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Dick Milhous Rock!
Aug 9, 1974

:nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon:

:nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon:
Looking forwards to Trump not literally making GBS threads himself on stage during the debates, which will be declared a tie by the NYT as the desperately try to sell the horse race.

Also looking forwards to Kellyanne Conway losing her goddamn mind.

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Dick Milhous Rock!
Aug 9, 1974

:nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon:

:nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon:

Sean Hannity is so far up Trump's rear end he's vetting his dental work

Dick Milhous Rock!
Aug 9, 1974

:nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon:

:nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon:
lol this was called back in August, that the race would go back from being a 15+ point Hillary race to a 6-7 point Hillary race.

Trump still needs to win Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado in some combination of four in order to have a viable path. He's not winning four of those. He'll be lucky to win even one of those. He seems to be looking for some mythical rust belt Atlantis with 100 million voters and 100 EVs that doesn't exist, and also New York for some reason.

He's still not even bothering on a GOTV operation, his organization is run by idiots that are antagonistic to the RNC, and the RNC is shuffling money towards senate races still because they can't afford to run the whole national campaign without their candidate.

If you're freaking out, take the advice of some of the other posters and take a month off, do a hobby, or volunteer for a campaign so you can actually do something constructive instead.

Dick Milhous Rock!
Aug 9, 1974

:nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon:

:nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon:

CelestialScribe posted:

I'm sorry, this race is not a six point race. Try two or three.

Nope, if it were two or three she'd be under the 300 EV margin consistently for a week.

Dick Milhous Rock!
Aug 9, 1974

:nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon:

:nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon::nixon:

Goatman Sacks posted:

Another poll came out the same day having her +7.

The polling wasn't this fucky last time was it? It was mostly just Rassmussen and Gallup being R+5 for no reason... or is this just indicative of it being a closer election?

Part of it is the increasing ability of media to cherry pick results, and the rise of white noise pollsters who produce clickbait getting mixed in with more legit strategies, and short of outright manufacturing numbers places like 538 will try to weight for a house effect but in most cases won't be able to accurately judge until after the election is over how good a LV screen is.

Political polling in 2016 is a victim of the success it had in 2012. Political professionals have had four years to think about how to gently caress with it so it can't steal "drama" from the "narrative."

I'm pretty sure a short while ago one of the PEC guys noted that at the national level the race is pretty stable and has been for months.

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