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Robots are going to take your jobs. I mean, you probably knew that. Like, 100 years from now, right? Not in your lifetime, but your grandkids or something. No. It's going to happen in your lifetime and it will happen relatively soon across several job types. The Facts: The Future of Employment (Oxford Martin, 2013): Estimates 47% of all US jobs in 20 years at risk of become fully automated. Transportation, logistics, office and administration, and other non-routine manual tasks are the most at risk. Economic Report of the President (2016): US Government report that came to similar results as the Oxford study. Starts on page 236.  (from the oxford study)  What does all this mean? Robots, computers and other technologies are replacing human workers and new jobs aren't being made fast enough. It will lead to systemic unemployment. We will have a permanent class of workers unable to find work. Our current social safety nets are inadequate. Nobody seems to care or even fully understands what is happening. This is a bunch of luddite nonsense! / Technology hasn't ruined us so far! In the 19th century, the luddites (a group of rebellious, highly skilled workers, many from guilds) feared that technology would rob people of jobs. This turned out to be false. Technology broke down highly skilled jobs into easier tasks. These tasks paid less than highly skilled workers, but many more people were hired, which in turn increased demand and the demand was able to be met thanks to this new class of workers. And so this cycle continued, breaking down more and more highly skilled jobs, opening more doors for the average worker. In the 1990's, this cycle came to an end. Technology began to break down the very middle class jobs technology had previously created. Low wage workers have taken their place. Soon, these low wage jobs will also come to an end. It will not be an even breakdown, and it will not all happen at once. There are certain job sectors that are most vulnerable, they likely pay less than $20 an hour, and some of them consists of huge numbers of workers. Transportation alone has about 3.2 million jobs in the US. Holy poo poo what do we do!? That's what we need to discuss. The ideal solution is to support free college education and a guaranteed minimum income. Automation can be allowed to happen if we focus the workforce into jobs that are much less likely to be automated. Many of these non-vulnerable jobs won't be automated for at least 20 years. If for some reason someone still can't find a job, it is necessary for a person to participate in the economy in order for automated companies to still be able to sell product. A basic income or guaranteed minimum income would provide enough to live on at the very least. Less ideal would be to prevent automation from happening. There is no realistic neo-luddite movement to speak of, for now. However, CEOs and billionaires have been threatening minimum wage workers with automated replacements, particularly fast food workers, in an effort to stymie minimum wage growth.  I'm mad about automated cars!! Please don't. We've had so many derails. Weather it does or does not come to fruition, it's only a fraction of the problem. Here, watch a video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
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Dec 1, 2016 16:09
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Cicero posted:Are you from 30 years in the future or something? We can barely make bipedal robots that can open a door and walk through it without falling over. Just a nit pick, but we have at least one that can meet those goals. I'm pretty sure there are a couple more but this one is the most impressive imo. We will have functional, generalist manual labor robots much sooner than 30 years. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVlhMGQgDkY
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Dec 5, 2016 05:23
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LeJackal posted:This is an interesting take.. Fiction is about to become reality, but like reality won't to do, there's a catch: quote:Deep inside Bridgewater Associates LP, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, software engineers are at work on a secret project that founder Ray Dalio has sometimes called “The Book of the Future.” quote:Data are incorporated from a phalanx of personality tests that Mr. Dalio requires of his employees. In one, managers undergo written exams to determine their “stratum,” an unconventional score for conceptual skills developed by the late Canadian-born psychoanalyst Elliott Jaques.
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Dec 22, 2016 22:10
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:And what does this have to do with robots? The difference between technology creating jobs and technology eliminating jobs had to do with simplifying high-skill jobs into middle class jobs. The Oxford Martin study suggests this process came to an end in the 90's and has begun to break down middle class jobs into lower class. Oh and what a coincidence, a bunch of jobs lost during the recent recession were middle class. The service sector absorbed a lot of those jobs, but the majority of them are lower class wages. And won't you look at that, former McDonalds president/CEO Ed Rensi has been threatening the $15 minimum movement with replacing them with touch screen kiosks. I don't know how feasible that tech is yet, but there are some locations with a functioning kiosk and if they work well enough, someone at the company will run the numbers and see how much cheaper it is to have kiosks over cashiers. It could technically happen sooner if the national minimum was $15 an hour. On top of all this, we have a lot of prototype examples. Driverless combine harvesters, Amazon's kiva robots, Boston Dynamic's atlas, BRETT and other hands-on learning robots, robot brick layers (one of which uses a small fleet of drones), and a pizza making machine that needs no human assistance. Many of these are in various testing stages with different degrees of success, but even the worst performing robot will likely have their faults removed and the parts their made of become cheaper in 15 years if not sooner.
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Dec 26, 2016 23:35
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RedneckwithGuns posted:So I haven't had time to scan the thread too much, but I have a question for people more acquainted with automation issues than me: Health care in general is safe for now as they consist of a lot of human interaction and activities that aren't rote. Pharmacists are technically the exception, but have fairly strong unions, which is why they haven't been replaced already. I cannot accurately guess how long the pharmacy unions will hold out, but I can tell you that a few robot pharmacists have been around for a few years and have proven to be less error prone than humans.
