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 WHERE CAN I WATCH THIS? http://www.c-span.org/ might have coverage throughout the night In addition, these streaming sites often show the cable networks, which will be covering it. http://www.livenewschat.eu/ http://www.stream2watch.co/live-tv/us/ http://www.hulkusc.com/ Please suggest in the thread any other streams. RESULTS http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president Please suggest other sources. IRC https://client00.chat.mibbit.com/?server=EU.synirc.net%3A%2B7001&channel=%23Poligoon REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES
6 AM ET on March 5, the Maine caucuses begin 7 AM ET, the Kentucky and Louisiana contests begin 11 AM ET (10 CST), the Kansas caucuses begin 3 PM ET (2 CST), polls close in Kansas 4 PM ET, polls close in Kentucky 8 PM ET, polls close in Louisana 8:30 PM ET, polls close in Maine DELEGATES AT STAKE Kansas: 40 proportional statewide and per district. No viability threshold Kentucky: 46 proportional with district delegates based on the statewide vote, so the districts don't matter. 5% threshold Louisiana: 46 proportional statewide and per district. 20% threshold Maine: 23 winner-take-most based solely on statewide vote. 10% threshold 
Jewel Repetition has issued a correction as of 21:01 on Mar 5, 2016 |
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Mar 5, 2016 10:59
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, Senator from Texas
, Governor of Ohio
, Senator from Florida
, Constitutionally Eligible
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| # ? May 21, 2024 13:39 |
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So Louisiana is the biggest deal of the four today, because there's a chance only Trump or Trump+1 will get any delegates from there. Rubio doesn't poll above 15 in any of the recent LA polls, which means unless he massively over performs, his hole grows bigger.
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Mar 5, 2016 11:29
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Yoshifan823 posted:unless he massively over performs, his hole grows bigger. Well Rubio is a 'Chocker', not a clencher.
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Mar 5, 2016 12:01
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The general idea is that Kansas is Cruz country and LA is probably Trump, but what are we expecting out of Maine and Kentucky?
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Mar 5, 2016 12:48
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Pillowpants posted:The general idea is that Kansas is Cruz country and LA is probably Trump, but what are we expecting out of Maine and Kentucky? I feel like Kentucky is probably more similar to the rest of the SEC states than the rust belt or the midwest, so probably Trump-Cruz-Rubio-Kasich. I know Maine is a little more "country" than NH/VT, so I think Trump will win there too, especially with the LePage endorsement; even if he's not super well liked by the state as a whole, the people who do like him are right up Trump's alley. I could see Kasich picking up at least 3rd, and maybe even 2nd there.
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Mar 5, 2016 13:02
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Yoshifan823 posted:I feel like Kentucky is probably more similar to the rest of the SEC states than the rust belt or the midwest, so probably Trump-Cruz-Rubio-Kasich. I know Maine is a little more "country" than NH/VT, so I think Trump will win there too, especially with the LePage endorsement; even if he's not super well liked by the state as a whole, the people who do like him are right up Trump's alley. I could see Kasich picking up at least 3rd, and maybe even 2nd there. Maine is pretty similar to Massachusetts at least in the area where everyone lives. The rest of the state north of Bangor could pass as SEC country. I think it's pretty fertile territory for Trump, but I haven't heard anything about the ground game there.
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Mar 5, 2016 13:11
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It's worth pointing out that all except LA are closed caucuses so expect Trump to underperform. Even LA is a closed primary, and the only closed primary we've had so far was OK where Trump underperformed massively (see here).
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Mar 5, 2016 13:14
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I'm going to win a caucus today!
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Mar 5, 2016 14:12
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John Kasich posted:I'm going to win a caucus today! Sure you are, kiddo. *pats head*
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Mar 5, 2016 14:25
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Another fun fact about LA: there's a 20% threshold, but the delegates revoked from anyone getting less than 20% aren't awarded to the candidates who get over 20% - they're sent to the convention unbound. This may or may not be in violation of RNC rules.
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Mar 5, 2016 14:25
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Pillowpants posted:The general idea is that Kansas is Cruz country and LA is probably Trump, but what are we expecting out of Maine and Kentucky? Trump is going to sweep Louisiana and Kentucky, I'm almost certain of it. Predicting a Cruz win in Kansas, caucus + Midwestern evangelicals is not a favorable combination for Trump. Maine is a caucus but the Northeast in general is very friendly to Trump, so I'm predicting a close Trump victory. e: I did not know Kentucky was a caucus, still predicting a Trump win but could be close.
