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LemonDrizzle posted:In a totally unforeseeable move, Sultan Erdogan has sprung some last-minute demands on the EU negotiators and is saying he will scupper the refugee deal if they don't comply: http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/03/07/turkeys-last-ditch-demands-threaten-migrant-deal/
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Mar 7, 2016 15:02
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Velkest posted:how dare you post this here, you racist? Shut the gently caress up.
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Mar 7, 2016 17:42
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The EU can't overthrow its member governments, and the Ukraine thing is a laughable bit of propaganda. If Ukraine is backed by Nazis, Russia is literally worse than Hitler by orders of magnitude.
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Mar 7, 2016 19:31
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The Right Sector or any other extreme right never held any significant posts at any point during the Maidan, and they lost all their regional power which they gained under the Party of Regions government!!! in the first post-Maidan elections, dear grossly misinformed poster. Actually the Right Sector has been accusing the new government of assassinating its leadership since 2014, immediately after the Maidan. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 19:39 on Mar 7, 2016 |
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Mar 7, 2016 19:36
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YF-23 posted:I will admit that I have not been following Ukraine very closely since the Maidan aftermath, and did not know about the exact conflicts between Right Sector and the Ukrainian government. That said, hindsight is 20/20, and the EU supported a government that included Right Sector at the time. Just because they were dropped from the coalition doesn't mean they were always destined to. As I said, there was no coalition, they were never invited to form a government in any capacity, they just happened to also be against Yanukovich at the same time as other parties...
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Mar 7, 2016 19:50
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You do realize Turkey already is a member of the Customs Union (which itself is a product of many underlying harmonization efforts between the EU and Turkey) - giving them visa free travel is in the large picture just an affirmation of the trend, not a radical departure. If anything the continued sabotaging of talks with the EU in the past by Greece and Cyprus was a major factor in Erdogan's rise to power. Anything that can be done to improve EU - Turkey relations will mean both a normalization of domestic Turkish politics, and a boost to economic development. If anything the way Europe has been treating Turkey is frankly a travesty caused by select few members with a historical axe to grind.
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Mar 7, 2016 22:55
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If Erdogan starts playing EU accession as a domestic card, that is a good thing, since it introduces a level of exogenous control over his government that may, in the long term, spill over beyond his control. Anyway, a billion per annum isn't all that much for a country of Turkey's size, and they are already getting as much in pre access instruments. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 23:09 on Mar 7, 2016 |
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Mar 7, 2016 23:06
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It's now his time to bypass Greece while they are down. The terms of the acquis are non-negotiable and the accession progress at the current stage is largely divorced from the current EU problems, so either he can choose to enact reforms that will allow him to open / close new chapters at a relatively rapid pace, or fail and take a domestic hit (since the EU bid remains somewhat popular, albeit in a diminished magnitude).
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Mar 7, 2016 23:16
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LemonDrizzle posted:Probably not - Remain has a consistent lead in the polls (see below), and a consistent large lead in phone polls, which are traditionally more accurate than online polls. On top of that the two Leave campaigns are spending most of their time fighting with each other and whining about the way the government is running the Remain campaign rather than putting their case. My favorite alternate timeline: Scotland votes for independence, goes through with it. Scotland is automatically granted EU accession England leaves the EU Investments, corporations and people flee from England to Scotland to avoid complications stemming from a radical change in law Scotland becomes the dominant British power England votes to join Scotland The United Kingdom of Scotland and Assorted Peripheries is established The Stuart dynasty regains its rightful throne, the Windsor traitors are summarily executed
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Mar 8, 2016 12:36
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That's not a visa.
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Mar 8, 2016 12:57
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Lagotto posted:What's the material difference? It is literally the same system Turkey has in place with the EU. You can visit Turkey on special e-Visa, but you can't go from Turkey into Schengen without proper visa. Turkey is an Annex I country, with no special privileges.
