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Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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In for Hillary, because I can't image Trump can go 7 months without either calling her a oval office, or her runningmate something similarly offensive.

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Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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I gotta be honest, I'm way more excited to see the First Laddie giving Republicans heart palpitations than I am about Madam President.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Homework Explainer posted:

lmao wrong thread, have mercy

Only if you post pics of you in a Hillary signature pantsuit.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Surely some enterprising mixologist has made an official Clinton drink by this point. Other than the blowjob shot of course.

DemeaninDemon posted:

Question is: do you live in Florida or Ohio?

As a Floridian, I know mine is among the most important votes in the nation. But how sweet would it be if my vote didn't even matter because Arizona and Georgia are actually in play come November?

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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smg77 posted:

And impeachment proceedings will begin before she removes her hand from the bible. :shobon:

There's an old saying in Washington — I know it's in Arkansas, probably in Washington — that says, Impeach a Clinton once, shame on — shame on you. Impeach a — you can't Impeach a Clinton again.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Quorum posted:

Give Hillary D&D (comedy option: GIP) and Trump FYAD.

As for Jill Stein? TCC. :getin:

Trump has to get ADTRW, since he's going to make anime real.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Homework Explainer just really wants to show off that pantsuit.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Cugel the Clever posted:

The bitch and her clique don't deserve it and will undoubtedly usher in a level of disillusionment with our political system that makes what we see now look like mild displeasure. I won't be voting for her, but there is no set of circumstances in which I see her not taking the presidency (barring some black swan event), though the race is entirely hers to lose.

:toxx: for Hillary Clinton. May the universe have mercy on us.

It's cute that you think that right now is the height of political disillusionment.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Cugel the Clever posted:

"The" height? Where'd I say that?

The way you phrased the horrors of Hillary's regime increasing disillusionment from where it is now implied that you thought it was currently at a high water mark.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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This is what is going to happen.

Hillary is going to win, and she's going to probably be a little above average as a president. She will however give us a liberal leaning Supreme Court for at least a generation.

While that is happening the GOP will once again do a post election autopsy, the results of which will indicate that maybe they could be less racist and bring in some minority and younger voters. The establishment will champion this cause.

Meanwhile, the base will be apoplectic and double down on their old white rear end in a top hat ideology. Trump will have lost not because he's a clown, running in a miasma of hate that they have inculcated. It'll be because he was betrayed by the RINO establishment. They will be emboldened when in 2018 they take back the Senate and the media pretends that the country is clearly rejecting Clinton policies. It's not that Democrats are physically incapable of turning out in off year elections.

In 2020 the Republicans will nominate some jagoff like Tom Cotton as their standard bearer. He will likely be destroyed in the general election.

While the Republican party is getting more and more conservative, repelling any real attempts to expand the party, the Democrats will be getting more liberal. This will continue until another party realignment happens because the dessicated corpse of the modern GOP can no longer sustain itself. Once the parties begin realigning, the the Republicans will have another shot at the Presidency. Or, if Hillary is caught with an intern in 2019, that might make a difference.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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neonnoodle posted:

I'm imagining a future in which the Democratic party becomes the rightmost party, and a Socialist/Social Democratic party emerges as the left.

Doesn't history dictate that a new party wear the discarded vestige of a former time? The Whigs called back to the founders, and the Republicans revived the pre-Jacksonian Republican part of the Democratic-Republican part.

The Know Nothings are ripe for reviving I guess.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Vox Nihili posted:

Pretty much every election people say this and the GOP has continued to pick up more and more seats over time.

The Republican Party is structured in such a way that they are pervasive throughout many states, especially in the South, but have an increasingly hard time with the Electoral College. This is double edged as it keeps them in power legislatively, but that continued success means that they are unable to fix their national level problems. If they continue to fail to course correct, they will eventually run into a wall on the legislative side, but that's not in the immediate future.

With a two party system there's always a possibility for the Republicans to take back the White House at some point. However their insistence on doubling down is making it a slimmer and slimmer chance. So they will continue on, with the question being whether a realignment happens before or after their inability to recruit new blood drives them the way of the Federalists and Whigs before them.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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The anti-gerrymandering laws are going to take a while to finally get implemented. Florida passed a couple amendments in 2010 that says partisan districts are unconstitutional, and they're still being fought in the courts. Corrine Brown is trying to get her district thrown out in federal court because one of the worst districts in the nation is what black people in Florida apparently deserve. It's not fair that the new district is still overwhelmingly minority and looks close to reasonable, she'll have competition for the first time in for ever.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Alucard Nacirema posted:

What makes you think Democrates are guaranteed the votes of "non-whites"?

Are you a time traveler from back before the split of the Dixiecrats from the Democrats?

