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Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


Guy Goodbody posted:

Why the gently caress are you people not taking Trump at his word on what he wants to do as President? We've been through this poo poo over and over again

Trump won't run
Trump's not gonna win a single state
This is just a stunt, he's gonna drop out
Trump can't be the Republican nominee
Trump's gonna blow up before election day
Trump can't win

and now

Trump's not going to actually do the things he said he would



Donald Trump is president. The same Donald Trump that ran for election.

The best we can hope for is the people around him manage to convince him he really meant X when he said Y.

But then I look at the people around him and that possibility is no less terrifying.

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Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


I never bothered to look into it because it always seemed to be the comedy option but....

What would be steps required to withdraw from NAFTA and/or revoke preferred trade status with China?

Because those are two things I can see him being 100% gung-ho on

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


Pervis posted:

What makes you think they would lose their jobs? The companies who owns the toll roads would just end up becoming the major trucking companies (by acquisition or otherwise) and using their leverage to force all the smaller, non-road-owning companies out. And they would pay lower because now there's fewer options. At a very minimum I'd guess very important highway corridor's would be converted to public/private partnerships, ones that aren't easily replaced or moved around.


In which case it'll be done in the South or other highly not-unionized places, rather than the parts of the country that are the reason why Trump won (the Rust Belt).

The south isn't capable of absorbing many more high tech manufacturing jobs (and all manufacturing would be high tech due to automation).

Just look at the cluster duck that Boeing in SC has been.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


boner confessor posted:

the lesson here isn't that southerners are stupid, but if you cut wages by a third you're going to get a reduction in worker quality

No it is pretty much the first one actually.

I'm not being some stupid :biotruths: dumbass about it or anything, it is just a result of the fact that the public education system of the south blows thanks to being systematically gutted once whites were forced to share it with blacks and it is showing up in a big way now. The universities and technical colleges of South Carolina were simply not training people to anywhere near the competence necessary for aerospace work. It would take a decade or two of extremely focused educational system improvements to undo.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


Hollismason posted:

Bolton was also I think involved in Iran Contra in some way or connected to it through like I think trying to halt the investigation.

We keep throwing out these putrid creatures out only to have the American voters drag them right back in again like the worst game of fetch imaginable.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


achillesforever6 posted:

It seems like there is a problem in how generational the coal miner industry is where your great grandfather was a coal miner, your dad was coal miner, and goddamn it you will die a coal miner.

That's because as a practical matter it is really really difficult to do something your family and family friends hasn't done in the past. Not only will you not know where to start but you also won't have a support network in place that can help you navigate the process. The internet is a very poor substitute.

You see it a lot in first-generation college students. They haven't grown up hearing stories about how their parent did X in college and somehow still managed to graduate (implied lesson - don't do X) or that the neighbor's kid is off to visit campuses or build up on extracurricular activities before applying. Even basic stuff like "you have to buy the textbooks" can come as an unpleasant surprise.


Kobayashi posted:

The GOP is going after the free press next, specifically the NY Times and elite dailies. They're really the only viable foil to the Republicans right now. I would have said Warren, Pelosi, or Harris as outspoken, qualified women, but they're already effectively neutralized, so yeah... welcome to fascism.

Sadly I think you are right on this one. The only thing that the GOP and right wing media has demonized to the same extent as the Clintons is the media. I know that the GOPe is worried about how their attacks on the press enabled Trump but they are now riding the tiger and they value their skin too much to try and get off. They have successfully made their base automatically reject anything they don't agree with and it has been insanely effective. Just look at the response on conservative Twitter or Reddit about Google and Facebook (reluctantly) cracking down on fake news sites by banning them from their advertising networks. They are flipping the gently caress out about it saying that it is censorship and it being a giant conspiracy.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


Pollyanna posted:

I posted this in C-SPAM, but: can someone explain to me why free trade is a good thing? I keep hearing politicians harp on and on about it but it seems like something that's too abstract and disconnected to actually have much of an effect on people's lives. Why does everyone have such a boner for free trade?

