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Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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max4me posted:

The other thing I worry about is the state of the democratic party. Trump is very toxic to non whites and is basically driving them to the dems because of our two party system. But if you take away the enemy of my enemy, stuff can they keep it together to get some problems solved.

This has been on mind since the Orlando shooting.

Conservatives: "a member of a group I hate shot up members of another group I hate....I have mixed feelings about this"

Liberals: "a member of a group I support shot up members of another group I support.....I have mixed feelings about this"

If the GOP wants to get in the white house they are gonna have to find a different wedge to peel off democratic voters, conversationally the democratic party is gonna have to find a way to keep its support when we dont have the evil orange man yelling about poo poo.

Trump isn't an existential threat to non-whites that is driving them into a temporarily partnership with Democrats. The GOP as a whole is doing that, and the Democratic Party is becoming more and more reliant on and composed by minorities. Trump is definitely driving up turnout, but unless the GOP actually jettisons the the Southern Strategy they've been desperately trying to hide for decades, minorities are not going to come flocking back to the GOP. Given the wise insight into race that the GOP has been displaying, I expect 2017 rebuilding to be built on Taco Tuesdays and Soul Food Sundays, as presented by rich old white people pretending not to be double checking their car lock every time the attendees walk by.

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Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Is this for the one district that sometimes goes blue or the entire state?

According to the 538 data placement, it's statewide.

Will we finally have an election map that lets you drive up and down the coasts and across the country without ever having to enter a red state?

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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max4me posted:

I am going to assume you mean minorities as in (none whites).

my concern comes from the fact that minorities are not a monolithic bloc, and I doubt there is much solidarity between all the different groups.

I've talked about my retarded fox news watching friend in other threads.

But he likes to say "Mexican, Blacks, and Muslims are really conservatives they just dont know it but yeah they are if you look at social issues like gay marriage, etc you know blacks are very religious etc"

He does this when I point out how his team lost with mittens.

I tried to point out how condescending he sounded and now that I think about it the whole TRUMP

"What do you blacks have to lose by voting for me, you lot is awful under obama it will be awful under crooked Hillary"

looks more like a another version of "you silly people are really on our side your just too stupid to know it"

The southern strategy worked on a level of adding abstraction to the mix, hence the adopting of economic polices to hurt poor black more than whites.

If you rebuke the white nationalism and just put a spin on conservatism as an ideology to appeal to different blocks of voters. Remember Goldwater hated the new conservatism under regan, which is very different than what we see today.

The problem for the right is that the kindred ideals only really exist on an extremely surface examination. Ok, Blacks and Latinos tend toward being religious. Now look at how the preferred tenets of their religiosity compare to those of the typical Republican Holy Roller. Their religiosity is much more likely to be steeped in social justice rather than prosperity gospel. They also have very different political priorities and are unlikely to be voting based on guns, taxes, and abortion. Plus they're understandably turned off by nationalism, which is a core fetish of the GOP.

The Southern Strategy isn't about picking up minorities while also picking up racist voters. It's about picking up the racists while using just enough plausibly deniable language to also pick up the selfish idiots who can't stomach full throated racism but will happily gobble up veiled racism. Minorities however don't miss the fact that all those code words are still talking about them.

Further, in addition to racial minorities the GOP also likes to gently caress up gender issues. The GOP isn't going to be able to just throw a coat of paint over their dilapidated racist misogyny van and suddenly get all those non-white men on board. They're going to have to actually get a new ride if they want to pick off the Democratic coalition.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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zoux posted:

Yeah, I don't like it because even if we win the Senate in 16, we'll lose it again in 18.

If the Republicans didn't get rid of it in '18 anyway I'd be somewhat surprised.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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BetterToRuleInHell posted:

How did Rubio win? Are democrats that terrible in FL?

Yesterday? Because it was a primary.

6 years ago? It was 2010 and he was in a three way race with a black guy and the brownest white man to ever betray everyone by touching Obama.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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emdash posted:

If it isn't folsky and charming, then what is?

