Fantasy Football 2016: There is no god. Existence is a joke

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2016: There is no god. Existence is a joke

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Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Updated BeerSheet for PPR and MFL10.

Lots of sources have updated now. Sheets are looking good, and I'm super happy with the ADP projector.

# ¿ Jun 11, 2016 21:24

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# ¿ May 22, 2024 15:38

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Drunk Nerds posted:

I got one:

Ray Rice year, I created and ran a charity drive where people would pledge money every time the Ravens scored a TD without Ray Rice on the field. This was before they kicked him off the team, so I ended up raising a few thou for a Baltimore women's shelter. During that pre-season, I traded for Ray Rice, and a person in that league called my move "unconscionable" because I had spearheaded the drive.

According to him, because I raised money for charity, I was being unethical.

Adrian Peterson also got that treatment.

# ¿ Jun 13, 2016 12:09

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Metapod posted:

Tennessee should not be taken seriously until Mike Mularkey is fired.

# ¿ Jun 17, 2016 01:09

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Anderron Shi posted:

I need to cut the following team down from 21 players to 16 before the draft:

Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB
Smith, Alex KCC QB
Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB
Coleman, Tevin ATL RB
Gore, Frank IND RB
Riddick, Theo DET RB
Spiller, C.J. NOS RB
Starks, James GBP RB
Thompson, Chris WAS RB
Beckham, Odell NYG WR
Bryant, Martavis PIT WR
Evans, Mike TBB WR
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
Ginn Jr., Ted CAR WR
Hester, Devin ATL WR
Shorts, Cecil HOU WR
Smith, Torrey SFO WR
Wheaton, Markus PIT WR
Wright, Jarius MIN WR
Kendricks, Lance RAM TE
Jets, New York NYJ Def

0.5 ppr dynasty league, no kickers

Which 5 should I drop?

Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB
Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB
Beckham, Odell NYG WR
Evans, Mike TBB WR
Bryant, Martavis PIT WR

# ¿ Jun 17, 2016 22:43

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

3 DONG HORSE posted:

Hi guys. It's time to start stressing out over fake sports

Most people wait until after the 4th to do that.

# ¿ Jun 18, 2016 22:49

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Hey guys, I'm loving around with the format for BeerSheets and I wanted your input. Specifically I'm trying to reduce the level of cognitive effort needed to make a decision, particularly around ADP. Previously I had players juggle ADP, value, skew, and positional scarcity. The end result was a bit more information than I'd like, with more specificity than necessary in some spots and not enough information in others. So I decided to tweak some things and I would like your input:

The biggest change is the removal of the skew column and the replacement of the ADP column with a ranking. Instead of showing the ADP from FFC (which frankly isn't that good at this point), it shows the FantasyPros ranking of a player in the Round.Pick format that makes it easier to judge when a player "should" be taken. I then add some formatting tricks so that a player can glean actual ADP data (also from FantasyPros) from this ranking. It turns out that for most players their ranking is within a round of their ADP. For players who were being taken a round or more before their ranking suggested they should I struck out the text. It's still readable but clearly indicates something. For players who were potential steals (meaning their ADP is at least a round past their ranking) I underlined the value. For players who were even better potential steals (ADP two or more rounds past ranking) I used a double underline.

I think it does a good job of providing a general sense of where a player would nominally go while also providing using information about players within a tier. Is this too confusing? Have I done the opposite of what I intended?

# ¿ Jun 19, 2016 00:03

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Leperflesh posted:

It seems the Positional Scarcity and the Value charts are now the same thing. E.g., every player at Value of 0.499... and down is always PS of 0. What throws me is where they don't quite match: for example, Ryan Mathews is 2.0 value and 17% PS remaining behind him, but Kelvin Benjamin is 2.0 value with only 9% PS remaining behind him. Is that just a function of the number of players, e.g. by setting the baseline at 45 for WRs but 35 for RBs, you're compressing the PS for RBs compared to WRs?

Actually, I also think the PS number would be more helpful if it gave that player's specific percentage value, rather than how much is remaining behind them. That took me ages to understand.

So for example, LeVeon Bell has a PS of 8%. Gurley has 6%, David Johnson has... 8%? AP has 5%? (Shouldn't David Johnson be above Gurley, if he consumes a larger chunk of positional scarcity?)

