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Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Continued from the previous thread:

Dicky mouse posted:

Remember prestors jane's predictions?

Are we getting close to him calling for open violence?

I asked PJ about this. Seeing as she's reliably predicted the arc of the election over and over again I thought I'd ask her what she thought a Trump loss would look like. When I asked her this was her prediction:

quote:

Between now and the election I expect Trump to be more Trump than ever, with a general trend of increasing Trumpiness. Last night was a huge deal for him, 100 million people watching him live. It should have been the single biggest dose of Supply he has ever gotten, but instead he was publicly laughed at and is enduring endless taunting and provocation from all angles. So imagine a hardcore addict that just scored the purest heroin ever only to have it stolen from him right before he got to shoot up and you can imagine the kind of over-riding outrage and roiling hatred that is consuming Donald right now. I imagine behind the scenes he is throwing toddler-like tantrums (shouting, swearing, tears of rage, violently destroying valuable possessions) that are probably pretty terrifying to his campaign staff.

So I expect that Trump has generally hit his peak and it is more or less downhill from here, barring some sort of unforseen development he will continue to sputter and lash out. By the time the election rolls around I expect that the American public will be so terrified/furious that this will turn into an anti-GOP election. People aren't going to vote for Hillary as much as they are going to vote against Trump. I expect that Trump will lose by a Goldwater-esque blowout, the Senate will flip Democrat, and the House will either narrow considerably or possible flip Democrat. (Only about a 30% of retaking the house at this point, so completely possible but not the most likely outcome.

Trump will handle this very badly and as a result the first three months post election are going to be one of the darker (but thankfully short lived) chapters of American history. Trump will challenge the authenticity of the results and I expect will attempt to incite his followers to violence, a call that will be echoed not only by the crazies in the militia movement but even some religious leaders and elected GOP officials. This will result in perhaps as many as a half dozen new Malheurs, hopefully all of which end with a minimum of tragedy. There will also be a massive uptick in hate crimes (already occurring, but going to get much worse( and probably enough acts of genuine right wing terror (mostly mass shootings and not-terribly-competent bombings) to force even the mainstream media to start talking about the serious problem of right wing extremism.

Once we get passed that first three months though things will calm down and some sort of normalcy will eventually begin to re-assert itself. Despite the massive compaction cycles we are seeing play out at present, there are only so many Narrativists and you lose a few Narrativists with every compaction cycle. (Say roughly for every 100 Narrativists that experience a compaction cycle, perhaps 3 or 4 will turn away from Narrativism) Right now we are experiencing a publicly visible rapid rise in relative Compaction levels (ongoing narrative convergence is driving many compaction cycles), and that makes things look terrible. But what is not so publicly obvious right now is that the total number of Narrativists is decreasing. Eventually there will simply be too few Narrativists to maintain the present narrative convergence. In short, desire how bad things look now, and despite how bad things are going to look in a little bit, there really is only so much fuel for this fire to consume, and it will eventually burn itself out. Once that happens the healing process will begin, and America will emerge from our collective identity crises as a stronger, more thoughtful people.

To me, a trained political scientist, this is a hard pill to swallow. The only thing that gets me to accept this as a possibility is that PJ has been reliably correct over and over again. I had no idea where this election was going or why it got where it was for months. We'd all just arrive at bizarre outcomes over and over again and the only person who I've found (so far and so far in the past) who has predicted the election with any degree of sustained accuracy has been PJ. I went back and read some of her earlier predictions. It seemed crazy at the time. The above seems crazy to me now, but not out of the question like I thought just a few months ago.

It's my belief that Trump is a mentally ill person who believes his own bullshit and has ridden a political wave to where he is now. If I accept PJ's prediction as true then enough crazy people are going to listen to Trump that if/when he loses that there are going to be sporadic acts of right wing terrorism. My original prediction was that time would be the greatest limiting factor as we're now just shy of a month away. While that might not mean a Mondale wipeout, him acting like a crazy person and inciting his followers to violence doesn't have such a strict time limit on it as people are still going to listen to him, though the remaining ones are going to grow increasingly angry and disconnected from reality as each event of violence leaves fewer and fewer of them.