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Alucard Nacirema posted:

I know plenty of Asians (many of whom are Muslim) who will be voting republican come November. So no every minority person in this country is not automatically going to vote for Clinton. Nobody is guaranteed votes sorry.

Yes, and Trump is going to have Mexicans who vote for him while Hillary is going to have Mormons and Liberty University students and faculty voting for her.

When people say that a group votes a certain way, they are saying that as a whole that group overwhelmingly votes that way. There is no group that votes 100% one way, there are always outliers. So until you know enough of any set group personally, say 50% of all Asians, anecdotal examples aren't that meaningful.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Mirthless posted:

:drat:

Considering the treatment of asian immigrants by the US over the years, it's really not that surprising, but god drat that is a big margin.

White people are the only ones looking to build walls and start trade wars. Probably because they're the only group who want to make America Great Again, like it was in the 1950s. Guess non-whites just don't remember how great it was in 1950.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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It's just too bad we can't get 90s Bill Clinton tag teaming this poo poo with Trollbama.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Yoshifan823 posted:

I mean, I agree that it was dumb of them, and I wish they had waited until tomorrow, but they're only confirming what everyone has known for a week.

If you genuinely think that Hillary isn't the presumptive nominee, then you either think Sanders is gonna get a blowout win tomorrow that puts him ahead in the delegate count, Sanders is going to convince enough super delegates to switch their votes to him that he has more delegates at the convention, or that Hillary is going to be indicted, which is basically saying that you hope you win the lottery. I don't think this helps the Clinton campaign any, certainly, but the end result isn't gonna change any.

Everyone has known for months. So what they're doing is trying to scoop the actual election for no loving reason other than being first. It would be like if on election eve 2012 they ran a story at 8:00pm that Obama was going to win the election. Yes, it is accurate and anyone following the race knew that it was going to happen. It's still wrong, and quite frankly, morally repugnant. Wait until the votes are cast or at the very least give your rear end in a top hat statement of fact a week or three before the election.

We've known that Hillary was going to be the nominee since around the same time we knew Obama was going to be the nominee in '08. We also knew that there was no way the Super Delegates were going to over rule the entire primary season up to this point and give it to the candidate with less pledged delegates, who had lost. Call it when New Jersey closes it's polls, or wait until California votes. Don't come out 12 hours before the election with some old rear end news repackaged just to poo poo all over anyone coming out to vote tomorrow.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Zeroisanumber posted:

Obama won't withdraw Garland's nomination because it would look like he used a good man and talented jurist as a part of a cynical political ploy. If Hillary wins, I expect that the GOP will continue to obstruct until the next congress is sworn in. There's the off-chance that they'll confirm him, but I doubt it. They've been stuck on "fling yourself to the ground while screaming and making GBS threads your pants" as a political strategy for so long that I think they'll keep it up out of habit.

As for who she'd pick, I don't know. The three indicators to look for beyond talent are: young-ish, minority, and liberal as all get out.

No, the day after the election Garland will be fast tracked. They aren't going to roll the dice and hope Hillary doesn't appoint a Notorious RBG 2.0. Garland is their best case replacement for Scalia and they know it.

Hillary's 5 minute long cackle to start her victory speech is going to light a fire under the Senate GOP to get what they can from Obama in the lame duck Congress.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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DemeaninDemon posted:

I like Hillary and Sanders. So um I guess shoot me?

A monster, just like 80someodd percent of all Democratic Party members.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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mcmagic posted:

She's getting better.

Can someone tell me what that excitement we saw at her rally last night is justified by in her record that I as a progressive should get excited about? I'm 100% going to vote for her but I don't get it...

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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e_angst posted:


The closer we get to election day, the higher the likelihood that Trump will be crying himself to sleep each night. By October it's gonna look like he has a bad case of pinkeye.

:abuela:

My only fear is that Donald melts down before the RNC and they manage to get rid of him. Please wait until after Cleveland's golden coronation to melt down like Chernobyl, Short Fingered Vulgarian.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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My guess is Hillary drops the $12 compromise stand on minimum wage entirely, pledges to crack down on Wall Street(with a Bernie chosen person personally in charge of swinging the truncheon), emphasizing the awesomeness of diplomacy via the Iran Deal to assuage worries over the Iraq vote, goes with Bernie's Social Security plan, goes with the public option plan and drug negotiation for the ACA reform, then splits the difference on their college affordability plans.

Also if we're going with dream scenarios tells Netanyahu to go gently caress himself in Prime Time, declares a war on crumbling infrastructure, promises a pardon for all nonviolent marijuana offenders, and coopts Newt's moonbase dreams.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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computer parts posted:

Important to note that she doesn't believe in a universal $12 minimum wage. Rather, she believes that the minimum wage should be regionally weighted, and that minimum should be $12.