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Dec 28, 2016 23:44
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Please stop talking about autonomous cars. Here, I made a thread just for you guys.
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Jan 18, 2017 07:16
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Rastor posted:Tesla's crash rate dropped 40 percent after Autopilot was rolled out. Here's hoping that computer's theory about regeneration might lead to practical human application.
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Jan 20, 2017 01:36
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:That's easy mode, yo. You should develop skills on coping with strangers when you don't have a structured activity and someone else making the introductions for you. And PSA: If you don't teach your kids how to shop for food they'll grow up to be fat takeout addicts like you. I'm sure there's a youtube video teaching others how to shop, in the incredibly rare event that a child is never exposed to a supermarket. This is also assuming grocery stores will still be viable in the long-term, which they might be or they might not. Big box stores were pretty safe as a business right up until amazon changed everything.
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Feb 7, 2017 05:39
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Call Me Charlie posted:New York Post ran an article about Amazon's physical store ambitions. If we can funnel the majority of the upcoming unemployed into college, basic income will be affordable for a long time. Many of today's college educated jobs will not be easily broken, probably good for another 50 years. Only then will the people of that time period need to decide how to proceed. With so many additional educated people, there's a pretty good chance the mood of the country will change, if not bring some new idea how to live with a large portion of the country unable to work. Doctor Malaver posted:I can see the social value of walking to the local grocery store, greeting your neighbour and chatting with the clerk who knows you by name. Much less so if you drive to a shopping mall where you'll pass a hundred people but none of them mean anything to you. One of the cashiers at my local grocery chain is old enough to remember a time when he worked as a cashier at some small store in a small town. He enjoyed it a lot. He got to know everyone in town and didn't have to rush anything. He tolerates his current job but any sort of happiness he had for the position left him years ago. We could conceivably have that small town vibe back, but it would require a federal mandate to override local housing authorities and implement mixed usage zones peppered across suburbia. Even then, big grocery chains will be hard to unseat just because we're used to them and they will likely still have cheaper goods than a smaller place.
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Feb 7, 2017 14:04
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Call Me Charlie posted:But what happens to those degree required 'good' jobs once there's a tidal wave of labor hitting those sectors? I'm uncertain as to which college educated jobs are the current flavor of the year, but in the event those who are college educated can't find a job in the relevant field, they can attempt another degree or fall back on basic income. Really, basic income is the only solution that won't lead to more suffering, but it needs to be in tandem with college education so as to increase those labor pools for as long as possible. Yes, it's a tough sell to the average american who basically worship jobs as holy writ, but it shouldn't be too hard to convince corporations that the very people who buy their products need the money to do so.
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Feb 8, 2017 11:11
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A Buttery Pastry posted:but UBI seems more like a delaying action while capital gets ready to completely disengage from the public. That's the first I've heard of UBI being framed in such a way. Could you be more specific? Taking the means of production is a harder sell than UBI is, but if we can get a lot more people through college, I could see a citizen's dividend becoming more appealing.
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Feb 9, 2017 08:28
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A Buttery Pastry posted:What does putting them through college help, in the long run? At some point, no amount of college is ever going to let the majority of the population catch up with where technological progress has put their artificial rivals. You're getting awfully close to the technological singularity here. College has a way of educating about more than just the job you're after. College educated voters lean left for a reason. Getting more americans into higher education is going to shift politics so that leftist ideas become a little more realistic. This idea that the rich can disengage itself from the working class sounds far too fantastical to be practical, because that means they need full control of both federal and state governments. It's also impractical to believe they can disengage from all job types, as the people making the machines are still human. Humans who have a college education, by the way.
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Feb 10, 2017 17:41
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anonumos posted:Has anyone written about my gut feeling that amounts to "not all automation"? I don't think automation is inherently zero sum. Many automated systems give rise to new industries, creating more jobs than destroyed. Naturally most such positive knock-on effects are less invisible or more obfuscated than the negatives, but... I could've sworn I wrote something in the OP that mentions how automation has been breaking more jobs than creating.
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Feb 28, 2017 00:50
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Blue Star posted:Robots cant even fold a towel or make a bed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i27iWSWyvEg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gy5g33S0Gzo 
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Mar 1, 2017 03:40
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I'm not convinced of flashman's idea. The whole concept of single earner families ignores single people. If a single person can't find work, what are they to do? Be forced into marrying a worker? It makes no sense, and the economic and social change needed for that to happen are staggering. It makes more sense to shoot for a basic income. Automation is happening with or without our action, might as well pay everyone who can't find work a living wage and get everyone who wants it a college education for free. Maybe down the road, in the unlikely event that the rich collectively go galt, then we'd have a legit reason to seize the means of production and implement a citizen's dividend.
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Mar 2, 2017 00:48
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His Divine Shadow posted:Looks like automation will soon reduce the amount of nurse jobs by automating this bit, it frees up nurses todo other things, which means less nurses wll be needed. These are one of the few methods of automation that actually scare me. I'm cool with putting my life in the hands of an automated vehicle, but once needles are involved I get the heebie-jeebies.