The reason why I think it'll fizzle out in the end is that like TapTheForwardAssist said, people are mostly comfortable right now. They're going to be angry, but only the craziest true believers will do anything about it. The rest will just talk poo poo.

TapTheForwardAssist posted:

The economy is okay-ish, food prices are attainable, emergency medical care available, and broadly speaking a good chunk of the population are able to eat and have internet by one means or another. While individuals may exist with a perfect storm of "wife leaving me and taking the kids, got fired, out of funds and creditors calling, own guns, underlying mental issues, and I hate Hillary", the overall body of people are comfortable enough that they aren't going to risk it all stirring up serious poo poo. While you have some Bin Laden/Bundy folks who are willing to risk danger despite their privileged position, they're a pretty small cadre.

Overall just most Americans are vaguely comfortable enough that taking huge personal risk is unappealing compared to bitching, or are mentally unhinged enough to not be a competent threat. But boy howdy will they talk some poo poo.

If all of this happens as laid out though it means we're heading for a political realignment. Trump is the result (some may say end result, but I'm not convinced) of the GOP and the right feeding their voters a steady diet of fear, hate and paranoia for generations. Most politicians never believed this. Those that did were outliers. But their voters did, or at least enough of them. Dogwhistle racism is not only a way to be racist without being called one, but dogwhistling is also a training tool. It helps prepare for actual commands. Trump went from dogwhistle racism to actual racism and his followers are eating it up because "he tells it like it is" and "isn't afraid to be politically incorrect".

My only hope is that if PJ is correct, that it goes further, smashes the GOP and we can have a total realignment. The GOP in a few years becomes a party that I could see myself voting for because they're no longer racist, sexist, homophobic, wealth hording or bedroom invading. Maybe they're a little lovely, but I'd no longer be trapped voting for democrats because they're not totally incompetent and abusive.

Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 08:09 on Oct 1, 2016

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Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



JosefStalinator posted:

Sup fellow trained Poli Sci goon! (Grad student or are you a prof by now?)

Hey fellow PS goon. :)

Neither. Four year degree only. Didn't have the cash or the will to keep going. Bounced around for a few years at lovely jobs, read a lot of literature to stay current and keep my skills from rusting and I've lost 30 pounds in order to get into the military which was actually surprisingly easy when I developed the right methods. I figure if I'm alive and mentally in-tact by the end I'll be able to continue my education, stay in and make a career of it or both. It'll be weird as a 31 year old man entering with mostly teens and twenty-somethings, but whatever.

This is what graduating at the beginning of the great recession looked like for people like me unless they were well connected or lucky. I had the option to go into the military then but I wasn't ready for it. I also did not want to go to Iraq. When I got out it was from a middling-fair school with very little debt as costs for college hadn't skyrocketed yet (most of my debt came from the last year), but there were no jobs in my field and all of my internship opportunities at places I wanted to be went poof. A few years of not being able to get my foot in the door made my degree increasingly ornamental as even make-work jobs were difficult to get back then.

Hoping the military can help me get my life back on track, back into education and onto a path for success.

quote:

I agree with you - I think PJ has the psychology down, but overestimates his influence and ability to actually raise a stink post-election. Especially if Hillary wins by a convincing margin, there's no way Trump incites any violence beyond a very few nuts. Worst he'll do is not concede, maybe demand recounts, and cry foul while everyone laughs at how ridiculous his conspiracies are. It'll help delegitimize Hillary, like the birther movement did Obama, but it won't do much more than that.