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Mar 5, 2016 14:28
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Mar 5, 2016 14:33
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Who wants another numbers-laden effort post? YES YOU DO. So, I've been giving rough projections of delegate counts based on polling data and some assumptions. I did it for Super Tuesday, using three scenarios (a pro-Trump, pro-Rubio, and pro-Cruz). The Pro-Cruz Scenario came fairly close to the real delegate counts, with the only huge miss being overestimating how well Rubio would do; he cratered below any of my scenarios, Trump was near the bottom of his range, and Cruz and Kasich slightly overperformed my expectations. I did the same thing for the Republican thread for March 5th-March 15th back on Wednesday in this post with a "pro Trump" and "anti Trump" scenario. Trump Scenario- Carson's supporters break 35% to Cruz, 25% each to Trump and Rubio, and 15% to Kasich. Undecideds go 30% each to Cruz and Rubio, 25% to Trump, and 15% to Kasich. This is the scenario that basically sees the status quo kept up. It also doesn't see any adjustments to the polls besides throwing Carson and undecided voters into one of the other four pools, and so is likely to be slightly overestimating Trump. I'm starting with the current Green Papers totals of Trump-338, Cruz-236, Rubio-112, Kasich-27. As before, I am using in descending order of weighting/preference an average of February polls, January polls, near-neighbor results, and current RCP national average. The GOP Strikes Back Scenario- Carson's supporters go 30% each to Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich, with just 10% to Trump. Undecideds go 50% to 'whoever seems most likely in their state to beat Trump', 30% to 'whoever seems next most likely to beat Trump', and 20% to Trump hisself. In addition, the polls are UNSKEWED by giving both second and third place +3% relative to Trump. This all represents the non-Trump candidates (except Kasich, who is furiously beating his own drum) basically coming to a tacit alliance to focus resources against Trump and not each other with the overriding goal of forcing a floor fight. The takeaway there was that Trump would finish March 15th with between 650-775 delegates, Cruz between 350 and 425, Rubio 275-300, and Kasich 50-105. My conclusion was that the race needed to fundamentally change, the polls be fundamentally wrong, or even in a set of assumptions hostile to Trump he was going to have a 200+ delegate lead with more than half the delegates awarded and basically knock out Rubio and turn it into an effective two person race with Kasich still waving the moderate flag in the back with a growing chance of being kingmaker. Since Wednesday, we've gotten a bit more polling in on Kansas and Louisiana today, and Mississippi and Michigan soon. There aren't any fundamental changes. Rubio's floor dropped a little, all Trump's numbers dropped a little, and Cruz and Kasich held steady. The fundamental conclusion is the same. But HAS the race changed with the last 48 hours of events? WE'LL FIND OUT TODAY... ON NOT-SO-SUPER SATURDAY!!! But first, a bit of talk about each state. Kansas Kansas has weird rounding rules, and that's actually important. Bear with me before I get to projections. See, Kansas awards 3 delegates to each congressional district, 25 to the state as a whole, and (I think) 3 to the leader. All of those are straight proportional with a 10% threshold. The rounding rules, though, are this: Multiply everyone's fraction of the vote by the number of delegates up for grabs, and then round that DOWN to the nearest whole number, and start adding delegates 1 to the leader, then 1 to second place, et cetera until you have every delegate awarded. Why's this important? Say in one of those CDs, the vote totals are: Trump-32, Cruz-31, Rubio- 24, Kasich-13 In Kansas's rules... well, Trump got 0.96 delegates, that rounds down to 0. Everyone else also rounds down to 0. We add one to the leader, then to second, then to third, and so Trump gets 1, Cruz gets 1, and Rubio gets 1. But if Trump got 34, Cruz 31, Rubio 23, and Kasich 11, all of a sudden Trump's 1.02 rules down to 1 and everyone else rounds down to 0. We add 1 to the leader and 1 to second place, and now it reports Trump-2 delegates, Cruz-1. In a three person race, this is huge. In effect, it makes Kansas's CDs be awarded more like a winner-take-most primary and not proportional. Okay! So that was too much math to explain why Kansas's "proportional" delegate award isn't as proportional as most "proportional" states. So what about the projections? We only have 1 very recent reliable poll that shows Trump +6, one slightly older, smaller sample size poll that shows him +12, and we have Oklahoma (a relatively near neighbor, but more importantly another closed caucus) with Cruz +6. If you just threw those all together with equal weight, you'd come out with about what Scenario 1 expects, while Scenario 2 ends