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- Why you should draft Ezekiel Elliott at 1.01
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Jun 2, 2016 20:43
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MrSargent posted:-Generally don't want to do a straight up trade at the same position (RB for RB, WR for WR) Unless you're getting the better player...
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Jun 2, 2016 21:38
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Dandy Kaiser posted:If you're in a return yards league, Jarvis Landry is a legit low-end WR1, dude was so money last year Forget Landry (670 yards, lol please), Lockett went for 1200 and Abdullah 1100. In 1pt/25 yards, that's an extra 480 and 440 yards, giving Lockett equivalent of 1150 and Abdullah equivalent of 1200 total yards from scrimmage. Especially if no PPR, those return yards really boosted those two in the rankings.
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Jun 4, 2016 00:49
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Dandy Kaiser posted:Yeah except Landry is already a WR2 that's mostly underdrafted and those 700 return yards push him into top-10 territory while his ADP still sitting at mid-range WR2 Landry is already a WR2, but Lockett and Abdullah go from, what, borderline flex plays, to strong RB2 and WR2? Not saying to draft them over Landry obviously, but their value is much more affected by return yards, so they're much more gods of return leagues than dumb "I improve from WR#16 to WR#13 or whatever with return yards" Landry. sourdough fucked around with this message at 02:56 on Jun 4, 2016 |
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Jun 4, 2016 02:52
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Dandy Kaiser posted:Landry goes from 16 to like 8 and Lockett and Abdullah will still go late enough that you can target them and reasonably get them regardless of where you're drafting. Whereas, you may only get one shot at Landry because of your draft slot and if you're in a return yards league (especially PPR), you should totally "reach" on him because he's the BPA. Maybe I'll draft a redeem team somewhere. At RB, go for Lacy, CJA, Hyde, Melvin Gordon, maybe Abdullah after he definitely didn't fulfill his rookie hype train, Foster as a late round flier. For WR, Jordy, Cobb, Kelvin Benjamin, White, Perriman, SSS, Josh Gordon obviously. I feel like most of the WRs that disappointed were injury rather than performance, except Cobb and probably a few other guys I'm forgetting. I want a good team this year, so guys like Andre Johnson don't count. TE will be Graham and... Bennett?! Just kidding, won't draft a TE. Edit: Couldn't get all these guys at their ADP, but these would be some of the guys I'd target. sourdough fucked around with this message at 12:09 on Jun 4, 2016 |
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Jun 4, 2016 12:06
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Tiptoes posted:Why do people believe that the Jaguars passing offense won't regress this year? I have trouble buying that Hurns, or even Robinson, will repeat last year's numbers. The Jaguars were 9th as a team in red zone opportunities per game, but 19th overall in terms of yards/drive and red zone scoring efficiency. Looks prime for regression, especially touchdowns, to me. Yeah, Hurns will certainly regress, but if he's being priced as a WR3 and not a high end WR2, that's already taking it into account. I'm happy with him as my WR3 personally, but no way I take him over Cobb or probably Matthews.
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Jun 7, 2016 11:53
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Metapod posted:Because bort should get better Sorry for mobile links, but https://m.numberfire.com/nfl/news/7709/why-blake-bortles-is-bound-to-throw-fewer-touchdowns-in-2016 https://m.numberfire.com/nfl/news/7880/5-big-play-quarterbacks-who-could-regress-in-2016 https://m.numberfire.com/nfl/news/7917/5-big-play-nfl-pass-catchers-who-could-regress-in-2016 https://m.numberfire.com/nfl/news/7660/which-wide-receivers-will-score-fewer-touchdowns-in-2016 Etc etc. You can quibble with any specific thing they look at or how valuable you think something like NEP is, but all signs point to the Jags passing game being less valuable in fantasy next year.
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Jun 7, 2016 16:35
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Forever_Peace posted:Other folks to look at in ppr that seem low: Danny Woodhead (5th/6th), Breshad Perriman (11th/12th), Matt Ryan (11th-13th), Kendall Wright (13th). You can't draft a Brady that will miss a quarter of the season in the sixth round, come on now. Also, without looking at ADP so I could be totally wrong, I'd be super surprised if you could get Moncrief that late.
