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  • Locked thread
Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

Neil Armbong posted:

I want to disagree with the Strong status, but can't. I think he's a good coach and will root for his success to the end, but am unsure if he can do enough to save himself this year.

I don't know, if it feels like we're right on the edge this year he could stick around with as few as 7 wins. Getting to and winning a bowl game is going to be pretty key. Beating OU again would help him immensely. I'm torn on whether beating ND would actually be good for him or not. If he beats ND people are immediately going to be talking about a playoff run, and then those hopes are going to crash and burn at some point. I think he might do better by setting expectations lower and then getting a signature win or two later in the season. But then again I think beating ND and OU and finishing with a bowl win gives him a pretty excellent chance of getting another year.

It will also help Strong if Tom Herman loses a few games this year.

Thermos H Christ fucked around with this message at 00:18 on Jun 7, 2016

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Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
Back on the Strong topic, it occurs to me that this whole Baylor thing will definitely not hurt him when it comes time to decide his fate. Strong has established an image for himself as a guy who is serious about running a clean program, in particular when it comes to criminality. That's going to put that much more pressure on the school to stand by him, and there's already quite a bit. Plus if he has even a marginally better season he's going to be poised to take his recruiting to the next level. His success in recruiting so far has been in no small part because he sells parents on how he's going to mold junior into a fine young man. Parents can exert a lot of influence over these decisions. That's going to become an even bigger selling point in the aftermath of Baylorgeddon, and there's going to be one less competitor for in-state talent if Baylor is in shambles.

I don't think anything saves him if he turns in another losing season, but from where I'm standing it's kinda hard to see him getting fired if he wins 7+ during the regular season. I'm no longer standing by my thoughts about the importance of a bowl win, because the decision will likely be made one way or the other before any bowl game is played.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

Korranus posted:

I think Strong and UT are going to be fine, and that's not just because of Tom Herman being where he is. It takes time to do a complete organization build even at somewhere like UT, even more so given all the booster and top admin chaos. They beat OU last year, they'll make a bowl for sure this year, hell they might take a big leap.

On the other hand, Tyrone Swoopes.

If Swoopes is QB1, it will be ugly. I like the guy, and I love seeing him do his 18-wheeler thing, but he cannot be the main guy. It has to be Heard or Buechele. You never want to pin your hopes on a true freshman QB, but Buechele impressed in the spring game for sure. Of course, that's another thing you don't want to pin your hopes on.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

R.D. Mangles posted:

What happened to Heard? I thought he was going to be amazing after that Cal game, but then I guess he got hurt and now he's not the clear guy in spring practice? Dude could throw and is shifty as hell.

He had some real rough games later on last year, after other teams started seeing tape on him and figuring out his go-to moves. And he could throw a pretty good deep ball but he never seemed to be able to make the quick intermediate throws, which is rough in the offense we're trying to run this year. Of course Swoopes sucks at those too, his signature move is hurling the ball ridiculously hard to someone who is like 8 yards away. Heard's kind of the opposite, he's decent at putting a floaty ball up where his guy can get underneath it downfield, but he has a hard time not throwing a floaty ball on passes that are 5-10 yards downfield, in that area where there tend to be a lot of defenders running around.

But I think by far the biggest piece of the Heard story right now is that he got hurt and was out for most of Spring ball. We'll see if he can contend when he's back in.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

Dr. Gitmo Moneyson posted:

When is Heard expected to be back? Last I checked we still didn't know the severity of his injury.

I don't think we know exactly what happened, but it was a shoulder injury, not an ACL tear or anything. Unless something else happens I think we can assume he'll be good to go when fall practice starts.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
Saban to LSU, Briles OC, Muschamp DC you heard it here first done deal

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
I cannot tell you how relieved I was when PSU hired Franklin because it meant that Texas couldn't hire him. Once that happened there was nobody left on the board who would've deeply disappointed me.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

Sab0921 posted:

I still have friends that are convinced Saban to Texas was a done deal that was unwound by PC FORCES that wanted a black coach.

The version I always hear is that Mack's stalling killed the deal. The Mack stalling thing was real, but I've never seen any credible evidence that there was a deal to be killed. There was a much-publicized meeting scheduled with the Prez/AD to discuss his future and when the day arrived he told them he couldn't make it back to Austin and kept flying around Texas and Florida using up as many in-home visits with our recruits as possible. I think that may have even coincided with that period of a few days when Saban hadn't signed his contract extension at Bama.

