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Ice Phisherman posted:My only hope is that if PJ is correct, that it goes further, smashes the GOP and we can have a total realignment. The GOP in a few years becomes a party that I could see myself voting for because they're no longer racist, sexist, homophobic, wealth hording or bedroom invading. Maybe they're a little lovely, but I'd no longer be trapped voting for democrats because they're not totally incompetent and abusive. Sup fellow poli sci degree haver. Been a rough year, huh? PJ seems to have the sociology and psychology of narcissism and mental illness down pat, sure, but predicting that the election turns into a full anti-GOP wave isn't exactly in her wheelhouse. Unfortunately Clinton's campaign itself has given a hand to the GOP in uncoupling itself from Trump and the media and the voters are too enthralled by the unravelling disaster to remember that one of the major parties in the country has committed massive electoral and moral malpractice by nominating an unprepared and unfit person. The country is incredibly polarized and we're going to see a lot of ticket splitting with Rs voting downballot. My only caveat/hope is that if Trump really falls to his 40% or below floor by election day, Rs will just stay home. Even then, the structural disadvantage in the House is too much to overcome. And the state GOPs are still doing strong and have control of multiple state legislatures, after all. Everyone in the GOP will pretend Trump never happened and they'll get away with it for now, until the demographic juggernaut eats them whole in the 2020s.
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Oct 1, 2016 10:19
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Zwabu posted:So what are examples of "twofer" states where Clinton campaign efforts both help her win a swing state and also help a close Senate race? Related to this I've seen a few people Arzying that the Clinton campaign is pulling out of Ohio and focusing on Florida and NC instead. Given that Ohio seems to be a demographical uphill battle and the Senate race looks like a lost cause, it makes far more sense to focus on Florida with its juicy 29 EV and minority population, and both have winnable Senate races. Ohio is not going to put her over 270, it's going to be a nice bonus prize like Florida was in 2012. In general terms having an election strategy that relies on swinging a set of states that are demographically close to each other is risky because you are basically putting all your eggs in one basket. VA and CO are where Clinton has the advantage by way of educated whites; NC by way of the black vote; and FL by way of the minority vote in general. Going full hog on Ohio means you are toast if the white vote shifts. Endorph posted:On the other hand, that guy is acknowledging that women like and enjoy sex. That's pretty progressive for the republican party. I wouldn't go that far. It's a Christian wife's duty to have sex with the husband and the husband is preventing her from doing her duty this way, forcing her to be unchristian.
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Oct 1, 2016 14:02
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canepazzo posted:This is definitely the best timeline. The entire Draper piece is worth a read. I used to think Trump would become a useful idiot for the GOP and just staff his WH with Republican policy flacks, but Hannity as CoS would... not be that.
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Oct 1, 2016 18:26
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iospace posted:If you thought that Trump would fill his cabinet with anything but his cronies, I don't know what to tell you other than you're dumb. The Senate still needs to confirm them. I definitely didn't expect Doctor Bornstein to become Secretary of Health and Human Services. I thought the machine would take advantage of his ineptitude and inexperience and "help" him populate the cabinet, just like he was obviously given a list of names he had never heard of to tweet as his SCOTUS picks. Campaigning is fun. Running an administration isn't.
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Oct 1, 2016 18:33
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The mic problem only impacted what people inside the hall heard. Also it only lasted for the first 20 minutes which are widely seen as his most successful part of the debate 
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Oct 1, 2016 21:20
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Only way for the VP debate to matter would be for Pence to have some kind of Trump-related outburst and/or decide to walk off the stage shouting "I've had enough of this poo poo!" In 2012 you had the Ryan plan so the VP mattered for the Serious People, in 2008 you had Palin obviously. This year it's ultra-conservative idiot vs. veteran Democratic politician. It'll be fine and no one will care.
