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Luna Was Here posted:How long until the debates start? Is Johnson going to be included? September 26. No, unless Trump tries to skip the debates, then perhaps.
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Aug 1, 2016 08:37
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Luna Was Here posted:I'd say if its a Trump win the 1000 posts a day dont stop till January. If Hillary, they'll stop right after she's elected You mean January 2021?
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Aug 1, 2016 09:35
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No Butt Stuff posted:I spoke with my Dad when he was visiting and he's convinced that Hillary is just as bad as Trump. "Pick the gender of your megalomaniac dictator." Uh, yeah Dad. Okay. "Vote against Trump on top of the ticket and Republican in the bottom. Let a Republican Congress keep her in line." Every vote away from him is still a win.
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Aug 1, 2016 13:39
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Yeah, that's the right move by them. There's nothing left for them to say; if Trump keeps talking about it he just keeps digging himself into a hole; and reporters might even respect their wish and leave them in peace, and if anyone keeps harassing them about it they have the high ground. Besides, they must have already gotten a truckload of death threats. There's also the danger that it devolves into a he said/he said type of thing (even though the Khans are absolutely in the right), if it's ginned up for too long. If it's just Trump tilting at windmills it reflects worse on him ("Why won't he leave those Gold Star parents alone?"). Edit: gently caress, it's already getting there with AP calling it a "feud." It's not a feud, it's a family who lost a son being chain-insulted by a presidential candidate. Sulphagnist fucked around with this message at 14:02 on Aug 1, 2016 |
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Aug 1, 2016 13:59
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Someone should tell these people that it's okay to withdraw your endorsement even if and especially if endorsing in the first place was a monumental gently caress-up. Edit: if someone contacted Reagan with an ouija board (and got the pre-Alzheimer's Reagan) and explained the situation he'd go "The Eleventh Commandment doesn't apply to orange-faced poorly coiffed billionaires who are going to end the party, Jesus Christ." Sulphagnist fucked around with this message at 14:12 on Aug 1, 2016 |
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Aug 1, 2016 14:09
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Mr Hootington posted:We should be getting economic transition teams from both campaigns this week right? Hahahahaha Trump transition team Hahahahahah I mean just the words themselves strung together give me cold sweat but imagine a Trump transition team.
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Aug 1, 2016 15:28
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Sion posted:can someone give me a rundon on this as someone from outside the uk? it has kind of sailed me by. *takes a deep breath* There's this Muslim soldier who immigrated as a kid with his parents to America from Pakistan who rose to the rank of Captain and was killed in action in Iraq in 2004. His parents got upset about Trump and the Muslim ban and called him out publicly in the Democratic National Convention. His dad literally pulled the US Constitution out of his pocket and offered it for Trump to read, it was a very Aaron Sorkin moment and everyone loved it. Trump being as Trump does, went after them and insulted them insinuating the mom was quiet not because of overwhelming emotion but because Muslim men abuse their women (if you think insulting the parents of KIA war heroes in the UK is is bad, it's like triple as bad in the US). It's gotten Trump lots of denunciations and "This is just not okay" reactions and even some Republicans are chiding him for it. Instead of shutting up he stepped into it big time because he has no self-control or has a crazy theory where any publicity is good even if it exposes you as a walking pile of burning garbage. And he and his surrogates have kept stepping on the rake for four days in a row now instead of trying to make it go away like an ordinary campaign would.
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Aug 1, 2016 16:21
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It's a fractal of unforced errors. If you pick at any single part or branch of it you get a whole separate branching out of more errors and fuckups. It's difficult to try to keep it succinct because then you start diving into tangents like how Trump didn't remember that Putin annexed Crimea or how a former Trump staffer has now accused Mr Pocket Constitution (Khizr Khan) of being in the Muslim Brotherhood. That wasn't a fake tweet right?
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Aug 1, 2016 16:25
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Super Librarian posted:This weekend I learned some fascinating new things from two white guys (mid 20s) working a fast food counter! If the Democratic party was this competent at engineering poo poo we wouldn't be contemplating the most painless ways of suicide for if Trump wins. It's like Socialist Obama. At this point I wish the conspiracy theory were true.
