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Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

mcmagic posted:

So does the NY Post and other Murdoch properties hate Trump now that Ailes is gone?


This is pretty distasteful heh.

Aviles never had anything to do with the Post. It's a straight scandal rag, and while it leans right, never passes up an opportunity for a scintillating front page.

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Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

I understand Utah but what's going on with Georgia? Does Atlanta's population really swing the whole state that hard?

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Pakled posted:

Unfortunately, no amount of Trump hate is going to convince Utah to elect the first trans person to be nominated to run for the US Senate by a major party.

Still 37-51 for a transperson in loving Utah is pretty encouraging. Hopefully see some moves in states that aren't a lost cause.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Pakled posted:

I vaguely remember reading something about Trump's campaign spending an inordinate amount of money in places like New York and California but now I can't find any source on that and I'm wondering if that was just speculation about something he'd stupidly do.

If I recall it was Trump himself claiming the NY and CA were part of his plan to win. It looks like his campaign going to go the traditional route of advertising in battleground states.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Triskelli posted:

So supposing Trump decides to step down at this point or actually kills himself staying up all night responding to Twitter. What happens to his spot as the Presidential candidate? Does Pence step up?


Executive committee of the party chooses a new candidate.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Is this the first year the general election started before the Olympics? Going to be weird seeing the candidates try to pry attention away from that.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Luna Was Here posted:

i mean i dont think people really want to think about the shitshow that will be rio 2016
honestly it wouldn't surprise me if more people started to tune into The International rather than the Olympics this year

Disagree. Not that it won't be a poo poo show cause it will, but the media mostly going to be running positive patriotic stories like Simone Biles crushing the dreams of lesser women.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

edrith posted:

please let donald trump blacklist the new york times. please let him bar the last relevant american newspaper not in part owned by murdoch from his events. please let this happen. they already hate him, and i want to see what it'd be like for them to go all the way in on their disgust. please, donald. please revoke the new york times' access to your events. you know you want to.

Once the NYT is banned it's pretty much just USA Today and WSJ for major national newspapers right?

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

greatn posted:

What Trump could do for the debates is pull a Mike gravel. Pull out of the debate(Gravel was simply forced out due to low numbers) and live broadcast a counter event(Gravel has to use YouTube after the fact but Trump could afford to buy airtime) and watch the live Hillary interview, pausing and "rebutting" after every answer and make accusations free of moderator review or rebuttal.

He could, but it would be a terrible idea. So maybe.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Stultus Maximus posted:

No, nobody expects her to have any chance. She's
- a trans woman
- with no political experience
- who is 30 years old
- running for US Senate
- as a first ever run
- against an incumbent
- in Utah.

She was nominated because the other person running in the primary was a right-wing Democrat so if you're going to lose anyway, why not make a statement instead of just fizzling out?

And yet with all that, the latest polls show her closer (37-51) than the last Democrat who ran against Mike Lee(32-61). Of course she's still losing badly, and the gap can widen between now and November, but I think it's okay to be a little optimistic about he DOA run.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

iospace posted:

Odds on Trump trying to say something outrageous to steal the spotlight from the Olympics?

My money on some dogwhistle remark about our women's gymnastics team. He already hit the vets and firefighters, lets attack another American sacred cow.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

I think the Green Party can pull of a full 1% this term, and Johnson at best 3%. It may swing Utah but other than that they won't be spoilers.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

waitwhatno posted:

Eurogoon here, how the gently caress is Trump polling at ~40%? How is ~40% of your voting population ready to elect that clown?

Seriously, I stopped even trying to explain to old people how this is possible. At first I tried to do all the "everyone is fed up with the establishment" and "dog whistle racism" spiel, but after the last couple of weeks, I don't even know what the gently caress is going on anymore myself. All he is saying is that he is great and will be the best at everything, over and over again, that's literally his entire program. He is not even conning people, he just outright behaves like a small child, openly.

Our politics are so polarized towards the two parties that is virtually impossible to dip below 43%. Trump has achieved the impossible in that regard.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

zoux posted:

That UT poll was fake
https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/760476026052997120

Where fake polls come from, i dont knw

Ah boo. I was tickled by the only early poll done in Utah back in March that showed Clinton ahead. Still funny that Trump isn't up by double digits in the safest of red states.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Noam Chomsky posted:

This is what happens when you move all the low-skill jobs to other countries, and the remaining jobs pay poo poo, and a financial collapse wipes out even more jobs. Trump is a symptom of a huge contingent of whites who feel they have no futures so the plan is to steal the futures of others. They don't have the education necessary to see that they're just now part of the same class struggle most minorities have been a part of forever.

If you're surprised by Trump I'm not sure what to tell you. I remember arguing with people on the internet in 2007, on another forum, about the financial collapse leading towards creeping fascism. Many posters felt that job retraining would take care of everything and it'll all be OK. Too bougie blind to see that there just aren't many well paying, low skill jobs anymore and there will be fewer as time goes on.

TL;DR - If people can't build a life for themselves, they'll just try to burn it all down.

Okay but this doesn't explain the rest of our 200+ years of naked racism. Maybe it's just the racism and not a class issue after all.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Pakled posted:

It's both. The world is complicated.

