismantling NATO or giving in to the demands of a bully.

But you're saying that the Baltic states shouldn't have been allowed because it upsets Vladimir.

Okay, let Vladimir take the Baltics. But oh no, now Nato is the Russian border in Poland! Better let Vladimir take Poland too, so stability is maintained.

What's that, Germany is too close to Russia..?

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Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Is that a Muscovite provocation??

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Most of all Russia wants to seal the annexation of the Crimea and make Ukraine approve it so the sanctions could be let go. Persuading Kyiv to this great idea just isn't as easy as Putin hoped but he sure isn't going to budge either.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Conspiratiorist posted:

The country is already flooded with domestic ATGMs so sending them Javelins is just a small step up over fresh German helmets.

Not really, all missiles aren't equal. I don't know of any Ukrainian made fire and forget, thermal targeting, top attack missiles likeJavelin or Spike. They can't be jammed or shot down and there's no laser warning to the target like with older generation missiles.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

CommieGIR posted:

"Finally, the chip shortage was solved by second hand electronics from Ukrainian Javelin sales"

So that's why my PlayStation 5 shot through the window and blew up my neighbour's Škoda :ms:

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Release the Trump piss tape, Putin!

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

quarantinethepast posted:

Wouldn't Russia simply seek to grab rebel regions in Ukraine like the Donbass? Annex the eastern half of the country and leave the west. What else does Russia want?

This is already the case de facto. Who is going to recognise such reimagining of Russo-Ukrainian border when they still haven't recognised the previous annexation of Ukrainian turf? Doing so would result in even deeper economic rift with the west, what would Putin gain from it?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

FishBulbia posted:

what do the symbols mean

this is literally illegible to me

Red icons are peacekeeping forces. Areas without red icons are currently terrorised by western homofascist mobs. HTH

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Sinteres posted:

lmao that Western media are pretending that guy's a serious person. Whether it's deliberate propaganda or just ignorance, it should be pretty embarrassing either way.

Pretty impressive publicity work, though. At some other time this kind of red herring would have been lost in the swarm of bigger news about Kremlin's and Nato's statements and actions. But now maybe because of the Olympics there was just enough of a lull that an old man's ramblings would make global news.

Not that it's surprising. Media are well known for their lemmings like behaviour where if one reports something then everyone will follow, no matter how stupid it is.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
One thing that isn't getting enough mention when the Crimea is discussed, is Sevastopol. The original lease contract on the naval bases there was until 2017, but in 2010 Viktor Yanukovich continued the contract until 2042. This move wasn't popular in Ukraine, to say the least. When Yanukovich was ousted the fate of Russia's Black Sea Fleet's established base became uncertain. I doubt that Russian admirals loved the original contract over the division of the fleet and bases and paying rent and all that, but the idea of possibly having to abandon the Crimea was unfathomable. It's perfectly situated, and Soviet Union invested heavily in those bases.

In hindsight, this should have been resolved in the 1990's, but how could they. Both nations were busted, Ukraine was happy to receive some compensation from Russia for the rent, and moving the fleet from Sevastopol was unrealistic (just withdrawing land forces from the Baltic bases took years, you have to build new accommodations first).

Also in hindsight, this could still have been avoided, perhaps, if certain major powers had relied more on the institutions of United Nations and the rule of international law somewhere around 2003... I'm not saying that the invasion of Iraq by Bush and Blair justifies anything that Putin has done, but it apparently gave him the signal that yep, anything goes, power is it's own justification and the UN can't do anything about it.

Nenonen fucked around with this message at 00:54 on Feb 9, 2022

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Meanwhile in the tiny satrapy of Finland...

The chairman of the Parliamentary Committee of Foreign Affairs, Mika Niikko (The Finns, a right wing conservative party) tweeted on Tuesday that Macron or some other "wise man" of the west should defuse the situation by telling Ukraine that they will not become a Nato member. As a background, he's a Pentacostal conservative who's previously been claimed to be influenced by China because of his business ties there.

This tweet was immediately shot down by everyone, including his own party, as it was opposite to Finland's official stance, and due to his position in the committee he should have been more careful about his messaging. Soon after, he resigned from the chair.

Now TF is proposing for the position their previous party leader, Jussi Halla-aho ("the Master" as the alt-right pepes call him). Halla-aho is an agnostic PhD of Old Church Slavonic and also a conscientous objector to conscription (although he's later regretted this) and also plays speed metal in a band called Blasphemia. He's been convicted to fines of hate speech against Muslims and Somalians, who he wrote in his blog are pedophiles and robbers. So, a very nice bloke overall.