Doesn't seem plausible to me. I know Mack did a lot for this place and they wanted to do things the right way, but I really doubt they would've let a done deal with Saban fall through purely because they thought it was too disrespectful to fire Mack over the phone.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
Not that I'm inclined to trust Steve Patterson on anything, but here's his version of the entire thing:

quote:

I’ve known Jimmy [Sexton] for 30 years. I told him if he wanted to come here and drink bourbon and eat barbecue and talk about Saban, that’d be fine. But I told him not to come here if he just wanted to get Saban an extension and a raise at Alabama, which I thought was his intention all along. Of course, Jimmy took great affront to that, which is fine. He was just doing his job. But that was the end of the conversation. I never talked to Saban and we never made an offer.

e: I guess if you do a little reading between the lines, you could convince yourself that Saban was possibly open to Texas but Steve Patterson killed any chance of it happening by being an rear end in a top hat.

Thermos H Christ fucked around with this message at 23:05 on Sep 30, 2016

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

Raku posted:

or you can read it as jimmy sexton doesn't even need you to actually be pursuing his clients to use you to get them a raise

If they wanted an "offer" to leverage they could probably just get in touch with some of our wealthier, more meddlesome boosters and get them all worked up. "Oh yeah, totally, $8m a year and it's done. Spread the word!"

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
I reckon it's about time for all the "insiders" to start dishing out the latest news on the totally done deal(s) for the services of Tom Herman.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

kayakyakr posted:

I think the thought is that Strong was directly involved with the defense at Louisville, but at UT he's taken more of a "manager" role and Bedford's shown to not be so great.

Which may have been his first mistake, since he was hired to be a nuts-and-bolts, x's-and-o's, hands-on kind of coach after we got tired of a CEO who mostly concerned himself with recruiting players and hiring assistants to handle the day-to-day operations.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

kayakyakr posted:

Except that the UT job requires you be a CEO PR guy just because of the nature of the program.

Does it, though? I feel like we were specifically looking for something different than that when we hired Strong. Like every coach at a major program, the HC at Texas has to do a couple hours of media per week during the season and gladhand with boosters from time to time, but I think that aspect of the job gets really exaggerated. What Texas fans and boosters and donors and administrators really want is a team that kicks rear end and wins football games. You deliver that without any major scandals and everyone is pleased as punch. If you can't deliver that, no amount of charm and polish is going to stave off the inevitable for very long.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
Watch Charlie Strong win like 7-8 games and come within a hair of a co-championship in a terrible B12, followed by a booster uprising that causes him to get fired after a lot of infighting, leading to an epic PR disaster with Texas getting taken to task for being racist and mistreating Strong and having a totally dysfunctional political culture around the program, which in turn causes Herman to decide he doesn't want to step into the middle of that. Followed by a shitshow of a coaching search led by an embattled placeholder AD, culminating in the hire of Lane Kiffin for $10m a year after he initially turns us down.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

LLCoolJD posted:

Bill Cosby approves of Art Briles going to Texas.


Look Charlie Strong didn't know OK all he knew was he had a lot of young men who needed to pull their pants up and knock it off with all that hippin and hoppin who among us would not have done the same

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

Neil Armbong posted:

For one season. A better a&m team lost to a lovely texas team helmed by Case Fuckin' McCoy. And I believe it's the SEC who's kept the teams from meeting in bowl games.

We so would've won in 2014.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
Ok so I'm starting to think Lane Kiffin could be an upgrade

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

General Dog posted:

Seems like hiring Harsin would just be like hiring a poor man's Helfrich. He's another relatively unproven caretaker of somebody else's program.

He and Major were averaging like 35+ points a game with David Ash and Case McCoy. That's pretty impressive.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
Charlie Strong gonna need a 5-game win streak to hang on to the job. Not looking likely. Sucks.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
^^^^^
I doubt it. None of the Longhorn beat writers or even the bullshit rumor peddlers have gone that far, and it seems dubious that some NFL guy in Denver would have the scoop before any of them.

C. Everett Koop posted:

Texas might as well fire Charlie Strong now and hire Herman, just so save us all the months of speculation.