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Mar 8, 2016 13:11
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Lagotto posted:Your point being? That there is indeed a visa requirement for Schengen citizens for visiting the United States and Turkey? Cause then we can end the derail. The US would never allow visa free entry post 9-11 because of the security risks, implying that visa free entry does not increase the security risks is dumb. Are you dense? Your claim was that "No we dont, most of Europe needs an electronic visa, same as with Turkey. That is not the same as visa free at all, visa free of course implies a security risk." The point is that Turkey has effectively waived their visa requirement for EU states, so even if they call it "e-Visa" it's hardly a visa compared to the full process required if you try to cross the border in the opposite direction (if you need to qualify something by adding a prefix it signifies a major difference from the original concept). If your argument is "The US actually requires visa from EU citizens because Turkey has something similar and there is the word visa buried somewhere in their system," I wonder if you sometimes demand to be allowed entry into a foreign country by waving your Visa credit card around.
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Mar 8, 2016 14:05
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Cat Mattress posted:And? The whole point of Schengen isn't that it's visa-free, it's that it's passport-free. You can cross from Syria into Turkey, then take a bridge over the Bosphorus, and from there drive to Europe. Migrants take boats because Greece closed their land border with Turkey, not because there's no way to move on foot. Last I checked a visa waiver (placing a country into Annex II) doesn't put you into Schengen. There's still a border check, you know. When I crossed from Ukraine to Slovakia I, a Schengen citizen, was still pretty thoroughly inspected, all my luggage unpacked and each item examined individually, and I was questioned on basic questions of what I did in the country etc. That was just to curb smuggling - I can only imagine what they would do investigating a person without the freedom of movement status crossing from a potentially dangerous country. The Schengen checks can be as tough as you want them to be. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 14:22 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 14:16
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GreyjoyBastard posted:Ukraine to Slovakia? There's a very popular border crossing with regular bus service between the railroad station in Uzhorod and the rail terminal in Michalovce, Slovakia.
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Mar 8, 2016 23:35
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So, to what extent is the support for Brexit matter of "You go girl", compared to "loving Englishmen, I wish they'd go away and die in a ditch"
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Mar 12, 2016 22:52
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im afraid that if the brexit goes through i wont be able to buy cheap cheddar and proper bacon any more
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Mar 12, 2016 22:53
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If the EU bureaucrats got a dime for every time the Communities were proclaimed dead, they would have enough cash to feed all the refugees. This is not even close to being the greatest threat to the EU sustainability. If the Britons elect to get out, they will end up the same way as the Norwegians: Forced to follow EU policies due to existing ties, but with no say in formulating them. Congrats!
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Mar 13, 2016 00:28
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YF-23 posted:Unfortunately I think the zombiEU will stick around for quite a while, not realising it is really dead. Nevermind Brexit, the current refugee fuckup, where there is no single unified response but several sides claiming to abide by the established rules and plans while working on the exact opposite actions is doing the most harm. The EU is unable to effectively enforce EU policy, and "EU policy" can mean whatever the gently caress you want it to. And maybe this isn't anything new, but it's never been more important or high profile. Why are you even so hostile towards the idea of the poeple and goods of europe moving around freely.
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Mar 13, 2016 00:29
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YF-23 posted:I'm not sure where you got that from my post. Because you treat the EU as the Great Satan, when in truth its mission is to ensure free movement of goods, people and services.
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Mar 13, 2016 00:38
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Xoidanor posted:Every time a nation works around EU treaties or legislationthe institutions that make up the EU lose relevance. Empires don't fall overnight, they fade slowly into distant memory. The EU is the opposite of an empire since all members actively aspired towards membership and they all decided to maintain individual veto powers.
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Mar 13, 2016 00:45
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Xoidanor posted:Technically yes, but the intention was always that the EU would erode the nation states until it was too late to resist. There's a whole IR discipline dedicated to studying the EU, and most authors actually believe that the point of the EU has been to increase the power of nation states in Europe, not to empower any sort of supranational structure. Any sort of analysis that proclaims some sort of anti-populist leadership in the EU tends to be quite frankly fictional
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Mar 13, 2016 01:16
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YF-23 posted:There was a momentum towards greater integration and unification in the '90s and maybe the '00s which halted and which we're seeing reversed now. Reducing the EU to just "freedom of movement" is incredibly lovely and narrowminded, and if you think that that was the point all along, then if that were the case the project was doomed from the get-go to be a failure that could only last for as long as it could put up a façade that it was more than that. This goes without mentioning that freedom of movement for people is currently being challenged big-time by the member states themselves. You do realize that the Eu is the product of three pillars, the most important of which promoted common market of goods, services and persons, based on a 1980s policy agreement of all members: THe Single European Act. It's tempting to draw conspiracy theories about Europe, but the fact is that at every point the European integration program was accepted by every single nation included in it.
