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POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
Man, I don't know. I don't think there's a 19th person, at least not in this cycle. Beatrice's nuclear meltdown and the similarity of her appearance to Rosa's really just makes me think rosa is the main culprit for this scenario.

She has two solid enough motivations to kill her siblings. Revenge and money. Jessica and George also represent unacceptable barriers to Maria becoming the heir.

The servants can be explained as collateral damage. They knew too much and raised the risk level too high. Now all that remains, really, is Battler.

I suppose this is too much why and not enough how, but those are the factors which make me believe that Rosa is the so called witch. She is also the person we see behave with the most outward violence. She is relatively young and appears physically healthy, so some feats of strength aren't out of her reach, unlike Kumasawa...

And that last scene with Natsuhis room being broken into by the witch... Rosa has a firearm. If she can't kick the door down because of gohdas superior strength, she can shoot him through it. Then she can kill Shannon and George.

So what, then, are Battler and Maria doing during my hypothetical version?

POOL IS CLOSED fucked around with this message at 15:43 on Nov 19, 2016

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POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

NachtSieger posted:

Well, George is probably busy being dead.

Right, that should've been Battler!

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

whitehelm posted:

Don't forget that last we knew, Rosa was barricaded in the room with Battler and Maria. You need to figure out how and when she snuck out with this theory.

Unless she didn't sneak.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
There are also two other servants on the island, right? Munon and Runon, I think? We've only been introduced sort of to one, who's a slacker.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

Dr Pepper posted:

They're two other servants who work for the Ushiryomias but weren't given a shift on the island for the conference. So other then a background reference they're not important.

That's possible and likely, but at the same time, fairly tight narratives don't usually dispense mostly useless information, either.

What I'm saying is they're totally children of the corn!

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

Mercury Hat posted:

In that case, I propose that all of Jessica's classmates snuck onto the island to kill her and her family for beating them up with brass knuckles :witch: .

It's about as likely as witches!

Also, seriously... brass knuckles. :wtf:

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

tiistai posted:

At any rate, if nothing else this should prove Rosa didn't kill Shannon, George and Gohda by herself since she was with Battler the whole time since they were last seen. No way she could have snuck out,


In which case Battler is at least an accomplice and an unreliable narrator.

It's not impossible! :witch:

Well, that's something I've also been considering... It seems that at least some of the time, piece-Battler is also saying what meta-Battler is ranting at Beato. The other pawns at least sometimes respond to meta-Battler's rants and the setting transitions make it look like he's kinda dissociating? It's eroding my faith in his reliability.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

KataraniSword posted:

It's entirely possible that the metaverse/purgatorio version of Battler is in fact not the Battler that existed in this "game" prior to it being narrated. So here's a question that you'd never think to ask in a game where Magic And Witches Don't Exist: if you take the place of an alternate reality version of yourself, are you still you, or are you the alternate you?

Is it possible that meta-Battler is there, witnessing, whereas actual-Battler is off elsewhere, doing Shenanigans where his meta-self can't see?

In my profession, there's the concept of independence in appearance versus independence in fact. I'm going to extend this concept to interdimensional body-swapping between the same being traveling along different forks in the timeline and say that if alpha-you takes the place of beta-you, for all intents and purposes, you are yourself, even if the experiences your alpha and beta have accrued have resulted in alpha and beta developing different perspectives and agendas. No one in the beta-timeline has demonstrated any ability to perceive alpha-purgatory besides meta-Battler. (let's just confuse all the prefixes, hooray!) There's no reason to believe that meta-Battler is more than a ghost caught in the machinery of the universe. I suspect he might be less, and is some coping mechanism by real-Battler -- whether the pawn/beta-Battler we're seeing in this ep, or some "true end" Battler we'll meet in the future. (I mean... these games usually do have a "true end", right? So I anticipate we'll encounter that eventually...)

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

SardonicTyrant posted:

Imagine four Battlers on the edge of a cliff.

I'm gonna fall out if Battler pops up with a playing card in one of these screenshots.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
I think Rosa and Maria's headshots were swapped on this line: "...Are you saying... that you even want to be together with that kind of Mama...? Even though... I've been such a bad Mama...!!"

drat, though.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

Redmark posted:

also, cow tits

hm.

Tongue salad does sound kinda good, though.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

bman in 2288 posted:

So... What was the point of being a monster to Rosa? What do they stand to gain from abusing a small child so?

I guess it's easier to understand if you've been abused. Not to say that all victims are destined to take on that role themselves, but in my experience abuse leaves an indelible mark on not only how you perceive the world, but also how you cope with stress. Some people release that stress through tormenting someone who cannot fight back. Basically all the adults in this game have a poo poo load to answer for, and Kinzo above all.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
Is Golden Beatrice truly an endless witch? Or is her power really just endless destruction of things not fated to end by her hand?

