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TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

MonkeyOnFire posted:

Yup, he's still at it this morning. :smugdon:

Meanwhile: John McCain, as you may have guessed, is not happy about Trump's reaction to the Khans:

https://twitter.com/politico/status/760091926188228608

None of this means anything unless you are willing to withdraw your endorsement of the candidate.

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TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Mahoning posted:

I highly doubt that this Khan fiasco is effectively the end of Trump's campaign, but just in case it is, my dick is so hard for the fact that it was a Muslim not born in America that did him in. Thats loving poetic.

I don't think this Khan saga has damaged Trump one bit. The people who don't support him find it appalling, but among his supporters they either view it as a positive, or don't care enough to do anything more than release a boiler-plate condemnation, while still being unswayed in their decision to support him.

If Paul Ryan or McConnell, or even a high profile supporter like Rubio, had "conditionally" withdrawn their support pending an apology to Khan and all Gold Star families, then I'd agree that a blow was inflicted upon the Trump campaign. The only detriment to Trump in all of this is that the clock is starting to rundown and every day spent on his nonsense is a day not spent tearing down Hillary.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

speng31b posted:

This is just silly. It's obviously damaged him. State-level republicans, even here in Texas, are following suit in droves with John McCain-style condemnations. Republicans are beginning to realize how damaging supporting Trump will be for them.

"Donald Trump said a horrible thing that we condemn, but he still has our full support" - we have been seeing that from Paul Ryan for weeks now. Every Republican official at this point probably has a prepared statement to condemn Trump latest bout of sexism, islamophobia, racism/Hispanic, racism/black, racism/Asian, and general ignorance.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

speng31b posted:

Yes, and his own party condemning him, even couched in softened terms or aside equal condemnations of Hillary, damages him. It is damaging him even now. Polls are showing it. Anecdote is showing it. I'm not sure what else you want. You can't say this isn't damaging him.

It hasn't hurt him before and it's not hurting him now. Remember all the stuff that played out with Judge Curiel? Half his party called his statements extremely racist, and he dipped what? 2 points before returning to his low 40s average. The polls now are purely convention bounce and next week we will likely see polls tighten even with no further negative news for Hillary.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

speng31b posted:

That was when primaries were winding down, this is general. But feel free to continue to insist that Trump's ongoing ego-meltdown, aside condemnations from his own party, won't hurt his chances in the general election, despite mounting evidence to the contrary.

Unless Trump does something to trigger mass revocations of endorsements, he is not hurting himself. The people who support him don't care what he says or does. When high profile supporters walk back endorsements and signal to uneasy Trump voters that it's ok to stay home in November, that's when he will have done meaningful damage. None of this matters until Trumps garbage causes him to lose support, and so far none of his controversies have moved the polls by more than 2 points, which is really just noise.

If we get a poll next week showing Trump down by double digits and a huge number of vets/vet families/active military start abandoning Trump, I'll agree with you, but nothing we have seen so far has suggested that will happen. Next week will likely see some of Hillary's convention bounce cool off and polls tighten rather than widen.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

NippleFloss posted:

You understand that he can't actually win the election with just the die hard supporters he currently has right? Like, if his goal is to win the election and he keeps alienating people who aren't currently on board then he is actively hurting his ability to win the election?

Trump has a lot of unwavering support from Republicans who disagree with just about everything he says, but want to defeat Hillary. People thought he alienated too many people to become the Republican nominee, then they said he alienated too many people to be competitive in the general election, but if the election were held last week we would have President Trump.

Previous controversies haven't stuck, and this latest controversy isn't affecting his support any differently than those issues which everyone was certain would be Trump's breaking point.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

NippleFloss posted:

They've all stuck. There is a reason his ceiling has been 44% for basically the whole cycle, and that's because he keeps making it impossible for anyone but his die hard supporters to vote for him. The only time things were close it was because Hillary's numbers tanked. He's not going to win the election with 44% of the vote and he can't get more because he's constantly bogged down in gaffes and scandals.

It's really weird to say "the guy who has been constantly alienating people and coincidentally is also losing in nearly every poll for the entire cycle, and has the lowest favorability rating for a candidate ever, isn't actually hurt by anything!"

Bill Clinton won with 43% of the vote. Trump may have hit a ceiling in the low 40s, but he has held onto that no matter what he said or did. Trump has been within the margin of error in battleground states in almost every poll other than the CBS PA poll today.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Evil Fluffy posted:

You should probably look in to how that was possible and why that isn't going to happen this year.

Every third party combined rarely gets even a fraction of Perot's 1992 numbers. Gary Johnson got less than 1% in 2012.

