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mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Monaghan posted:

I'm a little surprised by some conservative economists calling for a minimum income in order to combat automation, but then I realise they mean bare minimum, like "just enough so you won't die."

What a wonderful future.
Well what do you propose, that everyone gets $100k? That's not gonna work even if you redistributed the complete domestic product.


Talmonis posted:

Future jobs prospects; Kapo (prisoner with a position over other prisoners), living furniture, living artwork, living test material, spare parts, soylent green, professional snitch, gladiator, indentured servant, majordomo, bellhop (the rich will not stand for being waited on hand and foot by something they can't degrade, like a machine), butler, maid, courtesean, uterus rental, cuckoldry specialist. More will come to me I'm sure.

Already on it!

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mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
The self checkouts are mostly a temporary solution too. It was a matter of time before they got replaced with RFID or as Amazon has done, computer vision: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrmMk1Myrxc

Really, automation impacts everything for a long time already. Various corporate operations are getting automated too, just nobody is complaining (yet). Procurement, O2C, sales & marketing, etc. are all becoming increasingly automated. While many people are still needed, of course, it's nowhere near what it would be with manual processes. Just Outlook must've eliminated millions of secretaries - it used to be that everyone of any importance had one, and now even big managers at most get a shared assistant.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Nevvy Z posted:

I chuckle every time I see the words "reduce prices" in this thread, as though companies aren't gonna just pocket more profit and bonuses.
They won't because competition would eventually drive the prices down. Since automation's been going on forever, do you think everyone is operating on 1000% profit margins now?

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
TBH based on recent history it seems that pilots are more likely to gently caress up and cause a crash that a computer would never do. Like insisting that you'd make it to the next airport which is outside of its max range :v:

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
^^^
I don't think the argument ever was that ATMs will create new jobs for bank tellers, but that in aggregate, there will be more opportunities in the economy as a whole. Somebody has to build and maintain ATMs, the suppliers (think Intel, MS, etc) get more business, banks lowers costs and customers save time and money.

If this weren't the case, we'd have to be like 99% unemployed by now. You could argue that that today's McJobs aren't as good as factory jobs in the 50s but I don't see anything fundamentally different between bolting on wheels on an assembly line and putting together a burger. The lower wages could be a result of higher low skilled labor supply and perhaps lower union membership.

turn it up TURN ME ON posted:

It's interesting in the sense that a lot of work has been done there to automate it, and it makes sense to bring up as a comparison to automotive automation, but there's a lot more complexity.

I bet we'll see a lot of people making the same comparison in the next bunch of months/years: We didn't put pilots out of a job, so stop worrying about truckers getting put out of a job.
I dunno, modern autopilots can already fly the planes just fine, it's not that difficult. As the joke goes, the cockpit of the future will feature a single pilot and a large dog. The pilot's job will be to feed the dog. The dog's job will be to bite the pilot if he tries to mess with anything.

That is not to say that all pilots will be fired tomorrow, but I don't see any fundamental issues preventing automation in the near future. We already got rid of a significant part of the crew so this will only gradually continue.

Cicero posted:

I'm sure we could come up with plenty of examples. Carriage drivers (really anything to do with horses) once cars started to become popular, human 'computers' and punch card operators falling by the wayside as early computers became more advanced, I guess offices used to have a lot more secretaries to type stuff up before the advent of personal computers + word processors. I'm guessing taxi dispatchers are rapidly going the way of the do-do right now.
I wanted to make some point about the changes happening gradually or something but here's a chart of Peak Horse:

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
I'm your typical introverted goony rear end in a top hat and although I do enjoy having face to face business meetings or even just hanging out with friends, I don't really see how the type of human interaction that you get at a grocery check out or drive through is in any way enjoyable for anyone.

Not only are the people on the other side paid to be nice to you, the interaction level is still at the barest minimum required by your local politeness customs. Here, it's usually limited to hello and thank you. In the US I've noticed you might get a "how are you", but they of course don't actually care. gently caress it, replace this bullshit with scripts and robots. I'd rather be done with this quicker and go speak with somebody who really wants to talk to me.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Let's not get all "neoliberalism :argh:" in here as well.

Instead, let's look forward to your spouse finally being automated away as well:

quote:

At a conference last week called "Love and Sex with Robots" at Goldsmith University in London, David Levy, author of a book on human-robot love, made the bold prediction. And while some other experts were skeptical, Adrian Cheok, a professor at City University London and director of the Mixed Reality Lab in Singapore, supported Levy's idea. "That might seem outrageous because it's only 35 years away. But 35 years ago people thought homosexual marriage was outrageous," Cheok said. "Until the 1970s, some states didn't allow white and black people to marry each other. Society does progress and change very rapidly."