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Mar 13, 2016 01:34
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LemonDrizzle posted:Aside from all the times that it was voted down in referenda, renegotiated, or simply quietly ignored, you mean? You mean the single case of the constitutional treaty, which was compensated for by opt-outs and other extemptions designed specifically to aid ireland. Please do not try to critique the decision making process if you have no idea how it works.
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Mar 13, 2016 01:45
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LemonDrizzle posted:No, I mean the various occasions on which "the European integration program" has been stalled, pushed into reverse, or simply sidelined and left to rot. That includes but is not limited to Ireland voting down Nice, the French and Dutch voting down the Constitutional treaty, Sweden quietly but permanently shitcanning its "obligation" to join the eurozone (and rejecting the euro in a referendum), and the UK demanding its opt-outs. It takes a special kind of delusion to believe "the integration program" has "been accepted by every single nation" when one of the largest of those nations is currently throwing a tantrum and demanding more exceptions. So you include cases of intergovernemtal bargaining under a clear unanimity rule as violations of the unanimity rule. Nice schisophrenia, dude.
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Mar 13, 2016 02:15
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There's plenty of naturally occurring moats around the true Germany already, though?  
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Mar 15, 2016 14:40
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lol, greeks proving evvery day that they deserve to die in a ditch (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 16, 2016 22:28
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CommieGIR posted:Austerity: Letting the wealth leave the country in the pockets of the wealthy while the market collapses. Nobody's going to keep financing "reform" in a country that refuses any reforms without strict conditions. The Greeks wasted decades of a potential to build a working economy, their alternative is either to keep the debt they accrued, and receive no more loans and aid (and then go flat out into default); or cut the debt down using foreign funding while imposing austerity measures. Either way, there's no option in which the Greek economic bubble doesn't collapse, it's just a cosmetic choice. The world has no obligation to keep pouring money into the country in hopes it will undo an era of gently caress ups and corruption on somebody else's dime. The only other option I can think of would be triggering the odious debt principle, but it's absurd to compare the state of Greek corruption with the plight of African countries abused and pillaged by warlords and indebted to weapon dealers etc.
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Mar 21, 2016 22:44
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Tesseraction posted:Conversely, you're arguing that someone should cure leukaemia with leeches. Bloodletting (austerity) has its place. Greece is showing that it is not working. What IS the fundamental reform, how can it be implemented without external pressure, and how would it be affected by Greece's inability to service its debt?
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Mar 21, 2016 23:10
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Tesseraction posted:The first is partially what's ongoing - the reform of the pension system being a classic example. Second, referencing external pressure makes little sense - do you think Greece is enjoying its economy being in the shitter? That they won't try anything sane that would remove them from that? As to the third, austerity has done nothing in a positive direction to change their ability to service its debt. It is not going to service its debt under the current fiscal system. Reforming the pension system is a drop in the ocean. Yes, Greece has enjoyed their economy being in the shitter as long as others were willing to foot the bill. The economy was dead for a long time before the crisis officially broke out. External pressure means that the government doesn't reverse into the easy mode of living on ever increasing credit. The third point - well, I respectfully disagree. And even if it weren't true, the Greeks aren't worse off due to austerity than they would be trying to fulfil their obligations on their own, possibly to the contrary. As I said, there are no possibilities that would leave the Greeks better off than their were, or even at their starting level, since you can't just decide "our economy is actually producing value now, and it doesn't require any capital to operate"
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Mar 21, 2016 23:24
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Tesseraction posted:Am I meant to assume that the two of you are credulously telling me that as long as Greece says all the right magic words and signs all the correct magic talismans that somehow the austerity rainbow will push out a massive surplus that eases their debt and recovers their economy? Because I'm going to be honest I'm struggling to remember a time in history where that worked on an economy in the toilet. The austerity is the recognition that there are no magic words. It's not to make the Greeks better off, it's just to bring them down to the new normal in a controlled manner. If the Greeks don't like that, they should start lynching anybody complicit in running the country over the past 30 years.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:26
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CommieGIR posted:Not austerity. Because if you are proposing austerity, you are out of your loving mind. As I said, the point is to recognize the hole the country already is in and stop treading the air. It's a Looney Tunes cartoon scene in economic reality. Once the country falls to the bottom of the hole it ran into, it can start rising up with the help of capital starting to seek it again.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:28