I would say it's folksy and charming but those aren't virtues, haha

You know that feeling you get when you're talking to your parents and they try to use some "hip" slang they picked up through TV? It's that, only when it's felt by your grandmother when she's 90 and the older people in her retirement community act similarly.

Munkeymon posted:

According to the hip-hop classics station here the only thing that counts is Nelly and anything featuring Nelly, as far as I can tell from listening sporadically.

Wow, your classic station sucks. I think I've heard Nelly once in the last couple years on my local station.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Ups_rail posted:

I disagree, Remember that they were able to get women to fight against each other with the Equal Rights Amendment by framing it as "young women in the work force look down upon you simple salt of the earth older home makers"

As for the new ride the great awakening and the creation of the abortion controversy we just a generation ago. Alies won with his idea of fox news. Regan took his biggest internal critic H bush and made him vice president. Even though H bush called his economics Voodoo.

Also are media will bend over to blow the GOP and do that truth is in the middle poo poo. So yeah they can come up with a new bag the media will let the pundits lie through their teeth, and they could just wait for some scandal or incident to happen to the dems and prey upon it.

Yes, they were able to do that in the past. However they were also able to put people up for office who could get more than 2% of minorities to vote for them as well. They locked themselves into the echo chamber and now they're really feeling the effects. Turns out that while women are split on abortion and can be turned against each other demographically, they're pretty not big on talk of legitimate rape, the miraculous prophylactic powers of aspirin, or being dismissed for having blood coming out of wherever.

The GOP can't just hit reset by slapping a new coat of paint over their same old poo poo and carry on because while the attention span of the average voter makes flies look as long lived as tortoises, personally offending them sticks.

Munkeymon posted:

Yeah, I'm not a fan. GF loves Nelly for some reason, though :shrug:

My only complaints about my station is Steve Harvey in the morning and Sunday Morning Gospel. Other than that I can listen to a mix of good stuff from Funk Master Flash to the hottest acts of the late '90s.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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William F Cuckley posted:

He's a drifter who Don Drapered his way into working as a GOP hatchetman who was so terrible Newt Gingrich of all people forced him to resign.

All in all good people.

What happened to :newt: anyway? I haven't heard anything from him since shortly after he was passed over for VP. Is he bitter, or has he just realized that Trump is doomed and is making sure he's among the first rats off the ship?

Sword of Chomsky posted:

How many people don't know that Citizens United was a suit even related to HRC? Im betting at least 75%.

Considering the number of people who think she likes CU, I feel like you're really lowballing there.


Hillary can no longer bear to share her one true love with anyone else.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Shillary posted:

Wow, the head of Latinos for Trump just said on national TV that the reconquista is real and inevitable, and without Donald Trump there will be "taco trucks on every corner".

Look, I would never stand against taco trucks on every corner. But if we're getting Reconquitad, I'm forced to be a little worried. I mean, yeah, I can deal with getting reconquistad to either French or Latin food culture. But we were also British at one point. Sweet Jesus, please don't make us go English on our cuisine. I'm already punished enough living here in Florida.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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PhazonLink posted:

Yup all latinos eat tacos, an entire continent/ demographic.

edit: I like how this food derail is caused by Trump's POS proxy.

I do not believe there are any peoples on the Earth who do not eat tacos. If there are, it is very sad and we should get them some.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Night10194 posted:

Wait, they think the crazy hitler speech is an election winner? Why the hell did they do the last two weeks before it, then?

Surprising that a bunch of racist neo-nazis in denial are big fans of a crazy Hitler speech. I do feel bad for Ivanka though. She seems to be a decent enough person who tried valiantly to get her dad to be reasonable and at every turn she was stymied by the fact that he's a giant, orange, racist, baby. She even tried a Russian take over, and daddy just ignored the dictator whisperer in favor of his racist buddies who make him feel good.