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

EagerSleeper posted:

This family, I swear... With how much they have romances with furniture, I wonder how a trip to Ikea would go.

We don't talk about the Ushroimiya vs Ikea and the people of Japan case. It's not fit for public broadcast.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
They all seem to have been old enough to know that what they were doing was wrong when they abused Rosa. Rudolf included. Unfortunately, this type of behavior seems to have been normalized in the Ushiromiya family, so even though it was wrong, the siblings certainly felt like treating Rosa badly was their right as her elders. They're basically all badly behaved people who were abused by Kinzo and (just getting the hints from how they refer to her) their mother. The servants (with the exception of Gohda, who wasn't around for it) seem to have been subjected to some seriously dehumanizing poo poo, too. Plus Kinzo has had the current main branch of the family isolated on this dumpy island for the past 30 years. That's a long time to beat this nasty poo poo into his staff, his immediate family, and at least one grandkid.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

CottonWolf posted:

That was my read on it. Kinzo's a monster. The only question is, did Rosa kill old Beatrice from the intro or young Beatrice? Also, was that young Beatrice in the intro to this episode? If so, why does she refer to Kinzo as grandfather? Is she Krauss or Rudolf's child? Though that timeline doesn't really add up. If young Beatrice was that old then, Krauss and Rudolf would have been too young to impregnate anyone at the right time.

E: Unless Grandfather is Kinzo's father, or Kinzo has another child we've yet to become aware of.

Referring to an older man that you're close to as "grandfather" isn't that unusual in Japanese, so the most we can take away from it right now, I think, is that young Beato had a close relationship with her captor Kinzo. He's probably one of the few people she ever met.

I suppose the soundest theory is that she's mistress Beatrice and Kinzo's daughter and may/may not be their only offspring. It's possible young Beato has had children of her own by this point, too, and they might be sent to the orphanage to get them off the island. It would be a little difficult to hide additional people, especially newborns, I think, and I doubt Kinzo would feel that attached to them once he has his precious Beatrice reborn to cling to.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
That might make a nice avatar.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
Eva seems especially aggressive this episode, and it's grating as hell.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

bman in 2288 posted:

Oh poo poo, really? I did not pick up on that.

But something I did pick up on was how Eva and Krauss treat Rudolf and Rosa differently. Sure, they're still mocking Rudolf, but it really does feel as though it's closer to ribbing than the "go gently caress yourself" they throw at Rosa every time she opens her mouth.

This loving family, it's hard for me to want to solve the mystery when it involves dealing with 2 turbo-assholes and a sociopath.

Actually, I have no idea if Kinzo is a sociopath, or if he's got another issue. His clear inability to deal with people outside of business transactions almost makes me want to say he's probably on the spectrum, but that doesn't explain his complete lack of affection for literally everyone we've seen him interact with. So maybe he is a sociopath.

But I'm just a goon who's completely unqualified to diagnose anime characters. Gonna need more information to attempt to work with.

Yeah, solving the mystery would be less motivating if the children and servants weren't also murdered.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
Polydactyly is tied to more than 3 dozen genetic mutations, some of which are dominant. (I don't know if it would still manifest as extra toes, though.) I don't think the game has mentioned if Kinzo inherited it from one of his parents, or if his was an apparently spontaneous expression. Sometimes the trait appears to skip generations, so his parents might not have expressed polydactyly, but could've each independently carried recessive alleles.

Let's assume Kinzo's wife is the biological mother of all 4 siblings but doesn't have any recessive or dominant polydactyly genes and Kinzo's polydactyly is a dominant allele. Then if I remember right, each kid has a 50% chance of inheriting polydactyly from Kinzo. The cumulative probability of one or more siblings having an extra digit is something like 93% (thanks to Sodacan who linked me to a binomial probability calculator thing, because I couldn't remember how the hell to calculate this morning).

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
I think witches aren't being counted as humans, so she's not violating her own rules.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
Killing was the only way to make him stop interrupting and listen

Honestly, youth these days.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
This doesn't eliminate someone's chimpanzee theory.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

EagerSleeper posted:

It actually does. If Beatrice were any number of chimpanzees, she'd be an excellent climber and hence would not have fallen to her death. Chimpanzee theory: disproven.

hmm, i didn't look at it this way...

but what if, once freed from her cage of flesh, Beatrice was able to summon x chimpanzees to Rokkenjima, and use them as furniture to do her bidding?

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

resurgam40 posted:

Magic is only "real" if it can be performed exactly the same in front of everyone, and so far, it has only been performed in front of "believers" in magic or people who ended up dead by the end of the story. Legitimate energy sources, metamorphoses, and systems of physics do not suddenly stop working depending on who's observing; that isn't how those things work. And the metaphorical, systematic meanings behind these acts are not only hinted at by the author to be the truth, but are far more interesting to me than any so-called magic has been yet.

