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BarbarianElephant posted:Why would Bloomberg have got any votes at all? Only New Yorkers know who he is, and they aren't too positive about him either. He's too liberal for the Republicans and too conservative for the Democrats. If what is happening with Corbyn in the UK is any guide the media would overwhelmingly back Bloomberg as would a significant chunk of the DNC. This probably wouldn't actually make Bloomberg that popular but it would have undermined Sanders' chances against Trump.
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Nov 1, 2016 18:11
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Silver's clickbait stuff is probably him just hedging his bets for after the election. Polling does seem to be getting less reliable with the British general election last year and the Spanish general election this year having right wing parties doing considerably better than the polls suggested they would. Consequently the reputation of pollsters have taken a significant hit. If the polling is accurate his model reflects that still and he can remain as Wizard Nate. If the polling is inaccurate then he can point to his clickbait articles and say he had more vision and awareness than other pollsters or pundits and stay as Wizard Nate.
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Nov 1, 2016 19:51
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Has a there ever actually been a case of a plausible controversial tweet being blamed on hacking actually being proven to be true? Sure, sometimes politicians' accounts are hacked but they always seem to say something outlandish or very obviously fake.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:02
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Charlz Guybon posted:Some bad polls came out? We're going to lose Oregon. It's over. turn it up TURN ME ON posted:Oh nooooo
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Nov 1, 2016 23:21
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JVNO posted:Wasn't the large wave of McCain/Romney tox bans responsible for the leftward shift in the SA forums? I quite remember the forums culture being a lot more centrist/right leaning in the mid 2000s. LF and the financial crisis were probably bigger reasons for the leftward shift.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:32
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Mel Mudkiper posted:I mean one of the clearest signs that Nate's model might be over-estimating uncertainty is that his model is an outlier of all the other aggregates. Even Sam Wang's very high 99% is still matched by two other pollsters. OTOH Nate is a Wizard.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:36
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Stereotype posted:The only state where democrats are underperforming their 2012 numbers is Georgia. The rest are solidly better for Clinton. Yeah, especially with the threat of violence from Trump supporters on election day, that could be a strong motivation to vote early when you don't usually.
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Nov 2, 2016 10:57
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Radish posted:Eh he's still saying stuff like "they should cancel the election and just give it to me" and whatever. It's just that EMAILS are always what the media will talk about combined with the slow horror that his base doesn't care about anything so he can say whatever he wants. I'm guessing if he got in another twitter war with a disabled vet or something it wouldn't really register now that everyone is inured to it all. Heck the KKK have formally endorsed Trump and it has barely raised a shrug from the media.
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Nov 2, 2016 12:44
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Northjayhawk posted:Especially because they probably had insurance. The first $1,000 or whatever may have paid for the deductible, but after that, if you are donating to the NC GOP, you are doing it because you want to help them win the election. The best part of this was donors, when asked why not donate to more worthy causes, explaining they don't have enough money to donate to more than one group, so they chose the NC GOP.
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Nov 2, 2016 17:09
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WampaLord posted:Nevada is always hard to poll, it usually looks like it's polling R and then ends up going D on election day. The main factor is the high amount of Latin@ voters. Do Mormons factor into that difficulty too? I seem to remember reading UT was also very difficult to poll.
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Nov 2, 2016 17:13
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Northjayhawk posted:I would have thought Mormons are easy to poll. Though, maybe thats the problem. Maybe its hard not to oversample when they are always home and happy to talk to you. Yeah, I think I must be mis-remembering Utah being difficult to poll.
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Nov 2, 2016 17:28
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Clinton's biggest barrier to re-election in 2020 would probably be the recession we're likely to see in the next four years, given the number of economic crisis bubbling in the background. It probably wouldn't be blamed so much on her as the Democrats in general because they've held the Whitehouse for 12 years and "they said they'd fix this!" In which case selecting a different Democratic candidate wouldn't do much.
