NFL Draft Thread 2017 - Oil up my Head Edition

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Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

I believe that opening a draft thread early is kinda silly as we're not even bowl season yet but I understand there are a lot of fans out there already looking ahead. Might as well start up a depository for Browns posting.

What is the NFL Draft?
All 32 NFL teams get together and select from a pool of draft eligible players. There are seven rounds of the draft with additional compensation picks or forfeiture of picks for a total of about 224 players drafted each year.

Where is the NFL Draft
This year it's in Philadelphia after taking place in Chicago last year. Typically the draft was held in Radio City Music Hall in NYC but the owners and Goodell decided to start moving the venue.

When is the NFL Draft?
The NFL Draft occurs once a year, typically in the spring time after the NFL Combine. I say this because Commissioners love to move the date around, or in Goodell's case, break the draft up into three days in order to take advantage of prime time television. This year the draft is April 27th through April 29th.

How do I find out more about the NFL Draft?
I prefer to look at a bunch of different sources. Every draft pundit has a bias due to how they perceive valuable assets in football

Can I get some NFL people to follow?
Sure!
Mike Mayock is a former safety with the Giants and has a decent head on his shoulders. Good at explaining what he looks for in a prospect and what he looks for in a drill.
Bob McGinn is a reporter for the Milwaukee Journal. All his information is with Packers needs in mind but his information is invaluable due to his direct contacts with anonymous NFL scouts. Will present multiple view points from these sources without editing or spin.
Josh Norris writes for NBC's Rotoworld website. No football experience but plugged into CFB throughout the year.

Can I get some mock drafts?
No!
I think mock drafts are stupid and only exist as clickbait. You can literally click on any single mock draft website and get the same garbage.

Ok fine, who are the top players this year, my team needs a QB, WR, CB, RB, OT, TE, OG, DT, DE, OLB, ILB, SS, C, FS, and definitely a new kicker.
It's so early to tell. Here's how I rank what influences media perception the most, which is how you and I get all our information, unless your dad works for nintendo and can get you those sweet insider secrets:
1. Draft Combine Results
2. Rumors leading up to the draft, typically in the time period between combine results and the actual draft.
3. Bowl and Playoff Results
4. What those stupid fucks at ESPN said
5. Actual game film and season performance.

As you can see I'm a bit jaded. Regardless I believe, with scientific analytical evidence(!), that NFL teams are generally good at identifying NFL talent. This is because there is a long process of evaluation. We're in the early stages of that evaluation so, with that being said, here are my top 5 right now:

1. Jabrill Peppers, S/OLB, Michigan - Do it all utility knife player in an elite defense. Superb athlete. Can cover receivers, guard the flats, plug gaps, and blitz the QB. Most complete defensive back since Eric Berry or Earl Thomas. Questions about where to play him at the next level.
2. Jonathan Allen, DE/DT, Alabama - I believe he was the top prospect in the country when he committed to Bama. Huge tweener defensive end that has the burst and speed to play the edge. Would have declared last year if he didn't get injured.
3. Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M - Another top prospect. Unbelievable first step, reminds me of Demarcus Ware or Osi Umenyiora. Runs a ton of stunts and lines up all over the line. Needs to get bigger in the upper body and to take his explosiveness inside instead of curling around OTs.
4. Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU - Huge, powerful back that moves like a bullet. Takes college defenders for extra yards and can leave them in the dust with spins and cuts. Missed a big chunk of the season with an ankle injury.
5. Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State - Unbelievably athletic for a man his size. Absolutely wrecks pockets with a variety of power and finesse moves. Needs to get better at resetting after the punch and manning his gap.

Ok there you go guys. Remember, everything is bound to change before April.

# ¿ Nov 10, 2016 22:43

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# ¿ Apr 28, 2024 07:40

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Intruder posted:

Are there any non-garbage QBs in this draft

QBs:

I don't really like Kizer that much. Runs a lot and has a long delivery but not a very powerful throw. Very accurate though and can throw on the run. Reminds me of Geno or Tannehill.

Kaaya's cool. He goes through reads and is asked to take passes out of pro sets even though he does a lot in shotgun. Rushes passes a lot and will throw before pressure gets there. Decent pocket presence though.

Trubisky's throw is kinda long but he's able to bomb it. Looks good squaring his shoulders before throwing. Underrated runner too.

Watson reminds me a lot of Mariota. Really bad thrower. Wildly inaccurate. Spread 'em out shotgun type that likes to hit slant and comeback routes. There was a time when that type of QB would suck in the NFL but now Dak exists so, whatever.

Mahomes is another spread shotgun QB that has a hell of an arm. Makes really wild, stupid throws that always seem to work out. I'm talking hop passes and falling forward bombs. Has absolutely zero pocket presence and runs at the first sign of pressure. I think I'm reusing Manziel evaluations but I really like watching Mahomes so whatever.

Chad Kelly was the top dog going in but is playing himself out of the first day. Looks the part and throws a really nice ball but makes a ton of really boneheaded mistakes. Shotgun only QB with questionable ability to throw under pressure. Also might get himself hurt one day with how he runs the ball.