There was a good article someone posted in the last iteration of the thread, that noted that while we might not see a real change in the party system or realignment in that sense, we might see a policy realignment as Dems adopt free trade and policies that benefit minorities and wealthy/educated urban city dwellers, while the Republicans persist in the rural areas (south and midwest), fighting between the two for the suburbs and exurbs.

Anyone predicting the demise of the GOP is just wrong. All it takes is one recession, one major fuckup by Hillary or the Dems, or one dogwhistler who can control himself and sell himself as a center-right moderate (like W did) and the Republicans will be back in charge. They've got the house on lockdown until at least 2022, and will probably do well enough in 2020 to maintain their gerrymandered advantage.

I agree in part, but you don't need a ton of people to initiate domestic terrorism. You just need a hard knot of true believers who are armed, crazy and ready to act. There won't be armed insurrections. There probably will be sporadic, armed violence in this scenario. Not organized revolt. Or if it is organized it will be small and around other demagogue types.

I don't think the GOP will die. If that happens poo poo is way worse than any of us anticipated. I do think that the GOP will win in 2020, or come very close. People will remember how loving awful this election was and will run someone with a winning smile and be as boring as possible or the tea party folks will double down on someone Trump-like and it's nutballs all over again, though toned down enough that the suburbs will vote for that person. My bet is on Cruz in that case.

Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 08:37 on Oct 1, 2016

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



berserker posted:

This thread title is garbage, we were promised Prester Jane vindication

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Roland Jones posted:

I might just be optimistic, but I'm feeling like Hillary's going to get two terms. I mean, the Republicans might learn their lesson here, but you'd have thought they'd do that in 2012, and instead we got Trump. Their big positions like opposition to gay marriage, drugs, trans people's existence, and abortion are only going to get more unpopular in the meantime, too, particularly with fuckups like McCrory doing their thing and screwing over their states. If they don't ditch the albatross of social conservatism they shouldn't be able to recover any time soon, and with things like Mylan and insulin providers killing people for profit economic conservatism isn't doing too hot either. They need to reform or at least realign, and with the religious right and other social conservatives making up a sizable portion of their base that might not be possible. Also, four years of Hillary, coming after her saving the country from having to exist under Donald Trump, will hopefully show people that she's not that bad, at least compared to the alternative.

And, well, like you say, people will remember this election. They'll remember the racism, the sexism, the hate crimes, the insults aimed at veterans, the gently caress ups, things like Trump's deal with Cuba. And they'll remember that the Republicans endorsed it all, letting it all happen and frequently outright defending it. That should result in a lasting shift for at least some people, I think.

I think people will remember it, but also remember that poor whites are shrinking by about 1% a year currently. In four years the republicans may not be able to win the white house with the numbers they have. In 2024 they may not be able to win the presidency at all and will only be relevant at the state and local level until they bring in some new blood.

To put that in perspective when GWB won in 2000 he had roughly 16% more votes as a baseline. The republicans are not replenishing their numbers and instead losing further numbers by driving minority voters not only away but to the democrats, damaging themselves twice as hard. It's like that the party found out they're bleeding and instead of patching it decides to cut themselves more and deeper.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Antti posted:

Sup fellow poli sci degree haver. Been a rough year, huh?

More like a rough five years. Thankfully things are looking up. Now that the recession is over (for now) it's easier to dig myself out of my hole.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



lozzle posted:

...Pat Robertson is still alive?

A lich is bound to this earth so long as its phylactery remains in-tact.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Lightning Knight posted:

Lmao oh yeah, "boycott sex against your liberal wives," as if your wife would want to sleep with you after pulling a stunt like that.

Actually any woman who would be able to live with a husband with that kind of sheer gulf in opinion and worldview is living on a whole other plane of existence in tolerance from me, so... :psyduck:

Story time. I have some old Southern anecdotes about just this thing.

Back in the day when polling was still relatively new everyone's phones were land lines and were probably the only one in the house. The couple is off for the day and maybe about to have dinner. The phone rings. She picks it up. He asks who it is. It's a pollster.

