NY DEM PRIMARY: I love a bubble tea

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > NY DEM PRIMARY: I love a bubble tea

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SavageBastard: Nov 16, 2007; Professional Lurker

I just need this poo poo to be over so I stop looking to D&D as some sort of respite of sanity.

# ? Apr 19, 2016 14:06

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# ? May 2, 2024 18:19

Pollyanna: Mar 5, 2005; Milk's on them.

SavageBastard posted:

I just need this poo poo to be over so I stop looking to D&D as some sort of respite of sanity.

realest post in this thread

# ? Apr 19, 2016 14:10

1994 Toyota Celica: Sep 11, 2008; by Nyc_Tattoo

hillary clinton is bad

# ? Apr 19, 2016 14:42

ANGRYGREEK: May 3, 2007; If you meet the Storm Spirit on the lane, gank him.

TyrantWD posted:

Expectations for today:
40% chance that Hillary wins by less than 5 points
30% chance that Hillary wins by more than 5 points
30% chance that Bernie wins

If Bernie can't win after 3 weeks of campaigning, outspending Hillary 2:1, a trip to the Vatican, and the massive grassroots efforts, he loses any credibility as a strong general election candidate. Likewise, if Hillary can't get out the vote to close the deal in NY, where her knowledge of the voters is strongest, she doesn't deserve to win the nomination (even though she probably still would win).

If Hillary wins by even 1 vote, tonight will be the moment where Bernie's campaign flatlines. The next 6 days will involve desperate attempts to revive him with the defibrillator before we call time of death on the 26th.

If Bernie practically (or should I say 'pragmatically' :iamafag:) ties NY, his campaign will not flatline, lol

# ? Apr 19, 2016 15:18

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Did someone ask for conspiracy theories / probable shenanigans? Great!

http://www.wnyc.org/story/de-blasio-demands-explanation-boe-drops-126000-brooklyn-democrats/

Yuge, if true.

# ? Apr 19, 2016 15:23

OzyMandrill: Aug 12, 2013; Look upon my words
and despair

What's so special about Brooklyn?

# ? Apr 19, 2016 15:31

bird cooch: Jan 19, 2007

Its where black people used to live?

# ? Apr 19, 2016 15:33

TyrantWD: Nov 6, 2010; Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

ANGRYGREEK posted:

If Bernie practically (or should I say 'pragmatically' :iamafag:) ties NY, his campaign will not flatline, lol

Yeah it will. We are running out of states for Bernie to catch up. A delegate tie in NY, and a tie overall next week would see Bernie needing to win 60-40 in the remainder of the states including California and we still have some closed states coming up in May.

# ? Apr 19, 2016 15:38

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

TyrantWD posted:

Yeah it will. We are running out of states for Bernie to catch up. A delegate tie in NY, and a tie overall next week would see Bernie needing to win 60-40 in the remainder of the states including California and we still have some closed states coming up in May.

It'll be interesting if Sanders keeps her from reaching the nomination via pledged delegates, though--which he can easily do as long as he avoids losing by more than 10% for the remainder of the elections (including tonight). At that point it comes down to superdelegates to put her over and that will undoubtedly make some people salty.

# ? Apr 19, 2016 15:49

Homeless Friend: Jul 16, 2007

Die Bern, Die

# ? Apr 19, 2016 15:50

TyrantWD: Nov 6, 2010; Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

OAquinas posted:

It'll be interesting if Sanders keeps her from reaching the nomination via pledged delegates, though--which he can easily do as long as he avoids losing by more than 10% for the remainder of the elections (including tonight). At that point it comes down to superdelegates to put her over and that will undoubtedly make some people salty.

Super delegates will have to put someone over the top. It's extremely unlikely that either candidate can hit the 2,300+ figure on pledged delegates alone unless someone drops out and they essentially run unopposed.

# ? Apr 19, 2016 15:54

El Pollo Blanco: Jun 12, 2013; by sebmojo

OzyMandrill posted:

What's so special about Brooklyn?

Is that Norman Finklestein?

# ? Apr 19, 2016 15:59

mike12345: Jul 14, 2008; "Whether the Earth was created in 7 days, or 7 actual eras, I'm not sure we'll ever be able to answer that. It's one of the great mysteries."

El Pollo Blanco posted:

Is that Norman Finklestein?

Looks like it. OTOH, old dude with white hair and glasses.

# ? Apr 19, 2016 16:02

Tetracube: Feb 12, 2014; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Epic High Five posted:

im a independent who refuses to associate with your party

wait why aren't you letting me vote for your candidate

I dun like closed primaries myself but I very distinctly remember the Sanders campaign carpet bombing NYC reminding people of the registration deadline. It's no surprise all the cases of fraud that are being investigated are coming up as ID10T errors

not gonna lie conspiracy theories will bankroll him all the way through California. He's only ~~200300~~375 delegates down out of 1200 remaining, keep donating!

it's kind of a raw deal for the young people who genuinely are busting their balls, but you have to figure out why nobody panders to the youth vote eventually I guess

Of course I thought Jeb! would go all the way in the GOP so maybe Bernie wins it

More like
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiACFlHZ1IA

lol at you having a meltdown before the results are even in

# ? Apr 19, 2016 16:07

Bernice Anders: Feb 26, 2016; by zen death robot

TyrantWD posted:

Super delegates will have to put someone over the top. It's extremely unlikely that either candidate can hit the 2,300+ figure on pledged delegates alone unless someone drops out and they essentially run unopposed.

