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You guys get that these aren't B4TBG's projections, right? That isn't how beersheets work Edit: ^^^^ yeah it is
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May 22, 2016 03:10
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RVProfootballer posted:Yes, of course. Just checking. The way the responses are framed makes it seem as if beer is culpable.
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May 22, 2016 06:14
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RVProfootballer posted:Yeah, I know, it's tough to frame it accurately. Anything like "I would have so and so ranked higher" implies Beer ranked them lower, at least that's the default for me. Insert an implied "[than Beersheets have them]" rather than "[than Beer ranked them]" and I think it's good. I definitely think you are right about Jordy, but I also think he is likely to finish top five. Olsen should be the consensus two this year, because consistency matters. I also think leagues are going to be won this year at the running back position, because nobody knows how to value them.
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May 22, 2016 18:11
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:It's okay. I don't take it personally and since I'm the one aggregating all these projections it's fair to call my methods out. For example Tom Brady definitely doesn't deserve to be that low. Is it really a methodology issue? You are just stating what the current consensus is?
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May 22, 2016 20:21
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I just want to pop in and say if you aren't closely listening to what Spoeank says about fantasy football, you are doing it wrong. Everything else in life.... 
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Jun 1, 2016 14:59
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Late to replying to you, Spoeank, but the most important thing new players and even veterans need to know is that adp is a tool to help you maximize the value in getting players you want. If you are drafting a team based on what some "experts" believe, you deserve it when you lose. You'll probably lose anyway, so you might as well do it with players you like.
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Jun 13, 2016 02:29
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RVProfootballer posted:Don't care don't care. It's the difference between him being next to worthless in dynasty and me being able to dump him off to someone who likes fast receivers that can't catch the ball for like a mid first! You play with terrible players if you get a mid 1st for him. Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Adrian Peterson also got that treatment. In hindsight, I overreacted a ton at that. I thought it would devastate my team. Not really, still won it all. But AD broke my heart that year. 
Sataere fucked around with this message at 00:57 on Jun 15, 2016 |
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Jun 15, 2016 00:54
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RVProfootballer posted:Or, ya know, a bunch of experts that have Perriman between Doctson and Shepard, so somewhere around 1.04 or 1.05. I don't have to agree with it, but consensus is absolutely that he's worth a mid 1st. Reaffirming why I never trust experts.  Spoeank posted:I'm currently getting tut tutted and lectured on Twitter because I don't think ODB should be picked over AB84. I am going to incur goon wrath when I say I think ODB will have a better season than Antonio Brown. I think his numbers have been too good for too long. Sustained success at the level he has performed at is rare, even among the greats. He is due for a regression.
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Jun 15, 2016 17:32
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RVProfootballer posted:I know you know it, but don't be results oriented. He was a very risky first round pick. He was only a risky first round pick if you are afraid of drafting good players. I find it interesting that a lot of you seem to believe both that ODB is a tremendous talent and that a second year player has maxed his potential. How often do top tier players really max out in year 2? Hell, I think ODB regressed a bit in year 2, although I am basing that on memory and am too lazy to look it up. My biggest issue with AB84 is quite simple. How many times in the history of fantasy football has a player been the number one player for three years in a row? I am pretty sure the answer is never.
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Jun 17, 2016 12:38
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RVProfootballer posted:I really don't get how it is controversial to say he was a risky first round pick. Are you drafting Devante Parker as a 1200 yard, 8 TD, low end WR1/high end WR2? That's what he did for his 6 healthy games to close out last year. How about Rawls as the clear RB#1? On pace for ~1900 rushing yards and 13 TDs as a starter. If the answer is no, how do you not understand that a 12 game sample size is also very small? To me, the difference between ODB and those other guys was a judgment call. I thought OBJ was a top five receiver last year and I tend to not worry about past injury history when making drafting decisions, with very few exceptions. Also, to be fair, my comment here was tongue in cheek. If I can't call someone a scared pussy bitch for making a different draft choice than me, then what is the point of playing fantasy football?  quote:
MrSargent had a couple comments saying AB84 hasn't peaked yet, while saying people are banking on ODB making a huge leap. Of course we expect a player to make a huge leap from year two to three. Otherwise, we wouldn't be drafting him that high! quote:
You are better than this point. Once it happens, the likelihood of it happening isn't a factor. The numbers on what can or cannot happen has been rewritten. I will admit to overstating my case, but top flight fantasy players have a career trajectory on a bell curve. I think ODB is on the upswing of the curve and that AB84 is at the peak. All historical data supports my assessment that AB84 is only going to go down from here. It is the offseason and I am bored. I am willing to die defending this hill. I know you guys know statistics better than me, but I also know that I am right.