So in Southern states the important polls weren't the elections, they were the primaries. These states were almost always one party states and so who you chose at the primary was important because the party you voted for was right leaning or you threw your vote away.

So the lady of the house begins to answer the questions, but when it comes down to who she voted for she would lie in order to keep the house domestically tranquil. He was voting for X, she wanted to vote for Y but said she was voting for X. The husband is happy and the polls weren't reliable because of married women.

It's possible you may see a repeat of that here. A weak one to be sure, but a lot of these poor white houses are male lead. Figuring out that your wife is going to vote Hillary could make your Trump voting husband fly off the handle.

Anyway, this isn't about "adjusting the polls" because I doubt it'll be over half a percent for women or maybe so small as not to be measured, but some women do lie about who they're voting for in order to keep the peace around the house rather than debate their husbands.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



cant cook creole bream posted:

Most insane conspiracy theory I have heard all year.

The woman who was on stage debating Trump was not even Hillary at all. It was another body double.


I felt sick reading that. It's the stupidest opinion I could possibly imagine. An actress who can convince millions of people to be a well known public figure for several hours while also memorizing countless political facts, keeping her calm around Donnie and baiting him so much, would be by far the most competent person alive.

I absolutely lost all political respect from the person who told me that. Like I can't even argue anything anymore. If he is so far down the hole, nothing I could ever say to him would make the slightest dent into his convictions.

I've read countless political articles and tweets and sometimes even their comment sections. But the stupidest conspiracy came from a personal friend. He's not even an uneducated blue collar worker. We recently got out college degrees.
I kind of hate him now. :smith:

I had the same feeling about a friend of mine until recently. I was relieved when he told me that he's not paying attention to the election because it was stressing him out.

Still going to collect the hundred buck bet at the end of the election, but I'll take his family out to a restaurant or something and do my best not to gloat. :unsmith:

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Noam Chomsky posted:

Plenty of people who have knowledge of the modern GOP, their base, and Trump have predicted how this election cycle would go. It shouldn't surprise anyone who isn't delusional. PJ, for whatever reason, is just taken more seriously than anyone else.

I believe Chris Hedges even has a couple articles from years ago predicting someone like Trump coming along. I really like PJ's posts but let's not pretend she's the only one who's been predicting Trump and what would happen this cycle.

Sorry if I wasn't more clear. I wasn't saying PJ is the only one, I just said she was the only one who I read who'd been predicting events with anything approaching accuracy. When I really started really paying attention people in the media had given up proclaiming the end of his political career after they were wrong half a dozen times.

If you have those articles to share I'd be appreciative though. Could you provide a link please?

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Noam Chomsky posted:

I will have to search for the articles I was talking about but here is a newer one that speaks to the same things PJ writes about : http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/the_revenge_of_the_lower_classes_and_the_rise_of_american_fascism_20160302

Thanks buddy. I'll give it a read. :)

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



So I think Hillary and her staff finally figured out a way to damage him in a credible way. We're past nothing matters now. Sure it doesn't matter as much because it'd sink any other politician, but all of this is hurting him.

My guess is that they figured out Trump's weaknesses and are attacking him directly. His campaign is essentially just one person as he doesn't take advice from others or at least not for very long. He can be predictably baited into stupid actions. The people that are campaigning for him- The Christies and Julianis and such have no leadership because their leader is just so incredibly inconstant. So instead of having a clear message they lie because it's really the only avenue left for them.

I think that the Clinton campaign is trying to degrade his ability to sleep and baiting him into rages where he injures himself. Those rages prevent him from sleeping. It's well known that he wasn't getting much before, but if he's furiously tweeting when he should be sleeping he's going to make serious mistakes as he continues to speak off the cuff. Further, Hillary Clinton initiated another Khan-like attack at Trump and he just goes nuts and won't release that bone which destroys his credibility even further with Hispanic people and women.