The Trump campaign is only going to accelerate down the path of insanity now. The last voices of moderation are quitting and being driven out. All that's left are insane people who are true believers in the silent majority and the power of hate. And those racist idiots are going to be so loving happy and adoring of Jersey Shore Mussolini that his narcissism won't let him do anything but follow them down this path.

Epic High Five posted:

I don't like it though. The press has proven many times that they have no intention of being fair or not holding Clinton to ridiculous double standards.

I'd rather she just keep blowing them off instead of inviting a bunch of people paid by Zucker and Murdoch to dig through her trash cans for anything they can find

Hillary is still not going to answer a single question or even converse with any member of the press. Instead she will spend 5 minutes of each day making them all sit on the floor of the plane while she reads to them from Abuela's Big Book Of Trump Oppo.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Augus posted:

So with all this "The lead is closing! :derp:" talk, anybody pointing out that Trump's not really picking up any votes for himself?

This is almost always the case. Trump has exceeded 44% three whole times since October. With the exception of that brief period around the RNC, every instance of the polls tightening has far more to do with Hillary's support dropping than Trump's increasing. Most often those periods coincide with Trump's brief forays into shuting the gently caress up and the media flipping out over emails because they've got nothing else to talk about with Hillary.



GalacticAcid posted:

Yessss Kissinger won't endorse Clinton!

I'm with her now.

This is silly. Yes, Kissinger is a fat loving piece of poo poo who deserves to be in a jail cell. However Kissinger and other dickbags from the right endorsing Hillary has almost nothing to do with her policies and is based on all but 0 agreement on anything. They're all swinging support her way because the Orange Hate Golem is so bad that he's garnering negative endorsements of disagreement. They are all saying that Trump is so bad they'll endorse Clinton, which is analogous to Georgia fans rooting for Florida to win a game.

It's absolutely nothing like Trump's endorsements by neo-nazis and the KKK, they're giving him positive endorsements of agreement, because he's expressing racist trash opinions. Like an Eagles fan picking up batteries.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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RiotGearEpsilon posted:

Still nine weeks out. People will remember the taco truck meme nine weeks from now but it won't have the same power it has now.

Early voting in several states starts weeks before then. Also it should be pretty easy to get some taco trucks to the limited number of early voting locations, they can probably even just ask existing Taco Trucks to do it.

gently caress, now I really want Taco Trucks to show up at early voting locations if for no other reasons than having Taco Trucks in the parking lot when it's time for my lunch. Surely the entrepreneurial spirit of Food Truck drivers will prevail and they'll head the call regardless.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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RuanGacho posted:

Should we really be surprised that there is a market for a reality denying poll?

I eagerly await all the think pieces about why the polling was so wrong and how no one could possibly have seen the landslide coming.

NippleFloss posted:

If you believe that things are tightening again then you also accept that at best Trump can only sustain short term damage from even the worst of gaffes, so why bother burning damaging info when he can just "moderate" for a week and everyone forgets.

And if you don't think things are tightening then why worry about this at all?

I'd say it's actually the opposite. The race tightens for brief periods when Trump is reigned in by his advisors for a polling cycle and the media has nothing to do but print endless articles about emails and the Clinton Foundation that boil down to "if you think about it hard enough, don't you smell smoke?"

Only Trump's numbers never rise, it's Hillary's numbers falling as people think maybe she is just as bad as Trump. Then Trump Trumps, everyone realizes that no, she's really not just as bad, her numbers go back up to just under 50% and things continue on as usual until the cycle repeats. Except each time it cycles through the polls stay further apart and Clinton rebounds faster and higher. It also happens about every 2 and a half moths or so, which is an issue for Trump since it's happening now so it's not due to happen again until around the end of November or mid December.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Crowsbeak posted:

Yeah this is where I stand. Look I want Hillary to win, but she has to up her game, and as much as everyone wants to blame the media for the email bullshit. Guess what? they'll go for what will sell, and if Trump isn't being an rear end in a top hat for a week they go there. So HRC needs, needs to start just releasing all the oppo research she has on Trump because the Media will start to bite.

