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Thanks for the autopsy post. Confirms a lot of what I suspected. Seems like Robby Mook was worshipping at the feet of the supercomputer and its polling projections and ignoring the more nebulous warning signs. They were chasing rainbows like Arizona or white college voters or white women and they let black turnout in the Rust Belt cities crater. Total disaster. No message, completely rudderless.
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Nov 10, 2016 02:58
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Not a Step posted:If there had been a DNC dedicated to helping all candidates succeed and if Clinton hadnt been, well, Clinton I think we could have avoided this darkest timeline. The DNC's idiotic "clearing the bench" operation for Clinton is gonna go down as one of the worst mistakes in American political history. The only credible opponent to Hillary was Sanders; the rest of them were mediocrities and unknowns like O'Malley and Chafee. I can't imagine that a competitive primary between Clinton, Biden, Sanders, maybe Warren or Klobuchar or Gilibrand or whoever else, would not have produced a stronger general election candidate. Wasserman-Schulz was beyond incompetent and Obama should have fired her when he had the chance, costs be damned.
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Nov 10, 2016 03:41
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:I still remember all the worst Hillarymen smugly asserting that they didn't have to grant any concessions to Bernie supporters because they lost, and should Deal With It, and the only sensible path forward was to court Neocon war criminals and moderate Republicans, only to have Democrats decisively vote more for Trump than the other way around. Yes. The entire summer was squandered chasing after Republicans who ended up going home in the last two weeks of the election. It was political malpractice. Meanwhile, the black vote in Detroit and Milwaukee and Philadelphia cratered.
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Nov 10, 2016 03:45
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rex rabidorum vires posted:Scranton as well. There's about 100k votes from Scranton that no showed vs '12. She under performed urban PA hardcore. For what was supposed to be the most sophisticated and vaunted GOTV op ever it laid a loving egg. Remember when the Democratic Party rolled over and let James O'Keefe kill ACORN? Might have come in handy.
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Nov 10, 2016 03:51
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Yinlock posted:E: and i'm not arguing that sanders supporters won things for trump either, just that it's a bit odd to be placing 100% of the blame solely on hillary For my part, I'm not totally blaming Hillary (although she did make some mistakes), but if I ever meet Robby Mook or John Podesta I'm going to have to resist the urge to punch them in the head.
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Nov 10, 2016 03:52
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Venom Snake posted:Yeah, but like I'm more interested in how we fix the failures than just screaming into the void yknow? We can argue about the actual person clinton herself but I think the biggest gently caress ups lay with her high level campaign operatives tbh Did you ever meet people like Mook or Podesta? What was the impression you got from them? Because I am beyond furious with them now. I think this is at their feet in a lot of ways.
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Nov 10, 2016 04:06
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Plank Walker posted:I think it was a bad idea to pivot at the last minute to a message of a continuation of the last 8 years. I'm sure it was motivated by Obama's approval rating and trying to get out the minority vote, but it's a passive stance, and the electorate wants someone who's going to do something. It could have worked, but the campaign seemed reluctant to provide actual specifics on what a continuation of the Obama presidency meant. The Dems never seemed to make a coherent argument on the issues. We all saw the same Clinton ads over and over again of little kids looking at Trump on the TV, or whatever. And all those ads did nothing but ensure that we'll all be seeing Trump on the TV for a long time to come.
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Nov 10, 2016 04:20
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rum sodomy Rainbow Dash posted:Also, isn't the youth vote still an unreliable demographic? I guess they expected a smooth transition from Obama voters. Yes. Every demographic cratered compared to 2012. We lost seven million votes.
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Nov 10, 2016 04:31
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Venom Snake posted:Mook was 100% certain in data and models which proved hilariously inaccurate This is the impression I got, yeah. Christ, what a mess.
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Nov 10, 2016 04:55
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:I think enough time has passed to talk about how scapegoating Russia and painting Trump as an agent of the Kremlin was a dumb idea. There was a moment in one of the debates where Clinton got asked point blank about something she said in the leaked emails and she immediately pivoted to Russia. I mean, personally, I think that Trump is a useful idiot for Putin and friends, but god drat it was stupid politics to make this a centerpiece of the campaign.