And Cheok pointed out that there could be some real advantages to robot relationships. “A lot of human marriages are very unhappy,” he said. “Compared to a bad marriage, a robot will be better than a human.”

http://fortune.com/2016/12/26/human-robot-love-marriage-relationships/

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
^^^
Dunno how close that is to production, but your kebab job is already hosed:

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
You guys have drunk 16-year-olds driving around with barely any skill or education in rusted-out shitboxes with bald tires, having a neural network in control can't possibly be any more dangerous.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Of course, roads aren't infinite. However you could get more people mobile with the same infrastructure so it's a plus.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Some guy from Salesforce was bragging about their advanced new Einstein AI, turns out it's basically automated lead scoring :jerkbag:

I mean it's absolutely valuable but this is a pretty low bar for AI so I wouldn't think too much about those figures.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Did you program a calculator to write your posts? :v:

I understand what you're trying to say but this is just not what the general population or computer scientists understands as AI. In any case even an abacus can cost someone a job so the exact definition isn't particularly relevant for this thread.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
People already buy milk from machines:



The only thing stopping further automation is technology and mostly logistics. Your fridge doesn't know that you're out of milk (no rfid tags on poo poo yet) and if it did, there's no way to get itself restocked. It could order it off Amazon of course but unless you let random delivery people into your house unattended, it'd have to wait outside which isn't great. Audi tried to solve that but I don't think their trunk delivery caught on.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
It doesn't count until everyone in Africa has unlimited access to free-range organic avocados

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
^^^
Yess finally, somebody is working to bring us into the cyberpunk future we've been promised.

BrandorKP posted:

And to illustrate how the us is a different world, on the bulk side of things I've been to grain terminals where the spouts were controlled by teams of men with ropes.
I'm not that into logistics so I don't know how they control grain spouts around here, but port of Hamburg seems to take automation pretty seriously at least in terms of planning and management since they have nowhere to expand:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CWzjsCn6Do
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKZDgsni0Y4

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
I don't see why not. If poor economies are able to take advantage of the emerging sustainable tech to develop, they could massively increase the efficiency and effectiveness without depleting all the resources. Of course that's a big "if" and there might be some bottlenecks like water availability in Africa or what not, but in general, I'd say it's very possible.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Most likely though, these people would be eventually replaced with someone still valuable to the company. I.e. lay off 500 pencil pushers, hire 100 salespeople or developers or whatever. Business grows, hire more people, etc. If this weren't the case, all companies would be down to, like, one guy by now.

Based on experience though, even this rarely happens. Our systems are constantly improved and automated, and whenever you no longer have to spend hours on stupid poo poo because it's now automated... there's always other stupid poo poo that needs to be done. Presumably it's also valuable so the business grows.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
I haven't seen any kiosks at a fast-food place around here so far, but supermarkets are continuing to get more and more automated. A few stores have had self-checkouts for a while, and now more are getting little barcode scanners that you take around with you and use to scan the items.

But for restaurants, I have no idea how app ordering isn't a bigger thing yet. Having your table reserved and food almost ready as you arrive would be a huge qualitative improvement in experience vs the usual bullshit.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
I used the self-scanning thing at Tesco for the first time yesterday. While self-checkout is a nice solution when the are lines at the checkout, it's fundamentally still the same thing. I thought this was way more convenient though, like a lower-tech version of Amazon's store. It only adds a few seconds per item during shopping and checkout and payment only takes 30 seconds or so. Plus it keeps track of your items for you and fundamentally, you could've done the same thing with your phone.

There's another store I don't go to nearly as often that used these for longer, so I was quite surprised that very few people actually use them and instead prefer to wait for minutes in lines. Still, while I'm not sure about Amazon's solution scaling well to places like these, I can totally see these devices taking over in the near future. It should be cheap to implement and is legitimately more convenient.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Vesi posted:

Apple is holding this back at least with their insistence that they get 30% cut on anything bought through app store apps, I had a customer wanting this back in 2011 but when I noted it'd be android only they weren't interested

Wait really? How does Uber get around that? Or do they just give apple their cut?

Main Paineframe posted:

Well, yeah. Most TVs these days are just purpose-built computers with a collection of TV-related "apps", just like how smartphones are tiny computers with a cell radio and a phone app. Hell, even soda dispensers run on Windows these days. The trend of more computers in more things is already slowing down, because somebody's already put computers in just about everything it makes sense to put computers in - as well as a bunch of things it doesn't really make sense to put a computer in. We're in a bit of an IoT bubble, and eventually it will pop and return to sanity. The world isn't ready for app-powered smart nightlights that change color if you have any unread emails, let alone smart toilets that analyze your poop.
Oh you have no idea dude, we're just getting started with IoT!

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
It's not just that somebody could turn your lights on and off, by hacking them they might also a) use it to run denial of service attacks and b) gain access to other devices or services on your network. This is something that needs to be taken absolutely seriously and we should avoid making critical devices accessible to the whole internet. But I also don't think it will (or should) prevent progress.

A ton of IoT stuff now is useless garbage, but that's to be expected with a new paradigm when everyone just throws poo poo at the wall. There are plenty of great use cases for it that can genuinely improve your daily life.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Unless the pilots get confused and crash the airplane themselves

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Lightning Lord posted:

Why is this thread about whether or not planes will be automated instead of how we're all going to be murdered by GE branded death bots?

