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Mikey Purp
Sep 30, 2008

I realized it's gotten out of control. I realize I'm out of control.
Are the roster settings the same as last time? They look weird on the site:

Starting Lineup Setup
Total Starters: 10
Number of Starting QBs: 1
Number of Starting RB+WR+TEs: 1
Number of Starting PKs: 1
Number of Starting Defs: 1

Does that mean the other 6 players can be any combination of RB/WR or something?

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Mikey Purp
Sep 30, 2008

I realized it's gotten out of control. I realize I'm out of control.
1.05 David Johnson

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

Frankly I hate the first round RBs but the upside is too drat high.

That about sums it up. David Johnson was a beast towards the last half of 2015 and I'm banking on him maintaining and exceeding that level of production as he becomes more comfortable in his role as the bellcow of a balanced and super productive offense.

Mikey Purp
Sep 30, 2008

I realized it's gotten out of control. I realize I'm out of control.

MrSargent posted:

Not confused with the Watkins pick but your reasoning was interesting. No run game in Buffalo with McCoy, Williams, and Tyrod?

Yeah i came here to say this. I'm not hating on the pick because I think Sammy will kill it this year if he stays healthy, but the Bills led the league in rush attempts last year.

Mikey Purp
Sep 30, 2008

I realized it's gotten out of control. I realize I'm out of control.
2.08 Doug Martin

The Muscle Ham - ahem - Douggernaut has been all over the map in his performances over the past 4 years, but I think that 2013 and 2014 were more the product of injury and coaching turmoil than anything else. Dirk Koetter was the OC of the Bucs last year when Martin finished as RB3, and he's been brought back as the HC this year. That coaching continuity and the continued development of Jameis Winston and Mike Evans (and Our Lord and Savior Charles Sims as a fantastic CoP to spell Martin) should keep Martin producing at a high level. Another interesting stat is that Martin was the only RB to finish in the top 10 last season without double-digit TDs (he had 7). Hopefully those TD numbers come up towards the mean a bit more in 2016, but either way, it's nice to pick up an RB who can provide top 10 value without being TD dependent.

I was also choosing between Devonta Freeman and Lesean McCoy at this spot, but I think that Coleman takes a bigger piece of the ATL backfield than people think and that Freeman is more the guy we saw in weeks 10-16 than the guy in weeks 3-9. Meanwhile Shady has Karlos Williams (who could actually be a better back for the Bills' system) biting at his heels.

Mikey Purp fucked around with this message at 17:28 on Jun 26, 2016

Mikey Purp
Sep 30, 2008

I realized it's gotten out of control. I realize I'm out of control.
03.05 Eddie Lacy

I have a feeling that Eddie Lacy will have a solid bounce-back this season, and while I will probably pay for going RB-RB-RB, I couldn't pass up the chance to have 3 potentially top 10 RBs on my team.

I was also thinking about Forte or Hyde here, but the myriad of uncertainties surrounding the Jets and the Niners scared me off. That, plus the fact that even if everything breaks in their favor, both of those teams play in tougher divisions and are likely to trail a lot of games this year regardless.

Mikey Purp
Sep 30, 2008

I realized it's gotten out of control. I realize I'm out of control.

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

Honestly I wish I had done that. For some reason I just can't get enthused about Cooks or Freeman, regardless of what the numbers say.

Yeah, I know what you mean. I think Cooks will be good this year, but after drafting him on a couple of my teams last year and slogging through his slow start, it's sort of hard to get enthusiastic about taking him at his current ADP. I can't even really explain why I'm down on Freeman except that his meteoric rise last season seemed like such a perfect storm of opportunity that I think it's tough to believe he'll do it again this season.

Mikey Purp
Sep 30, 2008

I realized it's gotten out of control. I realize I'm out of control.
04.08 Julian Edelman

I had to pick a WR eventually, and Edelbro should put out some borderline WR1/2 numbers. Last year he only played 9 games, but in each of those games he was a top 10 WR in PPR. The Pats didn't make a lot of changes on the offensive side of the ball this offseason, so I expect that trend to continue. Obviously Brady's suspension hurts his value a bit, but I don't have to care about that as much because best ball.

Mikey Purp
Sep 30, 2008

I realized it's gotten out of control. I realize I'm out of control.
Maybe it's fate!?