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Aug 1, 2016 16:27
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botany posted:newsroom owns I love The West Wing and trying to trick people into watching The Newsroom is just mean-spirited.
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Aug 1, 2016 16:59
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GreyjoyBastard posted:If he was I'd give effectively zero shits. Most MB franchises, especially the ones in the US, are not exactly the boogeyman they're touted as, except insofar as they're not real big fans of Arab dictators. Unfortunately we're dealing with the American voters and media. It's kind of like how Colin Powell's "Obama's not a Muslim but so what if he is?" lesson was entirely lost on everyone.
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Aug 1, 2016 17:31
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ComradeCosmobot posted:Get a Democratic majority in the House. As long as Republicans are in charge there will be no earmarks. And, of course, if the Democrats have a majority you no longer need earmarks to get poo poo done because poo poo'll probably just get done.
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Aug 1, 2016 21:02
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SubponticatePoster posted:Yeah, adding two more morons to the pile is gonna hurt Hillary. If those clowns are given equal time they'll just spend 3/4 of the debate piling on her.
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Aug 1, 2016 21:08
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Spiffster posted:They said that in 2008... We had control and yet we STILL shot ourselves in the foot. More still got done in Congress from 2008-2010 than since 2010-today. Well, government shutdowns and debt crises have been going UP! UP! UP! This theoretical Dem majority would probably be more cohesive than the Blue Dog majority, as well.
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Aug 1, 2016 21:20
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I said I'd count Monday a win for Trump if he can stop stepping on the Khan rake. WELP.
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Aug 2, 2016 06:16
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Luna Was Here posted:Alright, I get the fact that it would be a cool precedent to set that anyone of any sort of gender background along the LGBT wheel can make it in politics in America, but do they really expect a Trans candidate to win in loving Utah?!?!?! The race is a lost cause so might as well get some visibility for trans issues? This sounds a little mercenary but the candidate must have known what they were getting in to.
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Aug 2, 2016 07:01
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greatn posted:What Trump could do for the debates is pull a Mike gravel. Pull out of the debate(Gravel was simply forced out due to low numbers) and live broadcast a counter event(Gravel has to use YouTube after the fact but Trump could afford to buy airtime) and watch the live Hillary interview, pausing and "rebutting" after every answer and make accusations free of moderator review or rebuttal. Actually I'd call this pulling a Perot: 
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Aug 2, 2016 13:24
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emdash posted:
Noteworthy also that Clinton seems to do fine to better without third parties which means that if they shrivel up as they usually do by election day she should be fine. Well she's fine if she's polling over 50 anyway, natch.
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Aug 2, 2016 14:12
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LeeMajors posted:Tbf, this is the first controversy that has even remotely lingered. Curiel. Both controversies involve racism and the victim is inviolable by norm.
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Aug 2, 2016 14:30
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Trump appointing Ivanka to the SCOTUS would actually probably push the SCOTUS more left since she'd be replacing Scalia and she's a young woman who's obviously voted Democrat all her life. The problem is that the Senate has to confirm so Scalia's replacement would be a 28 year old Scalia clone. (Trump winning and the Dems taking the Senate is a virtually impossible combination.)
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Aug 2, 2016 16:50
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Deadly Ham Sandwich posted:What group hasn't Trump attacked? Old white people? John McCain is an old white man?
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Aug 2, 2016 17:21
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This DNC thing to me sounds like a normal reshuffle but the media is desperate for anything negative about the Dems so CNN wants to spin it into a DEMOCRATS IN DISARRAY story.
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Aug 2, 2016 20:06
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Cardboard Box A posted:Holy poo poo the Green Party have an honest to goodness well-produced, modern, slick, and easily-digestible Jill Stein ad running on Morning Joe now. What is going on? The GOP's presidential campaign isn't saturation bombing the airwaves because they have so little money so all kinds of weird poo poo can happen with airtime to fill in the vacuum.
