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A +7 is outlier-y as all hell. Also, as long as Nate keeps aggregating complete poo poo like those Google Consumer Surveys, which this time around have New York closer than Wisconsin, and Clinton +8 in Kansas, poo poo's gonna be a little weird. Also this from his article about how much Dems should be worrying today: quote:natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): A 5 or 6 sounds about right. And Republicans should be at a 7 or 8. Everyone arzy! Buy my book! Buy my book! Real sick of Shook Nate this cycle. weekly font fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Nov 1, 2016 |
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Nov 1, 2016 21:18
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I'll put the gun to my head with y'all when we dip below the line on PEC. Believe in the Wang.
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Nov 1, 2016 21:41
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canepazzo posted:Trump's GOTV is going to win Nevada: The Miller that got away.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:31
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Social Studies 3rd Period posted:also there's complaints of the last several days that - funnily - right when we need it most, there seems to be few good polls coming out and a surplus of garbage and/or tracking. I've been saying since February that horrendous polling methodologies are going to gently caress up some aggregation and Nate seems to be taking it the worst. Thing is though, even though his percentages are stupid, his map is probably correct.
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Nov 2, 2016 13:59
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Why won't Donald Trump say White Domestic Terrorism.FlamingLiberal posted:I may be wrong but I thought NY State didn't have early voting either? The infograph from a few pages back also lists Jersey as having early voting, which it doesn't. What it does have is absentee ballots which you've been able to get for a while. I had to have them mailed to me when I was in college.
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Nov 2, 2016 14:30
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Social Studies 3rd Period posted:Are you sure you're thinking of Nate Cohn? Cohn has generally been The Good Nate this year. Nate Silver is the one with 538 and has had a lot of issues this year / broken down a bit wrt Trump being a thing. No this is what I mean. Shook Nate is allowing trash polls like 50 state online *wet fart* polls into his aggregates and it's loving up a lot. It's not so bad that it's shifting entire states (though I wouldn't be surprised if he's off by 1 this year) but it's enough to push states that are probably not actually tossups into purple territory on one of his THREE completely necessary prediction models. Nate Cohn is cool.
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Nov 2, 2016 15:16
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Roland Jones posted:Update on my Bernie-turned-Trump "friend" on Facebook: Tell HA Goodman I said hey.
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Nov 2, 2016 15:32
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Mind_Taker posted:https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/793606079380873217 I work in a school for rich white kids and uh, not the ones that will grow up to be white men, that's for sure.
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Nov 2, 2016 15:36
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Nate is 1) Shook 2) A Garbage pundit 3) Does not discriminate about polls that go into his aggregation no matter how trashass they are
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Nov 2, 2016 19:23
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cool double post bro
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Nov 2, 2016 19:23
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This will go suspiciously uncovered by the news orgs that are so in the bag for Hillary they would never ever cover her scandals.
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Nov 2, 2016 19:31
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Covok posted:They probably won't cover the Child Rape because they said they wouldn't. CNN said the story doesn't meet their journalistic standards the day after the Second Debate when talking with a Trump surrogate as a reply to him brining in the Clinton rape accusers. "We could attack Trump on this too. He's accused of rape of a minor, but we don't because those stories don't hit our standard for coverage, but bringing in Hillary's accuser's opens the door for us to cover it!"  gently caress the media burn it all down Donnie
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Nov 2, 2016 19:50
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alpha_destroy posted:This is a local issue, but it might speak to national problems. In Jersey we have something like this in regards to a gas tax and I have no real clue how to vote for it.
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Nov 3, 2016 17:24
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Agrajag posted:Fast and Furious series sucks, that's how. All the Dwayne Johnson ones rule.
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Nov 4, 2016 03:13
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How can you hate the new TMNT movie when it's more faithful to the cartoon than dogshit like Secret of the Ooze was?
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Nov 4, 2016 03:21
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Fojar38 posted:I'm about to just stop checking 538 at this point. Bunch of great battleground polls come out: Clinton inches up 1.5% Trump up in a bunch of deep red states: Clinton plummets 4% Nate Shook. Nate is a mess.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:21
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Bloops Crusts posted:It makes sense if you understand the methodology. One of 538's core conceits is that state polls don't move independent of one another; all of the states are correlated to some extent. If a bunch of good polls come up for Trump in Georgia and South Carolina, for example, that means he's probably also doing well in North Carolina. I understand I just think it's flawed as hell
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Nov 4, 2016 20:33
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RVProfootballer posted:I really don't think this is a key problem, though perhaps 538 assumes too strong a correlation. Polls shouldn't be moving randomly, and if you see 5 states move 2 points towards Clinton after the first debate, you should assume a sixth state with no polling done yet also likely moved that way. Whether the model weights that too heavily or doesn't properly throw out those correlations when actual data comes in, I'm not sure. More that I think Nate has no barrier to entry for polls, like other aggregates do. He's letting some real garbage poo poo swing his numbers.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:40
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canepazzo posted:ABC sprung a new tracking poll by surprise, now 47-43 Clinton from 47-44 earlier today. Gotta get in the herd.
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Nov 4, 2016 23:36
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Teddybear posted:So this'll be a fun story this weekend, possibly: He won't have a job Monday.
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Nov 4, 2016 23:46
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Samuel Clemens posted:There was an elector in Georgia who said the same thing for Trump. It won't matter. He was forced to resign. They will find a way to dump this idiot should it actually matter.
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Nov 4, 2016 23:58
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Pakled posted:Most states have laws binding their electors to the winner of that state. Breaking the law is a thousand dollar fine according to the article. Guy can do it anyway if he wants. (It won't matter)
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Nov 5, 2016 00:31
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ReV VAdAUL posted:Why is CO such a lock? reports say Dems and GOP are in a dead heat: http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/early-voting-lead-for-colorado-democrats-dwindles-as-republican-voting-surges iirc, Repubs were up in EV in 2012 and lost bigly. They are currently down.
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Nov 5, 2016 01:14
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Militree posted:Does anyone have any info on early voting in New Jersey? That map that gets posted said it's available, but all I can research says no excuse absentee ballot only, and I don't have enough time to get that in. No early voting here.
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Nov 5, 2016 01:47
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