The upside of this would be that my school would have two coaches at the same time and I could watch both of their teams play each week with a sense of having some skin in the game. Unfortunately, both of those teams would continue to be pretty bad, probably even worse than they are now.

It also occurs to me that firing Strong will probably lead to us taking a beating in recruiting, since his pattern has been picking up a few commits here and there before going on an absolute tear at the very end. It won't be a question of whether the next guy can hold the class together, since there won't really be a class to hold together.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

Kim Jong Il posted:

Addazio is probably going to get fired this year at BC.

Someone should look at Babers at Syracuse. They're .500, but what he's done is AMAZING given their horrible roster.

Babers checks a lot of boxes. I'd probably put him on my second tier of realistic choices for the next guy at Texas. Outside of total pipe dreams (Urban, Saban), I've basically got three groups going. People who would win a fuckton of games but are too tainted include Bobby Petrino, Art Briles, Hugh Freeze, and probably Phil Montgomery (if he'd submit to a really serious interview, possibly involving a polygraph, I would consider moving him into another category). First tier of realistic hires includes Justin Fuente, Tom Herman, Larry Fedora, and Chris Petersen if we could get him. Second tier of realistic choices looks something like Gary Patterson, Bryan Harsin, Dino Babers, maybe even Chad Morris.

On some level it seems like we should at least call Chip Kelly, but he supposedly despises dealing with boosters and he's got his own history of shadiness, so I'm crossing him off. I absolutely do not want someone not named Nick Saban who's going to come in here and try to run a pro-style offense, so that means crossing off some other very accomplished people (Fisher, Richt, most everyone from the B1G, etc). If we're gonna play ball control let's do it the Holgo/Morris way.

And for heaven's sake can we please steal Tony Gibson away from WVU to be our DC?

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

TheGreyGhost posted:

Harsin could turn out really well, considering he's shown a crazy amount of offensive flexibility and actually made Boise look pretty good on defense too. There's always danger in taking the caretaker of someone else's program, but he's definitely a solid B-option and has been successful everywhere

He was also an OC at Texas during the late Mack Brown era. He knows what it is to be the coach at Texas better than any other candidate. He's seen it up close. Maybe he's not interested for that very reason, but it really cuts down on the risk of him coming in and being unprepared for the realities of the position.

Then again, he was born and raised in Boise, played QB at Boise State, was a GA at Boise State, was a position coach at Boise State, was a coordinator at Boise State, and now he's the head football coach at Boise State. He might be someone who really loves Boise State. Maybe he doesn't want another job.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

Neil Armbong posted:

My current thoughts are keeping Strong around for another year under the condition that he's cleaning house on D. I think long-term, it's important for Texas to show that a coach will get a legit shot to turn the program around. I don't envy the AD in having to make this choice.

I think the best argument for doing this is that it will allow us to get a long-term AD in place. Someone who actually has experience running a college athletics department, as opposed to a well-liked booster hastily installed by the Prez to shut up the other boosters who were in open revolt against the last AD. Perrin seems like a swell dude and all, but I'm not sure I want him handling our next coaching search. It's not something he has experience with, the baseball coach search was kind of a shitshow, and I think a lot of coaches would hesitate to go to a school with a placeholder AD and no way to know who they'll be working with long-term. There's also an argument that, if the shine continues to come off of Herman, there are no coaches on the market that we simply must have and can't afford to miss out on.

Scionix posted:

what is there left to "clean house" about. Why do you trust the guy to make executive decisions when his coordinator hires were spectacularly bad. Why do you think he would improve the defense when the defense has done nothing but regress. 3 years is plenty of time to show improvement when you're making five million dollars a year.

This is pretty much where I'm at right now. "Cleaning house on D" means firing himself. Which produced great improvement when he did it on offense. Where do we go from here? Do we just keep telling him to stop coaching and hire someone competent do it? What is he here for at that point? That's the terrible, inescapable reality. Everything he touches has pretty much turned to poo poo here.