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Aug 3, 2016 12:04
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Ignatius M. Meen posted:I can't see the GOP getting remotely closer to winning the presidential race by dumping Trump at this point. Has this sort of thing even ever happened? Nope. Even the one case where a candidate died it was after the actual election, and he'd lost anyway. (Caveat: some third party shenanigans might have happened, but no one gives a poo poo) Doesn't the national convention determine the rules? Good luck reconvening the delegates and getting anything but scorn and doubling down heaped upon you. The RNC could probably do some poo poo to make it clear Trump has no chance of winning and try to pressure him to drop out, but you can imagine how well that would go. I suspect this talk of replacing him is by people who don't actually understand how you can't do this, because no one's actually ever done it or even tried it. You can be a political operator or a campaign staffer without understanding how the process works in detail (that episode of Veep where they start googling to see what happens if the election's a tie rang very true to me).
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Aug 3, 2016 13:19
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CelestialScribe posted:You do realise that even if one nuclear weapon detonates, it's likely the world will enter nuclear winter, yes? No, unless you detonated it on a Mt Everest made of old tires or something. It would be bad, but it would not be nuclear winter bad. Whether a full on exchange would cause one is itself a hotly debated issue but I think the consensus is that it would not be the detonations themselves as much as the thousands of burning cities spewing particulate that would cause climate change. Edit: If you meant "one detonation leads to a full nuclear exchange which leads to a nuclear winter" then take your time and type the whole sequence.
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Aug 3, 2016 14:16
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CelestialScribe posted:My understanding was that one detonation of a modern nuclear weapon - due to their immense power - would result in such large amounts of radiation it would eventually cover the entire planet. There would be radiation all over the place, sure, but radiation doesn't cause global cooling. A more realistic threat scenario involving one device is a terror attack. The city they target is toast and depending on the geography there will be a moderate to large amount of radioactive fallout, which will be spread by the prevailing winds, but the effect on climate would be at most on the scale of the Icelandic volcano eruption that grounded planes in Europe a few years ago. It will also be a smaller explosion than from an ICBM unless the terrorists got an ICBM, which usually have multiple warheads. One city getting hit would also mean there would be a some sort of effort to eventually control and put out the fire. For global climate effects you need a lot of cities burning out. Still, we don't want nuclear detonations anywhere at any time
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Aug 3, 2016 14:26
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Trump won't pivot so we'll make him pivot! That'll work! Yeah!
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Aug 3, 2016 16:21
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Clinton's probably pretty blase about the email thing because she knows she can get away with it. Either that or she really has a blind spot on it because after Comey's statement a little bit of contrition would've probably been a good move. I mean I know the emails are not significant at all, but on Earth-2 she'd need a way to put it to bed somehow.
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Aug 3, 2016 16:53
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Tibeerius posted:One correction. The Americans who were "ransomed" in this story were not the sailors, they were a Washington Post reporter, a former U.S. Marine, a pastor, and one other person. The general election started last week.
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Aug 3, 2016 17:14
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CommieGIR posted:http://www.thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/brody_levesque/top_republican_party_leadership_working_on_plan_to_replace_trump So this is like the equivalent of standing outside Trump Tower and shouting "BOY HOWDY IT SURE WOULD BE NICE IF MISTER TRUMP JUST DROPPED OUT, HUH?"
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Aug 3, 2016 17:41
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703 posted:Now the base knows what Trump is like, the 30% that are voting for anyone with an R will be happy, and all traditional republicans can come back into the fold. Not even so much about coming back into the fold, just coming back to the loving ballot box. Trump has 80%+ support among Republicans. In fact they seem to love him even more when they learn about the stupid poo poo he says. There won't be a knight in shining armour. At best it'll be some also-ran or has-been who'll take one for the team and get slaughtered just like Trump would. Anyone with any future in the party will stay as far away from this ticket as they possibly can. They didn't want to run for President this time and they sure as hell don't want to run on a ticket with Trump sniping at them and inciting the base against them.