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Nov 2, 2016 22:03
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:He could be fired. It's a ten-year "term limit" but it's not "you get this job for ten years" kind of gig; but I don't think she can fire him for other reasons -- namely the optics of it would be pretty loving terrible. I think you're right about Clinton but I think Obama could probably get away with doing it in the dying days of his presidency if Clinton wins. Also I agree with the optics being bad for firing him but Obama also hired the guy for the good optics of being bi-partisan so he might not be too bothered about optics at this point.
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Nov 2, 2016 22:15
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Donkwich posted:I don't think Sanders would be doing significantly worse than Clinton this election, the main problem is that idiot Weaver would be running his campaign. Eh, he'd also be facing a third party Bloomberg who'd be backed by a significant chunk of the DNC.
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Nov 2, 2016 22:18
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chumbler posted:God I want to know how they're going to try to spin this. The majority of the media will probably ignore it, they're happily ignoring Trump's Klan endorsement after all, so there won't be any need to spin it.
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Nov 2, 2016 22:21
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Crows Turn Off posted:Is this the start of Nothingburgergate?! Or just a lobbyist for Diddlydog.
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Nov 2, 2016 22:45
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Silver being less confident in a Clinton victory doesn't seem that unreasonable when there has been at least a couple of notable cases (Britain 2015, Spain 2016) where right wing parties did a lot better than their polling would suggest. Iceland also had something similar happen over the weekend. Now of course those countries are very different from America and the quality of polling in at least Britain is considerably worse. But it isn't unreasonable for Silver to account for the possibility that as polling becomes more difficult there could be a generalised trend of right wing parties underperforming in polls. Especially with the Presidential race where there is less historical data to rely on. I certainly hope Wang's model is the correct one but I don't think Silver's model is that out of line.
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Nov 3, 2016 10:28
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Nessus posted:Mitt Romney would have probably been a less stupid George W. Bush. This guy is endorsed by the Klan. I also think people are kind of despairing because of all the nastiness just across the board. Plus given how awful Trump is it is scary Clinton isn't winning by double digits. Sure there are very good reasons why she isn't but it is still scary.
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Nov 3, 2016 10:58
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canepazzo posted:Only vaguely related to USpol, but I wonder if the Supreme Court ruling on brexit / article 50 in the UK (the parliament must vote on the process before the process of leaving the EU can start) is gonna have an effect - it's a big defeat (tho they will still likely go through with it) for the Leave party, and Trump claiming he's gonna do ten times a Brexit or whatever retarded poo poo he was talking about could backfire. I doubt it will have any effect. None of the impacts of it will be felt within the next few days, most people simply don't care about British constitutional issues. Heck if anything it might strengthen Trumps' hand in saying the elites want to deny the will of (white) people the world over so they have to stop Clinton appointing any Supreme Court Justices.
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Nov 3, 2016 11:32
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Geostomp posted:Since that British islands did not fall into the sea the week after Brexit, all the angry white people here saw was their nationist dream. It is kind of amazing how even moderate British voices are saying that all the warnings about Brexit were wrong when metaphorically we've only managed to successfully get the plane into the air that we're going to jump out of without a parachute. Nessus posted:This baffled me momentarily, I don't think SCOTUS gets to rule on the foolishness of Englishmen... we had that ruling in 1776 and stare decisis and all that. What happened here, is Brexit going to get cancelled? No, Brexit may well still happen but what has been prevented is the Prime Minister being able to begin the unstoppable process of leaving the EU (once article 50 is invoked there's two years for negotiation and then you're out) without consulting the legislature and winning a vote on it. This hopefully means the PM can't just continue her strategy of saying "we're going to get the best Brexit and we have the best people working on it." without addressing any of the actual issues or giving any kind of explanation of what Britain outside of the EU will look like.
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Nov 3, 2016 11:44
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Ah correction: The High Court has ruled Parliament has to have a vote on invoking article 50. The government is now appealing to the (British) Supreme Court.