In the Midwest Gary Johnson is polling at 15%, and Trump has been within the margin of error in those states even before the convention. I don't think we can declare Trump suffering from his latest controversy until we see a genuine sustained movement against him in the polls in those states.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Paradoxish posted:

Cruz is 100% doing the right thing here, I just despise the man and it turns my stomach that he'll end up looking principled as a result of all of this. I'm not actually worried about his chances in 2020 or anything.

Cruz is going to be so smug that he will spontaneously explode.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Josh Lyman posted:

Joe has been anti-Trump since the beginning, so maybe he's revealing this information when it can do the most damage. :tinfoil:

I think he was definitely waiting to reveal this at a time it would do the most damage, and I'm pretty sure Joe is sitting on more stuff ready to drop on Trump at periodic intervals. I think that's true for a lot of anti-Trump people.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Lightning Knight posted:

Personally, I'm just disappointed that Donald Trump isn't quite bad enough to permanently sink Paul Ryan, and that Scott Walker isn't a) up for reelection and b) tanking in the polls for being even vaguely associated with Trump.

Trump has already put a ceiling on Ryan. He is out of presidential races until an EMP wipes out all record of him reaffirming his support for Trump after every horrible thing Trump has said. This is true even if Trump wins in November. Ryan will be speaker of the house until he gets stabbed in the back and then he will become a small no name congressman that gets Trump clips played the minute he opens his mouth.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
If you think about it, the Iranians actually paid us a ransom by giving up four prisoners if we agreed to return the money we took from them.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Trabisnikof posted:

When they lose, Pence can confirm that he got the same insane offer as Kasich and will claim he ran as VP so he could keep Trump from doing anything crazy if elected. Luckily, thus far Pence has set the record on disagreeing with his running mate, so the plan might work.

If Trump loses, Pence will get a sweet Fox-news contributor gig, write a book, and then run in 2020.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Petr posted:

Folks who think Trump is the last gasp of dying party need to put their dicks away and zip up, as much as I'd like it to be true. You know that after this, the Republican party will just limp for a couple of months, then get down to business working themselves up into a frenzy against the CLINTON in the WHITE HOUSE!!!! Then they'll kick our asses again in 2018 because liberals are idiots, and it will be back to business as usual. If Hillary is even a little less teflon than Barack was, they may even have a shot at 2020.

What happens to the GOP all depends on the margin in November. If we don't see a blowout of historic proportions, Trumpism will take over the party and we will likely see the end of the Republican Party as we know it. If there is a massive wipeout for Trump in November, the party elites will succeed in taking back the party and we are back to business as usual.

I also don't rule out a Wikileaks bomb granting Trump the win. The entire world had Hillary 2016 pencilled in as soon as Obama beat McCain, and her stint as SoS was going to be a dry run that would be scrutinized with a fine tooth comb to determine her capacity to be president. Despite knowing that her record would be run under an electron microscope, Hillary ran her state department the way Trump runs his presidential campaign.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

hallebarrysoetoro posted:

The GOP has had it out for Hillary Clinton for over 20 years now, there's a certain amount of fatigue on the attacks against her. Short of an email detailing how Clinton killed Ben Ghazi there's no wikileaks bomb that would actually matter, and I don't even think that would matter.

While the polls for Hillary are strong, I don't think they are strong enough to withstand a definitive quid-pro-quo scandal dropped 10 days before the election. Unless Wikileaks end up having nothing more than Hillary's driver's friends, dry cleaners nephew was a vendor for a company that provided services to another company that is alleged to have bought oil from ISIS, I'd not rule out the possibility of the election being thrown Trump's way.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

theflyingorc posted:

So, this is the first election where I've actually agreed with the radicals saying "the media is favoring one candidate over another", because I think the networks are actually trying to not get Trump elected.

However, the reason for that is he's abandoned all pretense of being a legitimate candidate for president. Say what you will about Romney or McCain, but they had a basic understanding of what the job entailed and, while they weren't great candidates, they were similar to people who have been president before.

It's just so blindingly obvious that Trump shouldn't be president that they're finally coming out and saying it.

Trump stressed the "truth is in the middle" strain of journalism to the breaking point. The only person who didn't seem to get the memo is Erin Burnett at CNN, who is still desperately clinging to that both sides are providing equally valid arguments. She is by far the worst person on the CNN payroll, and that includes the Trumpkins like Jeff Shitlord and Kayleigh whatshername. Wolf Blizter and Don Lemon look like Walter Cronkite in comparison to Burnett (who used to be relatively decent at CNBC).

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TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
I wouldn't be surprised if this whole FBI notes situation was setup with the intention of creating a counter-story to Republicans who try to drag up the emails.

Hillary was careless with classified information? I guess you could make that argument - oh wait, you can't because you intentionally leaked classified information for political gain.

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