I think the strategy is to degrade and demoralize him for the next debate. He'll walk into it with two weeks of an increased and previously ongoing sleep deficit while Hillary will be fresh and rested. He'll have a few talking points that he'll make early on but all of that lack of rest is going to get to him. He's going to fall into predictable holes that he's dug for himself like talking about infidelity and she having prepared for that will shovel dirt onto him after he trips into those rhetorical holes.

Not only that, but the debate has to do with foreign policy. He can't study if he can't sleep and he already has a predisposition against learning. He can't stuff enough information into that withered cortex of his in two weeks even if he was fully rested and attentive because he refuses to learn anything. He might be able to trot out some talking points but my guess is that he'll lose his way even faster than last time. He'll grow furious and make amazing mistakes or just ramble like the crazy, sleep deprived out of touch idiot he is.

Plus now that the election cycle has kicked into overdrive Trump can't just let the news cool down anymore. He can't hide behind other republicans at a debate anymore. People are looking at him critically and there's so much poo poo and it's all over him.

And everyone who he leads doesn't know what's going on. They're just covering for a crazy person and hoping they can salvage their careers.

Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 03:49 on Oct 2, 2016

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Guy Goodbody posted:

Why are you guys calling this an October Surprise? Yesterday we find out Trump was in a porno, this tax stuff comes out today. We're two days into a Trump news advent calendar

You want me to read this thread while eating novelty chocolates. Trump advent calendar is the best advent calendar.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



TyrantWD posted:

Tonight's debate will be a good barometer of how competent the Hillary campaign is.

Pence is a trained, disciplined politician who is going to come out swinging, armed with all the attacks Ailes and Bannon have ever fantasized about delivering. If the campaign has drilled Kaine well enough to turn the tables on a berserking Pence, I'll be a lot more confident in their ability to see out the next 5 weeks. On the other hand, if we see Kaine spend the entire night defending attacks on Hillary, the media narrative will flip, and the Trump campaign halts its death spiral when they aren't playing defense.

Unless one of them fucks up in some spectacular way no one will give a drat. The VP spot is perhaps the least important spot in government. Teddy Roosevelt called it "The broom closet of history" and if his predecessor wasn't assassinated that's where he'd be.

No one cares.

Pence is also not particularly disciplined or talented. Hoosiers hated his rear end for what he did to their state. They went from a moderate business style republican who largely rejected identity politics to Pence who made their state a laughing stock and shrank the tax base with his lovely tea party ideals. He was looking at getting primaried and if he didn't move upwards he'd have been moved out. He was not getting reelected as governor and Hoosiers wouldn't accept him for any other important position.

Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 17:33 on Oct 4, 2016

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



remusclaw posted:

If Trump managed to lower expectations so much that 4 years from now, a conventionally terrible republican has a shot solely on the basis that he isn't Trump, things could get ugly. But demographics should likely do a decent job of protecting us from that, as while the white male conservative voters will forgive and forget, minority groups and women will not, and they will be even stronger than they are now as a voting bloc.

That's not to say you are wrong. Pence likely comes out of this with a better look than he had going in, though I wouldn't necessarily bet on it. Trump seems to be a career killer for Republicans, and I would have sworn Cruz was getting out of this cycle smelling like roses as compared to the rest of the party and he basically committed suicide by endorsement.

You have to realize that if absolutely everyone endorses Trump it doesn't matter. At least among republicans they won't be able to point to their fellow and say, "I didn't endorse Trump, but he did". Kasich is the only moderately sized name out there left that rejected Trump. By forcing Cruz to kiss the ring they take a powerful moral card out of his hands come 2020 if Trump loses because his specter will remain.

In short, Cruz was both made to concede to back the party and humiliated by endorsing him in order to spike his wheel in 2020. Or at least that's my guess. His disgrace was thorough.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset




Please. Please poo poo all over the person who you hired to make you look sane by proximity.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Covok posted:

Half an hour, not a full hour.