My intriguing prospect of the year is actually a QB and his name is Brady Gustafson. Shotgun only giant of a QB for Montana that's built like a twig and throws incredible passes. Has a tough time when the pocket collapses and likes to step up into pressure. Still though, he throws NFL caliber passes all over the field. Should be fun to watch him if he gets combine invites.

Overall I'd say this class doesn't have a clear #1 yet but looks pretty deep. Next year has :siren:

lamar fuckin jackson :siren:

tho

# ¿ Nov 11, 2016 07:11

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

warcrimes posted:

He'd make a great slot receiver/return man. I'd put his value around the fourth round.

I think McCaffrey is rightfully a top 75 pick at this moment and big enough to play RB in the NFL. I'm just worried Stanford already ran him into the ground like Schiano did with Ray Rice.

He could stand to put on a bit more weight though, but that's true of pretty much every rookie RB.

# ¿ Nov 12, 2016 05:01

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

TheGreyGhost posted:

As a sad, degenerate Browns fan, here's a slightly more thorough breakdown of this (somewhat butt) QB class. Here's my current top 5

Deshone Kizer Notre Dame - So, as a Browns fan, I have some not great memories of the faults of Brady Quinn. Specifically, the fact that he was a super accurate passer who was jacked as gently caress but turned out to not have a great arm and not be smart enough to read a defense. The Smith/Tannehill comparison is okay if you want to describe his scramble/roll ability, but it's really not an accurate description of his real issues. His delivery is elongated specifically through the middle of his body, which means he has a nasty habit of short-arming it and launching from a lower release point than he should from trying to rush through the motion in time. His footwork further aggravates his throwing, with a tendency to take overly wide stances or throw diagonally across his stance rather than directly through the stance. As a result, his arm looks like it has range and touch but not much velocity, but his high-speed is there when he's able to keep his feet straight and narrow enough and not reaching too far back. Similarly, he has a really nice deep ball when the defense gives him time to throw it, and I bet he can get it out even faster with some mechanical tutelage. He could theoretically fit anywhere but is largely a matter of what an OC/QBs coach is able to teach him and create a system around and would be best suited to an offense with a very established run game and play-action threat so that he's not asked to go out there and sling it heavily by himself.

Physically, he's exactly what I want in the modern NFL at around 6'3"-6'4" 230 with arm talent masked by his technique and tje speed to be a scramble threat, and he does apparently have a good work ethic. I worry about his adjustment period since Kelly's offense really doesn't require tight window throws, with a lot of RPOs, quick hitches, slants, and Go routes that frankly resembles a lot of what Mariota was asked to do when he was coming out. He's smart enough to check down when nothing opens up quick, but that can turn into a bad habit in the NFL when you have to throw guys open or don't immediately recognize what's in front of you. He's had multiple sacks this year where he just outright fails to recognize delayed blitzes or ends coming in his peripheral vision, and that lack of proximal awareness looks really bad on film in terms of the hits he lets himself take. I also worry about him in the locker room with how bad his team has looked at points, but a lot of that could be due to Brian Kelly making that program toxic as gently caress right now. He's risky, but he could turn out to be a franchise QB if the right team gets him.

Deshaun Watson Clemson - Just a year ago he would've probably been the top overall pick in a landslide over Goff/Wentz. Now, we've seen the problems with him at present, and they are multiple. First, his mechanics have gotten far less consistent, which may be a matter of his offense allowing him to regress a lot with how good the talent around him is. If you watch his footwork, he has every bad habit you can really have as a modern spread QB in terms of his feet not squaring up, throwing off of his front foot, or falling off with the ball in motion. What's worse, those habits get worse when he has to force the ball out during a blitz, meaning he's not taking advantage of man coverage and vulnerable to turning it over without having to blanket him. His arm motion doesn't hitch or hang, but he does float the ball out of his hand a lot. Part of that is probably his footwork, and he really needs to get his weight transfer and feet correct because he doesn't zip the ball the way he needs to at the next level since his reads right now are very very easy. A lot of the time, that doesn't burn him since the Clemson offense loves slants, back shoulder passes, go routes, and screens, but that's changed in a big way this year. Clemson has tried to incorporate far more intermediate and deep routes over the middle to keep people from just sitting in Cover 3 and taking the boundaries away, but that's a problem when you float balls or have the mechanical issues he does since LBs and safeties aren't predictable the same way CBs are if you force them into man on the edges with spacing. A lot of his picks have come on deep ins, inside seams, posts, and 50/50 balls that you simply cannot get away with less than top velocity on, since he absolutely forces the ball if his boundary guys are covered. He also has a lot of balls swatted by guys in the front 7 or in Man, largely because he'll stare down receivers which can't happen if you're floating balls. His deep accuracy is okay but has regressed without his offensive line absolutely stoning dudes every week, with a decent amount of overthrows from too much loft rather than too much zip which you don't want to see. I think almost all of this can be fixed mechanically, but I would be extremely worried about him in any heavily vertical offense that can't risk slow balls. His touch is good, and I think he could be great in play action, so he would be a great fit for a west-coast system or even the teams incorporating spread elements but is not the guy you're going to want throwing to the seams or post routes.

