KS, LA, KY, ME GOP PRIMARIES MAR. 5 3pm ET. "Super Saturday"

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > KS, LA, KY, ME GOP PRIMARIES MAR. 5 3pm ET. "Super Saturday"

fishmech: Jul 16, 2006; by VideoGames; Salad Prong

Ace of Baes posted:

If you want to read what the dem discussion would be feel free to read the last 100 pages of the dem primary thread, which is the same 6 arguments repeating the same points forever like an ouroboros of poo poo posters.

yeah bernouts should just submit already

# ? Mar 5, 2016 20:52

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# ? May 21, 2024 15:40

Dilbert As FUCK: Sep 8, 2007; by Cowcaster; Pillbug

oystertoadfish posted:

i see the democratic discussion today has been, shall we say, walled out of this thread

Nothing really to talk about with the DNC, Hillary is going to grab the nomination. In the RNC it's a bit more mixed, not to mention watching trump is fairly amusing by itself.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 20:55

oystertoadfish: Jun 17, 2003

yeah i'm alright with it, their results from the kansas-nebraska territory might be interesting for them. but whatever

# ? Mar 5, 2016 20:58

Phlegmish: Jul 2, 2011

Dem enthusiasts can start a thread if they like. I'm a fan of the segregated thread idea.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:00

Mitt Romney: Nov 9, 2005; dumb and bad

oystertoadfish posted:

i see the democratic discussion today has been, shall we say, walled out of this thread

Not competitive anymore and very limited info but:

- Clinton unexpectedly took a liberal legislative district in NE by 62-38.
- Sanders won two other LDs in Omaha by large margins.
- Large turnout in Topeka for Clinton

Looking like a 65-35 win for Sanders in NE probably and who knows about KS.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:03

Jewel Repetition: Dec 24, 2012; Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

watwat posted:

Todays Results: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results

Thanks, I've updated the OP.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:11

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

when exactly will we start getting results today from Kansas and Kentucky?

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:12

oystertoadfish: Jun 17, 2003

Phlegmish posted:

Dem enthusiasts can start a thread if they like. I'm a fan of the segregated thread idea.

democrats love segregation so itll work

speaking of segregation i think there's a majority-black LD or three in omaha

i should pull the super tuesday data to see if the curve i built relating sanders support to black % by CD was accurate in other southern states. it will not be in the south texas state senate districts; the curve figures if the district is 0.8% black it'll go like 70% sanders and apparently he lost all those hispanic-heavy electorates. so a sanders/white% would probably be better

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:12

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Never mind, Kansas starting to report.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:13

Montasque: Jul 18, 2003; Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven

Schnorkles posted:

when exactly will we start getting results today from Kansas and Kentucky?

Kansas is coming in - with 400 votes in Cruz is killing it.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:13

Mitt Romney: Nov 9, 2005; dumb and bad

Schnorkles posted:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/706185870194425857

Looks like Cruz might pull off a win in Maine.

https://twitter.com/JamieJmckown/status/706208681558302720

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:13

Phlegmish: Jul 2, 2011

Schnorkles posted:

when exactly will we start getting results today from Kansas and Kentucky?

NYT just updated. Cruz in the lead in Kansas CD1 with 43% :eyepop:

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:13

SpiderHyphenMan: Apr 1, 2010; by Fluffdaddy

Jewel Repetition posted:

3 PM ET (2 CST), polls close in Kansas

4 PM ET, polls close in Kentucky

8 PM ET, polls close in Louisana

8:30 PM ET, polls close in Maine

This does not match up with the NYT report times.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:14

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Cruz winning Kansas and Maine and Trump taking Louisiana and Kentucky is maximum chaos and I love it. :getin:

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:17

Pillowpants: Aug 5, 2006

Mitt Romney posted:

Looks like Cruz might pull off a win in Maine.

https://twitter.com/JamieJmckown/status/706208681558302720

Nobody lives in Hancock cock county haha

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:17

Jewel Repetition: Dec 24, 2012; Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

SpiderHyphenMan posted:

This does not match up with the NYT report times.

I just used the official times from each state's Republican party site.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:18

Zohar: Jul 14, 2013; Good kitty

Cruz is sweeping Maine apparently, somehow

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/706211841295433728

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:19

Mitt Romney: Nov 9, 2005; dumb and bad

Pillowpants posted:

Nobody lives in Hancock cock county haha

Search twitter. Every single county I've seen so far going huge for Cruz. (and see the post above me)

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:21

SpiderHyphenMan: Apr 1, 2010; by Fluffdaddy

Maine is the Louisiana of the northeast so this is good news for Cruz.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:21

Phlegmish: Jul 2, 2011

Cruz winning Maine and Kansas so far, with Marco Roboto nowhere in sight. If it ends up being Trump vs. Cruz all throughout, hahaha

The good part if Cruz somehow ends up winning it is that we get to see him crushed in the general.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:21

OJ MIST 2 THE DICK: Sep 11, 2008; Anytime I need to see your face I just close my eyes
And I am taken to a place
Where your crystal minds and magenta feelings
Take up shelter in the base of my spine
Sweet like a chica cherry cola
-Cheap Trick; Nap Ghost

Someone gif the dude dancing on CNN

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:22

Thump!: Nov 25, 2007; Look, fat, here's the fact, Kulak!

This coming down to a contested run between Congress's most hated Republican and Donald Trump with the Establishment picks waffling in the rear is going to be just wonderful :allears:

gently caress you conservatives, you deserve this poo poo.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:23

Mokelumne Trekka: Nov 22, 2015; Soon.