Elements of both yes, but let's not pretend they're in equal measure. Race devide has been a part of our country since its founding. The 3/5 compromise didn't come from global trade but the view that black people were lesser. We didn't fight the bloodiest conflict (up until that point) in human history over tariffs, as some claim, but the recognition of black people as people and not property.

This isn't some sudden revaluation of the downfalls of neo-liberalism, this is the end result of 240 years of American racism.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.


As the son of a 9/11 emergency worker

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Goatman Sacks posted:

If not for asbestos, what made the 9/11 wreckage so horribly unhealthy? Just all the atomized fiberglass insulation and stuff?

All matter of toxic stuff. Even in a normal fire you can expect a certain amount of cyanide poisoning and carbon monoxide toxicity. But we're talking about two separate 100 story buildings.

We probably won't know the full extend of the damage done to emergency workers for decades. Hence my dad and many of my friends have to go through a city evaluation for every health problem they have.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Cimber posted:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/ has it at Clinton:273, Trump:218 with 47 ties. Too loving close for comfort.

Winning with 47 electoral votes still on the board is too close for comfort? Looks like a great map to me. Also Trumps not winning NH or VA, and I'm still skeptical of Hillary winning AZ.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Mel Mudkiper posted:

What is the precedent for a candidate coming back from this bad of a slump with 100 days to go?

It's happened before

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

citybeatnik posted:

Am i right in thinking that a lot of the stuff that's showing up in my newsfeed re Johnson polling at 15% (from sites like RedState and the like) is more about keeping the horse-race narrative alive or is this actually something i should be paying attention to?

I mean, i don't know. Libertarianism stuff always seems to me to suffer from the "five minutes and one second" rule that Charlie Pierce jokes about, where they're up there making sense for exactly five minutes but the moment they go over that they veer in to batshit territory.


What sort of articles are you looking for, exactly?

Johnson's polling between 4-6% nationally. The only place I'm aware of that's he's polling 15% is Utah.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Seeric posted:

I specified the first debate because I figured it would be similar to the DNC where they were caught a bit off guard the first time people acted up, but they took measures against it after that. I guess I should have clarified that as "the first debate in front of a live audience consisting of supporters of both candidates". I didn't mean to imply that I thought the first debate would hold any sort of special significance in and of itself over later ones.

From what I'm reading Hofstra is spending $700,000 on security, and they're a private campus who can rest it who is on the grounds. I'm sure some rowdy folk will sneak through but I don't expect bedlam.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

My mom was a lifelong single issue(pro-life) Republican voter up until 2008. She was nearly in tears one morning at the prospect of Trump becoming president. The idea that a classy man like Obama could be replaced by some rude as hell fear monger scared her more than any actual positions. I suspect a lot of low information voters are getting that feeling, they just want to feel good about the future, not crippling fear.

The rest of my family falls into the old "you're Irish, you're catholic, and you vote democrat" mode.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

That and the media has hated Trump for at least 20, if not 30 years. The dude's been a villain of the media for longer than Hillary, showing up as a bad guy in Bloom County, Back to the Future II, and Sesame Street. This as as close to a good vs. evil narrative that the media can ever pull off for a US presidential election and they are going to milk it.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Crabtree posted:

Oh they loving can, the question is if the media has the balls to step away from their Truth is In the Middle bubble to take that initiative. And I'm afraid I have no faith in them doing it. It's too dangerous to go after and say an active republican candidate is a failure because that means Republicanism failed by picking a giant loving failure. And that's too great of a sacrifice for RWM, CNN, or most of this country to publicly make.

Unless the paint Trump as antithetical and hostile to mainstream republicans which is exactly the narrative that's been going on today.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Crabtree posted:

I doubt it will stick in the reptile brain of the public as that is again saying Republicanism did something bad or erred in even the slightest sense of Trump. You're trying to question outright faith for some people and I don't have any that they'll see the light nor really care to change and pull R anyway because Operant Conditioning.

No I think we're in agreement. The media is painting the failure of Trump as separate from the Republican Party. The media narrative is that Trump is so far out the mainstream that this is an example of failing conservatism rather than conservatism failing. Way, rinse, repeat for Cruz in 2020.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

theflyingorc posted:

There's a theory that it was at that very dinner that "candidate Trump" was born.

Which would have previously horrified me, but considering how bad he's tanking I'm OK with.



Let's not forget interrupting Celebrity Apprentice to announce the death of Bin Laden.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Gyges posted:

poo poo no. I fully expect Trump jr to run for something and for it to turn out he funneling the money from years of continuously billing people's cards into his campaign.

There's been rumors one of his sons is going to run for mayor, so there's that.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Kilroy posted:

So is the media actually trying to push a horse race narrative now? I kinda thought that was done once Trump starting calling for actual violence against journalists.

The only dumb thing Trump said this week would involve the media having an honest conversation about race, so they're just going back to the horse race until he gives them something to work with.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Dexo posted:

https://twitter.com/djolder/status/767929306886602753



I'm so happy that a political party is finally courting my vote. The really and truly care about me and my brethren.

A man who lives in a city that's 25% black and flees there every night.

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Ogmius815 posted:

I'm Arzying pretty hard about those Ipsos polls of Maine and Wisconsin.

Odd direction for Chuck Tingle to take but okay

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Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

Is there any truth to the rumors that G. Dubs fell off the wagon?

He seemed a little tipsy at his last press conference but I don't think it was ever confirmed.

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