If Trump tries a civil war, it'd last 4-5 hours. Not a single state government supports him and no matter how armed his supporters are they can't beat the American army.

I don't know if he's rational enough to care or even realize this. What you would have would be a rash of mostly crazy people with guns for a few months or in small cases have small bands of previously organized people committing acts of terrorism.

I'd give it three months before poo poo finally calms down.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Trump is going to do better in a town hall format. Part of the reason for that is that he can't go much lower than he did before, but also the format really does play to his strengths and Hillary's weaknesses.

The questions are still highly managed. The debate is still a stage and those vying for political power are actors. You don't get to ask any question you want.

quote:

- None of the audience members are going to be asking questions about GDP growth rates, specific foreign policy info, or criminal justice stats.

Those are boring save to special interest groups, statisticians and policy wonks save for extreme examples. No one is going to talk about that.

quote:

- None of them are allowed to ask follow-up questions.

If I recall correctly being allowed to do something and doing it anyway is something that happens and has happened before in this case. Also there are ways around it by embarrassing your opponent into elaborating further.

quote:

- They are "undecided voters" from Missouri. Probably disproportionately terrible people.

That's a broad brush you're painting with. Careful you don't get any paint on you.

quote:

- Hillary doesn't do personal connections or braggadocio well.

Hillary does well in small settings so you may be surprised. As for braggadocio (had to look that up) she's not especially arrogant or a braggart in public. It's one of the ways that being a woman works against her. Being passionate or showing ones' feelings as a woman can have all sorts of negative connotations.

quote:

I just don't see how he could do worse than he did in the first debate.

Trump is excellent at shattering our expectations. Sadly it's almost always in a negative way. He has no teleprompter. He's going to be off script for ninety minutes. He's not good at answering specific questions about policy because he has no policy. He doesn't have answers about specific topics that a politician should because he doesn't have those answers, but makes it up anyway in a way that falls to pieces under the faintest hint of scrutiny. Often he makes policy up on the fly from reading the room in an incredibly hamfisted way.

He's at a serious disadvantage. The news cycle has not been kind to him because his tax returns were released and he didn't release any returns to counteract them people assume that it's worse. His one qualification that he ran on for president is that he's a businessman and it looks like he's a terrible one. Then there were a slough of shady business dealings that came out to reinforce the narrative that he's corrupt, greedy and a law breaker.

He's telegraphed that the odds are good he's going to talk about Bill Clinton's infidelity. Hillary has been getting poo poo about her husband's infidelity for what...Thirty? Forty years? She will dunk all over him seeing as he's cheated on his spouses before and cheated with married women and bragged about it and at the end of it all he'll be victim shaming as Hillary is not an extension of her husband.

Hillary is preparing to needle him into another rage. The last rage lasted for over a week. It's a month until the election. He can't afford another. Third debate or not if he loses this one he is loving toast and if the scuttlebutt I've been reading lately is true the republicans may just cut him loose if he shits the bed again and his negatives rise even higher. He raises no money save for himself, he doesn't spend that money but instead pockets large quantities of it, he doesn't campaign for other politicians, he has no get out the vote campaign and overall has been a drain on RNC finances. The republican politicians have no loyalty to this man because he's basically a usurper. His campaign strategy is to work the media and 100% leech off existing campaign infrastructure.

I'm not sure what the number is in the polls, but at some point the republicans are going to take their chances and dump him. Maybe quietly, but they will all the same. He's completely reliant on them for their resources and in order to save the house and especially the senate they may just divert all resources away from him.

So I suppose we'll see. If we see a repeat of the last debate I call that the republicans quietly cut him loose and hope no one questions them about it.

Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 15:03 on Oct 7, 2016

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Also for all of you Arzys out there Hillary looks like she may break 80% on the polls only forecast. Possibly by the end of the day. Currently she's at 79.3%.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Phone posted:

Go outside and tell me what color the sky is.

