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Eifert Posting posted:The biggest surprise for me is how small the sample size is for some of these polls. I thought a small poll was about 10k, not 100. A small poll is usually somewhere under 1,000. Even just with a sample size of 500 you're down to 4% MOE. Going all the way up to 1,000 people gets you a 3% MOE which is pretty standard. Reuters' statewide numbers are weird because they're doing a huge national poll of thousands of people but then also publishing the results state-by-state. So if their nationwide poll had 100 people from Nebraska, they publish those 100 people as if it were a separate poll which is why you end up with wacky results and 10% MOEs.
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Sep 1, 2016 13:40
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Rhesus Pieces posted:Speaking of, here's yet another article on how shameless NC Republicans are about preventing "democrats who just happen to be black" from voting: I love the logic that discriminating against Black and Hispanic people based on their race, using data compiled about their race and targeting their race using that data, is not racist because those categories of people tend to vote for the Democrats. I wonder what would happen if there was a black-majority state that targeted white people for voter suppression and then justified it by saying "hey, if white people didn't want to be voter suppressed, they shouldn't have been so Republican". I wonder how that would play out.
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Sep 3, 2016 14:01
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theflyingorc posted:I fully agree with this. Conversely, this is also true of the right. They've spent so long describing even the most milquetoast centrist Democrats as the reincarnation of Karl Marx and Joseph Stalin's lovechild that when an actual leftist comes along (like Sanders, for example) they don't have the vocabulary to describe how such a person differs from the insane leftist radical image they've created of every generic Democrat.
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Sep 3, 2016 17:55
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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/03/breakthrough-us-china-agree-ratify-paris-climate-change-deal The US and China have agreed to ratify the Paris Climate Agreement. Maybe we can get a DTrump speech where he rails against the concept of the environment to remind young people why they need to vote for Clinton.
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Sep 3, 2016 18:04
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This is the same guy who thinks Starbucks puts gay semen in their lattes for some unknown purpose, I'm sure he'd be very welcoming to Trump if his church hadn't been repossessed and turned into a shelter for homeless gay youth. e: 
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Sep 3, 2016 18:06
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readingatwork posted:"Globalism" was me loving up the word "Globalization" so maybe other people are doing the same thing? Both are likely referring to the same ideological mindset of "more open trade + fewer restrictions = better" It's an understandable slip-up but you should also realize that nowadays the most common use of "Globalism" is by the alt-right as a scare word meaning "people/an ideology that wants to bring immigrants into America in order to dilute white culture, and also wants to erode white economic power by giving away our economy to foreigners, all in service of a mysterious international cabal [of totally not Jews we're not Nazis we promise]." Basically the most reductionist view of globalization and immigration possible, framed in the most white nationalist terms possible. So the globalization/globalism slip-up is not really one you want to be making.
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Sep 3, 2016 20:29
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When Hillary Clinton fought for universal health care in the 1990s it was really just a covert plan to enact globalism in service of wealthy donors, rather than a principled attempt to enact an unpopular policy beneficial for all Americans.
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Sep 3, 2016 20:32
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Evil Fluffy posted:The fun thing with this map is that VA is next to impossible for Trump to win. It was trending towards Clinton already and Tim Kaine is going to easily give her another 1-2 points there. The odds she doesn't take OH or FL (or both) is lower than Trump winning North Carolina at this point. Also going back five elections doesn't reflect the new reality that states like Colorado and New Mexico are pretty much Dem locks by this point, to the degree that they barely even get polled because polls show Clinton up by ~10 points. Take that map, put Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico in the blue pile, and Clinton has already won without even needing any of the real swing states.
