Automation Thread: Imagine johnny 5 squashing your job, forever

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Automation Thread: Imagine johnny 5 squashing your job, forever

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

rscott posted:

The funny part is we do a lot of cnc machining (about to fill another 60k sqft with machines) but basically none of it is automated.

um...cnc...is...automation?

that's the whole point, more productivity with fewer workers

# ¿ Dec 6, 2016 04:34

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 06:51

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

rscott posted:

You can have three or four guys running 3 axis machines each with a different position or setup, or you can have one guy running all four machines with robots moving the parts from machine to machine (or you can spend a million bucks on a 5 axis machine and do it in one setup)

Yeah but there are still shops running manual machines and blaming China for stealing all their jerbs instead of investing in CNC machines and learning how to use them.

# ¿ Dec 6, 2016 04:52

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

Doctor Malaver posted:

Are there any political parties anywhere in the world that are at least semi-coherently trying to address this issue? This could be the big break the Left needs after failing globally with the liberal capitalism + identity politics combo.

All I've heard are some unsuccessful attempts to introduce universal income, I think in Switzerland and Netherlands. It's the first step I guess but I don't know how that can work without serious changes in the tax system or some other way to redistribute wealth. As people become unemployed the state will collect less taxes and at the same time will have to increase spending to pay them universal income.

Currently the solution is just for people to either go back to school and update their skills, or for them to move to a place where their skills are more valuable. Neither seems extremely *cough* popular.

# ¿ Dec 6, 2016 13:54

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

rscott posted:

There isn't anyone left in the United States doing aerospace machining that's using manual mills for their main production. You wouldn't be able to keep your tolerances in spec on anything complex and actually produce any volume of parts. We run one type of parts on manual mills and its because they're parts that haven't changed meaningfully since the 90s.

I'm not talking about the big manufacturers, I'm talking about the hundreds of thousands of guys doing contract work out of their garages and small businesses. I'm not sure exactly how many of them are still using manual machines, but if everyone was using the sorts of CNC techniques you were describing companies in the US wouldn't be so desperate for manufacturing talent.

# ¿ Dec 6, 2016 14:07

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

rscott posted:

Who says the US is desperate for manufacturing talent in the first place? US companies may act like they're facing a skills shortage but that's largely because they don't want to pay wages. That's the other big thing about automation, the capital expenses can be pretty big up front but since they're capital you can write the depreciation off in a manner that is advantageous for your taxes.

True enough, but if they can't find anyone they can pay $35/hour to program CNC machines here in the US, it doesn't seem like it will be that long before they can pay someone much less to program them remotely from China or elsewhere...

# ¿ Dec 7, 2016 02:03

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

owl_pellet posted:

I am interested in this topic because of the possible implications it has for creating more robust social security systems such as basic income or a social dividend, or to a somewhat lesser extent minimum income. What are the chances that something like this 1) gets implemented at all and 2) is implemented in a fairly reasonable period of time (I'm tempted to say 10 years here but "reasonable" for something that massive is probably more like 20)?

My thoughts and beliefs on income inequality, what it means to be employed, the importance of work vs. family, job insecurity, etc. have led me to have a strong desire for one of these systems to be in place. Preferably sooner rather than later or, you know, not at all.

I get pretty scared when people start saying things like "If things get bad enough, they'll HAVE to implent UBI". Not that you're saying that, but a lot of people seem to be. Here's one alternative - mass unemployment leads to social unrest, which leads to nationalism, which leads to war, which leads to lots of people getting killed off who would have otherwise been unemployed. Sound familiar?

# ¿ Dec 8, 2016 02:09

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

Foxfire_ posted:

Machinist chat:

I feel semi-qualified to comment since I order parts from both US and China. In my experience, it would be super weird for any shop to be making things on a manual mill. Everywhere in both countries expects to be doing CNC work and starting from CAD files, not prints. The only place who's ever wanted a print is a little shop in SF that had a waterjet that took some bizarre input format that was easier for them to make from a drawing instead of a CAD file, but it was still computer controlled when it ran.

Based on turnaround times and design restrictions, I'm pretty sure the US prototyping shop we usually use is set up for lights-out manufacturing and a machinist is just checking a mostly automated toolpath, then running it unattended overnight. The Chinese one has people running the machines.

US:
- Faster
- Closer tolerances

China:
- Takes at least 5 days to get stuff
- Stuff you don't bug them about can be wrong (i.e. if you don't make a point of asking, you can get surfaces that aren't as square as speced)
- Half/quarter of the price, less if you feel like haggling (pretty sure they're still ripping us off compared to what they would charge domestically)
- You can get weird custom things that the US workflow isn't set up for. For example, we wanted a fine diamond polish on the inside of an injection mold and the US company couldn't do it. I think the Chinese one just had a guy spend a day polishing.