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Jun 7, 2016 16:41
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MacheteZombie posted:Is the moncrief hyped just based around the idea that the colts will be healthier this season? Some o line improvements hoping to keep luck on his feet? That, plus also Andre Johnson and Fleener are gone so there's a lot of targets up for grabs, plus Moncrief looked good in the few games with Luck last year. He's a totally legit breakout candidate as far as I can tell, just a matter of being sure to draft him closer to his expectation than his ceiling.
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Jun 7, 2016 21:10
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Metapod posted:I'm just saying bort should make a leap this year so the production could be sustainable There's a funny way in which Bort or the team overall improving will work to drop their fantasy scoring. There was a Reddit post about something like 20% of Bortles' yardage and 25% of his touchdowns, for the whole season, were in the (1) last 5 minutes of games, (2) in which the Jags were down 9+ points. Better Bort or better defense or better offense means less garbage time. Then there's the second point of the Jags running basically all their red zone looks as passes, which should change at least a bit with the addition of Ivory. It's just, even if you like the Jags and Bortles and think they're going to get better in real life, which I agree with, it will be tough for the passing component of the offense to be so prolific in fantasy. It required the Jags being down a lot, having a higher than average amount of long completions, and almost exclusively passing in the red zone.
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Jun 7, 2016 21:15
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For any IDP people, Hau'oli Kikaha, 2nd round LB pick of the Saints last year that looked like he'd transition to DL this year and therefore probably be a nice pick up, tore his ACL.
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Jun 9, 2016 19:52
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Benne posted:https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/741731732311953408 Fuuuuuuccckkkkkkk. Just traded for him 
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Jun 11, 2016 22:47
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Perriman I guess we'll never know if you're actually good or not
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I haven't seen anyone say that. Mostly it seems to be people thinking Chris Moore is the guy to own (they're dumb) or that now Aiken is at minimum the WR2 on the team and best case the WR1 if Steve Smith is old and bad now (smart guys, like me).
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Jun 12, 2016 00:49
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Spoeank posted:fantasy football twitter is getting all flustered over Steve Smith's 2015 numbers like he got a hang nail Ah yeah, I'm mostly just dynasty, so Steve Smith is almost literally worthless.
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Jun 12, 2016 01:01
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Dandy Kaiser posted:Times when it's okay to have a Ravens skill position player: Or Kamar Aiken in 2015 when he was like, what, a WR2 for 2/3 the year, or Forsett in 2014 when he was a top 10 RB, or Ray Rice for four years, or a million other guys, you absolute fucker!!
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Jun 12, 2016 01:05
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Spoeank posted:Torrey Smith gonna get hella targets and has a 14th round ADP You misspelled Deandre Smelter and uhh Quinton Patton (or was I thinking of Bruce Ellington?). Alright yeah, Torrey probably will do something this year. Is Gabbert really going to start over Kaep, though? Isn't he, like, awful?
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Jun 12, 2016 01:19
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Spoeank posted:49ers takes: Sweet, good info. And yeah, I want to have some piece of a Chip Kelly team, but beyond Hyde (probably), I have no idea what piece. I felt like Kaep probably would win out if he gets healthy, and Torrey Smith might be kinda boom/bust but get a good number of targets.
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Jun 12, 2016 01:40
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Dion Lewis to get benched in week 2 for "smiling kind of funny" at BB, James White to go for 1500 total yards, 8 touchdowns, and 65 catches from week 3 on 
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Jun 14, 2016 11:36
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Perriman didn't end up needing anything major done to his knee, just got scoped and stem cells injected. Recovery 2-4 weeks. Hell yeah.
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Jun 14, 2016 16:57
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Don't care don't care. It's the difference between him being next to worthless in dynasty and me being able to dump him off to someone who likes fast receivers that can't catch the ball for like a mid first!
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Jun 14, 2016 17:09
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Sataere posted:You play with terrible players if you get a mid 1st for him. Or, ya know, a bunch of experts that have Perriman between Doctson and Shepard, so somewhere around 1.04 or 1.05. I don't have to agree with it, but consensus is absolutely that he's worth a mid 1st.