Yeah, but that's what she's being attacked on by the Sanders wing. Universal $15 as a policy plank seems like the way to appease them, then break their hearts by compromising back to tiered increases. What are they going to do, vote against her in 2018? Sort of like how Obama railed against Health Care mandates and then that became a central part of the ACA.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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computer parts posted:

80% of "the Sanders wing" is perfectly fine with her policies. Of the remaining, the percentage that aren't going to vote for her but would if she bumped up the minimum wage by $3 is probably vanishingly small.

I don't disagree, but the point of the concession isn't so much the substance but the spectacle. Caving on the tiered minimum wage gives a stronger image of Bernie getting things. It's also something that can easily be modified down the road due to Congress. She's going to be looking for things that give the most visible message of inclusion while impacting her preferred policies the least.

Wanamingo posted:

Wasn't that mostly because Obama was a Pollyanna who thought he could get the republicans to work with him if he just tried hard enough?

I don't know that it was as much believing that Republicans would come along on the magic carpet ride as it was a concession to get the Insurance Companies not to fight it tooth and nail. Like the concession that drug negotiating was off the table.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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DemeaninDemon posted:

Between two candidates one will always be the lesser of two evils anyway. We all have sin. Especially Trump.

You could even say that one is better, instead of less evil.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Apoplexy posted:

You don't know awkward and bad Hillary until you hear her pandering to a Southern black audience. I DON'T FEEEEEEEEEEL NO WAYS TIIIIIIIRED

I kind of feel encouraged by her horrible, awkward, bad pandering to different audiences. She realizes that they have different needs and wants, but she's not a smooth enough operator to express that in any way other than bad accents and changed syntax. It's an honest falseness.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Base Camp Blanket posted:

Baby's first Toxx.

I'm not as confident in Hilldawg's victory as I wish I could be, but the earth will rapidly be destroyed in hellfire if Trump wins anyway, so... Yay! Now I get to post in a Toxx thread!

Relax. In 2016 this map is not so batshit crazy that it would be laughed out of the room at this point. It is not Dick Morris wrong. That is the poo poo hole that the Republicans have dug themselves into.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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trapped mouse posted:



This poo poo is getting ridiculous. People are buying so much into "Hillary is an evil corporate harpy that feeds exclusively on the blood of the oppressed" that whenever anyone who is progressive endorses her, rather than looking at Hillary's progressive policies they immediately assume that the progressive person they once followed is a false idol and only people who support Bernie are True Liberals™

Also, it's hilarious how the people who were saying "I'm not a sexist because I won't vote for Hillary, I would vote for Warren!" Then when Warren literally just endorses the democratic nominee, suddenly that all changes, and Warren of all people is a corporate fascist.

Found this on Facebook, where someone explained in the comments that the only moral thing to do is to write in Bernie. Today has given me an actual literal headache due to various political things.

There are 2 types of Sandernistas, just as there were 2 types of Clintonites in '08. Those who are angry now and lashing out but will come to reason by November, and those who look at the PUMA movement and say, "Yes. Yes, that insanity is my jam." Of course, given demographics there probably is one difference between Sandernistas and Clintonites, SAndernistas contain a 3rd faction who were never going to vote anyway because the youth don't vote.

All the sexism and venom are just par for the course. At this point in '08 the Clinton and Obama camps were still swirling vortexes of misogyny and racism. Raw, pulsating, masses of anger who saw each other as worse than McCain. Then again, there's a far smaller percentage of Bernie supporters who are #NeverHillary than there were Clinton supporters who fervently chanted party unity my rear end. Give it a month or so, and following Bernie officially dropping out and Clinton and Bernie talking up how much they love each other, and all that will be left are a handful of bitter assholes who wouldn't have voted anyway. The types of people who either had Bernie and Trump as their number 1 and 2 choices, or the types who found Bernie the most palatable conservative choice.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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I'm down to only worrying about going too hard against Trump now when the RNC can still technically back out. Please keep at least one hand tied behind your back until July 21st. Then bury him in a shallow grave in the desert.

Vox Nihili posted:

Well he has been paying for most of it himself so far, it's not like he's getting more than pocket change in donations. The fact that he's pissing away his fortune is an added bonus to this whole thing.

No, he's been paying himself the whole time. Everything has been run through Trump infrastructure which the campaign has been paying for. In addition to all the money from hats and poo poo that he's been totally not asking for at all. Probably about the only thing that isn't the Trump Campaign paying the Trump Organization for usages of equipment and personnel are the 5 people who are just campaign staff and some increased security costs prior to Secret Service protection.