Physically, he's slight, and it's concerning. He's been mostly resilient as a full-time starter, but you really want him putting on 15 pounds before you feel comfortable even at 6'2-6'3" since he's likely around 210-215. I think his arm has talent to at least zip the ball at the caliber of the average NFL QB, but that technique of his is killing him. He's fast enough to be a serious threat, but you don't want to be running him if you're picking him where he's projected right now. He's apparently a smart kid and has had audible/protection responsibility dating back to high school, but you'll really need to work on his reads of risk/reward for non-boundary throws to feel totally confident before giving him the keys at the next level. High amount of risk for a ceiling that's lower than we want to admit. Last year he would've gotten a Mariota comparison, but this year he looks like I imagine EJ Manuel would have if he got to play in a spread that hid a lot of his weaknesses.

Brad Kaaya Miami(FL) - I really really like Kaaya's game. His arm strength is good but not great, but he shows zip on things like flag/out routes that you absolutely need for the NFL, even if his deep balls hang a bit. He has probably the best footwork in the class and moves fairly well in his throwing motion, though I would like to see him trust his plant foot a little more when he's throwing short since he has an odd tendency to pop up or release a little high rather than through which can put some balls in the dirt. He shows precision in under-center drops that's uncommon in this era. His arm movement grades out highly and is compact enough to be sudden while releasing high enough to be very accurate. He is very very very accurate with his ball placement and hits tight windows in Richt's offense which is extremely exciting if you're a team with a turnover machine at QB right now. His pocket presence and movement is good enough that he's not going to take an obnoxious amount of sacks but shows a tendency to not move forward or towards his targets when pressured which can create some dangerous passing situations. Kaaya's biggest issue is that he stares down a lot of receivers and doesn't always move through progressions quickly, which has to change in an NFL offense. He will have an easier time learning that than other QBs in the class largely because his receivers run a full route tree and won't create a huge gap in practical knowledge a lot of spread QBs will face. He's not the athlete Watson or Kizer is, but he can scramble if absolutely needed. He's realistically capable of starting anywhere.

Physically, he's a bit skinny, but he absolutely has the size to pack 10-15 pounds on and be durable at the next level. He's been starting for a while, and he has shown a command over his offense that few QBs really get to at this level. If you can fix some of his mental habits, he's low-risk and has got the highest floor in this class.

Mitch Trubisky UNC - I've watched him dating back clear to Mentor High School, and he's always been a drastically underrated player at every level. His arm strength is great, especially on deep balls, and he's not going to miss balls or toss interceptions from lack of zip. His footwork is largely consistent and shows good plant/step mechanics with proper squaring, but his release bothers me a little bit. I don't want to compare him to Tebow, but his problem is a milder case of the extended semi-circle delivery you saw out of him coming out, though I think his mechanic. It's a wind-up, and it'll need to be shortened, but it's far from a death sentence with the velocity he shows. I like how accurate he is, though the UNC offense doesn't require much in terms of tight throws or extensive progressions, and he'll have to prove some ability in the combine throwing sessions given his lack of starting experience. If you put him in a vertical offense with a good QBs coach who can work on his delivery, I think he's a real problem for people to deal with at the next level. Would love to see someone like the Chargers draft him and stash him behind Rivers for a year or two then unleash him.

Physically, he's got the size to hold up well at the next level and moves well for his size. He's only started for a year which will be a red flag for some organizations, but it's not like the guy ahead of him was some mediocre QB that inexplicably was in there. He'll likely need to be trained on protections/audibles with how Fedora's ball-to-the-wall verticals and pace offense works, but I like his potential. He could turn out really nicely with not a lot of work, bit of a moderate risk/reward investment.

Pat Mahomes Texas Tech - Ordinarily, we have Tech QBs with baby arms who are very accurate game managers that get boosted by their system. Mahomes is not that. This guy throws balls into traffic whenever he wants, and it somehow has been working out which may be because he has probably the biggest arm in this class. I wouldn't be shocked to hear some Jamarcus-level comparisons of it, considering he's chucked it like 80 yards off his back foot in games, and it's not even really floating on that either. His accuracy is really suspect, though he hits his underneath routes as needed. I think a lot of that accuracy is from his godawful footwork. Manziel comparisons will be made, but he moves so much worse than even Johnny did that it's really hard to find a comparison that made it to the NFL recently. Maybe Terelle Pryor when he first came out. I'm talking "looks like he threw the ball from the shotgun without ever taking a step" levels of not caring about what his feet do. He doesn't square up, throws off the front foot, and even has had a throw that resembled a jump pass thrown 30 yards down field because he felt pressure coming. His arm motion is really inconsistent as a result with a launch point entirely dependent on whatever Pat Mahomes decides is appropriate on the play. It usually works out but will drive his future OC absolutely bonkers. I feel like a lot of his issues come from Tech's O-line being one of the absolute worst I've ever seen in my life at that level, and he ends up running for his life so much that his funslinger tendencies may have even been learned as survival habits. When he (rarely) get a chance to read his full progression, he does show competence, though the route trees there remain very abbreviated.