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Oct 2, 2016 07:34
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To clarify it's the first page of a tax return from 1995. It already set the media on fire, imagine having all of it up to 2016? Luigi Thirty posted:You know how people are like "you can't just run Generic Democrat?" Tim Kaine is Generic Democrat. Yeah, Kaine getting any neutral-to-positive exposure should be a boon to the Democratic campaign since Clinton's unfavourables are still so steep.
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Oct 2, 2016 08:36
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Evil Fluffy posted:Here, have some good non-Trump news, if it wasn't posted and I missed it: I expect Alabama to quickly adopt an amendment to the state constitution removing a mandatory retirement age from the state supreme court. Note that in Alabama the state constitution gives the state legislature wide-ranging powers to meddle directly with certain (majority minority) counties, and for this reason it's the longest constitution in the world, because it's full of hundreds of tiny and very specific amendments to gently caress black people and their right to local democracy over.
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Oct 2, 2016 08:42
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I wonder how close the vetting for questions and questioners for the second debate is. Gallup ostensibly has a selection of undecided voters that the moderators will then screen and interview before being allowed on national television. My two worries are: 1) What kind of people will we find in the sample of undecideds, at this point? 2) How easy would it be for a determined alt-righter to make their way to the debate and ask an unscreened tin-foil conspiracy question or something amazingly rude from Clinton in an attempt to throw her off? The second one seems like a reach to me, but I hope they prepare for "audience member goes completely nuts" because you can't react to that the same way you can to Trump spouting nonsense. Hopefully unless Clinton responds in kind the story out of it would be "crazy person ruins debate", not "Clinton is taken by surprise by a man of the people."
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Oct 2, 2016 08:57
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ImpAtom posted:The questions are going to be screened enough that "Senator Clinton, why did you murder Vince Foster?" isn't going to get on. But they are not going to do a lie detector test on them and even if they did lie detectors are bullshit. I guess they make them sign some kind of contract and could sue them for a gazillion dollars if they ask something other than they said they would?
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Oct 2, 2016 09:05
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Literally Elvis posted:I thought this was a good article, but I reserve the right to be wrong. No, it's great! Two things struck me: how that West Virginia politician said the same lunatic things she did but didn't get committed like she did; and that among other things persuaded her that she must be right. It's this election in a nutshell, to be honest (including the misogynism in the different treatment of a man in power and a woman who is not powerful) - although it obviously puts more weight on "economic anxiety" than is warranted for the Trump voting population at large. And so you have a woman who was a victim of sexual harassment cheering for a sexual harasser. I just wish she'd gotten more help. Or maybe some things are beyond help.
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Oct 2, 2016 09:54
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Wow, Trump even further sold the wheeze by threatening to sue the NYT over publishing the story! Genius!
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Oct 2, 2016 14:19
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Even if Trump buckled down and prepared, you just can't cram all this public policy crap into your head like it's a pop quiz. You need multiple years of education and training to get the basics down and then for debate prep you practice the specifics of that election cycle. Clinton's going to know how foreign policy or tax policy works on the basic level, she just needs to come up with good lines and good answers that are relevant to 2016. Any college-educated goon who's read DnD for several years would be a better debater on policy after two week prep by a professional team of staffers than Trump. And as soon as he runs out of plausible sounding nonsense like NAFTA BAD! to spout on policy he's off to the races talking about blue skirts and Benghazi.
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Oct 2, 2016 15:08
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vyelkin posted:This is the only state that makes sense to feel the Johnson since they actually did elect him governor twice. Even then nearly a quarter of the vote seems way too high. I could buy 15. Gonna be interesting on Nov 9th.
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Oct 2, 2016 16:37
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Chriswizard posted:New York Times Insider piece on the tax returns: This is my new favourite thing in an election season of favourite things: quote:In a conversation there, Mr. Mitnick not only said that the records appeared to be authentic, he also solved the mystery of the digits that did not line up. It turned out that the tax preparation software he had used did not allow him to enter a loss of nine figures. So, he recalled, he had to manually enter the first two digits, using an IBM Selectric typewriter. Also whoever sent it was right on the money, a letter is a lot harder to trace than email, especially if you don't want the Feds to track you down for whatever you are doing. The IRS keeps all these things on file, right? So it could be an IRS employee.