Hillary is going to start flying with the press and probably start talking Trump stories and fluff pieces not about her email. We're 3 weeks from the debate, and at that point we enter the home stretch when everyone who is going to vote actually pays attention. If after the first debate she's still rope a doping, then is the time to start thinking about worrying.

FairGame posted:

To be fair, if she were good at campaigning she wouldn't have gotten schlonged by Obama. Or had such a tough time with Bernie.

I don't think she's particularly good at this stuff. A pity that campaigning and governing are so vastly different skill sets.

This is ridiculous. Campaign Obama is an electoral juggernaut and the 2008 version was playing the game on god mode. Meanwhile Sanders was done by Super Tuesday and the appearance of a super tough slog was due to Hillary doing her best to keep everything friendly as possible so Bernie supporters would quickly migrate to her.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Augus posted:

I too find this a bit confusing, how exactly does Trump barely having any path to victory translate to a 70% chance of Clinton winning?

Most of the sites that aggregate build in a decent fudge factor of uncertainty to their models. Nate's in fact has a sliding scale of uncertainty where the further out from election day the more his model leans towards the Any Given Sunday theory. Further most of the aggregators use national polling either exclusively or as the main base of their models, so they're including the chances of a 2000 type event where a candidate wins the EC but loses the popular vote. Additionally they usually have their own secret sauce blend of assumptions about various outside events and trends that they use to goose their numbers.

Nate is overly cautious in his predictions so he has one of the highest degrees of uncertainty baked into his models and actually has 3 different models running for most of the election. On the other end of the group is Sam Wang and PEC, who use primarily state polls to determine the victor and are almost always have the least uncertainty baked into their model. At the end of the day Nate's predictions will cover a wider range of possibilities, allowing him a greater chance of being right but PEC's will be more precise allowing a greater chance of being super right. There are various reasons that have validity for their different choices, but at the end of the day if they are both right Sam Wang gets to wear the crown of Nerd King while Nate has to polish Sam's collection of Texas Instruments Graphing Calculators.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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A Clinton SuperPAC should open up some "issue driven" taco trucks and make some extra money while driving roving billboards around.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Periodiko posted:

He'll also lie a lot about his policies, and not get called on it because of the nature of a live debate. Even Romney pulled that off. He'll appear more reasonable than he ever has. He'll feign incredulity and try to make Clinton look like a liar, while lying through his teeth in his authentic, convictionless way.

Unfortunately he just did that to the President of Mexico. Hillary isn't going to gently caress up like Pena Nieto did. Trump has done the wild man and the "presidential" in debates and national appearances already, meaning that Clinton is ready for him. Plus, Trump just can't help but be Trump when he's in a free form environment without the aid of a teleprompter.

theflyingorc posted:

They're about to get a huge amount of access

If Hillary manages to get the press to gush over some severely limited availability after spending almost the whole year pissing them of by not directly aiding them with their emails idiocy I'm just going to laugh and laugh. So desperate for that press conference that they end up letting her get away with a question about Trump meeting with Pena Nieto and then don't notice her segway the whole thing into a discussion about her binders full of Trump opposition.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Euphoriaphone posted:

I listened to the last 538 podcast, and I could have sworn they said their model factors state polling more heavily than national polling.

It uses both, but uses the national numbers to manipulate the state numbers if there is either a lack of state polls or a lack of recent enough for their liking state polls. The preference is always for the newest over the average, and the nowcast in particular cares more about trend lines than previous entries.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Lightning Knight posted:

This one always made me curious. Is there a better way they could collect data on this other than hoping people volunteer the info? Honestly interested here, I don't know a lot about labor statistics collection in America.

