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So what are examples of "twofer" states where Clinton campaign efforts both help her win a swing state and also help a close Senate race? -North Carolina -Nevada -New Hampshire -PA -?Possibly Florida? Unfortunately the Ohio Senate race doesn't look competitive, nor does the Presidential race in Indiana.
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Oct 1, 2016 13:30
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| # ¿ May 9, 2024 11:52 |
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Xae posted:So we've got a Sharia law praising, multiple divorcee, multiple adulterer, endorser and cameo star of pornography that is still enjoying massive support from the Evangelicals. I found it revealing during the leadup to Super Tuesday that Trump was leading, and usually by double digits or close, in every Southern state except Texas, and was leading specifically among evangelicals. I thought it pretty much gave away the game that racism was much more central to the political identity of the "evangelical" voter than evangelism. At the same time most news coverage completely ignored this and talked up Cruz's huge advantage in the "SEC" primary because of all the evangelical Bible Belt voters his candidacy was engineered to appeal to, as if the polling and the recent South Carolina result didn't even exist.
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Oct 1, 2016 15:39
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Do Libertarian or Green Party politicians occupy any Mayor or Congressional seats in the U.S.? Do they even occupy any State Legislature seats?
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Oct 5, 2016 13:51
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Artificer posted:What in this analogy would be the Clinton Cavalry running people down?  Photoshop in the Hillary campaign logo on the shields. Eh, throw a few MAGA hats on the dudes inside the meat grinder.
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Oct 8, 2016 03:11
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You just know it's ultimately going to come out that Trump's big interest in beauty pageants is to fondle, assault and screw vulnerable contestants. Also, I need to know Rush Limbaugh's slant on all this, and what all Fox News has to say.
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Oct 8, 2016 03:20
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Whoever is in charge of OPPO/OCT SURPRISE department for HRC campaign is a cold blooded assassin. This, and the timing, is some serious Tom Hagen Consiglieri poo poo.
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Oct 8, 2016 03:33
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Northjayhawk posted:Clinton's campaign is in champagne mode. 
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Oct 8, 2016 03:53
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 This is my favorite part, the beginning of the rout! One organized army, the rest fleeing the field in chaos, every man for himself, and being hacked to pieces from behind by mounted cavalry!  Apropos of nothing, it occurred to me that the whole mentality of the alt-right is very much like the Droogs from A Clockwork Orange. So that's what I think of them as now.
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Oct 8, 2016 23:53
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Who is Bill Mitchell, anyway? Some kind of religious right type?
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Oct 8, 2016 23:59
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Someone posted earlier about the GOP "letting" the deplorable folks hang around the fringes for their votes. Nuh uh. The Tea Party nutters are pretty much the exact same people, hardcore Trumpists are just the same folks distilled down to a SLIGHTLY higher concentration. And the Tea Party, racist to the core (and big fans of Trump's birtherism, figure) were absolutely central to the GOP's midterm wins. So no one "let" anyone hang around at all. These people were actively cultivated and sought after and are a core element of GOP voters.
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Oct 9, 2016 01:00
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Night10194 posted:Yes, I do. I'm saying I never expected to actually see them get to this point this election. Yeah. I think any option loses hard at both the presidential and congress levels at this point and it's difficult to predict which has worse downticket consequences. The only real rationale to dump Trump at this point is to try to preserve some reputation and viability for future elections but they waited a long drat time even for that. Good luck with that.
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Oct 9, 2016 01:11
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When you really get down to it, the reason the Johnsons and Steins should always underperform their polling is that people answering the polls who are indicating they don't like "their" candidate (the one from the party more closely aligned with most of their views) are probably not going to be super motivated to actually get off their rear end and cast a vote that will have zero chance of electing a candidate, to go through the effort just to register a protest vote. It's easier to register that protest in a poll and takes less effort. Most of them would likely only turn out if they felt really strongly about a downticket race. This strikes me as unlikely for most of them. And speaking of Downfall, it's almost a shame that we won't get to see Bunker Trump. He'd be the most awesome bunker president.
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Oct 9, 2016 17:38
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What's great about the last couple of days is that some outcomes that I barely dreamed possible could actually happen, if Trump sets fire to the GOP badly enough in the remaining weeks. We could have: -Deploreables showing up to only vote TRUMP (click) and leave the downticket blank -Nondeploreables showing to vote only downticket and leaving the top blank or write-in/3d party I mean it could lead to a cataclysmic result, and a diminished voter base of GOP loyalists going forward. Abuela just needs to not literally loving fall down tonight.
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Oct 9, 2016 17:48
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Trump pre debate prep:
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Oct 9, 2016 18:15
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I guess Bannon has won the mini Angel-Devil shoulder war with Conway. I wonder if Kelly Ann is tied up in a dungeon in Trump Tower.