He's been absolutely shellacked in terms of taking hits and having to throw often, so there's some durability concerns. I'm willing to bet he's smarter than he looks on field, but you're going to have to completely rebuild him from the ground up. If you get the absolute best-case scenario, he's an All-Pro MVP caliber player, but that's a very very very high risk with some huge walls to climb. Manziel didn't have his physical tools. I think he's Jake Locker frankly.

Chad Kelly - Oh god how is this guy Jim Kelly's nephew. He plays football like Brett Favre after the concussions, and it's hard to look away. His arm is really strong, probably only behind Mahomes in the class, and he can zip it at will. The accuracy though is a little different. When he has time to set, he's really really good at hitting very deep and very shoot things like slants and deep balls in stride, and his touch is better than you would expect. However, he absolutely will throw balls up for guys thinking it's just a jump ball situation only for that to go horribly wrong on him. It's like he can do everything deep and everything short, but nothing in the middle will make you feel good about him. Lots of Manziel YOLO balls without a Mike Evans/Treadwell there to cover for him A lot of that is his pocket presence, since I think he hurries himself on things like a 15 yard dig and ends up bring the pressure to him which forces bad or off-throws. We know he can make the proper footwork happen, but his inability to manage pressure effectively is really troubling considering he will absolutely face blitzes as an NFL rookie. I think he can scramble but absolutely should not be allowed to until he gets more comfortable in the pocket. Might be really dumb honestly

He's big enough to probably be okay, but he just got injured which will absolutely tank his stock. He's also got enough attitude problems I probably wouldn't go after him between him DMing porn stars, getting kicked off of Clemson, and getting into a fight at his little brother's high school football game. Has the potential to be great, but will need an absurd amount of work and potentially classes on reading.

Quick hits on other guys:

Davis Webb - Do not draft a Cal Bear Raid QB with a baby arm and no NFL route throws. Literally Jared Goff.
Mason Rudolph - Also never draft OK State QBs who are basically young Brandon Weeden. Less than mobile with strong arm in wide open air raid system that relies on two excellent receivers that it doesn't matter if you stare at because they'll be open? Pass.
Cooper Rush - Probably ends up in the AFL with that name
CJ Beathard - Destined to be a Kansas City backup in my mind right now. Pro-style credentials and a good, if not great arm, but has gotten the stuffing knocked out of him and has very limited routes to throw in Satan's offense. Matt Flynn.
Seth Rusell - Literally just faster Bryce Petty. That Baylor offense does not translate right now because the NFL still requires an insane amount of throwing in the middle of the field to survive. He's athletic when running and has a good arm, but his accuracy is mediocre with no real experience doing what he'd need to do. Also baylor
Josh Dobbs - Might be the worst passer people are pretending is any good in CFB right now. Literally cannot throw accurately to safe his life. His receivers would probably put up at least 2 or 3 1000 yard seasons amongst themselves if he was even slightly better/had better blocking. Might be a WR conversion. Denard Robinson.
Brady Gustafson - Will get taken in the 2nd or 3rd round because he throws like a boss even if it's for Montana. Bob Stitt's thrown a lot tighter of an offense together this year because he doesn't have to adjust for QBs with weak arms or anything like that, and it shows in this kid. Obviously still isn't an NFL or Pro system, but will show better on tape than almost everyone on this list.This year's Garroppolo/Wentz.
Zach Terrell - Future 3rd string backup who will start a game for the Browns at some point. Shows good accuracy and average arm strength while destroy MAC defenses with the best receiver in that conference in a while. Makes NFL-type throws against bad competition. Scott Tolzien.
Nate Peterman - No
Patrick Towles - Couldn't start at Kentucky so went to BC. Longer delivery than Tebow with less accuracy. Might actually be Tim Tebow if he let himself and stopped working out.
Trevor Knight - Injured and has piss poor accuracy. Live arm and runs well but can't hit the broad side of a barn. Bad footwork from air raid habits. CFL Tony Pike with legs.
Mitch Leidner - Former Todd McShay first rounder. Has a good arm that gets overstated because Minnesota will never run a play that actually stretches it to its limit meaning he always looks good. Terrible footwork in the pocket. Like, he might have anti-dexterity that makes defenders instinctively move closer to him. Inaccurate on the professional throws he makes, especially his 5 step drops. Will probably get drafted too early by someone and then cut before training camp. Looks like Tyler Wilson to me.

Just read through all of this. Really solid analysis imo

# ¿ Nov 12, 2016 16:43

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Eagles needs are WR, OL, and DB

Corey Davis seems like the best WR this draft. Is he actually any good?

Is Lamar Jackson 2.0?

I like Davis but this is a weak WR class and I think he's going to get overdrafted with too much expectations. He's got a lot of work to do with his jump ball skills and his first steps off the line. Also there's obvious competition issues.