up closer but slightly more pro-Trump to Kansas. Pro-Trump: Trump wins by 3, 35-32. Rubio manages 23, and Kasich surprises people and edges over the relevance threshold with 10.5%. Trump wins 18 delegates- remember, Kansas isn't very proportional- Cruz-12, Rubio-8, Kasich-2. Anti-Trump: Cruz wins by 3, also 35-32, Rubio manages 24, and Kasich falls just UNDER the relevance threshold with 9.5%. Trump still wins 13 delegates, but Cruz takes the state and 18 delegates, while Rubio collects 9. Kentucky Kentucky is ACTUALLY proportional for the entire 46 delegate slate, and uses sane rounding rules. Theshold's only 5%, so Kasich will pick some more up too here. We only have a single poll here and it puts Trump up 13, but we have Tennessee as a similar-neighbor (I can say that, I'm from TN) that gave Trump +23. Put that together and, well, if Trump loses the state things have gone terribly wrong. The two scenarios are broadly similar, with only the margin of victory differing, and given the proportional format the delegate totals are pretty similar. In pro-Trump, he makes 40% and gets 19 delegates; otherwise he drops to 36% and gets about 17 delegates, with Rubio narrowly taking second with 12-14, Cruz third with about 11, and Kasich snatching 4. Maine We don't know loving poo poo. The last poll was in November and showed CHRISTIE leading by 13- and that was a tiny sample size poll! It is at least a small number of delegates (23), and since nobody's going to hit 50% it's also proportional, meaning a huge error in projection here will result in like a 2 delegate swing. Won't talk about it much for that reason. Trump wins, probably, maybe, and takes between a delegate lead of like 2 over second place or maybe like 4. Whatever. Puerto Rico We still don't know loving poo poo. Zero polls. It usually goes for the Establishment Favorite pretty heavily, so I shrugged my shoulders and gave Rubio 16, Cruz 6, and Kasich 1 in both scenarios. Think I'm wrong? Probably I am. Louisiana WE KNOW poo poo! We have 3 good polls, and they show Trump +15. He's almost certainly going to win here. It's similar to Kansas (proportional by CD and statewide) but with a 20% threshold, which will cripple Rubio. Rubio will do well enough in probably 2 of the more urban/moderate CDs to scavenge a few delegates, but this is all about the Trump-Cruz showdown. The polls are clearly Trumpian, but the question is margins. Pro-Trump the RCP average is pretty much right, Trump wins by 15, and takes up 27 delegates to Cruz's 17 and Rubio's 2. Anti-Trump Trump underperforms by about 5, taking 25 delegates to Cruz's 19 and Rubio's 2. (edit: I know about the unbound delegates. I don't think they'll matter, since my read is that this is in fact against the rules.) Final totals for the day? Pro-Trump scenario he takes 4 of the 5 contests, all but Puerto Rico, and gets 74 delegates to Cruz's 51, Rubio's 43, and Kasich's 10. Anti-Trump scenario he takes Kentucky, Louisiana, and Maine, while Cruz takes Kansas and Rubio takes PR. Trump gets 64 delegates, Cruz 59, Rubio 47, and Kasich 8. Right now, if I had to guess, I'd say the Anti-Trump scenario is probably my projection. If Trump underperforms that significantly- say if Cruz beats him on delegates today- that'll be a sign that events have finally damaged him and fundamentally changed the race, giving Rubio hope. If Trump even after the last 48 hours hits the anti-Trump scenario still, he's still in very good shape through the middle of the month overall. Edit: I should stress that I am a total amateur at this. Accuracy guaranteed or your money back Mukaikubo has issued a correction as of 14:35 on Mar 5, 2016 |
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Mar 5, 2016 14:33
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The Anti-Trump Equation
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Mar 5, 2016 14:44
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Korelle posted:The Anti-Trump Equation Next congressional band name confirmed 
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Mar 5, 2016 14:49
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Good rundown. I got pretty similar projections on my FB Group. With Maine, I think it will be similar to Mass. Southern Maine is where 70% of the state lives and they're mostly MA Transplants, and the remaining 30% lives in Alabama like conditions. there's a large portion of people who hate Hispanic people north of Bangor.
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Mar 5, 2016 14:54
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Rubio spending time in San Juan this week must mean their internals have shown he has a chance to take 50%, which would give him all 23 of Puerto Rico's delegates. Which is ironic since the hedge fund owners who hold the debt over the island are major donors to his campaign. The more unlikely scenario would be the internal polling indicating he's barely getting 20%, which is the cutoff, but that's probably not true at all.