It's purple and I'm made of jello. Your move. :colbert:

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Night10194 posted:

I can empathize with worrying about a really important event even if it's very likely to go well. I don't think the guy's trolling, just nervous. I mean, look how nervous we were before the first one. You even mentioned you feared the real possibility of 'vallium trump'.

Knowing she stomped him the first time and that he's a dumbass who can't conceive of the idea that a woman could be better than him at anything soothes a lot of the worry, though.

I'll cop to this. I was so anxious I couldn't even watch the debate. I read about it in real time but I was so nervous that watching him hosed with me. Also listening to his voice (when he yells) just sets my teeth on edge. If I do it for too long when he's yelling I feeling that fight/flight/freeze response rising.

Phone posted:

C-c-correct.

10 points to Gryffindor.

Hahahaha

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



FactsAreUseless posted:

He won the debate, and Clinton sobbed and yelled "Allah, why have you forsaken me" and then Trump held up his golden shield of truth and she was forced from the stage.

Her suicide bomb vest didn't even work. Low kinetic energy. Sad!

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Phone posted:

But what about all of the unpaid staff that Trump has?

Some stayed, some were promised pay and left.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



What in the actual gently caress is with this loving election? Mainstream candidate is describing and has a history of sexual assault and no one out of the clowncar of fifteen other republicans could do better than him?

Trump is going to get loving wrecked in the debate. A woman is going to ask him if he thinks that his comments were appropriate and ask him for an apology. He'll blame other people for his comment and then never apologize because he seems to be incapable of apologizing for anything. Hillary will chaos dunk on him. She will loving wreck him and republican women and independents will abandon him and also turn out the democratic women's vote.

Trump is a mess.

Trump is a waste.

I want to travel into the future and get my hands on the postmortem. Not so I can read it mind you. Just so I can roll and smoke it. Or maybe mainline that poo poo. Trump has become fictional satire that walks, and he is so much larger and dumber than life that writers will have a hard time making anyone like him believable.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset




This is fine.

Mighty fine work. Did you make this pixel art masterpiece?

Trumpster fire.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



awesmoe posted:

Just FYI, the questions have to be candidate-agnostic - they could be asked of either candidate. So you're not going to get "why arent you in jail for emails" and you're not going to get "how many times have you taken them furniture shopping"

It's going to get worked in. It may not be perfect, but it is going to get worked in. Why else would it be released three days before the debate right as people are getting home on the east coast?

I get that it has to be candidate agnostic, but this is literally Trump actually tripping over his dick. It's not just figurative anymore. His dick done got him in trouble not four months after he married his current wife he was already trying to cheat on her.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Shifty Pony posted:

Similar to how the crew on an airplane from which a wing just fell off is in damage control mode I'm sure.

Everything is on fire.

This is some pro tier ratfucking. Magnifique.

A friend of mine bet me a hundred dollars that Trump would win months ago. I offered him for the second time just to buy a pizza and split it. He still refused. At this point it isn't even fair and he's sticking to his guns. That Trump can pull up out of sexual assault.

poo poo matters.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Bip Roberts posted:

These are not "dirty tricks". This is normal oppo research.

I guess I misused the term.

Still feels good to say though.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



CapnAndy posted:

He already did that one though, didn't he? Bragging he could literally shoot a dude and not lose votes.

Or that republicans have no choice but to vote for him.

I guess they just have to lie down and take it.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Endorph posted:

i made a $50 bet with my sister about the election and she texted me after the debate going 'welp'

I'm pretty sure she's just gonna hand me the money when I see her next week.

Spend it on freedom. Or rent. Whatever is the most free.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Whatever libtards. Trump is a baby Christian. He shook hands with a few and didn't immediately wash his hands afterward. Be hosed, atheist Muslims. :smug:

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset




Seen here, one of five black people to vote for Trump. The rest were still fitting skin suits onto their lizard bodies.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Mouth has been hanging open for the last thirty minutes more often than not.