Lamar Jackson is some weird love-baby of Vick and a woman who has remarkable intermediate game accuracy. Totally unique player and I really hope Louisville makes the playoffs now that there's a massive shakeup because I want to watch more of him.

# ¿ Nov 13, 2016 08:16

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

kidcoelacanth posted:

Dear America: please stop making receivers named Mike Williams

This one doesn't even play like the other Mike Wiliamses but I guarantee you there will be a comparison at some point during this process by a major talking head.

# ¿ Nov 16, 2016 21:47

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Crunkjuice posted:

How are the running backs looking in this class?

Top tier. No generational guys like Gurley or ADP but a ton of great open field runners and interesting athletes. Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, Wayne Gallman, Nick Chubb, Royce Freeman, Leonard Fournette, and D'onta Foreman. Only problem is they're all juniors and might not make the leap. loving Fournette might even go back.

# ¿ Nov 16, 2016 21:51

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

No Irish Need Imply posted:

Is this draft class bad/shallow enough that a team would give their first for AJ McCarron?

I'd say what the gently caress are you talking about but then again Charlie Whitehurst was flipped for a second rounder to a pretty smart organization.

QB isn't elite but it's got ok quality. This isn't a draft class with a ridiculous amount of players in one position either like last year's DT bonanza. Then again it's not even bowl season yet.

# ¿ Nov 17, 2016 07:10

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Sataere posted:

Bumping this for PrinceRandom

Really want to know this too

Also, what are considered the strengths and weaknesses of this draft class? Honestly, I am curious how this is evaluated from year to year.

OTs are pretty weak this year. The class right now appears to have one premier talent in Cam Robinson but then a bunch of road graders behind him that aren't necessarily worth a top 25 pick due to their pass blocking skills but should get snapped up for teams needing LGs/RTs. Taylor Moton is an intriguing prospect, pretty much every skill position player from that Western Michigan team's is. Shows lateral quickness and has a good first step burst. Also looks like he bullies his competition, which is a good thing if your competition is considered weaker. Ryan Ramczyk is the dude from Wisconsin that has been owning people all year. Seems like a really good interior guy or RT at the next level. Moves surprisingly quick for a guy his size and can pull or go to the next level. Only problem is he's raw as gently caress and will probably get picked on by more experienced NFL d-linemen while he learns how to pick up advanced blitz's and pass moves. Roderick Johnson is a road grader. Opens huge holes and finishes blocks. Completely immobile with just an ok first step. Will most definitely be a RT at the next level.

There's more but I'll do a better write up as we get closer to the end of bowl season.

Also strengths and weaknesses of draft classes are decided by athleticism comparative to past drills performed in previous years, production during the season, media hype, and the good ol fashioned eye test. Usually most of this stuff is decided closer towards the combine than right now.

# ¿ Nov 19, 2016 18:14

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

I guess I gotta watch more tape on Trubisky cus I'm not really loving him at this point

# ¿ Nov 21, 2016 19:03

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Alaois posted:

Mitch Trubinsky is fool's gold

Trubisky seems to have top tier accuracy on seam routes but is kinda spotty on deep verticals. The UNC offense is a lot like Carr's offense at Fresno State a few years ago. Tons of screens and sideline verticals with a sprinkling of seam and slant routes. His balls float and he doesn't seem to have the arm to make those on the fly 60 yard bombs that Stafford or Carr can make which hit their vert routes in stride instead of making the receiver come back for the ball. I don't think he has NFL quality mobility but he moves well in the pocket and when he's flushed out of it. Takes some easy sacks tho. He could definitely have a place in the league considering how fast his release time seems to be.

Oh and after watching a few games I really like this Ryan Switzer guy. He has some really awesome open field moves and has some great burst and agility. I could definitely see a team snapping him up in the top 125

# ¿ Nov 22, 2016 02:13

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Turns out I work with someone who's father was Jabrill Peppers' high school coach and housed Peppers for a year or two. Apparently his family are a bunch of scum bags, which is hilarious considering I just saw a rotoworld blurb about how his mom is sending out these huge packets of questions to vet future agents.

# ¿ Nov 30, 2016 22:35

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Alaois posted:

I can't imagine that a guy from Paramus would ever look down on a family from East Orange.

True, that's important to note. I suppose you take everything with a grain of salt but apparently his home life was bad enough that he had to live with friends and coaches for a while. Apparently he's a good kid so whatever, I just wish sometimes players would vet their parents.

# ¿ Nov 30, 2016 23:06

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

mastershakeman posted:

^^ did you watch last year's title game because o.j. howard lit it up

only one qb ? gently caress

Take Kiper's rankings with a grain of salt. The man's an actual moron plus we're not even past bowl season yet. This time last year the top QBs were Paxton Lynch, Connor Cook, and Jared Goff and Paxton Lynch was seriously getting talked up in the top 15.

Epi Lepi posted:

Is Jake Butt actually going to be drafted or is he just a funny as gently caress name?

Probably top 50 right now but there are seriously a ton of TEs this year.

