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tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
The vibe I get from this draft (based purely on reading about it, not actually watching any college basketball or anything because seriously who wants to do that?) is that Fulz is a potential superstar and then there's three to five potential all-stars in the lottery but everyone disagrees on who those players are. It feels like the kind of draft where a team is going to get lucky and get a Paul George at 10 or a Kawhi at 15.

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tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized

Dejan Bimble posted:

This is why it might be beneficial for the sort of all tools wing who can't shoot to stay in college for 2 years, to get that creeping basketball mortality moment, it won't always be easy forever, when they are drafted they may fully commit to working on their shot, and they'll be mentally primed to change those ingrained patterns. That's my purely anecdotal evidence based opinion based on late lottery toolsy wings who've become good scorer/shooters in the NBA

I have no empirical evidence to back me up, but I'm of the the opposite opinion. Get to an NBA team as soon as you can because they have better coaches, you have no time restrictions on working with them and a pro team has a much bigger incentive to improve the game of a player on a four year contract they are invested in than a college does for someone who could leave and go pro any moment and they can replace with a five star recruit every year. Staying in school is only worth it if you think you could improve from undrafted to a draft pick, or jump from second rounder/late first to a lottery pick. Otherwise declare and get drafted ASAP will be best for you game long term.

tanglewood1420 fucked around with this message at 01:56 on Jan 9, 2017

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
I went on NBA tankathon and on my first sim draft the Kings and Knicks both jumped the Lakers so Philly got #2 and #4 overall.

If that happens in real life they are putting a statue of Hinke next to the Rocky one.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
Kevin O'Connor seems alright generally, but Tjarks is amazingly bad. Like, Bill Simmons is better to listen to about basketball than him because he is just as wrong but doesn't dress it up like he's all informed and smart.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized

Declan MacManus posted:

He was a good shooter for a few years and mysteriously dropped off

Last year he was horrible from three, but this year he's back up to 38% on four attempts per game.

His 2012-13 season, arguably the greatest single season of any player in NBA history, he shot 40.9% from three.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
Durant and Lebron are both supernaturally good finishers at the rim.

Min 3 shot attempts per game in the restricted area:



Durant and Lebron and then a load of centers.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized

Rick posted:

Latest Woj podcast is really trying to sell the idea of staying in school if you aren't a top ten pick. The argument is you won't get paid all that much anyway due to two way contracts. Also you don't want to go to the combine and then go back to college because teams have made up their mind on players who have done that, which is why like, Trier's stock hasn't gone up even though he's played better this year.

On the other hand, getting paid $60k to play in the G-League™ is better than getting paid nothing to 'go to school'.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized

Paul Zuvella posted:

D league players make nowhere near that, dude.

That's the estimated value of the two way contracts in the new CBA.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
After watching UCLA-Kentucky last night, the first college game I watched all season, my definitive expert opinion:

Lonzo Ball - great vision and passer for a college player, good size and length for a 1, his jump shot is janky as gently caress and there's no way imho he will be able to get it off consistently enough and quick enough to better than average from the NBA three range. It also holds back his ability to create his own shot because he doesn't have great athleticism to drive by NBA guards (though he did look a reliable and creative finisher at the rim when he got in the paint) and his handle is no better than decent. If he had a smooth and fast release that isn't as much of a problem as JJ Reddick, Kyle Korver etc. show where you snap off shots on catch and shoots, coming off screens, quick stepbacks etc. but because his shot is messed up he won't be able to do that when guarded tightly by superior athletes. His vision, passing and size alone makes me think his floor is starter level point guard, but unless he remodels his shot I simply can't see him being all-star level. At the moment he's a 6'6" Ricky Rubio with better rim finishing and not quite as good defence - which is a nice player but not a franchise player.

De'Aaron Fox - looked great obviously, but the question is can he do it when he's not comfortably the most athletic player on the floor? He looked very quick and bouncy, but not quite Russell Westbrook/John Wall level to me, so he won't be able to rely solely on that in the NBA. Ran the pick and roll pretty well, his midrange game seemed alright, handle was generally solid but he did lose it a few times when driving. Kentucky don't really run anything approaching an NBA offense so tough to gauge how he could run the point. If he improves his outside shot and works on his dribbling skills then he will be a good 2-guard at the very least.

Malik Monk - I was very impressed by him. Shot well coming off screens, catch and shoots, and was able to create his own shot when in possession too with some nice stepbacks, step throughs and hop steps. Showed great range, his shot is fluid, quick and repeatable. Didn't get frustrated when early on he barely touched the ball. Took shots intelligently and wasn't just bombing it even when he got hot in the second half. In the current NBA climate a player with a good, rangy jump shot who can create their own shot is gold dust.

These are my snap judgement verdicts, please tell me how wrong I am.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
Small ball center = a center who can score outside the paint and/or switch on defense
Small center = a traditional post player and rim protector who is just shorter than average

In my head anyway.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized

WhyteRyce posted:

INSERT NAME HERE has a 90% chance of being a bust if drafted by the Kings

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
Drafted by the Pelicans tho

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized

Declan MacManus posted:

Serviceable bigs are way harder to find than serviceable guards just because of the distribution of people born in the world who can play PF/C

Correct, but in the modern NBA every team needs two guards and five on your roster, as opposed to one big to start and maybe three on a roster. If you look at teams around the league now far more need to upgrade their guards - starters or rotation depth - than do their bigs.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized

morestuff posted:

Ford's also saying Giles might sneak into the 5-10 range if he's cleared by doctors, which sounds crazy.
Same thing as Thon Maker last year - before the season their potential has everyone hyped and they are projected top 5/top 10, then the playing starts and they get poo poo on by everyone for not actually being very good on the court, but then the basketball stops and every GM starts going 'hmmm, that potential though....' - and it only takes one team to really love him.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized

Kibner posted:

The Ringer made a pretty cool draft summary site: http://nbadraft.theringer.com

quote:

Frank Ntilikana

A defensive stopper at the point guard spot with excellent feel, but his rawness leaves his upside a complete mystery.