Hillary will hit it easily.

# ? Apr 19, 2016 16:12

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Bernice Anders posted:

Hillary will hit it easily.

If she wins every single race with 55% of the vote from today on, she will be short by about 188 delegates. She has that in SDs, of course, but she'll fall short in pledged.

If Bernie pulls a win or a tie in any of the big ones, she'll be all but guaranteed to miss the target via pledged dels.

# ? Apr 19, 2016 16:18

Shark Sandwich: Sep 6, 2010; by R. Guyovich

OAquinas posted:

Did someone ask for conspiracy theories / probable shenanigans? Great!

http://www.wnyc.org/story/de-blasio-demands-explanation-boe-drops-126000-brooklyn-democrats/

Yuge, if true.

Sounds like a case of natives being forced out and the yuppies invading not bothering to register

# ? Apr 19, 2016 16:21

Cao Ni Ma: May 25, 2010

Bernice Anders posted:

Hillary will hit it easily.

Its about as likely as it is for Sanders to get the pledge majority. Which is to say, almost impossible right now.

# ? Apr 19, 2016 16:21

Tainen: Jan 23, 2004

Bernice Anders posted:

Hillary will hit it easily.

She's not going to get the needed pledged delegates but she will get more than Obama got in 2008.

# ? Apr 19, 2016 16:23

MC Nietzche: Oct 26, 2004; by exmarx

I feel bad for the poll workers who are going to have to deal with rabid registered independent bernouts yelling at them about court cases and calling them names for not letting them illegally vote.

# ? Apr 19, 2016 16:29

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Tainen posted:

She's not going to get the needed pledged delegates but she will get more than Obama got in 2008.

well, there are more delegates than there were in 2008.

But as a percentage, barring people Berning it all down she's going to do better than Obama (who won 86% of the nomination amount via pledged delegates). I'm spitballing around her winning 92% via pledged delegates right now. Plus or minus 3% depending on how much she wins out. If she starts crushing Bernie with 70% of the vote everywhere then she goes over the top without SDs.

# ? Apr 19, 2016 16:39

Salt Fish: Sep 11, 2003; Cybernetic Crumb

MC Nietzche posted:

I feel bad for the poll workers who are going to have to deal with rabid registered independent bernouts yelling at them about court cases and calling them names for not letting them illegally vote.

Cool cognitive dissonance.

# ? Apr 19, 2016 16:42

Deki: May 12, 2008; It's Hammer Time!

My prediction is that Bernie is going to lose by less than the polling indicates, and his campaign will wind down on the attacks against Hillary and fundraising, but still be in until the convention.

# ? Apr 19, 2016 16:43

Bernice Anders: Feb 26, 2016; by zen death robot

Deki posted:

My prediction is that Bernie is going to lose by less than the polling indicates, and his campaign will wind down on the attacks against Hillary and fundraising, but still be in until the convention.

My prediction is that Bernie will lose by a huge margin and go even more negative because that will get him the most attention and donor dollars.

# ? Apr 19, 2016 16:45

Salt Fish: Sep 11, 2003; Cybernetic Crumb

Bernice Anders posted:

My prediction is that Bernie will lose by a huge margin and go even more negative because that will get him the most attention and donor dollars.

Have you ever made a good faith post?

# ? Apr 19, 2016 16:49

Concerned Citizen: Jul 22, 2007; Ramrod XTreme

i think bernie will lose by more than polling indicates as happened in florida, but we'll see i guess.

# ? Apr 19, 2016 16:50

Bernice Anders: Feb 26, 2016; by zen death robot

Salt Fish posted:

Have you ever made a good faith post?

I deal in reality, not faith. It's why I'm not a Bernie voter.

# ? Apr 19, 2016 16:50

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

My prediction is that Sanders loses by less than 5 points

# ? Apr 19, 2016 16:52

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Just voted 3rd party in the special election, really hoping it doesn't end up splitting the liberal vote and making the Republicans win.

OAquinas posted:

Did someone ask for conspiracy theories / probable shenanigans? Great!

http://www.wnyc.org/story/de-blasio-demands-explanation-boe-drops-126000-brooklyn-democrats/

Yuge, if true.

I looked at this a bit last night, it's a higher drop than usual, but voter rolls in Brooklyn fluctuate quite a bit every year, more so than most other counties.

# ? Apr 19, 2016 16:58

TyrantWD: Nov 6, 2010; Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

https://twitter.com/JordanChariton/status/722452495734321152

That's going to end well...

# ? Apr 19, 2016 16:59

fade5: May 31, 2012; by exmarx

TyrantWD posted:

Expectations for today:
40% chance that Hillary wins by less than 5 points
30% chance that Hillary wins by more than 5 points
30% chance that Bernie wins

If Bernie can't win after 3 weeks of campaigning, outspending Hillary 2:1, a trip to the Vatican, and the massive grassroots efforts, he loses any credibility as a strong general election candidate. Likewise, if Hillary can't get out the vote to close the deal in NY, where her knowledge of the voters is strongest, she doesn't deserve to win the nomination (even though she probably still would win).

If Hillary wins by even 1 vote, tonight will be the moment where Bernie's campaign flatlines. The next 6 days will involve desperate attempts to revive him with the defibrillator before we call time of death on the 26th.

I disagree with the percentages, but I agree with everything else.

So is this gonna be a "Bernie leads when almost none of the vote is in, Hillary surges late" type of state, or is New York different?

# ? Apr 19, 2016 17:12