# ¿ Dec 1, 2016 23:52

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

wandler20 posted:

He was also very high on Wentz from the start. He was his #2 senior QB nearly all of the college season last year nad eventually took the top spot.

I was very high on Wentz and called him early on in the season too. Doesn't mean I'm any more right than he was. What irks me about Kiper is that his evaluations are nonsensical. He'll flip flop on opinions or give an example of the players physical talent that isn't being displayed on tape.

He'll also quote college stats a lot which irks the gently caress out of me. It just seems so lazy to bring up a RB's YPC or a DE's sack numbers instead of talking about the prospect. It's like he doesn't realize that college football is a completely different monster than professional. Prospects will perform completely based on situations outside of their control. Spread QBs will have insanely high accuracy ratings because they are usually hitting wide open guys on comeback and slant routes. RBs on teams with all 5-star o-linemen are of course going to gash defenses that are made up of 2-4 star d-linemen. Jadeveon Clowney's sack numbers were down his last college season because he was hurt and literally getting triple teamed. Kiper just doesn't take this crap into account when he does those clickbait ranks. Not his fault that he's got bills to pay and made a living based on his own efforts of popularizing the draft. I just think he's a lovely, knee jerk evaluator.

# ¿ Dec 2, 2016 04:23

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

warcrimes posted:

Last year someone posted a list of Kiper's mock drafts over the last few years and a "what if" if teams had followed his advice. It was a solid job by him, he knows his poo poo.

Post it again because that'd be fun to see if this is at all true or not entirely subjective

Demon Of The Fall posted:

Derek Barnett will be a better pro than Miles Garrett, book it daddio

Maybe. Garrett is undoubtedly more physically talented but Barnett does all the right stuff. It's comparable to that Clemson situation last year with Shaq Lawson and Kevin Dodd. Garrett's first step looks like young Demarcus Ware and he has the strength to translate it to the next level. Barnett's a technician that can man gaps, close out the flats, stunt, rush the passer, or play the spy on the RB. He just seems not outstandingly athletic or quick though, and he does get lost on bigger blockers like in the Bama game.

I like Barnett but I just really like Garrett and am really excited to watch him in the NFL.

Oh and both were beat up by Cam Robinson sooo

Doltos fucked around with this message at 17:59 on Dec 2, 2016

# ¿ Dec 2, 2016 17:55

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

ulmont posted:

http://www.phillyvoice.com/your-teams-first-round-picks-if-mel-kipers-initial-mock-drafts-were-100-accurate/

Looks like a 50/50 or even worse bust to success rate for most teams which is bad considering how they only listed first round picks that were consensus top 150 players at the time of selection:

Kiper posted:

Eagles - LB Navorro Bowman, OT Gabe Carimi, LB Luke Kuechly, CB Dee Milliner, WR Kelvin Benjamin, CB Marcus Peters.

Cowboys - OT Bruce Campbell, CB Prince Amukamara, OG David DeCastro, OG Jonathan Cooper, S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, DT Jordan Phillips.

Redskins - QB Sam Bradford, QB Cam Newton, CB Morris Claiborne, DE Randy Gregory.

Giants - DE Carlos Dunlap, C Mike Pouncey, OT Zebrie Sanders, DE Sam Montgomery, LB C.J. Mosley, OG Brandon Scherff.

Eagles get a great LB, bust OT, great LB, bust CB, ok WR, great CB. Cowboys get a bust OT, ok CB, good OG, bust OG, ok S, and ok DT. Giants get a good DE, a good C, a bust OT, bust DE, ok LB, ok OG. Redskins get Bradford then set up their #1 pick with Cam Newton next year followed by a turnaround bust CB and a bust DE.

I could go through every division but I hope you guys are getting the point that Kiper is no better than a coin flip.

Doltos fucked around with this message at 20:31 on Dec 2, 2016

# ¿ Dec 2, 2016 20:22

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Again I think most people have a coinflip success rate at predicting prospects because prospects fail or succeed based on a myriad of reasons. What I don't like about Kiper is that his reasoning behind prospect rankings seem to be entirely click bait and influenced by media opinion, often his own in a desperate attempt to sound like he has exclusive information.

# ¿ Dec 2, 2016 22:10

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Diva Cupcake posted:

Mitch Trubisky seems to be getting the high-riser treatment that always happens before a QB gets taken top 5.

Can he succeed with such a poo poo name? The only Mitch to ever make a Pro Bowl was Mitch Berger and he was a loving punter.

Nope. Last name is weak as hell too. Seems like he should be playing at Boise State and thus should be a 6th round QB

# ¿ Dec 7, 2016 17:33

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Eli Apple looks bad in coverage and good against the run. Stands to reason since he was raw as gently caress coming out and is quite a big person. He might have a very unique career arc of x-corner -> slot corner -> weakside lb

# ¿ Dec 8, 2016 23:54

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Spintzel posted:

Welp time to add OU and Stoops to the gently caress them forever group of college teams. Can't wait for 20 years where we look back at this poo poo in absolute awe

There's already worse cases from 20 years ago. High horses in football never solve anything anyways.