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Jun 15, 2016 01:17
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Spoeank posted:Only one of those rankers have updated their ranks in the last week, so the news that Perriman may just have lovely knees isn't accounted for. Oh yeah, I know. But that's how people viewed him assuming he'd be healthy this year, so assuming he does recover fine (not the safest assumption haha), seems like that's about where he'll be. Then when he gets 300-400 of Flacco's targets and can bust out a 100 catch red shirt rookie year, I'll sell him for all the 1st rounders.
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Jun 15, 2016 01:26
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jabro posted:lol is that the reasoning you're going to use to try to sucker into that dumbass trade? I'm not going to sucker anyone. I'm going to put him on the block some time and see what comes my way. Somewhat related, do you guys actually like try to really sell people in trade negotiations? I tend to just say "I want this guy, let me know what you like on my team," then go from there. If they make a sort of reasonable offer that doesn't work for some reason, I'll say like "I'm more interested in position X, not the guy you're offering in position Y," but I'm never going to argue about the other owner having wacky opinions. Spoeank posted:He's gonna need 400 targets to catch 100 footballs Hahah yes, that was what I was going for
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Jun 15, 2016 01:35
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Tiptoes posted:ODB is going to be one of the best of all time and y'all fuckers better respect. AB is having his 15 minutes of fame at the moment but this is ODB's game from now on. You tipped your hand a little too much here, fly away troll Facts: Mikey Purp posted:AB84 > Julio Jones >> OBJ sourdough fucked around with this message at 20:27 on Jun 15, 2016 |
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Jun 15, 2016 20:22
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Same with OBJ being similar non-prototypical-WR1 size as Brown, and also being similarly at risk for regression from the viewpoint of being historically good the past two years, and also being the clear focal point for the offense if another team wants to target him. Not much to argue for OBJ over Brown in that paragraph. Beckham's probably more of a risk for suspension due to getting wound up on the field and doing something stupid, too! sourdough fucked around with this message at 22:45 on Jun 15, 2016 |
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Jun 15, 2016 22:41
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Forever_Peace posted:I argued vociferously that OBJ wasn't a good first round pick last year. I know you know it, but don't be results oriented. He was a very risky first round pick.
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Jun 15, 2016 23:48
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Tyler Kroft could be a TE2 if Eifert misses time, and long term might be the best there in terms of upside. Probably not useful for a couple years at least, though, until he or Eifert leave Cincinnati. Virgil Green is a longshot for sure, but not much competition so might actually get the job.
sourdough fucked around with this message at 03:11 on Jun 16, 2016 |
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Jun 16, 2016 03:09
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Sataere posted:He was only a risky first round pick if you are afraid of drafting good players. I really don't get how it is controversial to say he was a risky first round pick. Are you drafting Devante Parker as a 1200 yard, 8 TD, low end WR1/high end WR2? That's what he did for his 6 healthy games to close out last year. How about Rawls as the clear RB#1? On pace for ~1900 rushing yards and 13 TDs as a starter. If the answer is no, how do you not understand that a 12 game sample size is also very small? Yeah blah blah differences between Parker and Rawls and Beckham, shut up, haha. Those are reasons OBJ was less risky than drafting these two at their ceilings, not reasons that Beckham wasn't at all risky. Notice I never said OBJ was bad or didn't have first round upside, just that he was a big fuckin risk! Sataere posted:I find it interesting that a lot of you seem to believe both that ODB is a tremendous talent and that a second year player has maxed his potential. How often do top tier players really max out in year 2? Did anyone actually say that? I didn't and don't believe it. Sataere posted:My biggest issue with AB84 is quite simple. How many times in the history of fantasy football has a player been the number one player for three years in a row? I am pretty sure the answer is never. How many times has a receiver had the two year start that OBJ has? Never? Guess it couldn't have happened then 
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Jun 17, 2016 14:17
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Spoeank posted:Same except Kendricks over Thompson Agreed on Thompson, but I'd drop probably both Kendricks and Wright before NYJ def, I think. I'd hold Spiller over those two as well, but no big loss if you cut him.
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Jun 17, 2016 16:33
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Metapod posted:Is there something I'm missing about Thompson? Pass catching back on the Redskins, when we don't know if Matt Jones is any good and the only other competition is a 7th round rookie. He's not super valuable or anything, there's just even less valuable guys to cut first.