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Oct 9, 2016 18:19
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trash person posted:I think the 'Bill Clinton is a rapist' thing is Trump's final play. Not only has this play been telegraphed since debate number one, it was also telegraphed way early around the time Trump won the nomination, before Conway got him to briefly straighten his poo poo out.
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Oct 9, 2016 18:22
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Eugene V. Dabs posted:Well, the angle now is "Bill Clinton is a rapist and Hillary Clinton enabled him" If Abuela doesn't have a response prepared for this that doesn't at minimum neutralize it immediately and thoroughly, and at best knock Trump into the next zip code, I'll be pretty pissed.
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Oct 9, 2016 18:26
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Do you think that CNN released that the first debate question would be about the grope tape just to pump ratings? I'd think that ratings were going to be high anyway to see the train wreck, and if you teased that the question would be somewhere in the debate then you could keep the viewers all the way through.
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Oct 9, 2016 19:31
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Rhesus Pieces posted:"Still, months after Election Day they were finding bodies all over." If this ends with Ted Cruz attending a special meeting in a cornfield, I'm in.
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Oct 9, 2016 21:24
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The outcome of the race no longer depends upon the emergence of any more Trump tapes in my opinion. Sufficient damage has been done, Trump and time will do the rest. More would be a bonus though. I wonder how much Bailey's and Froot Loops cost these days.
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Oct 9, 2016 21:27
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mw_V9JpY41A "Give 'em the 'bear hug', he said." "'Smother 'em with love', he said." "'Gravity will bring him down', he said." "'His supporters will come will come to us', he said." https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/785154577209315328
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Oct 9, 2016 21:50
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So let me get this straight. Despite all the morally outraged posturing, and the unendorsements, the basic position of people like Paul Ryan and Pence is still "let's see how the debate goes tonight before we make any decisions", i.e. they are cowards still hoping that some debate miracle could put Trump back in this thing?
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Oct 10, 2016 00:36
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trash person posted:What does he think he's accomplishing with all of this? Yeah. Both Bannon and Trump have long believed that attacking Hillary as an enabler of Bill The Rapist is a winning attack for him. This dates back to long before the last week or so. I think that Trump, being a narcissist, completely fails to realize that Conway is the only reason he was even ever in this race during Pneumonia Week. Now that his chances are in the dumpster after debate #1 and he's taking heat from everywhere over pussy grab, he's probably all "WE TRIED IT YOUR WAY, KELLY ANNE!" and now Bannon has, at least for now, won the angel/devil battle on Trump's shoulders.
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Oct 10, 2016 00:41
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The whole thing about whether Trump would withdraw or be dumped somehow seems silly to me. I see no scenario where the head of the ticket withdraws or is booted with a month to go that doesn't result in massive loss both up and down the ticket for that party, for reasons that should be fairly obvious if you imagine the scenario for even a moment. The only meaningful aspect of it is whether it gives the people in the party any fig leaf of respectability going forward into future elections but I honestly think it's too late even now for the GOP to salvage that no matter what. The only people who can come out slightly clean are Kasich, Flake, Sasse. Ditto for Pence. He's hosed either way as far as I can see. Ultimately he made the big decision to be on the ticket and that ties him to Trump forever even if he left now. The only reason for him to leave now is not any practical political reason to preserve a future shot at the Presidency (he has none), it would be for personal reasons like he actually felt disgust, shame, moral revulsion to be tied to Pussy Grabbing Guy and if stuff like the Paula Jones circus actually make him feel sick to his stomach being associated with it.
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Oct 10, 2016 07:35
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Lid posted:If you think a presidential nominee refusi ng to debate their opponent for the first time in history will be a nothing event i have a bridge to sell you. This is a straw to grasp if you think this is in any way a brilliant move. Yeah. And the third debate is I think supposed to be on foreign policy/national security issues(?) that are supposed to be Trump's strong suit, with a Fox News moderator to boot. Furthermore, only people who are winning big in an election (like Trump was in the primaries) have the leverage to call the shots to do things like skip out on a debate. Trump is not in that position, he's losing and losing big. He actually needs debates as they represent opportunities with free media hype and exposure where if he performs well he can make up ground in a way nothing else in the campaign provides (except unpredictable events like economic crashes, super storms and stuff the candidates have no control over). A debate is like an extra possession in a football game, gives you another chance to score a touchdown. Zwabu fucked around with this message at 07:40 on Oct 10, 2016 |
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Oct 10, 2016 07:37
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Plus, Trump leaving or getting booted is too easy an out for him. I want him to be eating the vote results on Election Night.