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CommieGIR posted:This is an awful idea. And in reality, probably won't do anything other than increase the problem and result in unnecessary suffering. Because in reality, in their case, there is likely no bottom to be had. In the end of this insane plan of action you've proposed, would probably just be the EU cutting ties and the IMF dusting their hands of the situation. Greece needs money to do anything at all. Greece has no money. Greece needs to depress its expenses to a level where its production factors productivity outweights their costs. At that point money will start coming in. I don't see another way other than pure altruism, which is not a thing that happens, ever.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:33
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computer parts posted:The solution is to have the EU act like an actual union of states and have the federal government assume the debts of its state components. But the EU was never allowed to progress to that stage due to all those eurosceptics citing sovereignty and protection from supranational intervention. Now a country is in trouble and largely the same crowd is complaining that the EU isn't able to intervene enough.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:35
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Effectronica posted:Wait, if this is the "new normal", why are we blaming the people "complicit in running the country over the last 30 years"? You're off-message, heretic. The orthodox explanation is that it was never possible for Greeks to have pensions, healthcare, or vacation time, not that there was some period at which it was possible and then external events made it impossible. The Greeks could have had the same pensions etc. as other countries of their stage of economic development. Instead the political class used government transfers as an instrument of political corruption, and national spending became bloated while productivity bottomed out. Why should the Greeks get some sort of lifestyle subsidies while their neighbours actually have to work to earn stuff.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:38
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Effectronica posted:The UKIP, noted supporter of financial aid to Greece. UKIP is not representative of the overall eurosceptic movement, historically and internationally. There are many leftists who fear the EU integration process, as demonstrated by this very thread after all.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:39
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CommieGIR posted:At the end of the day, I agree with you completely. But you, me, and the world knows that Austerity doesn't work. At all. And it makes zero sense to inflict something that is known to not work at all on them for no other reason than there is nothing else to do. Well, I guess the difference is that I think they would be doing even worse if let to deal with investor / creditor backlash without the external impositions. As bad as austerity is, at least it's a deliberate process rather than a country going into bankrupcy kicking and screaming with no means to stop the process and just throwing away even more money along the way.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:43
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CommieGIR posted:No, austerity would just speed up the process. It's not - it rests on the assumption that public sector spending in the given country is ineffective, and therefore doesn't work like the job in your allegory. So instead the government is steered into making monetary and fiscal decisions to favour export oriented private activity, and to minimize import consumption. So the theory is more like this: "I'll give up my dream of becoming a world class sculptor in addition to my day job, and instead of spending money on more marble, I'll start paying my child support."
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Mar 21, 2016 23:50
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Tigey posted:Agree. Its completely irrelevant that it doesn't work. It is literally the only option open to Greece that is politically possible in its current context. Everything else relies on massive fiscal transfers from the rest of the Eurozone on a scale that is just not going to happen - the political narrative is utterly skewed against solidarity and more toward limiting liability now. EU was never really built on solidarity, imho, it has always been about maximizing overall utility for the majority of individual members, which usually included sponsoring some forms of development in other countries to facilitate economic exchange. Unfortunately for Greece, they are apparently so bad at this economy business that nobody really is dependent on them doing well to continue operating.
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Mar 22, 2016 00:20
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CommieGIR posted:"This won't cure your cancer, but hell, it won't NOT cure your cancer" People keep saying that, but really just as there are no cures to some cancer, I guess there are no happy endings to a national collapse. I have yet to see a recipe to Greece's problems that doesn't rely on guilting other countries into paying the Greek government to do its thing with no strings attached (which is what caused the current crisis in the first place)
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Mar 22, 2016 00:26
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CommieGIR posted:Probably as effective as austerity will be. Face it, you will die no matter what, at least the coffee enema will give you the aura that you tried to do something.
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Mar 22, 2016 00:27
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