There are a whole bunch of reasons but one of the fundamental reasons is that trade lets things be done where people are the "best" and most efficient at doing them so people get the best quality for the lowest prices. Growing vegetables in upstate NY during December is possible but growing asparagus in Peru and shipping it is cheaper and results in better tasting product. The best mines for an ore are most likely nowhere near where the best foundries are located or where the most skilled machinists live so instead of trying to run a foundry where electricity is expensive and then have a lovely product made by someone who doesn't entirely know what they are doing (and is slowed down by having to wait for other materials), it is much better to have the mine ship the ore to the foundry located next to cheap hydro power, which then ships the metal to the machinists who make the highest quality thing in the shortest time.

And on average that is pretty much how it works out. The major problem is that the returns are not spread evenly. The saved money goes into price decreases for the end users and returns on capital investment for investors, and not to those people who now find themselves jobless because the local mineral deposit was of lower purity than one in Argentina. Even if you did attempt to help (we effectively don't), money gets reallocated must easier and faster than you could ever hope to retrain or move the people who it leaves behind.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


Washington Post and The NY Times are going to be the best sources of consistent investigative reporting you will find in US media. The Post tends to do better on political reporting but the Times has shown a nearly supernatural ability to root through intentionally obfuscated business dealings.

If you have an amazon prime subscription you can get six months of the Post online for free and a reduced rate thereafter.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


SeANMcBAY posted:

That makes me happy. I donated more than I probably should have since I was worried people would forget about them. Still worth it.:unsmith:

I'm really happy to have the card in my wallet. Coming up on 10 year :toot:

My wife and I decided that when the bullshit GOP supply-side tax cut goes through we are taking every dime we "save" and plowing it into the ACLU and Planned Parenthood.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


Hollismason posted:

His infrastructure program is just tax breaks for corporations and toll roads with some extra pipelines being built etc.. He's not gonna be like " Guess what we're gonna be building all these new bridges etc..."

I keep hearing that the plan is little more than pushing public-private partnerships to invest in infrastructure. Which means toll roads to move suburbanites around metropolitan areas, backed by federal loan guarantees.

And living in an area where such plans have been heavily pushed and have gone in holy poo poo do people goddamn loathe public private partnership toll roads.



Side note the whole Trump transition is hilarious. The constant shuffle of "X is a favorite" followed later in the day by "X has left the campaign, now Y is the favorite!" Is just amazing.

Shifty Pony fucked around with this message at 05:20 on Nov 17, 2016

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


Grouchio posted:

US Director of National Intelligence James Clapper has resigned.

Don't blame him one bit.


Trump clearly isn't interested in seeking out information. He's going to be meeting with a foreign head of state without even a State Department briefing. Why the gently caress would you want to stick around if it meant having to fight just for the chance to be ignored?

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


fits my needs posted:

What are his opinions on putting Muslims in internment camps?

He already keeps a list of Muslim refugees that have been accused of committing crime sso...

Yeah he'd be a fan.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


Covok posted:

Sounds like the war on terror will intensify. Strange, though. Trump wants to strengthen bonds with Russia, why hire someone who wants to war with them?

Because Trump has no loving clue what he is doing and lets his most recent decision dictate his professed positions.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


A Wizard of Goatse posted:

Trump's also shown nothing but contempt for the empire-building visions of his predecessors (or, like, the general concept of any part of the outside world that doesn't have one of his hotels on it) so unless someone convinces him Iran is an existential threat or Khamenei called him a pussy I don't know why he'd feel motivated to do anything at all about them.

He only cares about a place if he can slap his name on it, and then he loves it.

He is now in a position where he can slap his name on anything.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


Except cats come running if you shake a bag of treats.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


He will just do to the press corps what he did at the convention and set up an assigned seating arrangement with his sycophants front and center.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


JehovahsWetness posted:

The White House Correspondents Association is responsible for determining assigned seating in the briefing room, not the administration.