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Jun 17, 2016 17:47
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RVProfootballer posted:Yeah, I'm down with that. And this is really kinda splitting hairs. I was not comfortable with OBJ as a 1st round pick last year, but he's definitely top 3 receiver for me now. I think you are missing the point. I am only making one definitive statement. AB84 will regress. I agree that there is no direct correlation between AB84 and ODB. However, If AB84 isn't#1, by process of elimination, somebody else will be. A second year player with historic production seems like a great candidate to me. When you kill the king, somebody has to wear the crown and I am finding ODB very majestic. The point I am making is that I believe with absolute certainty that AB84 is going to see a drop in production. I have not done the math on the average percentage that drop is, but it is a concern. I think there is almost no way he equals or improves and I think to hold that expectation is folly. Even if I turn out to be wrong, I will be comfortable with the choice for the same reason I am OK with not drafting ODB his rookie year. Because it was infinitely more likely he would flame out as a rookie after being injured in training camp than that he'd have a historically good season. Just like it is infinitely more likely AB84 will regress. Frankly, I am surprised how many of you are so confident in regards to his value. I find the prospects much murkier. Vvvvvvv Dandy, the guy is keeping 16 players. That screams dynasty format.
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Jun 17, 2016 19:31
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RVProfootballer posted:I guess I don't understand what reasons you have for being so certain Brown will regress. Here's an excellent reason why he could do better: he played a full quarter of last year with Landry Jones and Michael Vick, and still put up his best year ever (tied #2 all time for single season receptions and #4 for receiving yards). If he has Ben for those 4 games, he breaks the receiving yards and receptions records. I just don't see any evidence to suggest he's on the decline, ya know? The reason is historical evidence. Top flight production in the NFL never lasts more than three years. Eventually, there is a decline.
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Jun 17, 2016 19:44
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RVProfootballer posted:This isn't true even just in the recent past and at receiver, plenty of guys have been dominant for more than three years. AJ Green? Calvin Johnson from '08 all the way to arguably '15, if you account for him losing production to injuries? Brandon Marshall? Or are you claiming it's a three consecutive year kinda rule? I am at work, but hopefully this weekend i can crank out some numbers on what I am seeing. Forever_Peace posted:The following two things are both true: I believe each time he repeats, the likelihood he will repeat again becomes exponentially more unlikely.
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Jun 17, 2016 21:32
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My big rear end money dynasty league needs keepers set. 14 teams. No limit to keepers. Salary cap $300. Starting lineup is QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/DL/DB/LB/DEF/K. 12 STARTERS/9 RESERVES/5 IR/3 PRACTICE SQUAD. Salary format is first three years, contracts increase by 10%, fourth year 20%, fifth year 50% and we haven't figured out from there. Any injury can be stashed on IR, up to 5 spots. I bolded who I am thinking of keeping. Adds up to 18 players costing $115. That will leave me with $185 to draft on 8 skill position players, since I have stashed the practice squad and IR to capacity with guys I am keeping. Let me know what you think. Also debating cutting Watt and seeing if I can get him cheaper. From a position advantage standpoint, he is worth it, but he was just average last year in our league and I am wondering if it is worth the cost, with his injury. I think it is worth the risk to try getting him back cheaper, because he likely won't start the season. I am pissed I drafted Mack for cheap and then cut him three weeks into the season. I need to be patient with rookies in dynasty formats. Derek Carr -- $4 Lamar Miller -- $10 Kamar Aiken -- $4 Allen Robinson -- $6 Zach Miller -- $2 JJ Watt -- $21 Teddy Bridgewater -- $3 Jeremy Hill -- $4 Stefon Diggs -- $10 Cardinals -- $2 Jordan Matthews -- $2 Tyler Eifert -- $6 Maxx Williams -- $2 Andrew Luck -- $29 Karlos Williams – $2 Zach Zenner -- $2 Steve Smith – $2 Eric Ebron -- $4 Tim Hightower -- $22 Larry Fitzgerald -- $41 Malcolm Smith -- $2 Malcolm Jenkins -- $2 Ryan Mathews -- $32 Graham Gano -- $2 Bryce Brown -- $19 Jaelen Strong -- $2 Marshawn Lynch -- $51 Tevin Coleman -- $52 Marquess Wilson -- $10
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Aug 17, 2016 19:06
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RVProfootballer posted:Keep Strong over Smith. Also how do the IDPs score? Watt is probably not worth that price when you only start 1, plus his injury issues this offseason. Conversely, could be worth holding Malcolms Jenkins and Smith for $2 each, if you're free to drop and add them during the season if they disappoint or better options become available. Is strong really worth it? I think I can get him back at a similar contract. I haven't heard anything about him. For the Malcolms, I can. It is FAAB and that becomes the player's contract. I am going to look it over, because I had a similar thought on both. And an interesting new development just emerged. There is an expansion draft, and I need to protect 6 players. Everyone else is available. Which six do you protect?