Anyway, he has a very different view to Russia, saying that all negotiations should be ended because Russia is not interested in actual negotiations, period. He also speaks Ukrainian and has worked in Finnish embassy in Kyiv, so weirdly the racist party had the right person to fix this incident.

https://twitter.com/Halla_aho/status/1491325273702551555

(response to Ukrainian ambassador in Finland)

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Brown Moses posted:

Let's see how future Conservative Prime Minister candidate Liz Truss is doing negotiating with the Russians
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1491771623497777159

What an insane meeting. One is the stooge of a power hungry madman, trying in every possible way to humiliate and discredit Britain internationally. And the other is Russia's foreign minister.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Ah, the good old WORI (Westerns Out, Russians In) storage plan

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Discendo Vox posted:

As a note in passing, one of the Russian athletes at the Olympics failed a PED test.

That's lovely. As she's just 15 it's quite possible that her coach gave her the substance to get more progress during the training and not disclosing to her what it was. And it's not something that helps a figure skater perform better in a contest, either, just in training according to the article. If that's the case then her career will be done for and the coach will probably not suffer anything.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Oracle posted:

Maybe that's why Putin's moved up the invasion. You won't waive the testing failure for our athlete fine, we're not going to make sure your games aren't one-upped in the news by our invasion, screw you Xi! WE HAD A DEAL!

Oh, has Vova moved on from rhytmic gymnasts now? Granted Alina Kabaeva is getting a bit old for him.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

QuoProQuid posted:

Yeah, my take here is that this skater is underage and has been failed by all the adults around her. I'm unclear as to why her sample, which was submitted in December, was only tested yesterday, one day after her event.

I could be wrong, I have only casual understanding of the subject, but while they take samples from registered athletes along the road to the games, they don't always analyse the samples until after the performance? Because laboratory capacity is limited and there is little need to analyse the piss of someone who was dropped out of the games or someone who ended 49th. Even if sometimes this can lead to an athlete not participating or not finishing, like happened at FIS Nordic World Ski Championships 2001 when Finnish skiers were found to have used a banned blood plasma expander.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Putin wants to appear unpredictable. Which has the intended effect - you really can't predict him. This works both for diplomacy (to a degree) and militarily. Now that he's been diplomatically stonewalled, the question is if he's really going to go full hog or just do some demonstration of force. Who knows!

If Russia invades, I feel like I will have to go throw some rotten eggs at their local consulate or something. That'll show him.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

steinrokkan posted:

It's not as much that it's necessarily a bluff, but rather that there has to be a certain standard for deciding when we've moved from the threats and signalling stage to the "Alea iacta est" stage, and so far nothing of the sort has happened.

And further it's not easy to tell from the news feed if something really decisive has happened. Western governments apparently are highly concerned, but those same governments totally misjudged the security situation in Afghanistan last summer and had to do panic evacuations from Kabul. Maybe they are now leaning on the safe side. Or maybe this time they have a clear vision of what's to come.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
It's unfathomable that there could be a war in Ukraine - Russia has surrounded the country with peace keepers!

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Britain is also pulling out all of their military instructors. Now who will show them how to integrate a tea kettle into a main battle tank? :saddumb:

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
It's not like Zelenski has a wealth of options even if he believes USA's assessment. Ukraine has been preparing for Russia invading them for years now but in the end you have to wait for something to happen. Russia could attack now, or a week from now. They could attack on all fronts, or just from one or two directions, or just use air and artillery, or start with hybrid attacks and slowly escalate from there. All of these require a different reaction and Ukraine can't act pre-emptively.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Sinteres posted:

You think Putin's a liar in every other instance, but unwaveringly claim to believe that nothing short of every single item on Russia's list of demands would have had to be met before they'd even consider not invading. I just don't think that's plausible, and that getting some wins either would have provided Putin with an off ramp if he was looking for one, or offered a path to materially improving Russia's circumstances (if removal of sanctions was on the table as part of a process of reducing tensions) that the cost of foregoing that on top of new sanctions would have been too blatantly unreasonable for him to push forward.

Russia is doing the same sing and dance as GWB and Blair did with Iraq on weapons of mass destruction. These are not demands, they are just a game to get to a point where calm Putin can just say that he's sorry that Ukraine and Nato can't be discussed with and he has no other options but to defend Russia by invading Ukraine. It's all a show.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Flavahbeast posted:

We don't really know what was offered. If a block on Ukraine joining nato would have ended the war then I personally think that's a fine trade, but it's not clear to me that deal was on the table

Russia already agreed never to invade Ukraine in exchange for nuclear disarmament. Maybe this time they meant it!

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Sinteres posted:

I'm glad everyone will have a clear conscience regardless of the outcome then I guess.

As if this gay dead comedy forum has an influence on Putin's mind. It's all on his conscience in case you need to be reminded.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Russia has announced that their Pacific Fleet had to drive an American submarine out of their waters. According to the statement the sub didn't follow a prompt to leave but had to be chased away.