All that said, I still find it nearly impossible to accept that Charlie Strong just forgot how to coach defense. When he showed up in 2014 he was actually pretty effective at slowing down B12 offenses, at least until our very limited depth would give out. Held Kliff to 13 points in Lubbock, with two shutout quarters. Shut out Gundy for 3 quarters in Stillwater, gave up 7 points total. Held Holgo to 3 points in the first 3 quarters, 16 points total. Shut out Briles' offense for the first half, held them to 21 points total. Gave up one offensive TD to TCU in the first half, shut them out in the third quarter. And that's when TCU's offense was loving terrifying. Eventually the endless turnovers and 3-and-outs by our offense would wear our starters out and the floodgates would open, but still. Maybe with some more depth/maturity/experience on the defense things will improve again? I don't know. I really wish I could say I'm seeing any sign of improvement from defensive players who were here last year.

I think he still has a narrow path to keeping the job, and that path is a 5-0 run to the end of the regular season. I just don't see it happening.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
Hiring an NFL coach to coach at Texas is pretty much a bad idea. And then the John Gruden thing, holy poo poo. I would take Chad Morris over Gruden without a moment's hesitation. Anyway, I don't think hiring away proven coaches who are succeeding at the top level is really a thing, so yeah, I'm fine with hiring a guy on the rise at a lesser place and hoping for the best. I mean sure ask Meyer and Saban if they want Harbaugh money I guess, but after them there's not really a guy I think is right for the gig.

One name that I haven't heard once in all this coaching search talk is Sumlin, and I'm not sure how I'd feel about him, but he can obviously recruit, his whole flashy persona kind of seems like a better cultural fit at Texas than at A&M, and I think someone with his background could be a natural fit in the B12. Plus the tears from next door would be pretty epic, assuming this is the year he doesn't collapse down the stretch. I dunno.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
Hey man I didn't say it was gonna happen, or that Texas fans think it will. I said it's a name I haven't heard once, from anyone. I mostly just thought it was odd that there's a slick flashy CEO coach down the road and it seemingly hasn't crossed anyone's mind that Texas might want to talk to him.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

ChinaBob posted:

Yet your "pipe dream" is Ole' Saint Nick. Interesting.

Yeah he's the one "pro-style" guy I would leap at and it's only because he's Nick Saban. I couldn't bet against Nick Saban succeeding. If I'm choosing between guys we'll never get in a million years, I have to go Urban over Saban just because his style fits so much better with the players coming out of Texas HS football. Then again Saban gets whatever recruits he wants from anywhere so yeah.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

MourningView posted:

Saban isn't really pro style anymore anyway, have you watched Bama this year?. I'm sure he wishes he could be, but after a season or two of throwing a hissy fit and crying about how the rules needed to be changed to get rid of hurry up spread offenses whenever he lost to one he accepted that it was where football was going and adapted.

Yes, and I know his offense has most definitely gotten less cro-magnon, even incorporating tempo and such, but now he's running a more complex, multiple offense. I think the offense we are running now is philosophically about as perfect as you can get for Texas in this day and age. Run it between the tackles, throw quick/screen passes to the sidelines and take deep shots down the sidelines, using tempo to make the ultra-basic offense hard to defend. Definitely I think we should be doing this more manball version that has an emphasis on pushing people around and pounding the rock, but that's still simpler than what Kiffin-era Alabama seems to be doing, to the extent I've paid attention. I mean they occasionally throw to the middle of the field, take snaps under center, or run like a reverse or a sweep or something, right?

I would be a little concerned about this with Harsin as well, but I think he's shown a remarkable ability to tailor an offense to his personnel and make it work, including at Texas. I'm probably also a little traumatized from watching Mack and Strong try to swim against the current, and now that we've finally got the offense we've needed all this time and it's putting up points even with a true freshman QB, I don't want to throw out the baby with the bathwater.

Thermos H Christ fucked around with this message at 15:51 on Oct 28, 2016

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
Sounds like he missed Hawaii. Dallas is a lot of things but it's not overflowing with immense natural beauty and people being real chilled out.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
If Charlie Strong can beat WVU then a TCU team that has looked pretty beatable is all that stands between him and locking down the job for another year (I'm giving him the Kansas win). With 8 regular season wins, an active 5-game win streak, and a chance to keep it going in a bowl game, I think there's no question he stays.