Best-Case Scenario: George Hill, Jeremy Lin

quote:

A defensive stopper

quote:

Jeremy Lin

:crossarms:

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized

Yeah this makes no sense to me at all. From all the analysis I've read it seems like Fultz is a 9/10 prospect (Anthony Davis, KAT being 10/10s) and then there is a group of seven or eight 8/10 guys below that are roughly interchangeable depending on need and preference.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
If the Sacremento pick swap comes through for Philly that place may take off into outer earth orbit.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
Embiid saying 'Trust The Process' three times in a 30 second interview.


I love this man.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
That Mavs guy had a double lung transplant? Holy hell.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized

illcendiary posted:

Didn't Ernst & Young screw up the Oscars? :tinfoil:

PwC

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
PICK SWAP ACTIVATED

edit maybe

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
https://twitter.com/NStauskas11/status/864645917881782272

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
Philadelphia receives:

Nik Stauskas
Carl Landry
Jason Thompson
2017 3rd pick
2019 Kings first round pick (unprotected)

Sacramento receives:

2017 5th pick
Artūras Gudaitis (2015 47th pick)
Luka Mitrović (2015 60th pick)

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized

Cool Buff Man posted:

Jaylen Brown is gonna be a drat good defender



I think he will be too, however bear in mind in with stats he matched up disproportionately against second unit guys this year.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
Because their dad made them take multiple 40ft shots per game since middle school and if you are 10 years old in order to generate enough power to get the ball anywhere near the basket from that far out you end up developing really weird mechanics.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized

Fast Luck posted:

My very stupid opinion is that Ainge is addicted to collecting assets, so the Sixers should give him their #3 pick this year and their pick next year and Okafor or whatever to move up to #1 for Fultz

That seems like an overpay for a guy who's outlook is 'very probably going to be a really good player', but not 'virtual lock franchise player' a la Anthony Davis pre-draft.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
Thon Maker was a huge reach at 10 too, but he looks like he's going to be a good pick there. Even though he is 27.

Draft express had him mocked to go 32nd on the 1st June 2016 and 35th on the 16th June only to bump him up to 10 in their final mock right before the draft, so presumably they got inside info that the Bucks were going to take him.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized

C. Everett Koop posted:

I think we all can agree that the worst has been Charlotte by far.

2016: no picks
2015: Kaminsky at 9
2014: Dwight Powell at 45 (traded two weeks after the draft)
2013: Cody Zeller at 4
2012: MKG at 2

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized

DeimosRising posted:

There is a light coating of shed skin cells on athletic hand freak kids who have possibly not heard of basketball but also grew up poor and smart. Poor nerds are excellent learners

These are my favourite gambles in the draft outside the top ten or so. 6'11" with a 7'6" wingspan and freakish agility that but picked up a basketball for the first time at age 15? Sign me up! 5% chance you get Hakeem, Giannis, Mutombo, Embiid, 95% chance you are laughed at for the next decade for picking him.

I feel like guys like that either turn into multiple all-star franchise centrepieces, or are out of the league inside three years. So at least they don't clog up your roster and cap room as a replacement level rotation player like a lot of failed top picks do.

Actually, like how Dirk's success meant for about five years around the turn of the century everyone was drafting 'next Dirk' tall Europeans with a jump shot types, maybe Giannis' success means the next couple of drafts are going to see it become fashionable to take high pick flyers on raw as gently caress international players.

tanglewood1420 fucked around with this message at 14:35 on May 27, 2017

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized

Rick posted:

It'd sure be a lot easier to hide him on defense at the 4, well, until teams go small.
All the analysis of Simmons prior to the draft was that he has the athleticism, agility and instinct to potentially be a very good defender of 3s and 4s. It was his lack of effort that was concerning, not his lack of ability or game intelligence. Obviously some players never improve in that regard and are lazy defenders throughout their career, but he would hardly be the first player in the world who didn't give a crap defensively in college (on a lovely team no less) that ends up being a solid NBA defender.

It's exactly the same knock on Fultz too - great defensive tools, but rarely used them and had inconsistent effort defensively. That both were on lovely teams that were clearly going nowhere is not a coincidence.

Also Simmons was a really excellent rebounder in college. If you play him guarding 1s on the perimeter you lose some of that.

tanglewood1420 fucked around with this message at 03:43 on May 30, 2017

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
This is going to be a fun draft to look back on in five or six years, because it feels like to me that the top 12 picks are going to breakdown into 4 all-stars, 3 mid to low end starters, 3 useful rotation guys and 2 total busts - but I have no idea really which players will end up in which category.

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
Which one of Zach Collins, TJ Leaf and Tyler Lydon are Charlotte going to draft at 11?

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized

Deadbeat Dad posted:

This is going to be one of those nutso offseasons that happen every few years eh

Every few years? When was the last non-nutso offseason?

2016 - Durant, Wade
2015 - DeAndre Jordan and Capapalooza
2014 - Lebron, Wiggins-Love trade

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized

EvanTH posted:

Ain't Finland up there among the top-most average-heightiest nations in the world (Scandinavia in general lacking ever so slightly behind the Balkans)? Seems like a nation that should do well to take up basketball and I wish y'all the best.

but STOP PLAYING HANDBALL IT'S A SILLY SPORT!

Finland is not in Scandinavia and Finns don't like it when you call them Scandinavian hth.

Nordic is acceptable.

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tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
Well with someone from Northern Ireland you've got a 50/50 shot with that, sounds like you just got unlucky.

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