Maybe you could explain why you picked a specific baseline. It has to be confusing to a first-time user to see that there's only nine quarterbacks with positional scarcity above zero. It implies that there's no reason to take anyone after that point. It's also odd that the baseline for QB is 12, but numbers 11 and 12 have negative value.

All that said, I think the sheets are already very useable, once you wrap your brain around what these numbers mean - not just how they're calculated, but what they mean in terms of making choices about drafting.

Value and PS haven't changed. Value is based on the "player-games" method described here. Because this is a 3WR league that's half PPR you'll need a lot more WRs (45) than RBs (35). PS is the percentage of positive value remaining once a player is drafted. It useful to show how depleted a given skill position is. The difference between Mathews and Benjamin is a perfect example. If you're near the end of the 5th and you have to choose between the two, you'll see both have the same projected value. But Benjamin's PS value is lower, meaning there are fewer valuable WRs after him, so in a vacuum you would likely want to draft him over Matthews. The rankings also emphasize that; Benjamin is ranked ahead of Ryan Matthews by a full round. If instead I showed just their specific percentages you wouldn't get that information. Instead you would see that Ryan Matthews has 1.86% of the RB value and Benjamin has 1.54% of the WR value.

Both Gurley and Johnson have around 6.6% of the total value. It doesn't show up due to rounding. The reason only 9 QBs have a positive positional scarcity is because I calculate values for each projection individually so you're not going to get a perfect distribution. More importantly it shows that past the tier that ends at Rivers there is a huge swath of QBs who could have starter-quality production and you see a bunch of guys lumped together.

# ¿ Jun 19, 2016 00:50

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

89 posted:

I've got to pick my position in a 10 man draft (last year's winner has their choice).

But, this year the first round seems so clusterfucked, I'm thinking maybe picking #3 for the safe option of landing either Antonio Brown, LeVeon, or Adrian Peterson is the way to go? The number 1 and 2 picks go to the person that finished last and the winner of the consolation playoffs.

I don't trust almost all of the first round RBs this year.

I think I'd get that #3 pick if I had to decide immediately. In addition to getting one of the theoretically stud, theoretically no brainer wideouts there's a chance you can get some ridiculous value in the 2nd and 3rd grabbing running backs who have fallen. In the first Slow Draft I had the number one overall pick and scored Antonio Brown, Jamaal Charles, and Doug Martin. And then got LeSean McCoy in the 4th.

Also I'm running another slow draft. If you want in PM me your e-mail address. First 11 (plus myself) get in.

# ¿ Jun 21, 2016 20:53

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

MacheteZombie posted:

If your league ~~doesn't set a minimum price~~ isn't run by morons that should be the case.

# ¿ Jun 21, 2016 22:50

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Slow Draft II is up: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3780878&pagenumber=1&perpage=40#post461340380

PM me with your e-mail address if you want in.

# ¿ Jun 23, 2016 02:41

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Discord is a thing that is fun. If you guys want to hang out there I made a channel: https://discord.gg/pYXTC

Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 01:39 on Jun 28, 2016

# ¿ Jun 28, 2016 01:04

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Lincoln posted:

I think I just figured something out:

QBs have always gone early in our league. Last year, two went in the 1st round, one in the 2nd and one in the 3rd. I've assumed til now that it's a holdover from the earlier days of the league, when QBs scored 6/TD and 1/20 yds passing. But a couple of seasons ago we backed off QB scoring to a much more reasonable 5/25. A bit higher than average, but not enough to justify how our QBs are still being drafted.

Here's the thing: we charge $10 for free agents and trades. So streaming QB-of-the-Week (or K or DST) is out of the question. I can't believe I'm just now figuring this out -- but for all I know, I'm wrong & we simply have a bunch of morons in our league. Am I right? Is that a justifiable reason to draft elite QBs early?

$10 per transaction is dumb. I'd much rather participate in a FAAB league where the money was real and you get whatever you didn't spend back at the end of the season. At least then you have a motivation to balance your spending. But $10 per transaction? Dumb.

That said I wouldn't use that as motivation to reach for a QB. It naturally penalizes streamers (hence why it is dumb), but I'd much rather aim for two high upside QBs that I could pick in the later rounds and balance them. Players like Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, and Tony Romo would be folks I would target.