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Jun 17, 2016 16:46
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Dandy Kaiser posted:Unless it's a 2 QB or superflex league (e: or you're in some crazy 16+ team league), I don't see the point in keeping Smith when you have Rodgers, that's an easy drop for me that I'd make before even thinking about who the other 4 should be. If you're going to carry a backup, you should be trying to get younger anyway. He's only 32, is a fine mid/low QB2, a backup QB is required at least one week a year, and most importantly isn't Jarius Wright or Cecil Shorts. Even in an 8 team, 1 QB league, ~QB20 is more valuable than ~WR80 or 100 or wherever you'd out Shorts and Wright.
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Jun 17, 2016 17:02
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Sataere posted:It is the offseason and I am bored. I am willing to die defending this hill. I know you guys know statistics better than me, but I also know that I am right. Yeah, I'm down with that. And this is really kinda splitting hairs. I was not comfortable with OBJ as a 1st round pick last year, but he's definitely top 3 receiver for me now. I think the main thing in the Brown top receiver for three years thing is that that alone doesn't suggest OBJ will be better than him. Being the top X guy three years in a row will be tough because production fluctuates and new guys pop up with career years. Julio could go off for 1800-16 next year, and Brown could actually improve from last year and not be WR1. But if you think Brown has the highest probability of scoring the most fantasy points, you take him first this season. What rank he was the last two years doesn't matter. Of course another WR could outscore him this year, but that same hypothetical career year Julio would outscore every other receiver too. It's like, maybe Brown only has a 25% chance of being WR#1 this year, but then Julio might only have a 20% chance and Beckham an 18% chance, etc etc. Dandy Kaiser posted:If there's 12 teams or less, it's nearly impossible to not replace his value without having to burn a keeper spot; if there's 14, it's a littler harder but definitely not impossible. Bonus points if you can get someone on the right side of 30 who can throw a football more than 12 yards. Totally agreed that there are likely better FAs available than Smith. But there are also less valuable guys already on the roster that can be cut. And I didn't say a QB2 is unilaterally valuable, I said it is more valuable than a WR#100.
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Jun 17, 2016 18:18
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) as a lottery ticket should easily have some more value at this present moment in time than an easily replaceable back-up QB that you will need for less than 7% of the season.
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Dandy Kaiser posted:I guess I'm just of the opinion that if I have a top-end QB1, I would rather have a 1-in-1,000,000 lottery ticket in the pre-season than almost any back-up QB. Holding Smith over Jarius Wright means the guy that has Luck or Flacco or Romo or Ben or whoever, had to rely on someone like Weeden or Cutler or Schaub or Kaep or some other schlub, even if just for a bye week of their backup QB or something. That's worth more than Jarius Wright or Cecil Shorts. And best case, some dude had Luck and Romo and was hosed over for half the year. As for having more valuable keepers, I mean, it depends how the league is set up. If you declare keepers, then non-keepers are released, then free agency opens, there is, as far as I can tell, literally no reason to not keep a more valuable Smith than a less valuable Jarius Wright. If there's some benefit to be gained in not keeping the maximum allowed, then sure, might not be worth it to keep Smith. E: Anyway, this is all being a bit unfair to Smith. Wasn't he QB#11 or something last year? I don't know that he maintains that, but he's at least got a higher ceiling than mid/low QB2. sourdough fucked around with this message at 18:34 on Jun 17, 2016 |
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Jun 17, 2016 18:30
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Dandy Kaiser posted:Fantasy Football 2016: Game Theory is the path to destruction If you're suggesting I'm advocating hoarding lovely QBs to deny your opponents, don't argue against a position I'm not taking  Edit: Dandy Kaiser posted:Alex Smith is Not A Good Fantasy Quarterback Goddammit how'd I know Dandy Kaiser posted:e2: QB16 in Yahoo, 2 points behind Tyrod and 2 ahead of Tannehill, QB27 in PPG Excellent, now argue why Jarius Wright or Cecil Shorts are worth more than this. sourdough fucked around with this message at 18:40 on Jun 17, 2016 |
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Jun 17, 2016 18:37
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Dandy Kaiser posted:Maybe I'm confused because that's what it sounds like? It's also not taking into account that on Rodgers' bye you're going to end up having to start Alex loving Smith who you probably could've improved upon in the draft and is now your best option because any better players than him that were out there were probably ignored because you didn't want to be the moron carrying 3 QBs Dandy: I don't care who else is an option to cut. My first choice would be Alex Smith, because I hate backup QBs almost as much as I hate tight ends. RVP: Op has a few other such lovely guys that he can cut that he'd be silly to give up the tiny amount of value Alex Smith has in order to hold guys that are literally worthless. Literally Jarius Wright, man. Dandy: I can't believe you think op should roster Alex Smith over every other FA that is available.