In short, I'm flattered that you think so highly of my posting and hope I can continue to meet expectations, but I will accept Ottumon's chimps before I accept magic by a witch. :colbert: (Really, the only problem I have with that theory is the lack of hair and poo poo about, which a troop of monkeys would surely leave behind. If he can tell us what happened to it to my satisfaction...)

they're bald chimps in diapers :colbert:

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

SardonicTyrant posted:

:aaaaa:

I definitely did not see that coming.

Yeah. Wow, Kumasawa.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

EagerSleeper posted:

I was about to say RIP Gohda and Kumasawa, but then this (wonderful, exciting) bullshit happened. :supaburn:

So, here's something that can be deduced. Kumasawa/Beato the Silver is waiting in a rose garden while it's raining, without an umbrella. That's because she gave the umbrella she had to Maria earlier (plus presumably the eagle-crested envelope). Maria will go back inside and tell everyone of the really nice and cool witch calling themselves Beatrice who gave them the umbrella, and the story goes into order.

What motivation would a magic-is-not-real version of Mackerel Beatrice have for meeting Maria in the rose garden, and giving her both the umbrella and eagle-crested envelope have? We know that she's been with the Ushiromiya family for a long time, but for some reason she doesn't have an eagle crest. This could mean that Kinzo does not care much for her for some reason. Perhaps a personal conflict? Either way, this would mean that Kumasawa is not much of an insider as the other servants are, so she would have to go about taking Kinzo's gold by a different way. She has experience about Kinzo's obsession with the occult, so she pulls an occult-themed challenge that will get the Ushiromiyas to easily take it seriously, because that's just how this family works.

Now, there's the question of why does Kumasawa, the person who is supposedly the actual Beatrice who sets off the demand that Epitaph of the Gold be solved or else, appear amongst the dead along with everyone else? That's because as we're seeing in the LP right now, there are two Beatrices. Kumasawa is one of them, and an unidentified other person is the other one. Two Beatrices, twice the fun, double the mystery.

ADDITIONAL CRACK THEORY: Kumasawa keeps mentioning mackerel around the Ushiromiya family because she's hoping that someone will eventually let something slip that will be a clue about what the hell the sweetfish part of the Epitaph of the Gold is about.

My hypothesis is now that Kumasawa is the mistress. :tinfoil:

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

tiistai posted:

I don't know where you guys are getting this, even the narration says she doesn't look anything like Kumasawa. Clearly they're completely different people.

Say it in red, witch!

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

Sindai posted:

Poor Gohda, he's the only person who's not a secret wizard. :(

He's a kitchen wizard! :eng101:

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
Yeah, that fight was very much like a game of pretend one upsmanship between kids. Which isn't that different from how Beato treats meta Battler.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
Beatrice wants worship just like any divine being! :c00lbutt:

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

KataraniSword posted:

Alternately, if you believe in magic/:japan:, that was some Fist of the North Star :black101: poo poo. You are already dead, indeed.

It was a pretty good turnaround, I have to admit. But still very much "children pretending to be superheroes" at the same time.

What happens when our Dante Battler finally catches up to and even surpasses darling Beatrice?

(And what happened to the weird lolita witches from the last chapter? Did they just get the boot?)

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
Or she was about to lie and Ronove stopped her so she wouldn't gently caress up the redtext.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

tiistai posted:

You'll just go mad if you start doubting even the basic premises.

But what she started to say wasn't in red. :iiam:

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
If you're counting Japanese syllables, keep in mind that they count based on the hiragana, not really on the sounds. So Rokkenjima would have one more syllable of that double k is based on a tsu, I believe. Tbf it's been a long time since I studied the language.

I'm pretty sure the key is also a person rather than an object or code. Knowingly or not, whoever the key is is the person choosing the first six victims. I think that person is probably a child, though maybe not Maria. Still, she does get the witch's letter first... I feel like we need more details about Kinzo before this can reasonably be solved but the speculation is very good.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
My brain has stopped at likewise drawing the conclusion that the riddle involves a really tortuous metaphor for sex and childbirth. Maybe I've had too much wine this evening. :psyduck:

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
So this room sounds like his combo mistress den and nursery, maybe.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
The riddle isn't finished yet, I think; after all, there's still all the stuff about the key and the murder-twilights. Do you think we'll miss out on more murders? I don't. Beatrice isn't done yet. She's showing Battler this for a reason.

Moreover, until all the players acknowledge Eva, she hasn't really won. There's no reason to think that she'll survive for much longer. The same may be said of Rosa.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

EagerSleeper posted:

Why does Kinzo keep someone hidden in an underground bunker for years on end? :gonk:

Why does any other awful person do it? :smith:

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POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
Honestly, given the magic flung about and the constantly shifting orders of the murders, I don't know how much of this to believe. :psyduck:

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