They actually collect the unemployment data in 6 different ways. We just have always used U-3 as the official rate. The increase in talk about the U-6 rate would be getting a lot more traction and support if it's origin wasn't the right desperately flailing around for a way to show that Obama Bad. The thing to remember though is that there are arguments for and against all 6 rates and that they should be taken not only as trend lines but also in context both historically and currently.

Here's the Table A-15 from last week:


Here's a graph going back to 1994 of U-3, U-5, and U-6 rates(the gray bars are recessions):


Today's U-6 unemployment is around where we were in January of 1995 and July of 2003. U-5 is around what it was in December of 2007, April 2005, October 2001, and April of 1997. The official U-3 rate is around where we were in December 2007, August 2005, August 2001, and September of 1997. We're still clearly recovering from the 2008 crash, but the recovery rate is faster than both the 92 and 01 recessions.

Lightning Knight posted:

Hillary unfortunately won't win a huge landslide victory because of both increased polarization and the simple fact that Republicans by and large won the narrative war for the last forty years.

That Hillary loving Clinton is doing as well as she is, is a testament to how much better organized Democratic campaigning has gotten thanks to Obama. There's a lot of structural and demographic hurdles to overcome in this particular election for Dems, even if in the future it will be easier.

I disagree. I think that if current trends continue Hillary is looking at an old school landslide. Obviously not paint the whole map Blue territory, but it's possible to go over 400. The main things in her favor are Trump really sucks and is pissing everyone but old white guys off, and the combination of her strong ground game and his near total lack of ground game. The fact that they're opening offices in red states and spending money there while Trump can't be bothered to open more than one office in Florida or any in North Carolina supports that.

Come November my feeling is that Trump supporters will be demoralized, Democrats will be energized to vote for a winning ticket, the ground game disparity gives Hillary an effective 5 point bump nearly across the board, and the usual cratering of 3rd party candidates overwhelmingly shifts towards Hillary. 2012 Obama plus NC seems to be her floor, and that's 347 in the EC.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Pastrymancy posted:

I have no idea what questions are going unanswered at this point that they need to ask at whatever these people constitute as a press conference.

Granted, a bunch of them spent half the day tweeting photos of the press plane so I'm sure they're all morons anyways.

You need to have a press conference so that you can get up and ask idiotic questions about emails, the Clinton Foundation, and Hillary's health on TV. Just nothing but those questions by everyone so they can be on TV asking those questions. That proves that they're not biased and are totally serious journalists asking the same question as the last 3 people and holding Hillary's feet to the fire. Gotta have that spectacle on TV so everyone knows who you are and that you're a big boy/girl. Also the opposition press gets to show the people they're pandering too that they're super big boys/girls by asking leading questions that are just repackaged Trump attacks in a less circuitous manner.

Informal gaggles are where they ask actual questions and if they get stupid the candidate can call them out and the other reporters will laugh at them, because there's no spectacle or chance for you to be on TV and wave to your mom while being super serious.

Lote posted:

I've heard solid middle class people say they didn't want a wage increase because working in fast food shouldn't make $15/hr because that would be getting paid too much for the skills involved. These were people that make $30/hr plus benefits and are most likely in a union. They were also discussing how they wouldn't support it even if it meant they would get raises too.

They'll keep saying that until they find out what their raise is going to be. Then they'll talk about how they earned that raise while bitching about how easy kids have it today. Why in my day you made $2.90 and you were happy to have it. No, I don't want to hear about how inflation adjusted that's higher than the current minimum wage or that kids aren't the ones primarily working for minimum wage.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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DemeaninDemon posted:

Depends if it's based in reality or not.

For example: Obama's willingness to compromise with the gop at first gave us the ACA without single payer which is basically a handout to the insurance industry.

How do people keep forgetting who the true gremlin in the ACA was?

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Shbobdb posted:

So now we're going all revanchist and saying that Hillary should have won in '08?