# ¿ Jun 29, 2016 21:10

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

BeerSheets are up!

# ¿ Jul 17, 2016 01:06

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/4tcogu/beersheets_20160717_i_screwed_something_up_edition/

Whoops. Previous edition had 0.25 points per carry.

# ¿ Jul 18, 2016 02:38

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Veritek83 posted:

Are you playing in the Scott Fish Bowl?

I wish. Someone else was and asked for a sheet.

# ¿ Jul 18, 2016 04:34

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Amergin posted:

Todd Gurley was picked at 1.01, Julio at 1.02

You draft QBs early and often. 2QB + Dynasty = LOL SCARCITY

# ¿ Jul 18, 2016 16:07

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Forever_Peace posted:

Beer I'm sad you're not using our "pooled variance" tier calculations anymore. Why the switch back to "only the top-of-the-tier variance matter"?

I think I screwed that up, because I do recall pooled variance being superior. Remind me how we approached that again? I think I might have copied stuff over from an older sheet.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2016 01:14

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Forever_Peace posted:

Oh, yeah I can't actually see where your tiers come from, but your description says you are grouping players within 1 SD of the mean projection for the player at the top of the tier.

What we did last year after a bit of back and forth is still saved on google drive here. It takes a "pooled variance" approach with a moving tier average. Essentially, it adds players to a tier (in order) until either A) the player to add is a specified distance from the weighted tier mean (in units of the pooled variance for the whole tier), or B) the player to add would lower the mean of the tier enough to move the player at the top of the tier a specified distance from the weighted tier mean (also in units of the pooled variance for the whole tier). The columns highlighted in yellow are the columns of formulas I added to the beersheet backend you provided last year (you could probably consolidate this considerably, but I opted to make it easy to follow rather than concise). Most of the columns won't work until they are all filled in.

The "specified distance" for cutoffs is set in two places in the formula in column A. Currently, it uses a cutoff of 2/3 of a standard deviation. This is approximately equal to a 50% confidence interval for a normally distributed variable. To make this 1 SD instead of 2/3 SD, just delete the two instances of "2/3" in that column.

Thanks for the link. I think what happened is that I meant to use that method but forgot about it and just used my previous sheet. I did remember looking at things when I started back up and going "didn't I have a better method"? Turns out we did.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2016 21:47

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Well that worked out super easy Forever_Peace. Thanks for your help again; the new method has been incorporated and looks much better.

# ¿ Jul 20, 2016 00:21

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

LOL Cleveland. Gordon is going to come back and make RG3 look amazing.

# ¿ Jul 25, 2016 19:32

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

From the NFL N/V thread...

Qwijib0 posted:

538 has created a list of the teams most likely to make good starts to the season by taking into account how much each team's schedule is front/back loaded with quality opponents

pre:

	TEAM 				UNWEIGHTED 		WEIGHTED BY ORDER PLAYED 			BACKLOADED FACTOR
1 	Baltimore Ravens 		-0.1			 	+1.0 					+1.1
2 	Arizona Cardinals 		-0.1 				+0.7				 	+0.8
3 	Oakland Raiders 		-0.2 				+0.5				 	+0.7
4 	Washington Redskins 		+0.3 				+0.8				 	+0.5
5 	Seattle Seahawks 		+0.1 				+0.5 					+0.4
6 	Indianapolis Colts 		-0.6 				-0.3 					+0.4
7 	Tennessee Titans 		-0.5 				-0.2 					+0.3
8 	Green Bay Packers 		-0.5	 			-0.2 					+0.3
9 	Houston Texans 			-0.5 				-0.3 					+0.2
10 	Philadelphia Eagles 		+0.3 				+0.4 					+0.2
11 	Detroit Lions 			-0.2 				0.0 					+0.2
12 	New England Patriots 		+0.1	 			+0.2 					+0.1
13 	Miami Dolphins 			0.0 				+0.1 					+0.1
14 	New Orleans Saints 		+0.3	 			+0.4 					+0.1
15 	Dallas Cowboys 			-0.6 				-0.5 					+0.1
16 	Carolina Panthers 		-0.3 				-0.3 					+0.1
17 	Jacksonville Jaguars	 	-0.2 				-0.1 					0.0
18 	Denver Broncos 			-0.2 				-0.2 					0.0
19 	Cleveland Browns 		+0.3 				+0.3 					0.0
20 	New York Giants 		-0.3 				-0.4 					0.0
21 	San Francisco 49ers 		+0.9 				+0.8 					-0.1
22 	Chicago Bears 			-0.3 				-0.4 					-0.1
23 	Minnesota Vikings 		0.0 				-0.1 					-0.1
24 	Los Angeles Rams 		+0.6 				+0.4 					-0.2
25 	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 		+0.4 				+0.2 					-0.2
26 	Kansas City Chiefs 		-0.3 				-0.5 					-0.2
27 	Atlanta Falcons 		+0.5 				+0.2 					-0.3
28 	San Diego Chargers 		-0.5 				-0.8 					-0.3
29 	Buffalo Bills 			+0.1 				-0.3 					-0.4
30 	Pittsburgh Steelers 		-0.3 				-0.9 					-0.6
31 	New York Jets 			+0.7 				-0.1 					-0.7
32 	Cincinnati Bengals 		0.0 				-0.8 					-0.7