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Sep 4, 2016 04:45
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iospace posted:Here's my question: One candidate openly insults the press, the other ignores them, but doesn't insult them. There is a long-running feud between Hillary Clinton and the media that leads to both sides treating the other like garbage. The only real difference is that Hillary is right because the media actually is garbage. http://www.vox.com/2015/7/6/8900143/hillary-clinton-reporting-rules
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Sep 4, 2016 14:37
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lmao the Guardian has an article exploring how Trump is causing wider divisions in voting intention among married people than ever before, and includes gems like this:quote:“Between married men and married women, there is a record gender gap right now,” said Celinda Lake, head of the Democratic polling firm Lake Research Partners. Married women, a group won by the Republican Mitt Romney in 2012, are currently supporting Clinton by about 12 points, Lake said. quote:Lake believes many couples try to excise politics from their relationships, and not just in the heated final months of the 2016 race. Several years ago, her firm conducted a survey in which 72% of men but only 49% of women said with confidence that their partners would vote the same way they did. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/04/donald-trump-support-marriage-ipsos-poll
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Sep 4, 2016 14:54
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:I wonder how many married women feel compelled to say they support Trump when they do a phone poll since people might be listening but privately in the voting booth they're gonna vote Clinton. I think most phone polls are automated robocalls where you push buttons to register support so even that's pretty private unless your husband is listening to the call on speakerphone and watching which button you push.
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Sep 4, 2016 15:03
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The other big thing I can see forcing a Republican realignment is if a permanent Democratic White House is able to completely remake the Supreme Court in a liberal image.
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Sep 4, 2016 20:02
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Like say Hillary wins, the Dems retake the Senate, and they get rid of the filibuster. Sure they can't pass legislation through the House, but they can confirm justices like there's no tomorrow. They proceed to fill the entire backlog of judicial appointments to lower courts with liberals. RBG retires, Breyer retires, Kennedy retires, Thomas retires, Hillary appoints five liberal Supreme Court justices, and liberals enjoy a 7-2 majority on the Supreme Court for the next two decades. Republicans retake the Senate in 2018 but the damage is already done.
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Sep 4, 2016 20:07
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CelestialScribe posted:Jesus Christ no. I'm saying denying Trump lead in these states is akin to believing in poll unskewing or whatever bullshit conservatives are spouting. There's a reason we make judgements based on polling averages rather than single polls. For example, take Michigan:  For whatever reason, Ipsos's methodology has them consistently showing a narrow Trump lead, whereas every other pollster has Clinton comfortably ahead. Does this mean Ipsos is wrong? Maybe. Does it mean every other pollster is wrong and Ipsos is right? Maybe. Does it mean they're all wrong? Maybe. But statistically speaking it's far more likely that the combined weight of the non-Ipsos polls is correct than that the one outlier is correct.
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Sep 5, 2016 00:46
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WampaLord posted:I think part of it is that Trump picked a fight with the motherfucking Pope. Also that a large and growing proportion of American Catholics are Hispanic.
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Sep 5, 2016 15:40
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Boon posted:That poo poo pisses me off. I also take umbrage with the adoration on memorial day. Memorial Day is at least a holiday explicitly designed to honour the military. This is the equivalent of a "Happy Thanksgiving everyone, be sure to especially thank the brave men and women who defend your freedom to overeat" tweet.
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Sep 5, 2016 18:48
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sarmhan posted:I want a pool party with Obama. Once a year Obama should have had a lottery where one lucky family gets to come to a White House pool party.
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Sep 5, 2016 22:08
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ComradeCosmobot posted:Wrap it up Hillarailures. Even NBC is starting to take the coughing thing seriously. RIP Hillary 1947-2016 Anybody who hasn't yet should watch this video if only for excited Tim Kaine in the background.