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Nov 10, 2016 05:02
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Venom Snake posted:he was absolutely russia's candidate of choice dude Did that resonate with voters though? I can't imagine anyone outside the intelligentsia in the big cities cared about that, and hey, guess what, we already had those. Maybe I'm wrong though, I dunno. gently caress it, there were so many mistakes, and this was just one of them.
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Nov 10, 2016 05:03
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Peel posted:obama was already planning to do post-presidency politics, it'd be helpful if he still did even if it's not the same thing he was going to be an activist for redistricting reform. that makes literally zero sense when the Heritage Foundation is gonna be picking the next 3 SCOTUS justices. Obama might as well just head to Silicon Valley and sit on some boards for 30 years until he dies.
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Nov 10, 2016 05:10
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Venom Snake posted:You can be a rich ponce whose out of touch and still realize yer going to lose your head of poo poo gets to bad. shame they completely jobbed it though so everyone's going to lose their poo poo. Was anyone sounding alarm bells, like on a "we're going to lose this election" level, at any point? We all saw that Politico article from early this morning about how Bill was badgering people about the sort of midwest turnout disaster that ended up happening, and the data wonks all basically laughed it off. Was there anyone at the Michigan state office level, or something, who were trying to draw attention to the problems here?
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Nov 10, 2016 05:14
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Typo posted:lol link plz http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/hillary-clinton-loses-2016-election-214439 "Bill Clinton complained throughout that Mook was too focused on the ground game and not enough on driving a message-based campaign. Without a chief strategist in the mold of Penn or David Axelrod, the campaign was run by a committee of strong-willed aides, struggling to assert themselves in the same space."
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Nov 10, 2016 05:17
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Venom Snake posted:Nobody expected it but it makes 100% sense looking back. We got Kristol'd God. I'm sorry, I know people like you put in the work and did the best they can do. But we're gonna be living with the consequences of Mook's (and Podesta's and Clinton's and whoever else) staggering ineptitude for a long, long time.
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Nov 10, 2016 05:19
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Patter Song posted:Could people stop it with "turnout was low?" We know there are several million votes left to be counted, and 126 million votes have already been counted, compared to 129 million cast in 2012 and 131 million in 2008. We'll end up slightly over 2012 in voter turnout. It was down by a lot in the Midwestern states that made the difference. And that turnout was most notably missing among key elements of the Obama coalition.
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Nov 10, 2016 05:23
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Patter Song posted:A lot of people are only looking at Trump and Clinton's figures vs Romney's and Obama's and ignoring that 6 million people voted third party rather than 2 million last cycle. It's the same thing at the end of the day when you're talking about turnout. Someone voting for Johnson or Stein is functionally equivalent to them staying home, at the Presidential level at least.
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Nov 10, 2016 05:28
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Necc0 posted:another thing i just remembered: why the gently caress weren't they going through the wikileaks site and posting highlights of things they were proud of? it was clear wikilieaks wasn't reading all of that and just releasing their shockers amidst tens of thousands of emails so there was plenty of material to choose from. that seemed obvious to me just a month or two into that whole circus That would have required an ounce of creative thought. That seems to have been in short supply in top echelons of the Clinton Campaign.
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Nov 10, 2016 05:31
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Venom Snake posted:No. I dealt with surrogates and talking points. Not super high level poo poo like "what do we make the campaign about". What I do 100% know is I got told at times that I shouldn't be worried about keeping the dem base excited You've got to be loving kidding me.
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Nov 10, 2016 05:37
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Necc0 posted:a campaign doesn't get second chances what's funny is that the clinton campaign from 2008 basically got a second chance. and they made some of the same old mistakes while also making new and interesting ones. Oh, our chief strategist in 2008 was an incompetent moron? I guess next time we don't have a chief strategist, and we just have a committee of consultants headed up by some data fetishist who worships at the feet of a goddamn supercomputer running a flawed simulation model.
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Nov 10, 2016 05:39
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Venom Snake posted:She never talked about it because the staff were scared theyd alienate voters hahahahahaahahahahahahahaha kill me oh my god
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Nov 10, 2016 13:55
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The more I stew over it, the more I'm sure that, even with all of the Clinton problems baked in, Venom Snake, or me, or most anyone else in this thread could have been a better campaign manager than Robby loving Mook. Of course, maybe Mook wasn't actually making any decisions himself and was just the one who was the designated whisperer to the Great Oracle that was their GOTV computer. Sigh. God what a bunch of bunglers.