Not worried about death bots because ol' Musky is going to ban them: http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/21/technology/elon-musk-killer-robot-un-ban/index.html

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

withak posted:

Now all they need to do is run the barley through an automated malting system and then through an automated brewing system.

And then through an automated drinking and pissing system.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

They should just let the general public drive the equipment. I know I'd drive a giant bulldozer or dump truck for free for a few days.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Another tragedy in Las Vegas!

https://youtu.be/u7pV4vxD1bs

The first autonomous shuttle only lasted an hour before crashing with a semi. It seems that the truck was technically at fault, but also that a human driver could've avoided the issue.

Just based on personal experience, driving perfect according to the rules will not always save you if others are being morons.

mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 15:58 on Nov 9, 2017

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Slavvy posted:

Are you kidding? The reason the royalty need the poors is to do all the boring manual labour stuff. What do you think happens to all the poor people when they're no longer needed because robots do it instead? Do you think we'll transition to a post scarcity utopia out of kindness?


*: In America **

** Everywhere, but especially not in America

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
I see no reason why you couldn’t just have another AI play through the generated content and provide a score as a feedback. That’s kind of in the spirit of the adversarial NN already.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
ArsTechnica has a review of the experience, it seems pretty resilient to these sorts of shenanigans, and in the worst case, you could probably just have it refunded without an issue: https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2018/01/we-test-the-worlds-first-amazon-go-watch-you-shop-grocery-store/

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Amazon is already in the retail business though. The question is if they want to eventually roll this out or if it's a test or tech demo.

I'm not really sure that this will scale well, no matter how much ML tech improves. Like you'd still need a camera for every single shelf and corresponding processing power to make that work, not to mention very strict arrangement of goods. Vs just giving people hand-held scanners and making no other changes.

E:

Doctor Malaver posted:

Why is this thread rated so poorly? It's not that bad. :shrug:
Probably the constant circular arguments about self-driving cars and perl scripts replacing blue collar workers.

mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 13:49 on Jan 23, 2018

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

On the other hand, in Korea:

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
I'm afraid it'll take a while until Waymo taxis can drive in Prague more than 100 meters without getting stuck or involved in some sort of incident so you'll put up with it.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Yuli Ban posted:

One of the memes involving Kurzweil's predictions is that you're supposed to add ten years to whatever date he gives.
Turns out, that's true.
...
Huh, I'm sure I must've seen this guy before but don't remember any of his specific predictions. Some of the 2019 stuff is completely off, like nanomachines, which are too difficult, or working with virtual people, which is dumb, but mostly pretty realistic within another 10 years or so. Like I don't know what microflaps are supposed to be but we're pretty close to having scaled up quad drones ferry people around, there are audio and visual implants available, etc.

Paradoxish posted:

Someone is going to make the (completely accurate and reasonable) assertion that Arizona is pretty close to the spherical cow of the self driving world, but the fact that real, completely autonomous taxis will soon be operating commercially is kind of nuts and it doesn't really matter if they require perfect conditions. If they're at all commercially successful then there's no way they don't rapidly end up just about everywhere feasible, even if they only run seasonally or can't operate on the US east coast.
The Phoenix suburbs are definitely easy mode but the fact that we're just months away from loving Johnny cab is pretty mindblowing. Unless this just bombs completely, which is possible but unlikely, I certainly expect them to slowly expand it to more challenging locations.

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Apparently Yandex taxi in russia just like yesterday posted their video of the first test on public roads in the snow of a self driving taxi. Which is probably the farthest other side of the spectrum you could get.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bx08yRsR9ow
Seems like most of the snow is gone from the actual lanes, which I imagine is the real problem, but that's still pretty impressive how it handles the occasional snowbank, parked cars and pedestrians walking on the street. Obviously this is a cherry picked video but it does show that it's not all hopeless for those of us in places with weather.

Teal posted:

The advantage of operating it in Russia is that if it gets into a crash, the local headline will probably be "loving idiot backs into a super expensive self driving taxi prototype" and it won't make it past that.
Self driving cars need to all come with a robot that will get out of the car and threaten the other party automatically with an axe.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:

Word on the street is that the car didn't initiate braking at all. That sounds like a malfunction. The software only needs milliseconds to react, so, no matter how she got in front of the car, there should have been more than enough time to at least initiate braking.
Possibly. We've all seen the (other) Volvo plow into a reporter at a self-stopping demonstration, though this should have an order of magnutude better detection capabilities than that:

https://i.imgur.com/7XPr2cL.mp4

But why don't we wait for a video and telemetry before deciding what happened :confused:

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mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
The head reflects light much better than the dark jacket on her upper torso. I doubt they selectively darkened the spot, if they did anything it was probably adjusting the overall exposure or maybe the camera was just messsed up to begin with.

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