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Sep 6, 2016 00:24
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:I really feel the candidate proposing a massive new entitlement program granting everyone free college, massive increases in immigration, tough new environmental regulations, a continued effort to normalize relations with Cuba and Iran, and continued growth of the welfare state is, at best, a "centrist" ~ An Idiot. Yeah but see because she's a corrupt centrist then by definition that can't be her actual platform. So she's saying all that stuff just to get progressives onside but in office she'll just be all centrist-y. Seriously, Clinton could spend eight years as president and implement Full Communism Now and on her deathbed there would still be people claiming she was a centrist (or the dreaded "Republican-lite") the whole time and only did all that Marxist stuff as a ruse. Anyway, the NYT laments that the American electorate is just so dumb: quote:If Trump supporters knew that illegal immigration peaked in 2007, or that violent crime has been on a steady downward spiral nationwide for more than 20 years, they would scoff when Trump says Mexican rapists are surging across the border and crime is out of control. lmao if only there were some respected news outlet that we could point to as participating in this dumbing down as an example, maybe one that had been touting this horserace bullshit instead of calling out the worst presidential candidate in modern history on his many, many, many faults..... oh well, can't think of one off the top of my head
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Sep 7, 2016 18:57
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Deified Data posted:I'll never arzy about the results of the election, but while I used to be pretty sure that the worst case scenario for the debates was Trump not showing up and being vindicated by his followers for resisting mainstream convention, my new worst (and most likely) scenario is that he shows up and curbstomps Clinton just by being Trump. I can no longer see any scenario where Clinton "wins" the debates the same way Obama did, save Trump descending into a slavering, stuttering mess or outright vomiting on stage. I think they would say she won if she goaded Trump into trying to physically attack her, then judo-flipped him.
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Sep 7, 2016 18:58
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This town hall is just going to be loving emails emails emails, christ
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Sep 8, 2016 01:10
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Hillary I don't think the best response to a "progressive" asking you about your hawkishness is "well there's no difference between me and Trump on hawkishness"
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Sep 8, 2016 01:16
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lmao Matt Lauer after she says she likes the Iran deal: "do you think they're playing us?" what a hack
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Sep 8, 2016 01:19
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lmao trump just blatantly lying and Lauer dgaf
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Sep 8, 2016 01:33
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sometimes i regret things but i won the republican primary so what can you do about it fuckos
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Sep 8, 2016 01:34
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trump says his mexico thing, lauer doesn't bring up his hitler speech from later the same day
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Sep 8, 2016 01:35
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of loving course trump's idols are patton the guy who slapped a soldier for having ptsd and macarthur the guy who wanted to nuke china
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Sep 8, 2016 01:36
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hahahahaha his answer to solving iraq and syria's problems so a new isis doesn't emerge is "take the oil" 
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Sep 8, 2016 01:38
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anti-iraq war protestors: NO BLOOD FOR OIL trump: im against the iraq war but on the other hand gently caress YEAH BLOOD FOR OIL
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Sep 8, 2016 01:39
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trump's plan is to fire all the generals, promote some randos, and ask them for a plan
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Sep 8, 2016 01:40
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service guarantees citizenship
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Sep 8, 2016 01:43
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trump tell us more about your very very good relationship with putin
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Sep 8, 2016 01:44
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lmao trump claiming putin has an 82% approval rating therefore he's great all he cares about is ratings
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Sep 8, 2016 01:46
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hell yeah once putin gets a russian plant in the white house he'll change his mind on a few things
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Sep 8, 2016 01:47
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i have a great plan the problem is the wait times hillary clinton is bad hillary clinton lies about me by the way people are dying waiting to see a doctor under my plan the va will have full socialized medicare
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Sep 8, 2016 01:49
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Reminder that Trump is underperforming Romney with vets. well yeah he just went into a room full of old military vets and slobbered all over Putin's cock
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Sep 8, 2016 01:50
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last question: i have great respect for the va, what a great institution this question: the va is complete garbage and should be destroyed
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Sep 8, 2016 01:51
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my plan to stop sexual assault in the military is to stop sexual assault in the military
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Sep 8, 2016 01:51
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lmao lmao lmao trump stood by that tweet holy loving poo poo
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Sep 8, 2016 01:52
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Majorian posted:I can't watch it right now, but when I do later I'm just going to mute it whenever Lauer opens his mouth. you should watch the bit where he reads trump's "men are inherently rapists so lol military sexual assault who gives a gently caress" tweet and trump says "yeah that's pretty much right, i stand by it"
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Sep 8, 2016 01:53
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