Real Name Grover posted:

Giving up on Hackenberg so soon? C'mon Jets

I'd give up on Hack and my franchise after taking him in the 2nd

# ¿ Dec 19, 2016 17:24

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Benne posted:

OK, let's go over the QBs and find out who has the best football names. I'll just go through the top 10 as ranked here: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2017/QB

Mitch Trubisky -- As mentioned before, garbage-tier name. Worse than Blake Bortles. F

DeShone Kizer -- I like the last name. Rolls off the tongue with force. Lots of potential for "Kaiser" puns if you're a history nerd. A-

Deshaun Watson -- Kinda generic, but perfectly serviceable. It at least sells the idea of an exciting, dynamic athlete. B+

Brad Kayaa -- I should like this more, but the surname is confusing at first glance. Is it pronounced KAY-a? Kay-AA? Either way, the first name ruins it for me. "Brad" is an accountant name, not a QB name. C

Mason Rudolph -- Total goober name, but not as offensive as Mitch Trubisky. D

Chad Kelly -- I have never met a likable person named "Chad." Not the kind of name you want as the face of your franchise. Poor effort IMO. D-

Davis Webb -- This isn't a QB name, it's a name for a fifth-string wide receiver who only plays special teams. D

Nathan Peterman -- Now we're talking. I'm iffy about the first name, but "Peterman" is the kind of weird-but-memorable name you want from your QB. B

C.J. Beathard -- An abbreviated name! We don't see that from QBs often. Then again, the last two abbreviated names (EJ Manuel, AJ McCarron) haven't fared well. Bodes poorly for his NFL career. C

Joshua Dobbs -- I got nothing. This may as well be a Madden-generated name. C-

In short, this QB class is as lacking in good names as it is in talent.

Ugh this is why I have to do this every year. You got this all backwards.

The strongest name this year belongs to Bart Houston of Wisconsin. The runner ups are Mason Rudolph, Chad Kelly, Brady Gustafson, and an honorable mention to Brad Kaaya. It's tough having a vowel last name as a QB if you're not Italian but Mariota is bucking the recent trends. Kizer is a Brown's tier name and Watson is completely underwhelming with Deshaun as the pairing.

Edit: I forgot Gunner Kiel but so did most of the nation

# ¿ Dec 21, 2016 04:47

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

PrinceRandom posted:

Also why are people hyping a Tech QB?

Mahomes' arm is nuts. He throws the most ridiculous off balanced balls that bullet all over the field. He also creates Tony Romoesque plays on the regular

# ¿ Dec 21, 2016 06:02

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Alaois posted:

Bart Houston is tragically, hilariously terrible. He's worse than Joel Stave was somehow.

It's the curse of the perfect name. Colt McCoy, Colt Brennan, Major Applewhite. You have to be really loving good to overcome your name, like Joe Montana levels of good.

# ¿ Dec 21, 2016 16:28

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Bigass Moth posted:

Barkevious Mingo was such an incredible name that he could never have hoped to live up to the potential.

Well in Mingo's case he was unfortunately a linebacker where the rules are completely backwards. If you have an amazing name the expectations to be great are set at birth. Dick Butkus, Jack Lambert, Harry Carson, NaVorro Bowman, Brian Urlacher, Peter Boulware, DeMarcus Ware. I mean the list can just keep going on and on. If anything Mingo should have been better than he was.

# ¿ Dec 21, 2016 17:30

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

hump day bitches! posted:

That scouting report is just incredible, how the gently caress did he got drafted in the second?

I am rarely down on a player before seeing them in action in the NFL. Usually it takes a special storm of media hype and blatant ineptitude to get me to bite, like Vernon Gholston, Mark Sanchez, or Morris Claiborne. And even then I can begrudgingly admit that certain guys can play at the NFL level, just not at the level expected of their draft stock.

Christian Hackenberg has, on several pieces of video evidence, mind you, thrown a ball directly at a linebacker for a game ending interception. He's turned innumerable short balls into wobbly, lofting ducks that get picked off at the second level on screen passes. He's stepped up directly into his o-linemen so many times that they think he's Julia Styles. His pocket presence is existential.

Despite all this, somehow Penn State homers gave him every excuse in the book and every nationally televised Penn State game would follow the route of mumbling about Sandusky into congratulating O'Brien on rebuilding the program into dick sucking Hackenberg. Then when O'Brien left and Franklin couldn't win games with 3 star transfers Hackenberg got the Mark Sanchez treatment from the announcers. Not a single interception was his fault. Every play Allen Robinson bailed him out on would immediately be revered upon onto a literal Hack instead. Every college football fan knew he was going to tumble in the draft and UDFA somewhere and the Jets took him in the loving second.

These are the faces of football morons:

# ¿ Dec 22, 2016 04:10

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

swickles posted:

There is a lot of hubris in NFL scouting/coaching. The scouting may say he is bad, but has good size and a cannon arm, and the coach simply thinks "I can fix him!" when it may not matter where the guy goes. Some coaches are good and can maximize talent, but short of a handful of cases if a guy is failure at one place, there isn't any fixing him.