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/these-nfl-teams-will-probably-start-hot-because-of-an-easy-schedule/

# ¿ Jul 25, 2016 20:26

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

RCarr posted:

Keeper Question!

Looking to get some opinions on who to keep this year. I'm allowed to keep (2) TWO players. They are available to be kept in whatever round they were drafted in. Here's my best options:
(1QB/2RB/3WR/FLEX/TE/K/DEF - Non-ppr standard scoring)

LeVeon Bell - 3rd
Jordy Nelson - 15th
Kelvin Benjamin - 16th
CJ Anderson - 18th
Josh Gordon - 18th

I also sold off a few players last year so I have an extra 4th round pick, two extra 6th round picks, and an extra 11th round pick this year.

I'm leaning towards keeping LeVeon and Jordy, but I can probably make a case for LeVeon/CJ, Jordy/Kelvin, Jordy/CJ, Kelvin/CJ.

Thoughts?

(I am also in talks about trading Kelvin Benjamin for a 6th round pick to a team with poor keeper options. This would give me FOUR! 6th round picks this year )

This is tough. Do you keep them in that spot in perpetuity? Nelson is good value but I worry about the long term. Keeping Bell seems smart.

# ¿ Jul 26, 2016 19:40

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

RCarr posted:

Two year max on keepers, then they have to be released back into the pool. I kept Bell and Anderson last year, so if I keep them again this year, I have to let them go the following season.

I would still keep Bell, unless you have the first overall pick or that suspension goes through. When do you need to decide?

# ¿ Jul 26, 2016 19:48

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

RCarr posted:

Around August 20th (don't have an exact date yet).

I think Bell and Jordy is my best bet.

Wait until August 19, but I am inclined to agree.

# ¿ Jul 26, 2016 19:53

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Tiptoes posted:

There was something else that changed for Wilson last year and I didn't even realize it until I was listening to Evan Silva and Josh Norris do their NFC rundown the other week. Definitely escaped my attention during early 2015 but I perked up when I heard it on the podcast.

When they flipped C Max Unger to New Orleans for Graham, they lost a solid veteran, but they also lost the dude who had the job of calling out protection schemes for the offensive line. So losing that is a real void. When week one rolls around and they have a first year player in Drew Nowak at center, it became Russell Wilson's responsibility to call out protection schemes.

Silva/Norris were positing that the spike in his numbers coincided with his increasing comfort and improvement at making pre-snap reads and adjustments. And I can totally buy into that argument as that is an area where he can legitimately grow as a player. Food for thought at least.

Which podcast was that?

# ¿ Jul 27, 2016 12:28

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Fitzmagic is a Jet.

# ¿ Jul 28, 2016 00:07

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Leperflesh posted:

Hey beer are we gonna kick off another slow draft?

If we do I want to make it more like a regular draft. So maybe 16 rounds and no PK or DST.

# ¿ Jul 28, 2016 00:15

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Fork of Unknown Origins posted:

I have the 2nd pick in a dynasty start up draft in a couple weeks. Am I crazy for thinking about taking Luck in the 3rd? I'll be getting OBJ with my first pick (guy with the #1 already said he's taking AB) and probably best WR available with the 2nd. My 3rd will be at the top of the round and I know I'll be over drafting Luck, but I'm pretty worried that all the top tier QBs are going to be gone by the time it snakes back to me in the 4th.