She won the popular vote because Obama killed it in caucuses while Hillary won California, Texas, New York, and Florida. Also Obama wasn't even on the Michigan ballot. Nobody is saying Hillary was the real winner.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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No first use is obviously the policy the US is going to go with, and pretending that not making it official does anything is silly. The US is about as likely to decide to up and blow up the world as Louie Anderson is to enter a marathon. Insisting "I could totally push the button, don't push me!" is the game of a scrappy, hungry, authoritarian madman. It's not a game for the world's fat, rich, douchy uncle.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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The Shortest Path posted:

I don't know because I'm not a military or foreign politics expert. But the fact that we still have them at all lends credence to the idea that they're useful for something, therefore there's no reason not to put that political leverage to use.

The only reason we still have them is because other nations have them and thus we are crystal clear about being super down with retalitory strikes. We've been reducing our stockpiles for decades and trying to get everyone else to do so as well. Launching nukes as a non retalitory option is dumb and does nothing but guarantee we get nuked. Especially when we can just throw 32 metric gently caress tons of regular rear end whooping at anyone instead of dying in nuclear fire.

quote:

The lack of a No First Use policy does not imply that we will launch nukes.

It's explicitly saying to the world "Watch out, because I'm loving crazy. I'll kill us all, watch out!" It's loving dumb and no one believes it anyway.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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The Shortest Path posted:

My point is that publicly saying we will never use them is more likely to encourage those like North Korea to make threats.

The current purpose of nuclear arms stockpiles is as a deterrent. If we claim we are not going to deter with them, that does not work.

The deterrent lies in us double pinky swearing that we'll turn the world to ash if any of you other fuckers even thinks about nuking us. It does not lie in us telling everyone we're crazier than a shithouse rat, and we're willing to whistle a jaunty tune as we start Armageddon.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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The Iron Rose posted:

None obviously, but the threat of doing so most certainly is. Which is why it's critical that we maintain American credibility, so foreign Nations understand that the response to wonton aggression will be severe.

The actions of states cannot be so easily reduced to game theory and 'bluffing'. The fact that you're thinking in those terms is revealing.

Nobody believes that the United States is going to First Strike anyone, there is no credibility to be maintained in pretending we will. Especially when conventional unstoppable death from above is both an actual realistic response and something everyone 110% believes we'll do.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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iospace posted:

Sorry to go off the current topic here, but new PPP Polls are out:

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/773511587680444416

If Grassley is actually only up 7 points the GOP are turbo hosed in the Senate. He's the bleeding edge of the pipe dream, wish on a star seat flips. There's like 11(?) Republican seats that are more likely to flip than his. He usually wins by 30 or more points.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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So we've got about 6 weeks before early voting begins. Considering Florida and North Carolina both have early voting, I assume Hillary's ground game is going to be focused on getting everyone to have already cast their vote for her by Halloween. Which is going to be the biggest issue with Trump's lack of ground game, people with anything at all going on on election day are going to have to choose between that and dragging their rear end back to their precinct to vote for an orange hate golem. Meanwhile Hillary's operation are going to be focused on fewer and fewer of her voters who need encouragement to give in to Abuela.

It's double troubling for the GOP since if Hillary already got her vote locked in providing one rickety voting machine to Democratic majority precincts isn't going to have nearly the vote suppressing effect that is desired. Plus Trump's vigilante vote enforcement goons are going to have a much tougher time intimidating people.

Epic High Five posted:

Okay y'all I did some investigative reporting and Huma is definitely into some Demonic poo poo. I emailed that .goy address of hers and a bunch of gibberish from a daemon came back :tinfoil:

Did you email her @state.goy or did you use the proper address of ©state.goy?

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Shimrra Jamaane posted:

What battleground states have universal early voting?
According to Ballotpedia
  • Arizona
  • Florida
  • Georgia
  • Iowa
  • Nevada
  • North Carolina
  • Ohio
    ------------
  • Indiana
  • Nebraska
  • Utah

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Abisteen posted:

I know that Florida has no questions asked absentee ballots because that's how I vote. My wife and I get our ballots a few weeks before election day and there's just a box to check that says "hey yeah send me one of these next election too" so I don't even have to leave the house. A lot of my coworkers do the same.