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Aug 17, 2016 19:35
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RVProfootballer posted:Strong is only $2, don't get much cheaper than that. I just think he's another rookie you should be patient with for another year at least, at minimal cost. I guess if you expect you can drop him and get him for $1 off the wire, might as well. I think even at his price, Luck is a must keep. There are 300 and 400 yard bonuses for QBs and big time quarterback play is huge. Also, I have carefully managed my salary cap so as to be able to take on his contract. Mt list was Carr, Luck, Miller, Robinson, Eifert and Hill. I will only lose two players of the unprotected ones, but I just targeted the six best players. My question is really between Matthews and Hill. Which is the better player ADP wise in dynasty?
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Aug 17, 2016 20:42
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Looking at the above, the top five players are consistently Lamar miller Jordan Matthews Allen Robinson Andrew Luck Tyler Eifert Then it gets murky. Honestly, it seems like keeping Carr could be the wrong call at six. But a lot of places like Diggs long term and I am not so sure. Hill is a solid choice, because I think he might fall back to me. I think I will look at other teams to see what prospective players could be available and go from there
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Aug 17, 2016 21:21
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RVProfootballer posted:Any PPR? Any rushing bonuses? Matthews is pretty easily above Hill even in standard scoring for me, but in PPR it's no contest. Here's some database of mocks from this year to get a sense for ADP, but that's hands down Matthews everywhere I've seen: http://mizelle.net/mfl/2016/ Forgot to say 1PPR so yeah, Matthews is a no brainer. I am just still salty from last year. It really comes down to Diggs, Hill or Carr. I was just offered Keenan Allen ($47 ) for Lamar Miller ($10) Is it worth countering Hill and Diggs for Allen? 1PPR, I could be trotting out Allen/Robinson/Matthews and still have plenty of cap space for the draft.
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Aug 17, 2016 22:04
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Miller is untradable at this point unless I am blown away. Also, as down as I am on Matthews, I don't want to give him away. Allen will be gone in two years, but good drafting will hopefully mean his replacement is in the wings. Gonna counter with Diggs/Hill.
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Aug 17, 2016 23:20
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Boon posted:So I have the option of taking the following in our 1PPR keeper auction draft: Need more information. First, how many keepers can you keep? Second, what is your salary cap?
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Aug 19, 2016 14:40
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If you bastards haven't joined the cheating for charity league, you need to get on it. It's time to put your crippling autism to good use.
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Aug 23, 2016 22:02
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BigSexyWitGlasses posted:I'd like some advice on what to do with my No. 2 pick in the draft I'm scheduled to have tomorrow; All 14 teams kept 2 players of their choice and mine are A.J. Green & Drew Brees. Apparently the 1st pick is going to be Ezekiel Elliot and that leaves me next and I'm pretty undecided. It's a 1 ppr league, 6 pt rushing & receiving tds, 4 pt passing, that's pretty much the most important poo poo I guess. One ppr, you need to take some share of Jeffrey / Allen / Thomas and not look back. Freeman is viable, but the other picks at WR seem safer.
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Aug 25, 2016 01:42
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Doltos posted:What would you guys think about taking Allen Robinson over DeAndre Hopkins this year? I don't think the Jags offensive share changes much with Ivory coming into town and his QB situation does look a lot better. It isn't crazy at all. I personally lean towards it myself. Allen Robinsons numbers were not really generated by unsustainable targets. Jacksonville spread the ball. I think Robinson is a very high floor / high ceiling type of player. Because that offense wasn't truly clicking last year so much as desperately trying to play catch up.
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Aug 27, 2016 00:43
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First draft of the year. 12 man 0PPR. I had pick 12/12. How did I do? QB -- Derek Carr RB -- Jamaal Charles RB -- Lamar Miller WR -- Jeremy Maclin WR -- Donte Moncrief FLEX -- Carlos Hyde TE -- Jared Cook BN-- Kelvin Benjamin BN-- Melvin Gordan BN-- D. Jackson BN-- M. Crabtree BN-- M. Jones BN-- M. Stafford Kicker/Def -- who cares I think I probably need to get another RB, just to be safe, but I think I grabbed so much value, I don't know who I would drop. Thoughts?