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Mar 5, 2016 15:04
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gonna wrap my hands around this meaty caucus and just work it baby
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Mar 5, 2016 15:21
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Also wouldn't trump underperforming just be a further sign that caucuses are stupid.
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Mar 5, 2016 15:33
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I don't care if your child is on the point of dying after a long struggle with cancer. You have to get out there and vote Trump.
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Mar 5, 2016 15:37
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Mukaikubo posted:Pro-Trump scenario: Trump wins
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Mar 5, 2016 15:51
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In a way, observable spacetime since the big bang is all one big pro trump scenario
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Mar 5, 2016 15:54
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crazy cloud posted:In a way, observable spacetime since the big bang is all one big pro trump scenario dark matter discovered to be just more Trump voters
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Mar 5, 2016 15:56
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My favorite extreme delegate apportionment scenarios (KS math edition).quote:Trump - 65 That gives Trump 2 delegates, Cruz 1. Whereas quote:Cruz - 41 That gives Cruz all 3 delegates. I also didn't see it mentioned, but this is Kansas's first caucus! Freedom! Democracy! Primaries cost too much state money!
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Mar 5, 2016 16:06
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Al! posted:dark matter discovered to be just more Trump voters Dark matter is basically the silent majority of matter 
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Mar 5, 2016 16:08
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Al! posted:dark matter discovered to be just more Trump voters Universe confirmed to be constantly getting yooger
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Mar 5, 2016 16:29
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Basically pulling for Cruz to keep this thing close so it goes to a contested convention at this point. This is the true maximum comedy option, rather than a Trump sweep.
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Mar 5, 2016 17:44
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Slowpoke! posted:Basically pulling for Cruz to keep this thing close so it goes to a contested convention at this point. This is the true maximum comedy option, rather than a Trump sweep. Same. At this point I don't think it's going to happen unless Rubio drops and a majority of his support goes to Cruz, or vice versa (which is less likely to play out that way) and start gobbling up more delegates, with Kasich staying in just long enough to grab all of Ohio's delegates and then drop out. So basically unless somehow the Trumpmentum is broken (  ) he will have the majority of delgates by the middle of next month at the latest.Failing that I am holding out hope for a rules committee ratfuck which, while less likely, would be even more outrageous and brazen leading to maximum carnage at the RNC.
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Mar 5, 2016 18:03
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Slowpoke! posted:Basically pulling for Cruz to keep this thing close so it goes to a contested convention at this point. This is the true maximum comedy option, rather than a Trump sweep. Contested convention would be the peak hilarity option, so I hope it happens. What does a riot look like when half the participants are in Rascal scooters?
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Mar 5, 2016 18:06
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I hope Trump severely underperforms his polling today because they're caucuses and closed primaries, leading to a series of Cruz victories, and the narrative then shifts to say that voters are finally picking up on Trump's 'flexibility' as a negative
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Mar 5, 2016 18:09
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http://www.stream2watch.co/live-tv/us/c-span-live-stream howdy doody whining on stage rn
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Mar 5, 2016 18:13
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just said the 2nd amendment is to protect yourself from terrorism. what is that even supposed to mean
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Mar 5, 2016 18:15
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 (from the politoons thread but originally from yospos for some reason) Von Sloneker has issued a correction as of 18:23 on Mar 5, 2016 |
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Mar 5, 2016 18:19
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Al! posted:http://www.stream2watch.co/live-tv/us/c-span-live-stream rubio sounds like a whiny teenager when he's speaking
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Mar 5, 2016 18:20
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I want Trump to sweep today with Rubio coming in fourth everywhere, leading to him failing on Tuesday and then Romney announces an independent run
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Mar 5, 2016 18:26
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Pillowpants posted:I want Trump to sweep today with Rubio coming in fourth everywhere, leading to him failing on Tuesday and then Romney announces an independent run rubio is killing it in his hugbox right now, seeing his reality crushed immediately afterward would be nice.
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Mar 5, 2016 18:27
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Al! posted:rubio is killing it in his hugbox right now, seeing his reality crushed immediately afterward would be nice. I thought they'd been dropping him since ST.
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Mar 5, 2016 18:31
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happy super saturday. A little late on this - is that how CNN actually displayed this story or is it a photoshop? lol
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Mar 5, 2016 18:33
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Marco Rubio is an actual turd. I hope he gets interrogated...enhancedly?
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Mar 5, 2016 18:37
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| # ? May 21, 2024 13:39 |
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The NY Times and decision desk links in the OP only show Super Tuesday results right now. Any idea when they'll switch to today's stuff?
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Mar 5, 2016 18:37
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