Is currently responsible you mean.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


RandomBlue posted:

I understand that $14k medical bill can be bad for many people, but I'm saying people are claiming that no insurance at all would be better than ACA insurance in ways in which ACA would bankrupt them but no insurance wouldn't. There's no legitimate case where that is true. Most of the plans cover 80% of the expenses after the deductible up to the OOP max. Shocker, one party willfully ignoring the facts or just outright lying because they've decided X is bad because the other party is for it.

I'm all for nationalized healthcare at this point as well. We're one of the very few first world nations that don't have that.

The argument is that if you are just going to declare bankruptcy anyway why should you put all that money into premiums instead of literally anything else? Basically why bother putting a new roof on a house on a hillside that will slide into the ocean in the first thunderstorm that comes along?

There is some logic there. Most people can't absorb the Out of pocket max. Even if they can, OOP max only applies to in network charges and you can and will get hosed even if you are smart because our health care system is more twisted than any person can navigate. Say you go to an in-network hospital for emergency surgery. Oh hey turned out the anesthesiologist called in a buddy for a consult and that guy is out of network and is charging $25k! Even if you are at the OOP max this year the insurance company will only pay their in-network rates for what the guy did so you get a check for $78.04. Bankruptcy here you come. Either way you have $0 and ruined credit. You actually could be worse off because you could have invested those premiums into something shelters from bankruptcy like a 401k.

Which is why we need single payer or at the very least regulations in allowable charges and a ban on balance billing (where the surgeon/hospital takes the insurance payment then comes after you for the rest).

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


"Conservative" judges are still primarily judges with all the respect for jurisprudence that entails. They don't just toss the 1st amendment out the door because they see ACLU as the plaintiff.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


Whole lotta people are going to learn the hard way why the Greens are a joke.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


boner confessor posted:

trade deals are great for the average american. 80% of americans are employed in the tertiary or quaternary sectors, basically the service sector. they get cheap goods. a small minority of americans lose their jobs. by and large though free trade is beneficial for everyone - watch trump start a trade war and middle america suddenly has to deal with 50% price hikes at walmart lol

The average American gets diffuse and difficult to quantify benefits like cheaper goods (cheaper than what?) while they see a select few get clear and very easy to quantify benefits like bonuses and stock dividends when they move production overseas.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


Gail Wynand posted:

The tech bubble has been quietly deflating for a couple years now, deal flow is way down and you're seeing more down rounds.

"Already existing service X but with an app/website" type startups are definitely in for retrenchment and consolidation though. My town has like 5 different meal delivery startups, that's not sustainable in the long run. Uber will go down hard at some point, too. Could be an Enron 2.0 type situation.

Startups with real technical innovation backing them up along with the broader IT sector will be fine. There's a colossal amount of work out there, most companies are way behind the times and loaded with technical debt coming due.

I have a toe in startup land right now but my plan is to cash out and switch to consultancy in the new year.

This time it is difficult to really get a handle on how things are going because it is all behind closed doors. Last time we knew how hosed the companies were because they were public.

Going to be interesting to see how the snap chat ipo goes.

Also nearly every startup is basing valuations on expanding worldwide. If Trump pisses off the rest of the world or tears up enough trade agreements to have foreign countries start cutting market access it could be very bad for them. Also amusingly Trump's tax plan fucks tech companies by removing all overseas deferred income and subjecting them to 15% tax which is much much higher than the 0.5% or whatever tech companies pay now.

Shifty Pony fucked around with this message at 02:07 on Nov 25, 2016

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


If you manage to find a greater fool it isn't your problem what happens in the end.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


resurgam40 posted:

Do you know, I had some fried turkey at a thanksgiving long past; that's pretty much how we did it too, only my uncle had the foresight to not do it on a patio (he did it in his yard and used a burner). We had 3 turkeys that year, all done a different style; I remember the fried as pretty good, so I don't suppose I can fault the Speaker for his taste... Just for everything else.

Convalescing after today's meal myself; no fried turkey, but no politics either. It was lovely :unsmith:

We had hickory smoked this year.