Mikey Purp
Sep 30, 2008

I realized it's gotten out of control. I realize I'm out of control.
Catching up on some picks here:

5.05 - Donte Moncrief
I fully believe that the Colts offense is being really undervalued this year based on recency bias. A healthy Luck and an improved O-line should lead to some sweet fantasy production, and Moncrief should get the volume to have a decently high floor. An added plus is that TY is a nonfactor in the end zone, so Moncrief should be, at a minimum, the number 2 target behind Dwayne Allen. I'm expecting he will be a solid WR2/3 with upside.

6.08 - John Brown
89 pretty much said everything that needed to be said for this pick. While I usually take Matthew Berry's advice with a mine's worth of salt, we've already seen Brown produce well in his second season and the third season is usually a good bet for breakout potential.

7.05 - Corey Coleman
I made this pick while drunk at a wedding, which is pretty much the only circumstance where I'd ever draft a Brown on purpose. That being said, Coleman will be starting from day 1 and is obviously the most talented WR on the roster. Reports are that RGIII looks pretty underwhelming in camp, but that just means tons of sweet, sweet garbage time.

Mikey Purp
Sep 30, 2008

I realized it's gotten out of control. I realize I'm out of control.
8.08 - TJ Yeldon

It's hard to argue with Yeldon as an RB4 in the 8th round. Sure, Ivory can and probably will take over a sizable part of the backfield including goal line duties, but Yeldon is one of the few remaining RBs that is a starter and not an exclusively change of pace 3rd down back. In this format, I'll be happy if he maintains a floor of 7-8 pts per game with an occasional touchdown.

I'm feeling pretty happy with my team at this point in the draft. Zero RB seems to be the go-to draft strategy this season, so I like that I was able to snag some good value by zagging with Zero WR instead. That being said, all three of my RB picks for rounds 1-3 have serious question marks coming in to 2016 due to small sample size (D Johnson) or erratic past performance (D Martin, Lacy). So while this team could be beastly if those risks pay off, there is probably an equal chance that all three of those guys suck and my team swan dives when this stable of WRs can't compete with the rest of the league. That's fantasy!

Mikey Purp
Sep 30, 2008

I realized it's gotten out of control. I realize I'm out of control.
9.05 - Eli Manning

I think Eli has every opportunity to put up a top 5 season this year, but I still think that drafting him in the 9th is too early. The problem at this stage of the draft is that I feel like I would be reaching on a TE and reaching on most of my sleeper picks at WR and RB. So for that reason, Eli it is. If the O-line even sort of shows up this year and Sterling Shepard is Real, then Eli will have a drat fine season in 2016. He's projected to have the easiest schedule in the NFL this year, a potentially great set of receiving weapons, and an offense that should play to his strengths. Not to mention that interceptions don't count against him in this league so yaaaay.

Mikey Purp
Sep 30, 2008

I realized it's gotten out of control. I realize I'm out of control.
Catching up on some picks:

10.08 - Tavon Austin

Tavon Austin is the only real receiving threat on the Rams, and he's been pretty effective out of the backfield as well. I imagine that Fisher will continue to find interesting ways to get him the ball, and he will continue to do some cool things while ultimately being underwhelming and inconsistent as a fantasy asset. Still, in best ball I only need to care about those games where he will catch 5 balls and rush for a TD, so I'm fine with Austin in the 10th round. Also, there is the glimmer of hope that Jared Goff actually creates something resembling a passing attack in LA.

11.05 - Dwayne Allen
Once again I'm all in on the Indianopolis offense and I just can't help it. With Fleener gone, Allen stands to benefit. Luck has thrown something crazy like 33% of his TD passes to TEs, so assuming that the Colts don't acquire anyone else and Allen can stay healthy, he should get a healthy helping of red zone looks.

12.08 - Denver Broncos DST
I felt pretty comfortable with my situation at QB, WR, RB and TE (well not really, but I didn't feel like overpaying for another TE), so I figured it was time to grab a DST. Since I had my pick at any DST, I might as well go with the most dominant in recent history. That being said, there is every chance that the Broncos are "only" a top 5 DST this year. In hindsight, I'm feeling more pumped about the Cardinals and kind of wish I had grabbed them instead. Oh well.

13.05 - Martellus Bennett
Bill Belichick is never predictable, but if there were ever a situation where he was going to revive the 2 TE passing attack, now is the time. Martellus Bennett is the best No. 2 TE the Pats have had since that other guy who is now in jail, and the rest of the receiving corp outside of Julian Edelman and Gronk is dogshit. TE seems to be even more of a crapshoot than usual, but I'm willing to gamble that Bennett breaks into the top 10 at TE.

