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the kentucky GOP seems to be in an alternate universe where Yeb and Carson are still in the race and Rubio and Kasich aren't http://rpk.org/caucus/results/
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Mar 5, 2016 18:39
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Kentucky Republicans too lazy to update their website, could be fertile ground for Rubio.
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Mar 5, 2016 18:43
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Todays Results: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results
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Mar 5, 2016 19:01
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https://twitter.com/amanda_adkins/status/706158121807294465 looks like big turnout everywhere.
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Mar 5, 2016 19:03
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loving Carson at CPAC, endorse someone who is not Republican
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Mar 5, 2016 19:08
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Did Trump win yet?
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Mar 5, 2016 19:15
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Hollismason posted:loving Carson at CPAC, endorse someone who is not Republican He actually had a pretty good diagnosis of why inequality is bad, how it formed, etc. But of course he said the solution was to cut taxes.
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Mar 5, 2016 19:16
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As a Kentuckian, let me tell you there are a lot of stupid people here. Trump will probably win KY by his widest margin yet. Unless enough really, really stupid people vote JEB or Carson I guess.
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Mar 5, 2016 19:28
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My guess... Trump takes Kentucky, Louisiana, and Maine. Cruz takes Kansas. Delegates will be tighter than the win/loss.
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Mar 5, 2016 19:38
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Montasque posted:My guess... This is probably right. But Trump sweeping or losing Maine to KASICH [buckle up!!] as well as KS to Cruz would be hilarious as well.
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Mar 5, 2016 19:41
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Will Rubio win anything today? Santorum campaigned in Kansas for him, lol.
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Mar 5, 2016 19:44
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dorkasaurus_rex posted:Will Rubio win anything today? Santorum campaigned in Kansas for him, lol. He may have an ok showing in some caucuses but...nah
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Mar 5, 2016 19:45
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dorkasaurus_rex posted:Will Rubio win anything today? Santorum campaigned in Kansas for him, lol. No. He most likely wont win anything. And yes 'lol' is the correct response.
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Mar 5, 2016 19:46
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https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/706185870194425857
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Mar 5, 2016 19:47
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As long as Trump wins no less than two and Rubio wins no more than one, I will accept any outcome of today as sufficiently chaotic.
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Mar 5, 2016 19:47
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If Cruz wins Maine I dont even know.
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Mar 5, 2016 19:50
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Montasque posted:If Cruz wins Maine I dont even know. Turnout in Waldo County was 3x 2012. Maine will probably be super chaotic. e: also the ideal situation is for Trump to win Kansas and Cruz to win Maine.
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Mar 5, 2016 19:51
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Cruz ain't winning poo poo in New England. Don't forget it's Harry Enten, who gave Trump a negative percentage chance to win the nomination.
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Mar 5, 2016 19:52
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Phlegmish posted:Cruz ain't winning poo poo in New England. I know Harry is an eternal Trump doubter but the numbers don't lie. With that said that county was a Paul county, and Maine did go to Romney in 2012. Schnorkles posted:Turnout in Waldo County was 3x 2012. Ideally Trump would want to win both, but I think it will be one or the other, or neither!
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Mar 5, 2016 19:58
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Harry Enten has been stuck on the Denial stage of grief for months now, long after Nate Silver moved on.
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Mar 5, 2016 19:58
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Montasque posted:I know Harry is an eternal Trump doubter but the numbers don't lie. With that said that county was a Paul county, and Maine did go to Romney in 2012. I haven't seen any numbers on it, but I feel like Cruz is probably more attractive to libertarian types than Trump is.
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Mar 5, 2016 19:59
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I will admit that I'm surprised at how strong Cruz still is, a week ago I was expecting it to be a Rubio-Trump one-on-one by now. But Maine really isn't a Cruz type of state. Hope it's just a one-off.
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Mar 5, 2016 20:00
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Even in the pro-Trump projection (thanks for the run-down, Mukaikubo), Trump isn't securing a majority of delegates and doesn't have a majority of delegates going into this. Considering he really needs that majority to avoid a ratfucking at the convention, is he really on a trajectory to win the nomination right now? Is the idea that his constant first-place finishes will erode support for the other candidates (especially Rubio who keeps declaring 2nd place victory?) with enough time left to start bagging majorities? Are there enough winner-take-all prizes late in the primary that so long as he can lock in his 35%-40% support before then he can make up the difference? What's the path to victory for Trump, assuming average performance today?
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Mar 5, 2016 20:01
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Rick Santorum also won a county in Maine in 2012 (lol).
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Mar 5, 2016 20:01
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Dolash posted:Even in the pro-Trump projection (thanks for the run-down, Mukaikubo), Trump isn't securing a majority of delegates and doesn't have a majority of delegates going into this. Considering he really needs that majority to avoid a ratfucking at the convention, is he really on a trajectory to win the nomination right now? Is the idea that his constant first-place finishes will erode support for the other candidates (especially Rubio who keeps declaring 2nd place victory?) with enough time left to start bagging majorities? Are there enough winner-take-all prizes late in the primary that so long as he can lock in his 35%-40% support before then he can make up the difference? Winning the WTA states on the 15th puts him in prime position to win.