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Oct 2, 2016 16:41
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Because he honestly thought that he'd get wide-spread respect for "resolving" the Birther issue. Also defusing the issue before the debate. That, uh. Didn't really work out for him. The only way to genuinely kill it as an effective attack on him would've been to give an apology. It would require the candidate to not be Donald Trump. They keep trying these derpy stratagems that require a different candidate.
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Oct 2, 2016 19:54
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Wikileaks October Surprise That Totally Exists Announcent cancelled due to "security concerns." Why does the media keep falling for this poo poo?
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Oct 2, 2016 20:14
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Crow Jane posted:Getting burned by a Mormon has got to be pretty rough. drat.  at the last one. I definitely feel like Joe will have a worthy successor.
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Oct 2, 2016 21:11
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Oxxidation posted:So is Robert Costa, like, capable of astral projection or something, because this guy's privy to a downright eerie amount of insider info. Costa worked at the National Review for a while and he's basically spent his entire early career cozying up to conservatives and learning how to speak their language. He's simply really good at what the does without having drunk the kool-aid himself. Shimrra Jamaane posted:I believe that a bunch were thrown out because they want to redo them to take into account this weekends bombshell. I really doubt it because polls aren't exactly cheap.
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Oct 3, 2016 05:46
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Here's a decent tracker that shows how the Brexit polls developed. They didn't nail it, but most polls were within MOE and loads of polls showed Leave ahead. It can't be called a polling miss and it drives me up the wall people, even smart people, have collectively decided that Brexit couldn't be seen coming. The people who couldn't see it coming were betting markets and pundits, not scientific polls. The lesson from Brexit and the Trump nomination are one and the same: just read the polls, and just the polls.
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Oct 3, 2016 12:00
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Behold, the oppo dump: "Donald Trump's real estate organization rented New York office space from 1998 to 2003 to an Iranian bank that U.S. authorities have linked to terrorist groups and Iran's nuclear program."
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Oct 3, 2016 12:23
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Harrow posted:There might be more, but also I could see people taking that badly. Probably not a big enough negative wave to counter the post-debate bump, but definitely enough to dominate online conversation for a while. Like, it plays perfectly into the whole "Clinton has people killed if they're a threat to her politically" narrative, and this time with a tiny, tiny drop of substance. Gonna go out on a limb and say no one cares except people who were never voting for her in the first place. It's not anywhere near weapons-grade.
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Oct 3, 2016 13:38
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WampaLord posted:She's been described as having a very dry sense of humor. You'd have to be literally Ted Rall to think she was serious about droning Assange. Yeah, when the fanfic is all "she didn't smile or laugh about it but kept going after people laughed" I realized they thought that was the smoking gun when keeping the joke going like that sounds completely in character for her.
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Oct 3, 2016 13:57
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Yes, Republicans, please spend as much money and time as you like on attacking Tim Kaine. Go ahead. I'm sure you'll persuade both of the voters who care.
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Oct 3, 2016 17:02
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She screwed up the timestamp, here's a direct link to the answer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_5kh-z4IXA&t=4036s
Sulphagnist fucked around with this message at 17:15 on Oct 3, 2016 |
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Oct 3, 2016 17:09
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She was probably watching it live which means the timestamp's going to be all over the place. I thought it might be 45 minutes before the end, which did have an answer on vet mental health but not the quote. Sopan hasn't written it up either. But I find it hard to believe an NYT reporter would just invent a Trump quote when you have so much real quotes to work with. Edit: oh did I miss it? Never mind then!
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Oct 3, 2016 17:14
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Bushiz posted:because they're not getting the help they need, whether through therapy or support structures in their relationships, confounded by a myriad of further mental images. Yeah, I think people are maybe jumping on it a bit optimistically because veterans are the one sacred cow even Trump's supporters still have. If he badmouths vets or, say, a Gold Star family, it's going to backfire on him worse than any corruption. It doesn't help that it's him saying it. It's very easy to interpret everything he says in the worst possible way because it's him saying it.
