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Nate Silver tends to be pretty cautious in his projections and sometimes leans towards arzying.
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Sep 1, 2016 15:31
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The Puppet Master posted:does that mean that morning djs have the greatest sway over the nation? "As a matter of fact I am having a good commute today! Thank you for asking." and then they go vote for the morning guy in the presidential general
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Sep 1, 2016 19:17
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ComradeCosmobot posted:So it turns out that if you've ever clicked through that "Non Disclosure Agreement" so you can volunteer for Trump, you've agreed to never say a bad word about Trump, any member of his family, his businesses or his family's businesses for the rest of your life. what EDIT: 
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Sep 2, 2016 16:36
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So with all this "The lead is closing!  " talk, anybody pointing out that Trump's not really picking up any votes for himself?
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Sep 2, 2016 17:26
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zoux posted:FBI released its report: doesn't that literally mean nothing because accessing a server is completely different from storing information on a device
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Sep 2, 2016 19:29
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:It doesn't mean LITERALLY nothing, because having downloaded data to so many devices and not kept track of them when they were disposed of means that data could be theoretically accessible. More devices means more opportunities to make a mistake. In practice, nothing happened though. oh okay then I'm glad that the possibility of something maybe possibly being at risk at happening at one point or another is treated as a bigger deal than the severe acts of fraud and corruption that Trump has engaged in that are well-documented and easily observable.
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Sep 2, 2016 19:36
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:1) I don't think anyone is arguing that the email server is worse than anything Trump did. Hahahaha
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Sep 2, 2016 19:46
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Instant Sunrise posted:i ended up re-reading those articles about how much of a shitshow romney's it infrastructure was back in 2012. how much worse do you think trump's is gonna be? look to your left look to your right do you see any Trump infrastructure? good, now imagine the same thing except with the vast majority of the united states
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Sep 3, 2016 00:32
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Eiba posted:It feels like CelestialScribe's persistent hyperbole has gotten this thread to entrench against recognizing any sort of shift in the polls. a) Trump's numbers aren't actually going up at all b) This kind of dry spell for her has been happening on a regular basis and is usually associated with Trump running around showboating while Clinton does actual unglamourous campaign work and the media just twiddles their thumbs and talks about e-mails c) She's still winning by a good margin d) it's not really that significant of a drop e) The debates are later this month f) Clinton having maintained a healthy lead all the way through August bodes extremely well for the election g) horse race narrative (the GOP post-mortum for this election will be quite the read) etc etc etc
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Sep 3, 2016 01:16
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fool_of_sound posted:I really like the NYT paths to victory graphic at the bottom here. It's a really good demonstration of exactly why it is so insanely difficult for Donald Trump to take the white house. he would pretty much have to win every competitive state and/or flip a buttload of currently solid blue states. Crowsbeak posted:I would disagree, Arzying is saying Trump is going to win. Suggesting Hillary pick up her game because we want her to win big, especially as that's whats needed to take the senate so she can actually get the cabinet she wants, get the ambassadors she wants, and ensure the Judiciary is largely democratic, in important. It's September 2nd. Of course Hillary is gonna pick up her campaign. She's the one who's actually been preparing over the summer. Trump could afford to be aggressive on TV in August because he hasn't been doing anything else of value for his campaign. Augus fucked around with this message at 01:27 on Sep 3, 2016 |
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Sep 3, 2016 01:23
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zonohedron posted:Okay, here's 2012 "very close" - any state decided by less than 5% set to undecided - and then all the 'undecided' states to Trump, plus WI because the headlines at the bottom of the page say it's close, minus VA for Clinton. Clinton still wins. I too find this a bit confusing, how exactly does Trump barely having any path to victory translate to a 70% chance of Clinton winning? TheBigAristotle posted:I wonder how his behavior in previous debates will come through one-on-one. With a quiet audience, I'm hoping his complete madness comes through. Or at the very least, his extreme ignorance of pretty much every aspect of what it takes to be President. The first debate is gonna be at Hofstra University in New York. Somehow I doubt that the audience there will be on his side. I can't even imagine Trump speaking publicly without people cheering at every word he says. Could he even function like that? Augus fucked around with this message at 01:43 on Sep 3, 2016 |
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Sep 3, 2016 01:40
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Rotten Red Rod posted:https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/771858220864434181 He's got the Pat Bateman vote in the bag.