At 7 wins, it might be quite the conundrum. Assuming Louisville beats Houston, is a 9-3 or 8-4 Tom Herman a clear upgrade over a 7-5 Charlie Strong? Are we going to pay $18m in buyouts to fire our whole current staff, on top of whatever it takes to get Herman and a whole new staff in here, just to find out? All I know is, whatever move we make will almost certainly bite us in the rear end in a way that seems completely foreseeable in hindsight. If we pass on Herman, we'll get utterly humiliated in our bowl game and Herman will take some other team to the playoff in his first year while Texas flounders. If we fire Strong to go all-in on Herman, we'll spend another four years wandering in the wilderness with him while Strong spends a year killing it as a DC before landing a HC gig in the ACC or SEC and winning a ton of games there. It is known.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
Baaaaaaaaalllss

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

PrinceRandom posted:

I dunno if I like it but I don't think sumlin survives. With one more loss he's definitely gone

You think he's gonna beat LSU?

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

PrinceRandom posted:

Absolutely not with our run D. But winning that and a bowl will probably keep him. I think.

I think he beats UTSA and loses to LSU, meaning an 8-win regular season capped off with a mediocre bowl game that could take it to 9 wins. I'm not sure what gives A&M the impression that they should be doing much better than that on an annual basis. With the exception of his first season, Sumlin has won 8 or 9 games every year. Seems like his ceiling is probably about 10 or 11 games in a particularly good year, and he probably won't miss out on a bowl game any time soon, even in a down year. You could do a lot worse, and I'm not sure you could do a lot better in the SEC West, at least until a tornado drops a house on Saban.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
Holy poo poo, Vegas is offering +300 odds on Strong being the coach at Texas next year, and Herman is the favorite at -130. That is bonkers. I'm pretty sure that after Mack's departure was announced, Strong was the favorite at +200. People really really think Herman is happening. For the non-betting people, that means:

a) They are paying out 3 to 1 if you bet on Strong to stay and he does.
b) They are paying out less than even money on Herman being the coach in 2017 - as in the oddsmakers/bettors consider it more likely than not that Strong will be fired AND Herman specifically will be hired. Last time around, the field was big enough that every possible coach was paying better than even money even after it was known there would be a new coach.
c) They thought Strong was more likely to be the coach in 2014, before he was hired, than in 2017, even though he currently has the job.

Then again in light of recent events maybe the betting markets are imperfect predictors.

Thermos H Christ fucked around with this message at 18:23 on Nov 16, 2016

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
Also god dammit if we hire Les Miles after finally getting Strong to give in and install the sweet sweet high school gimmick offense I crave, I am going to poop directly on a Regent.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

Mike_V posted:

Who are the good Defensive Coordinators that will be available this offseason?

Yeah... Charlie Strong is definitely going to be on the market.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

Neil Armbong posted:

Bummed. I hope he finds success at his next stop, but I completely understand getting canned for losing to 1-9 Kansas.

1-9 doesn't quite convey the magnitude of this loss. They had lost their last 23 games against FBS teams. Incredibad.

Still it seems the overwhelming sentiment in the Texas fandom right now is (a) Charlie Strong absolutely must be fired, and (b) we mourn the loss of Charlie Strong.

Total class act. Red McCombs aside, Texas fans really like him and we wanted him to be the guy. He is much, much more popular than Mack Brown was at the end. Really hurts to see him go out like this.

Thermos H Christ fucked around with this message at 03:48 on Nov 20, 2016

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

Thoguh posted:

Strong fired per twitter.

Well no poo poo. I mean whether it's officially official or not, it's completely inevitable.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
Charlie Strong is such a nice guy he went ahead and lost to Kansas just so we wouldn't have to agonize over the decision to fire him or deal with accusations of firing him unfairly.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO

pillsburysoldier posted:

Who's the anti-Charlie Strong?

Mike Leach?

Art Briles, obviously.

Also some slightly more reliable rumor mongers are saying Charlie has been officially informed and the announcement may be made tomorrow. No reason to let him twist in the wind and field questions about his future all week. I hope/assume they will let him coach the TCU game.

He needs to get, like, the opposite of Kiffined. You'd think the end of the statistically worst era in Texas football history would be more of a "ding dong the witch is dead" type moment, but it has ended up being much more of an Old Yeller situation.

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Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
Don't act like Strong being black has anything to do with him not getting more time. Anyone would get fired at Texas for having his record over 3 seasons and topping it off with a loss to 2016 Kansas.

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