If he were even half decent at fund raising he would have had all the Pauls and general campaign grifters crying tears of envy. Imagine a billion dollars being funneled through his organization.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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The map is going to look like an updated '64 map. Only with the Libertarians playing the role of Wallace in '68. Just pure insanity.

The greatest trick the Clintons ever pulled was convincing Trump to run.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Yoshifan823 posted:

A question somebody actually asked me while I was registering people to vote (with a Hillary sticker on):

"So will you be ok if Hillary enacts Sharia Law?"

Dude was wearing a Rocky Horror shirt at Pride, it came out of loving nowhere.

Did you ask him if he was fine with the arbitration agreement he made with Apple?

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Al! posted:

im not gonna perma but things are looking bad for sr. trump



I really doubt it, but does this model take into account the hilarious fiction that is the Trump ground game?

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Vox Nihili posted:

Reminder that Trump had $1.3m in the bank 20 days ago. He's probably sitting on a cool half million or so at this point. Looks like he's been "borrowing" less and less from himself over time, too, which might signal an unwillingness to sacrifice too much of his fortunate (or, hilariously, the end of his liquidity.)

It's looking more and more like this election is going to give us the most amazing academic experiment. What percentage of voters will come out and vote Republican no matter what? No get out the vote ground game, no actual advertising, the party itself distancing themselves from the candidate. Additionally they are being shamed against voting for that nominee by their surrounding community(admittedly to varying degrees) and the general national culture. Nothing but a person on the ballot with (R) following their name who occasionally goes on TV and says such insane poo poo that the American Media calls them out.

Just a whole cycle of data on people who you can not stop from voting Republican by any means short of force.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Northjayhawk posted:

This would not have changed my decision to perma-:toxx:, but I'm just curious. What if Hillary has a massive heart attack tomorrow and dies? Are we still on the hook? I figure its probably good to be clear about the crazy scenarios now, before they happen.


The only way that Hillary can end up not being the President Elect come November and we still don't get banned is if whoever wins changes their name to Hillary Clinton and we successfully rules lawyer the issue.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Okonner posted:

I assume many are serious but Boosted is a gimmick guaranteed.

Pretty impressive how he hasn't broken kayfabe in at least 4 years.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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I also think they're holding back on slamming Trump while he's still not the official nominee. Other than simply what he's said in the last couple days before she make a speech, the only historic thing Hillary has hit Trump on is Bankruptcy.

Bernie, Biden, Barack, and Bill gonna be dunking on Trump all day every day after the convention. It's gonna be a massacre. Hillary is probably going to spend most of her time cultivating her image as :abuela: ; the nice grandma you can trust to crush her enemies, watch them driven before her, and listen to the lamentation of their women/men.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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You know what the best thing about Trump is? All the Republicans I know who actually vote are right there with me laughing at the orange buffoon. The Republicans I know who don't vote are sure he's going to win, but not sure enough to take me up on a free lunch bet. Nothing like sharing idiotic Trump news with people who were very seriously angry at both Obama wins.

Afraid of Audio posted:

you might as well make this a perma toxx thread at this point yeesh

You should have to opt out of the perma toxx at this point.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Northjayhawk posted:

I know that this is just a useless anecdote, but my mom, who is over 60 and has voted Republican all her life, is PISSED at the GOP for nominating that orange roaring jackass, and will be voting for Hillary.

edit: wow, that gang tag is beautiful

Yeah, total anecdotes, but I've never seen so many Republicans openly pissed about the nominee. Like, even the evangelicals I know didn't have this much of an issue when heretical cultist Romeny was the nominee.

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Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Swedgin posted:

At this point, my biggest plausible concern is complacency, so I'm glad the Clinton campaign seems to be anticipating a possible scenario in which the electorate says "gently caress it, Hillary's got this" and no one shows up to vote.

The most likely scenario in a situation where everyone believe Hillary is going to win is that her supporters turn out while Trump supporters stay home. People like a winner, and Hillary is winning. By November Trump is going to be tired of how much she's winning.

The Clinton campaign should still shift the narrative though. This isn't about Hillary winning, it's about totally repudiating Trump. Putting the first woman into the White House by a margin that ensures 2016 is taught in History class, and that everyone now and forever can see that America doesn't stand for Trump's scam. Do it not only so Uncle Sam, Lady Liberty, and the Founding Fathers can be proud, do it so you can look you mother, your sister, your abuela in the eye come November 9th.

Also because, holy poo poo are the Republicans gonna freak the gently caress out when Bill calls them up from the Oval Office to ask them if they like apples. Like, remember when Karl Rove melted down over Ohio? That's gonna be every single GOP operative. Rush may stroke out on air the next day.

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