If Ted Cruz had a shot in Ohio (where its Kasich v Trump) or Florida (Rubio v Trump), I'd say Cruz would have had prospects of catching up to Trump.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:27

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

The longer and bloodier the republican primary is, the better it is for a general.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:27

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Mokelumne Trekka posted:

If Ted Cruz had a shot in Ohio (where its Kasich v Trump) or Florida (Rubio v Trump), I'd say Cruz would have had prospects of catching up to Trump.

Cruz's real problem today is that Kansas is straight proportional and Maine doesn't have many delegates. He can get wins in both and still end up down by ~15 delegates for the day if Trump wins big in Louisiana and Kentucky. It's good for narrative, but doesn't actually help with the real math of the nomination/

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:28

oystertoadfish: Jun 17, 2003

Zohar posted:

Cruz is sweeping Maine apparently, somehow

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/706211841295433728

let's see where these people are

kennebeck has the state capital and the fourth-biggest county in maine so that's kinda meaningful i guess. hancock and waldo are 8 and 11, out of 16
http://www.maine-demographics.com/counties_by_population

looks like 36% of the state lives in cumberland or york
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?...lation+of+maine

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:29

Zohar: Jul 14, 2013; Good kitty

oystertoadfish posted:

let's see where these people are

kennebeck has the state capital and the fourth-biggest county in maine so that's kinda meaningful i guess. hancock and waldo are 8 and 11, out of 16
http://www.maine-demographics.com/counties_by_population

looks like 36% of the state lives in cumberland or york

Cruz won a lot of MN outside Minneapolis so if it's Cruz v. Trump in Maine then Trump might well come out, yeah.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:30

Pillowpants: Aug 5, 2006

The Canadian immigrants in northern Maine will either be nationalists and vote Cruz or stick to racism and vote Trunp.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:31

Mokelumne Trekka: Nov 22, 2015; Soon.

Schnorkles posted:

Cruz's real problem today is that Kansas is straight proportional and Maine doesn't have many delegates. He can get wins in both and still end up down by ~15 delegates for the day if Trump wins big in Louisiana and Kentucky. It's good for narrative, but doesn't actually help with the real math of the nomination/

Agreed. Today isn't a day where much is at stake. I expect Trump and Cruz will be (roughly) the same distance from each other in delegates after today, and Kasich/Rubio will find that their graves are ready for them.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:32

Phlegmish: Jul 2, 2011

Louisiana is going to be really important to the narrative. If he does well there, people can shrug off Trump's losses as the caucus format hurting him. But if he significantly underperforms there as well, it's going to be all about how he's losing steam.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:32

The X-man cometh: Nov 1, 2009

Every Cruz win is a potential Trump meltdown, close or not.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:32

Horseshoe theory: Mar 7, 2005

Pillowpants posted:

The Canadian immigrants in northern Maine will either be nationalists and vote Cruz or stick to racism and vote Trunp.

Why wouldn't they stick to racism and vote for good old Rafael?

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:32

Phlegmish: Jul 2, 2011

The X-man cometh posted:

Every Cruz win is a potential Trump meltdown, close or not.

So far it's not close, Trump is trailing by 15%.

Kasich and Rubio bombing real hard, but I don't think anyone's surprised by that

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:34

Prorat: Aug 3, 2004; by FactsAreUseless

Phlegmish posted:

So far it's not close, Trump is trailing by 15%.

Kasich and Rubio bombing real hard, but I don't think anyone's surprised by that

Rubio won't be surprised but still call it a win.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:36

Mitt Romney: Nov 9, 2005; dumb and bad

Phlegmish posted:

So far it's not close, Trump is trailing by 15%.

Kasich and Rubio bombing real hard, but I don't think anyone's surprised by that

Nate Cohn says that Kasich and Cruz are taking Rubio's support from both sides.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:36

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Mitt Romney posted:

Nate Cohn says that Kasich and Cruz are taking Rubio's support from both sides.

I think the best part of this entire primary is Rubio being the one that gets eaten alive.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:37

Montasque: Jul 18, 2003; Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven

Phlegmish posted:

So far it's not close, Trump is trailing by 15%.

Kasich and Rubio bombing real hard, but I don't think anyone's surprised by that

True, but there's only 900 or so votes in. Still think Kansas is going to Cruz.

As far as Maine, honestly surprised if it goes to Cruz, but stranger things have happened this cycle and Maine is Tea-Party central and it is a caucus not a primary.

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:37

oystertoadfish: Jun 17, 2003

cruz' got almost 50% from the earliest precincts in the wichita district, wow

i could imagine those being rural and the margins dropping. the two CDs that haven't reported anything yet are the less rural eastern third

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:37

Zippy the Bummer: Dec 14, 2008; Silent Majority
The Don
LORD COMMANDER OF THE UKRAINIAN ARMED FORCES

oystertoadfish posted:

cruz' got almost 50% from the earliest precincts in the wichita district, wow

i could imagine those being rural and the margins dropping. the two CDs that haven't reported anything yet are the less rural eastern third

Yeah, it's going to tighten up when the Kansas City / eastern urban areas start reporting

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:40

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# ? May 21, 2024 15:40

The Kingfish: Oct 21, 2015

Mitt Romney posted:

Not competitive anymore and very limited info but:

- Clinton unexpectedly took a liberal legislative district in NE by 62-38.
- Sanders won two other LDs in Omaha by large margins.
- Large turnout in Topeka for Clinton

Looking like a 65-35 win for Sanders in NE probably and who knows about KS.

Where are you getting the info on NE? I'm assuming she won a district in north Omaha?

My caucus starts at 6:00

# ? Mar 5, 2016 21:40

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > KS, LA, KY, ME GOP PRIMARIES MAR. 5 3pm ET. "Super Saturday"

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