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Nov 10, 2016 14:26
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Like I just can't get over this. How does a campaign focusing on GOTV manage to let this happen. This is beyond shocking. https://twitter.com/tomgara/status/796698923670839296
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Nov 10, 2016 14:28
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Phobophilia posted:I remember asking this question a long, long time ago. Hillary 08 bungled by hiring on lots of sycophants and cronies and yes-men. I wonder if her management skills had improved since then. I was told something to the effect that time changes someone. I think that they made a different mistake this time. Instead of an idiotic crony like Penn, who literally didn't know that delegates were allocated proportionally in 2008, but had veto power over every strategic decision, you had a loving pow-wow of Silicon Valley data fetishist consultant types calling the shots by committee. But since everyone was focused on their own little piece of the Get out the loving Vote puzzle, you didn't have anyone pushing a unified, coherent, strategy and message. And then suddenly you underperform in Detroit by Two Hundred Thousand Goddamn Votes and it's off to the races.
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Nov 10, 2016 14:42
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Apraxin posted:so here's a thing I'm not getting in this thread: These are the two things I'm most focusing on. I'm not really concerned about the ideological battle that some other posters are going about in this thread. I'm too exhausted for that right now. What I'm looking at here, is that there was a machine. The machine broke down, or maybe never worked at all. And Robby Mook and all the technicians responsible for making the machine run were massive, massive failures. What this means for 2020, I don't know. But, as it stands right now, there don't seem to be many plausible standard-bearers. I was lukewarm on Sanders in the primary, but it's clear that we need someone with his energy right now. I just wish he was 15 years younger.
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Nov 10, 2016 15:36
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mrmcd posted:Honestly I think people are overplaying the "Academic Left jargon poisoned us against working class voters" a bit. Sure a lot of people roll their eyes or don't like Lena Dunham but at the end of the day: Exactly. Did elements of the Clinton campaign and some of its surrogates trade in rhetoric that turned off the White Working Class? Sure. But that doesn't explain why we lost hundreds of thousands of votes in Detroit and Milwaukee.
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Nov 10, 2016 15:51
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:The last decade shows us that a 2018 wave is coming. The questions are if it'll be big enough, and if we'll actually do anything with it. The worst possible outcome is the Democratic Party doing absolutely nothing differently. There'll be a wave in 2018, and another in 2020 and again in 2022 and each new iteration of the GOP's waves will become more and more nationalist, racist, and fascist. 2018 would have to be a massive, and I mean TRULY MASSIVE, 1932-level wave for the Democrats to meaningfully alter outcomes. There's something like 9 senate seats up for election in Trump-friendly states and two realistic chances to flip Republican seats blue. 2018 is not gonna save the Democratic party unless it undergoes some massive, massive structural shifts in the next year and is blessed with an extraordinarily gifted generation of new leadership.
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Nov 10, 2016 15:56
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:A 2006, 2010 or 2014 wave would absolutely put the house in play. That's literally every single midterm election in the last decade. I can only hope and pray that those sorts of waves can break Democratic with a post-2010 redistricting map.
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Nov 10, 2016 16:08
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sportsgenius86 posted:The grassroots level of the party is basically an Army of Lena Dunham's who have minimal loan debt and whose parents subsidize their gentrified downtown housing. These people believe that social issues are the most important thing in the world because they don't have to literally worry every second of every day about their financial situation and when you try to explain that your reasons for maybe not agreeing are because you emphasize other important issues, you get called a woman-hating racist. I'm worried that this is correct and it filtered up, in various forms, to the top of the Clinton campaign, which massively failed to make arguments that would have supplanted their ultimately completely worthless GOTV campaign. There's a lot to dissect here.
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Nov 10, 2016 16:50
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Raskolnikov38 posted:the whole go to hillaryclinton.com thing is utterly amazing thinking about it for more than 5 seconds now Yes. It sounded intensely cringe-worthy on stage, but I assumed that there must have been a reason for it, and that people would actually do that and go look at her policies. and now we have Venom Snake telling us that it was a deliberate choice for Hillary to not actually talk about substantive economic policy on stage, because it might turn off voters, and this whole concept of just pointing to her website and telling voters to make up their minds seems incompetent on a ghastly, horrible level.