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Nov 3, 2016 11:48
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Cingulate posted:How do you know they're Black Americans? Do they get really pronounced AAVE pronunciation? Or someone who thinks Blacks Rule.
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Nov 3, 2016 13:57
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Does anyone have a link to that 2012 video of Romney's private jet arriving while The Theme of the Common Man plays? I wanted to relive a happy memory from elections past but I can't find it.
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Nov 3, 2016 16:00
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Great! Thanks for finding it.
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Nov 3, 2016 16:05
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Saguaro Strategy don't even have a grade on 538.
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Nov 3, 2016 16:35
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Ze Pollack posted:Miss calling the primaries real bad, try to drive up traffic to your failing site with higher-volatility models, be out of a job in January 2017? February 2017: Harry Enten's 538. More seriously though, given ESPN's dire financial situation it wouldn't be surprising if 538 gets canned after the election regardless of how accurately they predict the election.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:18
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greatn posted:I don't think Nate is a pollster, but I do think his model should incorporate early voting as a sanity check on the polls it uses. With the exception of Nevada isn't it quite hard to draw any conclusions from early voting?
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Nov 3, 2016 18:29
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PT6A posted:It's not like him to not be the worst rear end in a top hat in all the world... something foul's clearly afoot. Probably trying to avoid the "inevitable in four years" label that worked out so well for Ryan, Rubio and Jeb!.
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Nov 3, 2016 18:57
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Feral Integral posted:If you're not in STEM you probably can't even put bread on the table Don't people in STEM have robots to serve their food for them?
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Nov 3, 2016 19:11
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Apraxin posted:Oh, Jesus Christ. We can probably expect an announcement about the emails on November 7th then.
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Nov 3, 2016 19:30
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WeAreTheRomans posted:Young'uns don't know about COINTELPRO The Dollop, which is a pretty great podcast did an episode about COINTELPRO recently. It is well worth a listen: http://thedollop.libsyn.com/214-black-panther-fred-hampton
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Nov 3, 2016 20:14
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DaveWoo posted:Here, have an anti-Arzy CO poll C Grade on 538 though sadly.
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Nov 3, 2016 21:17
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Samuel Clemens posted:In 2020, every decent pollster will be working for one of the campaigns, leaving us with the LA Times tracking poll and Rasmussen. Nate Silver will replace his current model with one that unskews clicker polls.
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Nov 3, 2016 21:38
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Covok posted:What are the chances the Republicans bring back super delgates to push out Trump supporters after this election? The big problem for them with that is that after the sexual assault video scandal the base sided heavily with Trump against the establishment. The base will be very unhappy if they think the leadership is trying to disempower them. Especially if Trump loses, in which case the RNC is almost certain to be the target of a stabbed in the back myth.
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Nov 3, 2016 21:50
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Who What Now posted:Games like Gears of War, God of War, all the CoD's, Mass Effect, Dragon Age, the Uncharted series, and more all star dudes that appear to be in their mid to late 30s. In Mass Effect humans live much longer so technically Shepard is too young to be middle aged. 
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Nov 3, 2016 22:09
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Mc Do Well posted:I believe it - she was in the White House when the Away Team returned home - probably got an interesting briefing. What was the Away Team?
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Nov 3, 2016 22:12
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Sinners Sandwich posted:Don't forget the focus on having more paternal charecters that are constantly trying to keep their children safe We're about 5 to 10 years away from a glut of Deathwish style protagonists fighting the awful young people.
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Nov 3, 2016 22:15
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lol unsurprising but I meant in games.
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Nov 3, 2016 22:17
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MacheteZombie posted:fair enough, just the Death Wish reminded me of it. In a way it is surprising this hasn't come sooner after Occupy. ~Millenials~ have been demonised so heavily for years now by boomers too.
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Nov 3, 2016 22:19
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Bicyclops posted:Look at Gary Johnson soar!! Don't knock a straight shooter.
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Nov 3, 2016 22:45
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