I'm not loving drunk enough for this.

I don't think I'll ever be drunk enough for this.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Islam is the Lite Rock FM posted:

Welcome to the world of the Evangelical right.

Also I'm enjoying this.

Actually I'm seriously wondering what evangelicals are thinking right now. He sure is coveting those wives.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Sensible Thursday posted:

Meanwhile at /r/the_donald:



Yeah. I know. Absolutely no talk about it. I checked hot/new/top and there was nothing. I think the mods are swatting it down because it's too toxic to spin even in The Donald.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Paul MaudDib posted:

Oh hey I'm 90 pages behind, let's see what's up -

*Trump campaign self-destructing in real time, Republicans pulling funding out and focusing downticket, etc*

Well I guess the Clinton campaign finally decided to drop their oppo-research bomb :stare:

I'm wondering if the House is in play at this point. Either way tomorrow's going to be quite the show.

Actually I have a pet theory that it was early Bush election opposition research as Bobby Bush is right there, he'd know about the conversation and would know where and how to get that information. The Bushes planned to use it to destroy Trump if it came down to Jeb and him and then nothing happened. They then fed it to the media because they hate Trump and think he's dangerous. The Bushes can work with the Clintons and do have an ongoing cordial relationship with them. They won't work with Trump and fear him getting anywhere near the levers of power.

So to me it screams republican primary oppo-research. I imagine favors exchanged. Or it was just dropped off anonymously in order not to play into the narrative of the republican party elites sabotaging the Trump campaign in order to keep the republican party from eating their own in the frenzy of blame.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



All right, so I don't want to read 100 pages of this thread. I just want to know if I've missed anything:

1. Donald Trump got outed on a live mic as a pervert and general victimizer of women.
2. Most but not all Republicans are running as hard as they can away from him, denouncing him, telling him to drop out, what have you.
3. Donald looks like he won't drop out.
4. Debate is coming up tomorrow. Shockwaves from the chaos dunk will be felt nationwide.
5. The Russians have finally been accused by the DHS of hacking voting systems.
6. The Russians responded poorly to this and have ramped up tensions.

Anything else that I'm missing specifically?

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



JosefStalinator posted:

The day he falls behind in the LA times poll is the day he truly loses.

Keep in mind that Hillary was at 81% now. The polls shouldn't reflect anything for at least another five days. Then the debate. You could see him dip into single digits for winning. Low single digits.

400+ EV presidential/congressional blowout is possible if republicans stay home.

edit:

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

The GOP is moving money away from Donnie's campaign and into salvaging the downticket races, and Pence is telling the rumor mill he's thinking of dropping out, presumably to salvage his hopes of a 2020 run

Thanks buddy. You're a great poster by the by and I often enjoy reading your posts. :)

Question: That Trump is thinking of dropping out or Pence?

Also, if the money dries up and Donald has nothing left to skim from the RNC, what do you think the chances are that he points the finger at them? I'm not sure if a law and order candidate should encourage red on red violence. :colbert:

Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 09:28 on Oct 9, 2016

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Antti posted:

The UN Commissioner of Human Rights spoke about how awful Trump is and Russia lost its poo poo over that too.

Missed this. Oh poo poo. Isn't that the new one too?

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



sebmojo posted:

I thought blog Adams and strip Adams were pretty well segmented- what strips are you talking about?

Elbonia's tech sector, while backwards and forever in the mud (literally they are eastern european looking bearded tall hatted mud people), is still able to rig the US election system with nothing but a two tin can wired internet connection. (Not really)

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Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



greatn posted:

Will... will his surrogate actually do this? Where do their loyalties lie? They will have no career after this.

Maybe the true believers will.

Other rats will have sensed the fire and will flee the rotting carcass that was once the good ship Reagan. The cold, unforgiving ocean is more appealing than the Trumpster fire.

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