So at least in my county in Florida (Leon county which is where Tallahassee is) has lots of people early voting.

You don't even have to do that if you want to early vote in Florida. Just go to one of your county's designated early voting locations and physically vote on a whim 8-15 days(depending on how big a jackass your supervisor of elections is) before the election.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Thats a real Clinton favorable list. GOTV in Ohio, Florida, and NC and it's over before election day.

So how does a competent and organized GOTV program work?

You work with local organizations, like churches for Souls to the Polls, to get people to the polls. Additionally you compile a list of local voters for your field offices to hound the poo poo out of until they vote. The list is created using various databases and statistical models to determine voters who are going to vote Democratic. As election day approaches you do a combination of phone calls, text messages, emails, direct mail and door knocking to determine who has voted, who will vote, who needs help getting out to vote, and who needs encouragement as well as what that encouragement is to go out and vote. You also use local media and media personalities who are more demographically targeted to implore listeners/followers to vote.

While doing that you further refine your lists through those contacts with voters and encourage them to help you by getting their friends and family out to vote. I believe they can check to see if you've voted, because I remember getting frequent reminders from Obama to go vote that stopped as soon as I did vote. Bernie volunteers texted me a couple times before I texted back that I was voting.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

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neoliberal posted:

Because pledging to the flag isn't about the injustice or bad events going on in the country at the current point in time.

I understand his argument. I understand why he's making it. He has every right to feel the way he does - and to do what he does- but he's wrong.

To quote Franklin K. Lane.

"I am not the flag; not at all. I am but it's shadow.
I am whatever your make me; nothing more.
I am your belief in yourself, your dream of what a people may become.
I live a changing life, a life of moods and passions, of heart breaks and tired muscles
Sometimes I am strong with pride when men do honest working fitting rails together truly
Sometimes I droop, for then purpose has gone from me, and cynically I play the coward.
Sometimes I am loud, garish, and full of that ego that blasts judgment.
But always I am all that you hope to be and have the courage to try for.
I am song and fear, struggle and panic, and ennobling hope.
I am the day's work of the weakest man and the largest dream of the most daring.
I am the Constitution and the courts, statutes and the statute-makers, soldiers and dreadnaught, drayman and street sweep, cook, counselor, and clerk.
I am the battle of yesterday and the mistake of tomorrow
I am the mystery of the men who do without knowing why
I am the clutch of an idea and the reasoned purpose of resolution
I am no more than what you believe me to be and I am all that you believe I can be
I am what you make me; nothing more.
I swing before your eyes as a bright gleam of color, a symbol of yourself, the picture suggestion of that big thing that makes this nation.
My stars and stripes are your dream and your labors.
They are bright with cheer, brilliant with courage, firm with faith, because you have made them so out of your hearts.
For you are the makers of the flag, and it is well that you glory in the making."

Well, good thing the football player is doing absolutely nothing about pledges or the flag then. He's simply not standing for the national anthem, which no one has yet to write un-American idiotic poems about.

woke wedding drone posted:

Koko is actually intent on learning new things.

On the other hand she did blame her kitten for ripping a sink out of the wall. Classic Republican move that.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Eifert Posting posted:

WASPs are the worst, I just say I'm not that.

Fortunately there's still an out for white anglos, via atheism.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

WampaLord posted:

:qq: But she's not winning by enough :qq:

I prefer to think that the polls are missing the silent majority.

Mi Abuela in an historic landslide.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

FairGame posted:

How did Trump do relative to his polls during the primaries, excluding caucus states?

I remember he underperformed in Iowa but that's a caucus. I can't remember how he did anywhere else. And he had a poo poo/nonexistent ground game then. Now it's up against a good one, so if that matters at all that could be a big deal.