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Aug 28, 2016 17:59
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the_american_dream posted:There is a "rate my team" thread, my pals Is there? Is it called something else, because I don't see it at all. MacheteZombie posted:I thought I had a chance for about 5 seconds (which was how long it took the 3rd spot to make their pick) In my mind, he was forcibly dragged into solitary because he wouldn't get off the phone, screaming about autodrafting a defense the entire way.
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Aug 28, 2016 18:29
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coronaball posted:Keep as-is and hope Jones or Gordon become fantasy-serviceable players. To be clear, that is Marvin Jones, not Matt Jones. Hence my concern about running back depth. I posted in the other thread. Thanks
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Aug 28, 2016 19:31
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Tiptoes posted:DeSean Jackson can easily be replaced by any WR3 you can get off waivers midseason. A boom/bust WR who will likely be 3rd or 4th in target share on the Redskins. Feel free to lose him for an RB lotto ticket. He missed the first half of last season, but was pretty incredible for that offense in the second half. I think he is seriously undervalued in 0PPR. But I do get where you are coming from.
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Aug 28, 2016 19:54
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Tiptoes posted:Cousins' skillset is more suited to possession-type WRs, not deep threats like Jackson. If they scheme the ball to him he could have a bounceback year, but Reed is the unquestioned #1 in that offense and Pierre Garcon and Jamison Crowder are going to have larger roles than Jackson owners are going to prefer. I don't see how Jackson will be a predictable WR3 to own and on Sataere's team, he is a fungible player. Why keep him around if you have guys like Maclin/Moncrief/Benjamin/Jones/Crabtree who all sport 20% target shares? Because why drop him a lesser player? He had double digits points most games he played in last season. Reed might be the number one, but his availability is a constant question. Also, I don't think you watched Washington play last season if you think they are running a dink and dunk offense. Cousins definitely has no problems pushing it down the field. And how does DJax not get 20% target shares when compared to that group? What distribution are you seeing that I am missing? Is Reed getting 80% of the looks? Crowder is a second year player who hasn't proven anything. It is unlikely he turns into DeAndre Hopkins. Jones and Moncrief are odd examples for 20% tare shares,when they ate both in spots with more proven mouths to feed. I am just curious what I am missing.
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Aug 28, 2016 20:30
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Tiptoes posted:D-Jax was on an 87 target pace in the games he played last year whereas Garcon was still on pace for 103 targets in those same games. And Crowder is definitely a young slot receiver liked by Jay Gruden and his staff. They're going to run so many 3WR sets that Crowder will be on the field roughly as much as the other two. This is the target distribution from last year and I just don't see how any of the secondary weapons are going to stand out week to week. Garcon is still a starter and will see 90+ targets again, Crowder is an up and coming player who should see 80+ again, so Jackson is going to see what maybe 90? 95? Doesn't play a real red zone role either; saw all of 4 targets in the red zone last year with no scores and was 5/12 with one score in 2014. And he's no stranger to soft tissue injuries either so we can't really assume he'll stay healthy. Looking at your other options, I don't know when you would feel comfortable starting him so he's completely expendable in my opinion. Thanks for that breakdown, because now I see where you are coming from. I get how you inferred Obviously I am with you on Moncrief, I just am saying nothing is guaranteed. And Marvin Jones will be sharing targets with a lot of people. Jackson would have been on pace for almost 90 targets, which is awesome if he does that. Remember, this is 0PPR. Jackson has never really been a target machine, but he a guy I can plug in and have a reasonable expectation of getting 90 yards and a TD if I put him in 66% of the time. That is an awesome expectation for where I am taking him. Spoeank posted:I'm not touching a single member of the Washington Professional Football Franchise. I have similar feelings, but value is value.
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Aug 28, 2016 22:34
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Spiros posted:DGB looked great yesterday actually. Turn left!
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Aug 29, 2016 00:09
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DTaeKim posted:I offered that first, but he nixed that immediately. He basically wants Alshon and another WR for AP. If he would go Alston / Dorsett, I would strongly consider it. Unfortunately, you have no WR depth
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Aug 29, 2016 00:46
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Doltos posted:A.J. Green limped off the field like 5 minutes after a guy took him in the first in our draft. It was great talking poo poo about that the rest of the way. When my wife used to play fantasy football, she would do poo poo like this and dominate the regular season. He prepared to crown Daly is all I am saying.