Hackenberg is a turd

# ¿ Dec 22, 2016 06:16

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

I don't have a problem with short QBs. I have a problem with middle height QBs with lame names. I'm looking at you, J.P. Losman's of the world!

# ¿ Dec 22, 2016 16:08

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Dexo posted:

Who in the top 5 is a massive injury risk and will be a massive bust due to injuries and being bad?

Need to place on bet on who the Bears draft.

Probably Leonard Fournette's knee.

# ¿ Dec 23, 2016 00:37

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Henry fell because Michigan State's d-line made him look like a chump. People were afraid that he couldn't deal with contact behind the line of scrimmage at all which rightfully set off alarms considering past Alabama RB history.

Bama's biggest problem is that Saban is too good at recruiting and fills his o-line with behemoths every year. Their offense isn't complex at all either. Just a ton of hammering run plays mixed in with a WCO. It makes it hard for the Bama backs to translate to the NFL because they're asked to do a lot more in pass protection, catching passes, and dealing with being met in the backfield. I think T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry are very similar players and look what's happening to Yeldon.

# ¿ Dec 23, 2016 06:29

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Ehud posted:

I still say Dalvin Cook will be better than Fournette.

Cook screams the type of runner that you'll never see leave the NFL. Just a very good one cut runner who has some nifty moves in the open field. Foreman is kinda like him too and will probably get a ton more tread his rookie year since he took pretty much every snap out of the shotgun in Texas's offense.

Also you guys are insane if you think Fournette is either going to be bad or horribly outplayed by anyone else in this draft. Dude's a four tool RB with some amazing burst and plays the type of upright smart running game you see from David Johnson, Leveon Bell, or Matt Forte.

# ¿ Dec 23, 2016 17:24

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Porn on VHS posted:

why is running upright considered good.. dont you expose yourself to more hits that way?

As Fiz said it's more a comment on style. When you're amazing at it, like Adrian Peterson, you become an elite threat. It allows you to deliver better stiff arms, square up against tacklers, and just plain makes you a big, hard to tackle back. If you're bad at it, like Rashard Mendenhall or Mikel Leshoure, then you become an injury prone 3 yard rusher that gets stood up every time he takes contact.

# ¿ Dec 23, 2016 19:20

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Guys I like Mitch Trubisky now, definitely looks like a top 50 prospect

# ¿ Dec 26, 2016 16:46

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

oh wow

# ¿ Dec 27, 2016 22:37

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

It's ok you ran into a no fun zone

Not paying attention to college football is fine and getting hyped up is fine. Not everyone has to sperg the gently caress out on draft stuff.

# ¿ Dec 30, 2016 04:23

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

A girl I work with's father coached him and he lived in their house and took her virginity

# ¿ Dec 30, 2016 19:35

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

I still like Trubisky :shobon:

# ¿ Dec 31, 2016 08:27

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Benne posted:

If he was just a second-round pick, or even late first-rounder who got a chance to sit and learn, there wouldn't be nearly as much backlash.

People talking him up as a top-5 pick and Week 1 starter is just ludicrous. It's Blake Bortles all over again.

Bortles was a top 25 pick which made sense at the time. Trubisky should undoubtedly be a top 100 pick but this draft class is incredibly weak for QBs so he'll likely rise due to his arm.

But we still gotta wait on the combine and the personal workouts before we get a clear idea on how teams value him, not pundits. Pundits are just people who put out their opinion. When I say he should undoubtedly be a top 100 pick, that's an opinion. Doesn't mean it's true. And pundits are just as susceptible to hivemind mentalities. If every other pundit is saying this guy is a top 10 pick, a lot of guys will jump on that. Then as soon as a bunch start saying he's falling out of the top 10, that's what everyone else says too.

At some point during the draft process everyone should realize these are a bunch of 20-24 year old kids that are still developing their bodies and skillsets, and many can succeed or bust on a whim regardless of where they're picked. Except Hackenberg.

# ¿ Dec 31, 2016 19:26

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Bigass Moth posted:

We done it! Almost winning that game five different times was oh so browns, but they managed to hang on and keep their eyes on the prize. We're number one!

It's refreshing that we're starting to lock in the pick order. On a side note I wonder how many top 15 picks are going to tank their stock to avoid playing for the Browns

# ¿ Jan 2, 2017 00:27

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# ¿ Apr 28, 2024 07:40

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Grittybeard posted:

There are like 2 decent tackles this year.

Cam Robinson is top tier and Ramczyk or McGlinchey could both potentially be elite LTs too. Other than that there's a ton of good looking RT prospects like Chad Wheeler or Roderick Johnson. Western Michigan has a guy named Taylor Moton who was smiting competition all year even if it was a bit underwhelming. Arkansas also has one of the biggest OTs I've ever seen named Dan Skipper. I think he's flying a bit under the radar but his feet are incredible for someone so big, could potentially be an elite pickup too.

OT is hella deep this year.

# ¿ Jan 2, 2017 01:01

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Football Funhouse > NFL Draft Thread 2017 - Oil up my Head Edition

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