Or it could be meaningless in an election that fucks up everyone's models and notions.

He slightly under-performed his polls on average, but only by about 1 point.

Of course there are a metric assload of caveats to be thrown out when comparing his past primary performance to his potential future performance.
  • Primaries are going to have low turnout and the people who are actually going to go vote in a primary don't need much encouragement.
  • Even leaving aside caucus results there's a host of different hurdles in the primary that aren't there in the general such as party restrictions on voting, odd times for voting, odd dates for voting, no other reason(generally) to show up to the primary other than the presidential contest, etc.
  • All the candidates are going to have overlap on the primary version of GOTV efforts so if Ted Cruz is getting Republicans out he's neccessarily going to be helping a few Trump voters get to the polls.
  • There isn't near the apocalyptic end of America conniptions on ether side in the primary that there is in the general.
  • Joke, protest, unconsidered, and random voting are all going to be higher in the primary when you're voting in a preliminary round for an abstract candidate to face the other party's abstract candidate in the final.
  • In Trump's case the primaries were, for a normal candidate, about 14 voting demographic insults ago and 88 campaign ending scandals ago.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

WampaLord posted:

Of course she's right. Obama was right about the "clinging to guns and religion" crowd too, but it didn't make it any less of a gaffe.

It's a gaffe. It'll be a story for a news cycle. It will be long forgotten by November. It is certainly not the "moment she lost the campaign."

To be fair, there's still plenty of time for Trump to steal the limelight with a patented Trump level gaffe that has everyone forgetting all about Hillary for a few days.

Hopefully Hillary's crew can find a way to head off the gathering gaffe storms with some master level spin, a restatement by Hilldawg herself, or something.

Cythereal posted:

Hillary saying she likes to snack on cashews is a gaffe for her in the modern media.

No, seriously, it crops up occasionally in Freep - Hillary once mentioned that her favorite snack is a bowl of salted cashews and Freepers occasionally mention that cashews are pure evil and anti-American.

If you think cashews are bad and you aren't allergic to them, your opinion is worth less than the prognostications of Bill Krystol.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Your Boy Fancy posted:

Getting sympathy from their devil will be the final insult.

Plus they hate their kids "music". Not like the dulcet tones of Sinatra or Dean Martin.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

The point is that this can galvanize Trump supporters. Unless Hillary backs this up right loving now they are going to happily coopt the Basket of Deplorables label and circle the wagons around it. It provides enthusiasm. It doesn't matter that the context is that the other half of Trump supporters are all decent people, that message has already been lost.

It's like how biker gangs have long since coopted the whole 1%er thing.

This looks to be part of the strategy of isolating Trump and offering a graceful hand out to the poor Republicans stuck with him so that they can join Abuela. She's going to keep reinforcing the idea that Donald Trump and a large portion of his supporters are racist assholes, and the rest of the GOP are poor naifs being overtaken by the bully. The objective isn't just to drive Trump and his core supporters back to the fringe of politics, but also to provide opportunities for down ballot Democrats to push their Republican opponents into the fringe by tying them with Trump. The Republican candidates are then stuck in the position of trying not to piss off their racist base while still courting the rest of the electorate who is getting mighty pissed off at that racist base.

If come Monday the takeaway in the media is that Hillary said all Trump voters are in the Basket of Deplorables, the campaign is probably simply going to focus on emphasizing the second portion of the attack. Shining a spotlight on the escape raft for Republicans who don't want to be called racist. Hurry, friends, Abuela knows that you too are beset by hordes of racist mouth breathers, take our hand to freedom!

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Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK
https://twitter.com/thinkprogress/status/774623715057340417

quote:

Is percentage, as Clinton suggested, about 50 percent? That depends on how you define the various forms of bigotry within the Trump coalition. But, based on the polling, Clinton appears to be more likely to be downplaying the issue than overstating it.

The Clinton Campaign can only hope that the fact checking of her statement becomes the ongoing focus.

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