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Sep 3, 2016 02:38
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Rhesus Pieces posted:https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/771813931421687808 Man, is there anything Trump has accused Clinton of that he himself isn't guilty of anymore? Rhesus Pieces posted:Speaking of, here's yet another article on how shameless NC Republicans are about preventing "democrats who just happen to be black" from voting:
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Sep 3, 2016 16:11
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FactsAreUseless posted:Isn't this literally every conservative argument in favor of hating trans people, "race realism," being anti-PC, etc? The response I've seen as to why government regulation of who can go into bathrooms doesn't fly in the face of the idea of small government is "It's not our fault we need to enforce what used to be common sense!" Because I guess Caitlyn Jenner was the first transgender person in history or something. Shimrra Jamaane posted:Where did they find a black church that would actually allow Trump to spout his hateful bullshit in?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vgZaQrddSE
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Sep 3, 2016 17:59
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vyelkin posted:This is the same guy who thinks Starbucks puts gay semen in their lattes for some unknown purpose, I'm sure he'd be very welcoming to Trump if his church hadn't been repossessed and turned into a shelter for homeless gay youth. I didn't know he said that thing about Obama and Putin, that's freaking hilarious Fluffdaddy posted:All black pastors have been selling out black people for years I wouldn't quite go that far but the doctrine of "don't use birth control, don't get abortions, carry every child to term and care for them yourselves" really doesn't really mix well with "people in poverty really shouldn't be having a dozen children that they can't afford to care for" Augus fucked around with this message at 18:17 on Sep 3, 2016 |
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Sep 3, 2016 18:13
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iospace posted:http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/09/14-excerpts-fbis-report-hillary-clintons-email it's official: Hillary Clinton is old. Pack it up everyone! We've cracked the case!
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Sep 3, 2016 18:48
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who needs an oppo file when you can literally just grill him on everything from the past month.
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Sep 4, 2016 03:16
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Ice Phisherman posted:Why justify anything? They can but it would be political suicide. The year of blocking a justice is sure as poo poo gonna come up again before November and it hurts Republican electability pretty badly. Stretching that to another couple years would be incredibly stupid. It fuels the "Republicans are the obstructionist party" angle.
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Sep 4, 2016 18:31
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memy posted:THE POLLS
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Sep 8, 2016 01:48
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my head hurts
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Sep 8, 2016 01:54
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He also said that mere moments after saying that Putin's compliments won't affect his judgement, lol
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Sep 8, 2016 02:01
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Stultus Maximus posted:https://twitter.com/bustipsover/status/773684356628045824?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw drat, son.
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Sep 8, 2016 02:03
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:This speaks VOLUMES to how the debates will go. Trump handled everything so poorly tonight due to having to be off the cuff. It's exactly what we all expected. Hillary will crush him since she will not allow him to pivot to MAGA like he has tourettes. And in the debates he'll have to take turns with Hillary. As in, Hillary will be directly responding to him instead of just going one then another. It won't be pretty.
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Sep 8, 2016 02:24
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Trump talking about firing generals and felating Putin and all that...in front of an audience of military veterans. Really doesn't have a mind for context huh. You know, unless that context is "in front of a crowd of Trump supporters" CelestialScribe posted:Most people don't think too much about the election. They go by feeling. 
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Sep 8, 2016 02:30
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After well over a decade of people criticizing the idea of the government going to war for oil, Trump directly endorsing the idea of using war to get oil is a pretty spectacular brand of idiocy.
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Sep 8, 2016 02:50
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literally, they think Obama is scarier than Putin because he's black there you go
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Sep 8, 2016 06:19
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I think more dangerous than Trump himself as president is what sort of interests he would invite into our government. He's already shown an eager willingness to ally himself with anybody who sucks up enough, defending Putin on national TV and making Breitbart a political player just because they always have positive headlines about him. If he were elected, there's no doubt he would surround himself with dangerously corrupt yes-men.
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Sep 8, 2016 14:53
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The news media bending over backwards to appear even-handed towards Mr Trump is a fool's errand because unless they go full-on Breitbart he's always going to be pissy that they didn't go easy enough on them. Also quick reminder that Trump was all but threatening journalists with physical violence unless they stopped being so "mean and biased" against him.
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Sep 8, 2016 15:13
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At this point it's just par for the course really
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Sep 8, 2016 20:59
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Wraith of J.O.I. posted:Video of this is even better; god drat he is such a weasel. We talking figuratively or literally here? Because 
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Sep 9, 2016 05:07
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I thought our military brass had "turned to rubble" or something?
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Sep 9, 2016 13:40
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"this loving election" is what I now have scrawled in blood over and over again all over the walls in my bathroom
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Sep 9, 2016 21:15
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is it loving november yet jesus christ
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Sep 9, 2016 23:15
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didn't trump say not too long ago that he could shoot someone and people would still vote for him is he just playing mad libs now?
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Sep 10, 2016 05:35
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I can only assume that this decision to censor the story means that he did indeed poo poo on the floor
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Sep 10, 2016 05:51
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Yeah, the media seriously needs to stop white-knighting for this.
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Sep 10, 2016 18:58
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Half was a bad word to use, regardless of whether or not it might be true, it comes across as overly generalizing. The sentiment still stands though.
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Sep 10, 2016 19:17
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Trying to "own" this title is, uh, not gonna work out very well.
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Sep 10, 2016 20:40
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Dexo posted:https://twitter.com/GovMikeHuckabee/status/774649943327899648 
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Sep 10, 2016 20:53
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Warcabbit posted:
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Sep 11, 2016 05:44
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