Good year.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


Lightning Knight posted:


He doesn't have to be smart for Conway to be like "hey flag burners are punks right, it would be great if you tweeted that today and showed how strong of a leader you are."

The most powerful item you can have whe in the room with Trump is the DVR remote control.

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


RandomBlue posted:

I think the left massively underestimated just how much denial the right could be in. I think maybe the fact that their party put up such a dumpster fire broke their brains too and they just went "Nope, didn't happen.". We vastly underestimated their powers of self deception.

Yes, Trump is strong, honest, hard working, good business man with family/christian values and good decision making skills and he's the salt of the Earth.

People weren't deceived about Trump. They just didn't care because he was saying the right things about jobs.

They were thinking "The bad things will happen to other people, and even if they do happen to me at least I'll have a job that pays better than minimum wage."

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


FlamingLiberal posted:

Trump is putting another billionaire investor in Wilbur Ross as Commerce Secretary.

This is really a "could be worse" pick. The guy is a pretty generic less regulation good, unleash business type who oddly enough blames the tendency for companies in declining industries to not actually try to do anything beyond maximizing short term income on upper management sitting around going "Oh woe is me! the external forces just don't give us a chance!"

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


Kilroy posted:

Yeah it's not that Tim Ryan was a great alternative or even a better alternative, it's that no one better even ran and the House Democrats seem fine with this.

Compare and contrast Chuck Schumer being elected minority leader in the Senate. The Democrats have had their asses handed to them and their response, aside from maybe electing Keith Ellison DNC chair, has been basically to keep doing what they're doing.

Point being, if you were hoping for the Democrats to form an effective opposition to Trump between now and 2018, or to have a winning strategy for 2018, the window on that is quickly closely.

It is worth pointing out that being Minority or Majority Leader is pretty much accepting that your political career has peaked. You become the designated boogieman for the other party and designated scapegoat for your own party when something is not going to someone's liking.

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Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


bird food bathtub posted:

The answer is people are god drat pissed off at the status quo. Everybody for different reasons depending on their individual situation but the common thread is 'gently caress you all you haven't done poo poo for me in decades' Harness that and start pointing it at sons of bitches, preferably the ones that deserve it, because if you don't Team Rocket is gonna ride in and use it to poo poo on minorities some more. See also: every god drat election basically everywhere.

As just one example, I get the financial necessity of bailing out the banks in the global financial crisis. Nobody was really gonna like that one, but that could have been smoothed over if you frog marched some mother fuckers into trial and actually gave them some consequences instead of letting them use the bailouts they got to pay off some fines then gave them an out by not admitting guilt in their plea deal with one hand while they continue to foreclose on houses across the nation with the other.

Would it have been political theater? Yeah, absolutely. So what? Half of politics is messaging to begin with and what the hell kind of message was sent with that? Give them a huge show trial, let the media all over it like the poo poo-attracted flies they are. Publicly crucify the 1%-er assholes that caused the problem in the first place. Splash their names across the front pages of papers. If you win, great! You've sent the message that loving needs to be sent and you can start down the path of regaining public trust in the institutions that are failing everyone across the board. If you lose, because there's every possibility they would have lawyered their way out of it like the weasely rich poo poo stains they are, also great! Hammer that drum long and loud about how rigged the system is and these elite assholes are having their way with you and yours. Vote for me.

But but that sounds like it will require me, democratic rep of this district so long my butt shape is permanently worn into my wooden office seat, to actually do some hard campaigning and say things which might rock the boat with the rich constituents who write me a check for the maximum contribution like clockwork every year :ohdear:

Wait I just remembered that I won the last election with 87% of the vote thanks to pulling some strings with the state DNC to not oppose that part of the GOP gerrymandering. Whew, false alarm I can just toss pub some yard signs every two years and work on my assprint some more.




Sarcasm aside one of the things that needs to be done is focus on revamping state and local Democratic Party operations which have over the years become primarily concerned with getting cliques of longstanding democrats elected over and over again even if it comes at the expense of the party's ability to compete in other districts.

Shifty Pony fucked around with this message at 03:15 on Dec 1, 2016

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