If I do go Luck I get a probable top tier QB for a long time, but it is an overdraft and I'll miss out on a WR/RB. If I don't take Luck I will probably have to settle for a low tier QB later in the draft.

Probably the best answer is 'trade back to the middle/end of the round' if I can pull it off.

That's about where Luck goes (early 30s), so it's not a reach.

# ¿ Jul 28, 2016 00:42

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Leperflesh posted:

We're not mock drafting. This is a slow draft for MFL10 fantasy.

That's the problem. Originally it was designed to be a mock draft, then it became a best ball thing. For me I'd like to get more practice doing actual mock drafts at this point. If someone else wants to run it more power to them.

# ¿ Jul 28, 2016 03:17

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

IT'S ON MOTHERFUCKERS

# ¿ Jul 30, 2016 02:37

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/4vd1wb/custom_beersheets_request_form_is_live/

Custom BeerSheets request form is live.

# ¿ Jul 30, 2016 18:41

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

MacheteZombie posted:

Thanks Beer! Submitted my request already.

No problem. I am stress testing the setup so if you check the DB link it should already be there.

# ¿ Jul 31, 2016 18:59

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

The Aguamoose posted:

Thanks Beer, looks like you already made my request as well. My main league has grown to 18 people from 14, for some silly reason. Going to need the sheet now more than ever!

The changes I made this year have really made life a lot easier. I've automated pretty much everything, the sheets are sorted so folks don't come to me asking what name they put something under, duplicates are skipped without me having to do anything, it's really great.

# ¿ Jul 31, 2016 20:41

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

89 posted:

So.....how many leagues is everybody in this year? Last year, I was in 5 and that seemed like too much.

5 again. Two dynasty and three redraft including the charity league.

# ¿ Aug 1, 2016 12:55

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Drunk Nerds posted:

Yeah, your commish really needs to change one of those slots to a super flex. Otherwise, my advice would be to draft 4-5 starting qbs and trade them to desperate owners

I don't think he's saying it's a 2QB league, just that a lot of folks like to draft a backup QB. Frankly I wouldn't be part of any 2QB league unless it was 10 teams or less and there was a rule that no team could roster more than 3 QBs.

An 18 team league makes it impossible for everyone to have a second QB for bye weeks. I would propose to the commissioner that he change the QB slot to a superflex instead. At least then you can put a RB or something in your QB slot instead of being hosed over.

# ¿ Aug 1, 2016 15:00

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

RVProfootballer posted:

How come? Just adds another valuable position/strategy, instead of making QBs somewhat of an afterthought.

I agree at ten teams. More than that and someone gets screwed since you need more QBs than there are teams in the NFL. Making it superflex helps some but I still prefer to see it capped at ten.

# ¿ Aug 1, 2016 18:45

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Anyone eager to mock my mock drafting while showing off BeerSheets should go here.

# ¿ Aug 2, 2016 02:17

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

With no penalty for keeping I generally recommend going by rank or ADP.

# ¿ Aug 3, 2016 13:21

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Mikey Purp posted:

Paging Mr. Beer4theBeerGod, question for you RE: Beersheets and apologies if this has already been explained elsewhere.

I'm looking at a standard 12 team sheet and wondering how come the X/Y/P column for QBs is set to 0.5/1/P? Is that just a product of only being able to start 1 QB, making QB2 numbers irrelevant? Does that mean that the X column would have been weeks where they performed as QB1-6? And lastly, do the number of weeks in the X column exclude number of weeks in the Y column i.e. if a player has 3/6/15 in that column, those three QB0.5 weeks aren't included as part of the 6 QB1 weeks?

Yeah, because you only need one QB there's no point in knowing how often someone put up QB2 numbers. So the X column would be when they were a top 6 quarterback. Numbers in the Y column include the X column weeks since a player who is a top 6 quarterback is also a top 12 QB.

# ¿ Aug 3, 2016 16:25

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# ¿ May 22, 2024 15:38

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Lincoln posted:

Am I in the only league in the world that scores 5 points for a QB passing TD?

It's pretty rare.

# ¿ Aug 3, 2016 21:21

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2016: There is no god. Existence is a joke

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