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Aug 3, 2016 17:54
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CommieGIR posted:Its a great couple of lines, sure, but lest we forget the short memories of the GOP voting bloc. Douthat himself will forget that as soon as the Dems keep the WH and take the Senate and Speaker Paul Ryan is the only thing preventing Full Communism.
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Aug 3, 2016 18:12
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:So will last weeks DNC Convention go down as the most impactful of all time? Because it may have actually killed Trumps campaign and possibly the Republican Party as a whole. I'm seeing an easy parallel between this and the 1988 campaign. Popular incumbent, cabinet member running for their third term. Race looks close or winnable by challenger until the convention and then it's just over.
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Aug 3, 2016 20:38
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Teddybear posted:That would be a radical usage. It's pretty much a coup d'etat. They'd have to find something that's impeachable on him so that the 25th can be used to "suspend" him until he can be impeached.
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Aug 3, 2016 21:35
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Kilroy posted:My understanding of how it works is they just continuously poll, throwing out old results and replacing them with new ones. So those polls are always for the last week, or whatever the window is. You're correct. They're great for picking out trends because they do a rolling poll with samples from the last 1-3 days and they always have the same methodology so while there might be a house effect, you can compare the poll to itself. And that's why it's hilarious that even that LA Times/Daybreak poll, which polls 400 people from the same group of 3000 people ever day, is trending hard for Clinton despite having a 4-5 point house effect for Trump. FlamingLiberal posted:Since 1964 Bingo! I trace this all the way back to Goldwater and the white backlash against Civil Rights legislation. Go read the Perlstein trilogy. Nixonland reads disturbingly similar to these days, except the violence isn't as bad, and the white vote just isn't large enough to matter as much as it did in the 60s. Talk radio and the Clinton presidency (i.e. the GOP losing power) can be called the next phase, I suppose.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:06
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theflyingorc posted:Wasn't the Clinton presidency the first time that the Republicans took congress by storm? I thought branch control was very similar under Obama and Clinton. The 1994 conservative sweep was a part of this, yeah. But people care more about the executive. We've twice now seen a huge uptick in white militia group activity whenever a Democrat takes office.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:21
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On Terra Firma posted:I don't think he needs to make another gaffe. This story about his wife and her papers seems to have some traction. Going after family members is best left to the media. Using it in a campaign ad is going to backfire immediately, besides, the Clinton campaign does not want to open up the Bill can of worms on this by firing the first shot. The Dems were very quiet during the plagiarism thing and smartly so.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:39
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Junior G-man posted:Your wish, command etc I love how after the video ends there's links to eight identical spots for swing state Republican senators. 
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Aug 4, 2016 15:48
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UV_Catastrophe posted:My only concern now is Hillary maintaining her support and momentum over the next three months. Trump has basically hit the rock bottom of his support at this point, and there's no sign he'll be digging his way out unless fate intervenes. Dukakis was already behind when the tank thing happened. A lot of these things burn themselves into the imagination and become markers and inflection points, but it's a very hard sell that he would have come back and somehow beat Bush in the polls without the tank ride, of course, it probably didn't help. But looking back at the election, it's easy to point at a certain iconic moment (like, say, a Gold Star father pulling out the Constitution) and say "Yes, that was what sunk him." Even with Trump, the it wasn't even Khan, it wasn't even his response to the Khans - it was the result of a problem built into his very character, if he loses. Similarly, while the swiftboating Kerry took was outrageous and didn't help, it didn't determine the entire election. When I'm saying a fundamental change needs to happen in the race, it needs to be something significant that hits in terms of character or electability and most of all it needs to fit the perception lingering about that candidate in the first place. That's why some kind of corruption-related thing or a cover-up has the most potency. In other words, I think Clinton can make a gaffe or two or even lose a debate without it deciding the election.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:00
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On Terra Firma posted:What? I never mentioned her campaign. It's just what's circulating among a few sites right now. Her campaign doesn't need to do a thing at the moment. Probably misread the context. Never mind!
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Aug 4, 2016 16:19
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