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Mar 5, 2016 20:01
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If Trump doesn't win one it's just because he's done so much winning he's tired of it
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Mar 5, 2016 20:02
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Dolash posted:Even in the pro-Trump projection (thanks for the run-down, Mukaikubo), Trump isn't securing a majority of delegates and doesn't have a majority of delegates going into this. Considering he really needs that majority to avoid a ratfucking at the convention, is he really on a trajectory to win the nomination right now? Is the idea that his constant first-place finishes will erode support for the other candidates (especially Rubio who keeps declaring 2nd place victory?) with enough time left to start bagging majorities? Are there enough winner-take-all prizes late in the primary that so long as he can lock in his 35%-40% support before then he can make up the difference? There's a bunch of winner-take-all primaries coming up on the 15th, if he wins Florida and Ohio it's over.
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Mar 5, 2016 20:02
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Dolash posted:Even in the pro-Trump projection (thanks for the run-down, Mukaikubo), Trump isn't securing a majority of delegates and doesn't have a majority of delegates going into this. Considering he really needs that majority to avoid a ratfucking at the convention, is he really on a trajectory to win the nomination right now? Is the idea that his constant first-place finishes will erode support for the other candidates (especially Rubio who keeps declaring 2nd place victory?) with enough time left to start bagging majorities? Are there enough winner-take-all prizes late in the primary that so long as he can lock in his 35%-40% support before then he can make up the difference? 940 delegates are allocated to winner-take-all states. Trump needs 899 more delegates for a majority. e: maths Zohar has issued a correction as of 20:08 on Mar 5, 2016 |
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Mar 5, 2016 20:04
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If he has 40-49% of the delegates and they manoeuver him out of the nomination, he has the moral right to set up a third-party run.
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Mar 5, 2016 20:06
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Phlegmish posted:I will admit that I'm surprised at how strong Cruz still is, a week ago I was expecting it to be a Rubio-Trump one-on-one by now. But Maine really isn't a Cruz type of state. Hope it's just a one-off. Maine Republicans are Tea Party central. They don't exactly fit Cruz but they're very close. The format also helps him. It'll be peak chaos over there in any case because after the Paulites hijacked their state party in '12 they reformed the rules. This is the first time Maine GOP votes actually count as a 1:1 ratio and the turnout numbers from four years ago were off by a lot.
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Mar 5, 2016 20:07
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Phlegmish posted:If he has 40-49% of the delegates and they manoeuver him out of the nomination, he has the moral right to set up a third-party run. Something to keep in mind is that this won't just piss off Trump supporters, it'll piss off the supporters of whoever doesn't get crowned the nominee among Cruz/Rubio/Kasich.
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Mar 5, 2016 20:17
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Montasque posted:My guess... Probably the most reasonable assumption however I think Kansas will be super close
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Mar 5, 2016 20:21
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Phlegmish posted:If he has 40-49% of the delegates and they manoeuver him out of the nomination, he has the moral right to set up a third-party run. If he has 49% he's the nominee, because there are already three uncommitted state delegations plus about a hundred and fifty unbound GOP hacks at the convention and some of them are gonna defect. If the closest contender only has 20%-30% he probably needs like 45%.
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Mar 5, 2016 20:27
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Narciss posted:Something to keep in mind is that this won't just piss off Trump supporters, it'll piss off the supporters of whoever doesn't get crowned the nominee among Cruz/Rubio/Kasich. Honestly, it might even piss off a lot of Republicans who didn't support Trump but don't respect the GOP using dirty tricks to keep him out.
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Mar 5, 2016 20:29
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i bet rubio wins, like, the congressional district in new orleans and not much more it'll be interesting to see if cruz really starts gaining momentum as the anti-trump after this. kasich would need some portland votes to come out of this with any sort of positive momentum, i would think kasich and rubio might split the areas they could both win and then each of them will blame the other and the candidates the gop establishment hates above all others will have a large majority of the delegates and all the momentum turnout sure seems to be continuing to be high. i'm interested to see what the closed primary/caucus heavy day does to trump vis a vis his polling margins, as was stated before
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Mar 5, 2016 20:33
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Dolash posted:Honestly, it might even piss off a lot of Republicans who didn't support Trump but don't respect the GOP using dirty tricks to keep him out. And maybe even help him in the general, if he takes it seriously. "I was too centrist for the GOP so they pulled the rug out from under me and nominated a donor-appointed stooge. Vote for me, I'm the only one not bought by billionaires."
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Mar 5, 2016 20:34
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oystertoadfish posted:i bet rubio wins, like, the congressional district in new orleans and not much more This would be an absolute disaster because it would hand Trump Florida.
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Mar 5, 2016 20:35
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Phlegmish posted:Cruz ain't winning poo poo in New England. I wouldn't have a problem with Enten but he consistently talks poo poo on Trump multiple times per day. He can't help himself. In between every useful nugget of information there are about 10 anti-Trump tweets.
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Mar 5, 2016 20:36
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i see the democratic discussion today has been, shall we say, walled out of this thread
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Mar 5, 2016 20:42
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oystertoadfish posted:i see the democratic discussion today has been, shall we say, walled out of this thread If you want to read what the dem discussion would be feel free to read the last 100 pages of the dem primary thread, which is the same 6 arguments repeating the same points forever like an ouroboros of poo poo posters.
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Mar 5, 2016 20:51
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