14.08 - James Starks
Essentially a handcuff in case Eddie Lacy is not a changed man this year. When Lacy struggled last year, they went to Starks early and often.

15.05 - Jay Cutler
I ended up with a QB duo of Eli and Cutler in the last slow draft, and I don't see any reason to let up on that when I can grab Jay in the 15th. These two have relatively complementary schedules, and they are both gunslingers with boom or bust potential. With ints not counting against them in this scoring system, they should both have decent floors and high ceilings.

Mikey Purp
Sep 30, 2008

I realized it's gotten out of control. I realize I'm out of control.
16.08 - Packers DST
There were a few other DSTs on the board which are more highly ranked on paper, but when I looked at their schedules I puked. The Packers have a pretty easy schedule this year and their offense should be clicking again with the return of Jordy and a hopefully improved Lacy. That should translate to longer drives, less opportunity for the opponent's offense, and less time on the field for the Packers D.

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Mikey Purp
Sep 30, 2008

I realized it's gotten out of control. I realize I'm out of control.
Welp, that's that!

16.08 - GB Packers DST
A pretty good DST2, in my opinion. The Packers are never really considered a defense to be feared, but their secondary is pretty beastly and they could outscore the Broncos D on a couple occasions this season.

17.05 - Robert Woods
Sammy Watkins is pretty injury prone, Tyrod Taylor is pretty good, and Robert Woods is the guy who stands to benefit. I'm not expecting much out of Woods even if Watkins misses significant time, but for a 17th round pick he could definitely return some value.

18.08 - Jared Cook
There were probably better TE2's on the board here, but I dunno man, I'm just buying into the Rodgers2Cook phenomenon this year. Richard Rogers has been pretty solid as a TE, but Cook has never played to his potential and athletically he is an absolute freak. Aaron Rodgers may have the key to unlocking Jared Cook's Super-saian form. Probably not, but what the hell?

19.05 - Oakland Raiders DST
The Raiders are going to be a sneaky good DST this year and that front 7 is going to lead to some sack bonanza games, but their schedule is pretty tough.

20.08 - Breshad Perriman
Meh, an accidental auto-pick but I'm not mad at it. I have plenty of WRs on my roster already at this point, but I need to find some upside to make up for my iffy WR1 situation. Breshad Perriman could be that, maybe...?

21.05 - Andre Ellington
This guy can't stay healthy, but he's sort of, kind of in line for snaps if Johnson and Johnson go down. Arians seems to want a bellcow and David Johnson is it, but if he suffers an injury, they may put Ellington out there as a change of pace back.

22.08 - Blaine Gabbert
I think he wins the starting job this year, and I also think that he performs as a decent QB2 in Chip Kelly's offense this year. If I'm wrong, whatever. It sucks that he shares a bye with Eli Manning, but he may still outscore Eli and Jay on some weeks.

23.05 - Matt Prater
I sort of missed the boat on kickers this late in the draft, so I figured I would just draft the guys who have a lock on the starting job in a semi-effective offense. Prater has half of that going for him.

24.08 - Nick Novak
See Round 23 pick.

Overall, I'm pretty happy with how this draft went. I somehow dodged a lot of the negative fantasy news that came out over the course of this draft, and I think I found value on a lot of my picks. I went robust RB on this draft, which is counter to the conventional wisdom for the 2016 season, but I think that it resulted in a pretty good zig to the zag. We'll see what this team ends up looking like in December, though.
code:
Position          Bye
QB:
Eli Manning        9
Jay Cutler         8
Blaine Gabbert     8

RB:
David Johnson      9
Doug Martin        6
Eddie Lacy         4
T.J. Yeldon        5
James Starks       4
Andre Ellington    9

WR:
Julian Edelman     9
Donte Moncrief     10
John Brown         9
Corey Coleman      13
Tavon Austin       8
Robert Woods       10
Breshad Perriman   8

TE: 
Dwayne Allen       10
Martellus Bennett  9
Jared Cook         4

K:
Matt Prater        10
Nick Novak         9

DST:
Broncos            11
Packers            4
Raiders            10

Mikey Purp fucked around with this message at 16:01 on Jul 25, 2016

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