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Oct 3, 2016 17:20
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Spiritus Nox posted:It's not about people who already support Trump. I don't know why people keep saying this. It's about scaring off fence-sitters and reinvigorating dems. The Khan thing probably scared off some Trump supporters too. I wouldn't underestimate the weight of being seen besmirching ARE TROOPS. Biting into that 40-45% ceiling helps.
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Oct 3, 2016 17:41
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iospace posted:Slight shift to the side track of the anti-Kaine ad: Holy poo poo. That's some serious political judo if you throw it back like that. The inevitable response though will be "Why didn't you sue abortion clinics then?!"
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Oct 3, 2016 17:54
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The best part about Trump scandals and gaffes is that they sprout new ones as he tackles them.
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Oct 3, 2016 20:23
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Phone posted:Paris, France. That's the point - "Oh no, how can the French have gun crimes with their mighty gun control laws?!"
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Oct 3, 2016 20:27
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Spacebump posted:Donald wants to spread the word on his new website. This joke is the best they can do for an attack website?
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Oct 3, 2016 20:50
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I didn't think it was possible for this election to get better but there you go, the alt-right is eating itself.
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Oct 4, 2016 11:02
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Mr Interweb posted:If Trump actually tries to sue the NYT (I know he won't), would this mean more of his tax return info would be made public? Not before the election unless NYT has like some kind of extortionesque thing going on, "don't sue us or else", but there's this thing called discovery where both parties in a lawsuit can have the court demand information from the other party that's entered into evidence.
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Oct 4, 2016 12:22
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Old James posted:Couldn't he have just sat at a blackjack table and kept hitting till he lost it all? That sounds like it might jeopardize your gambling license instead of the much less serious charge of being an unlicensed lender. Mind you apparently NJ gambling licenses can be found in cereal boxes, so easy was it for Donald to run his casino empire despite having an entire warehouse of closets stuffed with skeletons.
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Oct 4, 2016 16:15
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Pence is a goober who only looks good in comparison to Trump. And I'm not sure how big of a morale boost you can get since I doubt most Trumpkins can even name the VP nominee (and I doubt most people who plan to vote Dem can name Kaine).
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Oct 4, 2016 18:04
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Shifty Pony posted:Speaker of the House is basically a Sacrificial Altar at this point. The GOP establishment ties a slightly past their prime member of the leadership to it with the hopes that tearing the unfortunate soul limb from limb will keep the Tea Party preoccupied enough to not attack the other members. http://www.theonion.com/article/blood-runs-down-house-representatives-walls-chambe-51526
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Oct 4, 2016 18:15
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Alec Bald Snatch posted:if the way he tried to correct the lady who asked him a question at matt lauer's shithow is any indication, the town hall debate won't do him many favors People keep having this mental image of Clinton as high-minded and snooty and having airs but Trump is going to end up finally interacting with regular people who haven't drunk the kool-aid and it might be genuinely troubling to him on a psychological level if he really believes the vast masses are on his side and turning up at his rallies. Beyond that, you can attack the moderator and dodge the questions but if he gets a question from a citizen and outright doesn't answer it or doesn't understand it his anti-establishment cred will start rubbing off. Trump has done ZERO old-fashioned retail politics. He's going to look incredibly out of touch. "Doesn't know how to use a scale at the grocery store" out of touch.
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Oct 4, 2016 20:15
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theflyingorc posted:he's nobody (conservative radio host out of charlotte) His feed isn't even that popular. USPOL is probably a good chunk of his readership there.
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Oct 4, 2016 20:50
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Maybe this debate will be the platform where the Sixth Amendment is rehabilitated from being the red-headed stepchild of all the amendments. Who am I kidding.
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Oct 4, 2016 21:32
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