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Mar 15, 2017 16:06
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Fried Watermelon posted:Soon they'll have the robots even EAT the burgers A little late for that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSFe91XlwYQ
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Mar 16, 2017 19:19
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my late mom's bedroom looked like bank butt
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May 24, 2017 06:19
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CommieGIR posted:McDonald's is making a huge success of the automated kiosks: I'm too lazy to verify but I could have sworn there were a couple goons who didn't think this was happening. I hope they still read this thread.
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Jun 24, 2017 01:42
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Mark Zuckerberg came out in favor of UBI:quote:In a Facebook post about a trip this week to Alaska with wife Priscilla Chan, the Facebook CEO praised the state's Permanent Fund, which pools the state's oil revenue and pays out cash dividends to eligible Alaskans. In 2016, that dividend was $1,022. UBI based on resources exploitation, that is!  But he's also implying seizing the means of production?  At the least, he recognizes his own industry's push for automation creating unemployment.
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Jul 6, 2017 20:10
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A robot tax that feeds into a basic income would be nice, but ultimately keeps the means of production in the hands of the few. There's also plenty of tax fuckery and dodging waiting in the wings, because people don't imagine plain old computers being a robot.
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Aug 9, 2017 21:24
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Blockade posted:There will still be jobs in the future, I haven't seen anyone automate being a blood boy yet. Consider this a step in that direction: His Divine Shadow posted:Looks like automation will soon reduce the amount of nurse jobs by automating this bit, it frees up nurses todo other things, which means less nurses wll be needed.
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Aug 11, 2017 20:20
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:A job that is so hazardous to life that they require bullet proofing seems like an argument FOR automation, not against it. I'm trying to think of a place I've been to recently that needed bullet proofing and the only thing I can think of is a gun range. Not even the local bank branches bother with bullet proofing, or jewelry shops for that matter. The dog whistle here is that automation can't work in poor/black neighborhoods, either because automatons can't withstand a mugging or because the robocop style killbots can't identify non-threatening targets that aren't white people.
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Aug 22, 2017 23:45
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Borrowing from the USPOL thread: Why Workers Are Losing to Capitalists hint: it's automation (oh and maybe offshoring and monopolies too)
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Oct 20, 2017 01:26
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David Beckham posted:Does anyone know what the definition of robot is in the statistic robots per worker? It's based on industrial jobs only and doesn't count software or AI, if that helps. But yeah an official definition would be interesting.
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Oct 25, 2017 19:07
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You could also use it to make more believable false identities. I'm thinking more like twitter bots and poo poo but it might make things more complicated wrt identity fraud.
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Oct 31, 2017 19:41
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I'm hesitant to link what is basically clickbait, but there aren't many anti robot stances outside of this forum so it's something I guess? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUmyygCMMGA It ends with "no one really knows".
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Nov 14, 2017 07:39
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Mozi posted:Use human bodies as heat-generating machines to run robots with, you say? This was something that was seriously considered a few years ago, not by robots but by libertarians. I can't find the article anymore, but the proposal was to take homeless/jobless people and confine them inside a pod with a computer and internet connection. The purpose was to generate revenue through the information gathered from their browsing. In return they got free food, water, and shelter, but were never allowed to leave the pod.
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Nov 14, 2017 20:49
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Thalantos posted:I thought this was an episode of star trek? You might be thinking of TNG episode The Arsenal of Freedom, where a planet exterminated itself of all its people through increasingly efficient killing machines stuck in the demonstration cycle of a war profiteer's sales pitch.
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Nov 17, 2017 03:44
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That's why you combine UBI with free college education. There will still be jobs that can't be automated (at least for another 20 years), but they are mostly gated by a college education.
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Dec 8, 2017 22:05
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Remember when we were laughing at that security robot that committed suicide in a public fountain? Stolen from the unicorns thread: http://www.businessinsider.com/security-robots-are-monitoring-the-homeless-in-san-francisco-2017-12 All for less than minimum wage.
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Dec 14, 2017 06:38
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Solkanar512 posted:Watch out, folks here get really pissed off if you point that out. on the contrary, I think we can all agree you don't need to be a luddite to destroy this particular machine.
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Dec 15, 2017 02:14
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Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:Homeless people breaking into your car and pissing on the seats is just penance for the middle class supporting ponzi scheme trickle down economics for decades. God is just and has a sense of humor. Namaste and maybe, just maybe, if the government gave those homeless money every month, they will spend it on rent.
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Dec 16, 2017 00:55
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Tasmantor posted:Citizen you have been found guilty of homelessness, 25 years in the shame cubes!
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Dec 17, 2017 23:53
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Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:Someone made Gal Gadot porn using a GAN. It was literally one of the very first applications of the technology. Star trek knew what holodecks were for and they didn't hide it, and neither will we when holodecks become reality.
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Dec 25, 2017 02:24
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https://twitter.com/_Cooper/status/973901292430090241 he knew too much
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Mar 15, 2018 00:05
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Please stop obsessing about automated cars.
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Mar 21, 2018 21:26
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This thread has gone beyond the scope I had intended. If you wish to further talk about uber's murder machine, make a new thread.
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Mar 22, 2018 21:27
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