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Nov 10, 2016 17:13
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:also imagine being a poor rural white voter who maybe has a decades old computer or maybe no computer at all and only has a landline phone or maybe imagine someone who's an impoverished african-american in detroit or milwaukee or philadelphia who has to go to a chronically underfunded local library to use a computer or get internet access and then half a million of them didn't show up to the polls. god, this was such a fuckup. top to bottom. christ.
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Nov 10, 2016 17:23
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mrmcd posted:Like can we do whatever the gently caress the Reid people did in NV? Reid's Nevada Machine is built on the strength of a rising tide of non-white immigration and a very powerful service sector Union. Neither of those exist in the Midwest. And while you're never gonna turn Youngstown into Vegas, demographically speaking, the DNC let the GOP destroy unionism in the Midwest, and now we're all paying the price.
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Nov 10, 2016 17:53
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Some more grist for the mill on my "the machine failed" analysis of this election: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/305339-clinton-world-dumbfounded-by-hillarys-election-defeatquote:"It was a mismanaged campaign from the start, 150 percent,” one aide said. “There was so much stuff that needed fixing. I thought we might have learned some lessons from the primary. But as you can tell from last night, probably not." quote:One surrogate blamed the poor sampling models and analytics that the campaign was so reliant on. It hadn’t done traditional tracking polls for the last month. quote:Allies on the ground complained for weeks that they weren’t getting the resources they needed. quote:“I don’t think we ever understood the political climate there,” the Clinton friend said. “I know some are questioning why we never went there in the final days.” quote:“This is not the outcome we wanted or we worked so hard for, and I’m sorry that we did not win this election for the values we share and the vision we hold for our country,” she said. “But I feel pride and gratitude for this wonderful campaign that we built together.” God.
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Nov 10, 2016 18:02
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Raskolnikov38 posted:what the gently caress did they spend money on if not downticket races that needed help? 450 mil on Hamilton tickets?!?!?!? they were chasing goddamn rainbows with it. "Oh, we're gonna win white women! We're gonna flip Arizona! We're gonna flip Georgia! We're gonna be competitive in Texas! We're gonna win college educated whites!" And it's all just a smoking crater now.
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Nov 10, 2016 18:15
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exquisite tea posted:So basically Clinton lost for all the same exact reasons why she lost the primary in 2008. This is all so obvious to me now for so many different reasons but at the time my feeling was that she had learned from her mistakes and was following Obama's model to the presidency. L M A O She did follow Obama's model. The problem was that the model no longer applied, and the people responsible for fitting the model to the current electorate completely failed to do so. They thought that their GOTV supercomputer could do it all without actually stopping to think about WHY people vote.
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Nov 10, 2016 18:26
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Pomp posted:every one hosed up and i'm mad at every one of us Yep. But what could we have done? Robby Mook wasn't gonna listen to me.
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Nov 10, 2016 18:46
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Typo posted:lol Sam B will be why the dems are gonna keep losing I think the problem is less that Sam B, John Oliver, etc. alienate certain demographics and more that they create a very complacent, insular worldview among liberals. And that complacent, insular worldview ended up being the hallmark of the Clinton campaign.
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Nov 10, 2016 19:45
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Throw another thing on the pile of "stuff that Robby Mook's GOTV supercomputer missed by a mile" https://twitter.com/RoundSqrCupola/status/796768978303647744
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Nov 10, 2016 20:12
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RENEGADE CUCKSKY posted:FYI, I can say with nearly 100% certainty that this is happening right now because the DNC is practically begging the AFL-CIO to not abandon them going forward. There's a lot to digest here, and I hope that the next generation of DNC leadership realizes that.
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Nov 10, 2016 20:15
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GlyphGryph posted:I think he could if he ran with a clear, decent pick for VP in mind. A Bernie/Warren ticket would pretty easily calm fears about him dying in office, wouldn't it? It's like, worst case scenario you get the first woman president. Warren is no spring chicken herself. Bernie Sanders, Liz Warren, and others like them should be doing everything they can to recruit and empower people like them who are 20, 30, and 40 years younger to rebuild the Democratic party.
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Nov 10, 2016 20:51
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