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Jun 17, 2016 18:44
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Dandy Kaiser posted:e: For the record, I would cut Smith, Hester, Shorts, Wright, and Kendricks of those players listed well before I'd cut Spiller, Thompson, or NYJ DEF You absolute fucker  Dandy Kaiser posted:Unless it's a 2 QB or superflex league (e: or you're in some crazy 16+ team league), I don't see the point in keeping Smith when you have Rodgers, that's an easy drop for me that I'd make before even thinking about who the other 4 should be. If you're going to carry a backup, you should be trying to get younger anyway.
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Jun 17, 2016 18:46
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Dandy Kaiser posted:All I'm saying is that Dandy Kaiser posted:Unless it's a 2 QB or superflex league (e: or you're in some crazy 16+ team league), I don't see the point in keeping Smith when you have Rodgers, that's an easy drop for me that I'd make before even thinking about who the other 4 should be. If you're going to carry a backup, you should be trying to get younger anyway. Dandy Kaiser posted:e: For the record, I would cut Smith, Hester, Shorts, Wright, and Kendricks of those players listed well before I'd cut Spiller, Thompson, or NYJ DEF And for the record!! RVProfootballer posted:Agreed on [keeping] Thompson, but I'd drop probably both Kendricks and Wright before NYJ def, I think. I'd hold Spiller over those two as well, but no big loss if you cut him. God that was a dumb as hell argument, started by your dumb comment that I guess you didn't even mean because we were already in agreement, hahah
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Jun 17, 2016 18:56
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Dandy Kaiser posted:I did mean it and I still mean it and If I had Newton/Rodgers/Wilson/Luck, I wouldn't even consider having two QBs on my roster except for streaming a bye replacement, unless I was in a dynasty format and my backup was someone like Winston/Mariota/Bridgewater/Lynch/someone young who has a chance of being something besides (which I want to emphasize is independent of this point and only matters because he's the specific player in question) "I Made Every Travis Kelce Owner Predictably Sad" Alex Smith. A back-up QB over, even the most unlikely of lottery tickets, when you have one of those 4 guys, is foolish at best imo It is a dynasty league, op can almost certainly not stream for poo poo because it's 21 man rosters and (very likely) 10 or more teams, and op has no other QBs besides Rodgers and Smith.
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Jun 17, 2016 19:18
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Dandy Kaiser posted:I'm in a 12-team, 25-man roster keeper league and Cousins, Stafford, Cutler, Taylor, Fitzpatrick, Flacco, and Smith, among other temporarily serviceable starters like Hmm, maybe I'm off base then. I'm in almost all IDP dynasty leagues with bigger rosters, but looking at a couple of them now, the best QBs are: (1) Keenum, Hoyer, Geno Smith, Foles, etc; (2) all the guys in (1) plus Bradford and Garoppolo (brb, putting in a claim on him); (3) Sanchez, Gabbert, and all the guys in (2); and finally (4), all the guys in (1). Other leagues I'm in are superflex so obviously not relevant.
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Jun 17, 2016 19:32
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| # ¿ May 13, 2024 06:40 |
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Sataere posted:The point I am making is that I believe with absolute certainty that AB84 is going to see a drop in production. I have not done the math on the average percentage that drop is, but it is a concern. I think there is almost no way he equals or improves and I think to hold that expectation is folly. I guess I don't understand what reasons you have for being so certain Brown will regress. Here's an excellent reason why he could do better: he played a full quarter of last year with Landry Jones and Michael Vick, and still put up his best year ever (tied #2 all time for single season receptions and #4 for receiving yards). If he has Ben for those 4 games, he breaks the receiving yards and receptions records. I just don't see any evidence to suggest he's on the decline, ya know?
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Jun 17, 2016 19:39
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