Read this in Finnish media. My understanding is that this involves dropping small explosives into water so that the target gets a clear signal that they are detected and not wanted, but small enough that there is no real risk.

It's interesting that they know that it was the Americans, but not surprising.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

steinrokkan posted:

Stingers are antiquated, and the Soviets already knew how to counteract then in the Afghan war, so that doesn't seem like such a big deal... The question with javelins is, would the troops even be able to use them? Did they have enough time? Were they even given enough to do some test shooting?

As for Javelins, they have been delivered to Ukraine since months ago. With western instructors in the country first giving training to Ukrainian officers who then train their own men, I would expect there has been time to train operators to use them at least in theory. How many have had an opportunity to fire a hot round at a practise target is another matter.

And for Stinger, the Strelas and Iglas that ex-USSR armies use are just as 'antiquated'. All infrared homing missiles can be countered for, but that doesn't matter. They don't give an explicit warning like radar guided missiles, so they are always dangerous to low flying aircraft. And even when a helicopter or an attack aircraft has time to use flares, they only carry so many of them. A ground unit with lots of MANPADS has a means of keeping enemy choppers and ground attack planes at a distance, or inflicting losses on them.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
United States denies the Russian claim of a US submarine being in their waters. I wonder if USA handles their documents better than UK last summer when HMS Defender had a bit of an encounter in the disputed waters around Crimea:

quote:

On 27 June, secret documents relating to the passage of HMS Defender through Ukraine's territorial waters were discovered at a bus stop in Kent. These documents revealed that the Royal Navy considered different hypothetical reactions from Russia in response to the ship's passage and was prepared for the possibility that Russia may respond in an aggressive manner.[16] The senior civil servant who lost the files had his security clearance suspended. He had been due to become a United Kingdom ambassador to NATO.[17]

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Volunteers participating in defense training in Lviv.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
This situation could be defused if any of the big actors tweeted "launching nukes... NOW!!!" followed by "just kidding lol" a few minutes later. Everyone would just have a good laugh!

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

CommieGIR posted:

Still don't see how it doesn't become a terrible idea: Crypto is VERY slow to process, its super inflationary values make it practically worthless as a base.

Actually it's deflationary, because there is only a restricted amount of bits-o'coin and some of them even go missing forever due to mistakes because it's a stupid system. This is what makes it useless as a currency: there is no incentive to invest bitcoins to something more productive let alone use them in consumption, the best strategy is to take bank loan, put it all in bitcoin and HODL ХОДЛ.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Looks like there’s a moderately large protest against Tokayev in Almaty.

The ongoing Beijing winter games brings to mind that Almaty is famous for its Medeu ice rink where multiple speed skating world records were broken in the 1950-60's.

COINCIDENCE???

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Suppose tomorrow Putin gave the order to bring the troops at the border back to garrisons and demobilize - have there been any calculations of the approximate cost of this 'exercise' to Russia?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Actually, Nato secret article 420/69 states that USA has a responsibility to defend all the founding members of United Nations by a nuclear first strike. And unfortunately the Ukrainian SSR was one of the UN founders.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

CMYK BLYAT! posted:

https://twitter.com/CreativeCorazon/status/1492773179294691333

while the symbolism makes sense, this is still one of the stranger protest photos i have seen

Now fruits are taking the streets. Obvious western homo propaganda.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Apparently in the most recent phone call with Biden, Zelensky invited Joe to come to visit him in Kyiv to send a signal. The White House didn't report this but the Ukrainian president's office did.

Actually that would make for an interesting scenario. How would USA react to Russian army killing the POTUS who was acting as a human shield?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

?

???

Wrong thread?????? :confused:


Better not show this to Liz Truss

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Libluini posted:

In other news, Ukrainian ambassadors asks for 12000 anti-tank missiles from Germany, receives awkward silence

To be fair, their other demands are more sensible, like radio equipment and helmets. I'm not really sure the Bundeswehr even has 12k anti-tank missiles left in storage, though. They may get disappointed on that front.

The amount may indicate that it's about Panzerfaust 3's which is an RPG rather than a guided missile, those are more affordable. The phrase Panzerabwehrraketten could mean either.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Russia should have followed Belarus's example and they would be an industrial powerhouse right now :belarus:

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Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
In Budapest, about 2500 protestors gathered to defend freedom of speech in... Finland? :crossarms: Yes actually, the Finnish Christian Democratic MP and former interior minister Päivi Räsänen has been at court today in Helsinki facing accusations of incitement against homosexuals. Defense claims she was just citing the Bible and therefore this falls within religious freedom but the prosecutor claims that as a political authority she should think of other ways of addressing sexual minorities than painting them as immoral degenerates.

She has received support from a bunch of US senators, too. If she's found guilty and charged with fines, then whoopee, maybe USA will call us the den of evil or something and send Marines to liberate us! :dance:

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