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Aug 29, 2016 04:06
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Tiptoes posted:Clive Walford is a solid second-year TE but I think people are getting a little too hyped about him. The match-up with the Saints is pretty juicy so he's got Week 1 value. But Bill Musgrave offenses are never as pass-happy as the Raiders were last year. Musgrave is a run run RUN kind've guy and Oakland's beefing up their offensive line in the offseason coincides with Musgrave's general tendencies. Walford is a capable blocker AND receiver so he's a great football prospect find for the Raiders cause he'll be on the field a ton doing everything you could ask for from a TE. But I personally doubt the passing volume will be there to make him a TE1. 
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Sep 9, 2016 02:23
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Is Vance McDonald a legitimate flier for week 1 if your TE doesn't start? Cook, Walford both gone and Rudolph scares me. Any under the radar guys I should be worried about? It appears my league likes their back up tight ends more than I do.
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Sep 10, 2016 00:10
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For all of you who let Forte go in their drafts because he just turned 30 and was in a timeshare, shame on you. His drop as a top RB this offseason made no sense. To the point that I thought maybe I was the crazy one missing something. I am very happy with all of my shares of him.
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Sep 11, 2016 23:26
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^^^^^^^^ EDIT: We can trust that you hate everything Silly Burrito posted:Never believe anyone in this thread. We all know squat. Also, I don't think anyone in this thread said start Walford over Allen. Just that he was an ideal pick if all your options were garbage. You can trust me. I am in this thread.
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Sep 12, 2016 00:11
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Cigar Aficionado posted:I started Cook over Allen and will probably lose because of it. I also started Tyrod Taylor. Lol. I think your problems are that your roster is bad.
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Sep 12, 2016 00:14
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Dynasty auction league. The way contracts work is the increase by 10% the first three years. 20% the fourth year, 50% the fifth year. As it is the third year of the league, we haven't worked out the subsequent years. I was offered Woodhead ($6) for either my Carr($4) or my Stafford($3). 1ppr, rushing/receiving/passing bonuses. I already have Luck, Wentz and Lynch. He only has Russell Wilson. I like Woodhead as my RB2, but I have some doubts about overpaying. Thoughts?
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Sep 14, 2016 20:07
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IcePhoenix posted:If you only start one QB then you have no reason to be holding on to three quarterbacks, and getting Woodhead for a QB that is on the waiver wire in a lot of 1 QB leagues (both of them are on the WW in one of my leagues, and Stafford is in the other one too) in ppr is straight up theft. You get that this is dynasty, right? None of those QBs are on waivers. Hence why I am asking the question. I don't mind trading my young, cheap players for proven veteran talent. The last time I made that move, I traded Reed and Mariota for Lynch, on the recommendation of this thread because I don't need young guys who don't start. I hated the trade at the time, and hindsight only makes it worse. If I am getting an RB2, I want to be sure I maximize my value. I just offered Stafford and Miller to the Hyde owner because his QB is garbage. Woodhead worries me because of his age and questionable usage going forward. I don't mind moving Carr or Stafford. My question is which one is more valuable going forward? And what return should I look for from the other one. (I will trade the least valuable one)
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Sep 15, 2016 03:30
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| # ¿ May 3, 2024 04:39 |
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RVProfootballer posted:Yeah, not sure I'd do Carr or Stafford on cheap deals for a 30 year old midget, even one as cool as Woodhead. Also, I'm assuming that offer was Stafford + Braxton Miller? You'd be fleecing the other team, but if he's desperate for QB and there aren't many available, you might be close to pulling it off. Figure Stafford and Carr are each worth a late 1st to early 2nd, and a little more to a needy team. Probably your best bet will be to do what you're doing and package them with a decent WR or trendy flier (Tyrell Williams!) to try to grab someone with maybe some question marks but RB1 upside (Rawls, Hyde, Dougie, Forte, Charles, probably in that order in terms of value). Totally depends on your league, though, and how much they all buy into the "hoard young WRs and way devalue RBs over 28" strategy. Zack Miller, which is more of a ripoff. The sad thing is the guy I am trying to get Hyde from only has him because I traded him to him in the first place. My league overvalues all its players. If the Hyde thing gains no legs, what do you think of Decker/Crabtree and Woodhead for one of those QBs? Is that asking too much?
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Sep 15, 2016 05:32
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