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Oct 10, 2016 07:44
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Bip Roberts posted:It'll be cool when he's dead as a slab before the polls close central time. Yeah, too tired tonight but tomorrow morning I want to take a look at 270towin and game out what's the earliest time 270 EVs can be confirmed, if, say, she wins the whole Midwest, FL, NC and VA. Someone asked me "what if he doesn't concede"? If he's getting his rear end beat BIGLY, I would think that she could wait a couple hours after hitting 270 EV and then just give her speech. No reason for her supporters to have to stay up til 1AM or not hear a victory speech just because he decided to be a tool like always.
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Oct 10, 2016 07:49
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Night10194 posted:This actually seems like the worst possible strategy because 'every man for himself' routs are where most of the killing happens. Losing cohesion is dangerous. Yeah. From this position, a big loss in the presidential race is a given, and significant loss in the Congress is likely. If the goal is retaining the most seats, SOME kind of cohesive strategy would be best. Either the whole party not endorsing/unendorsing and condemning Trump, or all of them sticking with him. "Every man for himself! The rout is on!" means you can get some combination of: -Deploreables voting Trump only and leaving downticket blank -Nondeploreables voting R downticket and leaving the top blank, third party or write in -Some people switching D either up or downticket -and a substantial number of demoralized R voters, deploreable and nondeploreable varieties, staying home. I would definitely think this would have to lead to the worst congressional numbers and most silly EV margins. The only reason to do it is longer term considerations, trying to preserve the viability of the party and individual candidates in future elections.
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Oct 10, 2016 17:34
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Okay, just playing with scenarios, here's a map where 270 EVs are secured before you get as far west as Texas: http://www.270towin.com/maps/mNbEO Of course if any of the states were really close they wouldn't call them until late, and by then the West Coast Hammer of Justice (along with CO, NV, and NM) would have descended as soon as polls closed there and put it to rest. If I recall Florida took literally days to report in 2012, both from lovely vote suppression causing huge lines in Miami Dade until like 3AM, the race being really close there, and whatever system they use to count. Edit: You almost HAVE to win TX to get to 400 EVs, although winning SC, AZ AND IN would get you there, just barely. Zwabu fucked around with this message at 18:04 on Oct 10, 2016 |
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Oct 10, 2016 18:01
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They already are. The Rasmussen and the NBC/WSJ are, I believe, mostly post tape but pre debate.
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Oct 10, 2016 18:08
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Dr. Arbitrary posted:I think 538 updated because Senate just got a big boost. Yeah, I don't think there are specific state polls but the NBC/WSJ had specific questions about congressional preference and it was D+7.
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Oct 10, 2016 18:10
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It's amazing to me that "where's the beef", "you are no Jack Kennedy", "there you go again" and a dude checking his watch were considered big important debate events. They seem so... small, and tame, in this, the era of pussy grabbing, locking her up and checking out sex tapes.
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Oct 10, 2016 18:56
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Where is the L.A. Times/USC tracking poll? Bring it before me.
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Oct 10, 2016 21:03
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berserker posted:It's not just going to be Trump News. It's going to be TrumpTV, an all out entertainment/news/sports/cumshot blitz that will include the likes of Trump News (at primetime), Breitbart Opinion Hour, Infowars Panel Hour, A 4-hour block of crude reality TV including reruns of The Apprentice, probably some shows that are knock offs of Big Brother but more "graphic", Duck Dynasty, some B-rate competitor to the WWE for a few hours, maybe even some time for bringing back the fuckin' XFL. What about Vox Populi? Or Sybil the Soothsayer?
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Oct 10, 2016 21:14
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ImpAtom posted:It is genuinely disappointing that the debate has actually giving people an excuse to flip back around to Trump. No it's actually kind of hilarious.
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Oct 10, 2016 21:37
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The thing Trump was saying about "don't let anyone tell you you're doing fine, you're doing terrible" is not saying the people themselves are terrible. It's a "status quo is terrible you must vote for change candidate" thing. He deserves any horrible fate for stirring racist mobs for election day though.
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Oct 10, 2016 23:20
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fits my needs posted:What do you mean? The cops just shrugged and drove away. Isn't that what you would want to happen in that situation if nothing unlawful is happening? I think he was talking about the lying Trumpista being a sack of crap, not the cop.
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Oct 10, 2016 23:28
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Love this image: https://twitter.com/politico/status/785608388264726529
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Oct 10, 2016 23:35
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So the Loras poll in Wisconsin has Clinton up 8 but Feingold down 5?
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Oct 10, 2016 23:38
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| # ¿ May 9, 2024 11:52 |
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So, uh, I guess #TrumpDeathRally would be a little bit too on the nose for this election, eh? Also, Samantha Bee has been on fire these last several weeks, definitely go on YouTube and check out her Full Frontal channel: 
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Oct 11, 2016 16:48
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