What about the claim by companies that there aren't enough people trained in Advanced Manufacturing in the US, so they have to go to China or Mexico instead? Accurate or bullshit?

# ¿ Dec 8, 2016 13:10

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

Main Paineframe posted:

As a general rule of thumb, if a company claims there just aren't enough X workers to meet their demand, what they really mean is that there aren't enough X workers interested in what they're willing to pay for X, either because the company insists on underpaying for the level of skill or experience they're asking for, or because there's some massive distortion of the labor market going on (for example, the main cause of the "programmer shortage" is the massive over-concentration of tech companies in one specific place, oversaturating the local labor market).

Yes I realize that, but on the other hand there's a record low employment participation rate. Getting paid $35/hour for what people in Germany get paid $55/hour for isn't great, but it's much more than the average salary and it doesn't even require a 4-year degree.

# ¿ Dec 8, 2016 15:06

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

rscott posted:

Not too many people getting $35/hr to be a CNC programmer w/o a degree unless they have 20 years of experience, it's closer to 40k for 5 years of mastercam and catia experience from what I have seen

I meant it requires a 2-year associates degree instead of a bachelors

# ¿ Dec 8, 2016 22:47

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

BobTheJanitor posted:

That WH report seems to shy away from advocating any kind of basic income solution and only hints at vague things like 'increasing the social safety net' while mostly falling back on retraining as the solution. Which, of course, doesn't deal with the obvious question of what you're going to be retraining these people for as more and more jobs automate away, or how you're going to fit the millions of people in need of retraining into a system that's hardly built to contain them.

There are a few experiments in basic income going on in other countries, though. And past experiments in the area have shown that most of the assumptions people make about it are wrong. Most people receiving it don't stop working, they tend to be healthier and more productive, it helps the local economy and encourages entrepreneurs to try new business ideas. You'd think that would be a bipartisan win-win. But no, we live in a post-sanity society, so we'll probably soon be screaming BOOTSTRAPS at each other while we fight over the last scraps of rat meat.

Again, the current situation only requires that people get 2-year degrees in addition to a high school diploma. Maybe one day when 4-year degrees are obsolete it will be time to give up on education as the solution.

# ¿ Dec 23, 2016 20:26

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

A Wizard of Goatse posted:

Why is two years a real solution and not four? Why not a PhD? The job market isn't demanding higher and higher academic credentials because a normally clever person who'd have been a machinist in 1960 couldn't figure out how to use Microsoft Outlook without an associates' in math. The job market demands degrees because it's contracting and employers can take their pick from the hundreds of applicants struggling to find work, so an otherwise intelligent accomplished person with a high school diploma is at a crushing competitive disadvantage against scores of equally desperate intelligent accomplished people who do have one. When everybody has a college degree, the goalpost for basic employability will shift to the next thing that makes a candidate stand out from a hundred others, and the next, indefinitely so long as there's substantially more people with the same baseline qualifications who need a job to live than there are jobs to help keep them alive.

UBI addresses this problem by exchanging the promise of a basic living for surrendering ownership of everything to the capitalist class and giving up the last bargaining chip the average worker has in negotiating with the rich - the economic value of their labor. It's a reversion to feudalism, except the nobles only actually need like one in one hundred serfs to grow all their food this time around, which through mysterious means translates to they'll happily underwrite the other 99 taking up a life of fingerpainting and playing DOTA instead indefinitely.

These aren't vanity degrees, it's the simple fact that there isn't time to teach CNC/medical specializations/etc in high school. Some day I'm sure you'll be correct and UBI will be a necessity, but it's not going to be for quite a while.

# ¿ Dec 23, 2016 21:09

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

A Wizard of Goatse posted:

Not everyone's going to be a CNC operator or a radiologist, though. In fact, you couldn't employ even one in a hundred people doing that; there'd be nothing for them to do! An associates' degree won't help you get into those positions even now, and we've got no shortage of aspiring doctors and engineers with better qualifications than that who still can't get jobs.

And you're misreading me: UBI will never become "a necessity", it's a dead end. Literally, for lots of people.

That is currently not even remotely true. Employers are desperate for people with relevant 2-year degrees, and even more so for good doctors and engineers.

edit: and I'm sure the next argument will be "then they should pay more" and the circle will thus remain unbroken

SaTaMaS fucked around with this message at 21:29 on Dec 23, 2016

# ¿ Dec 23, 2016 21:26

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

rscott posted:

You do realize the labor participation rate is lower right now than at any time since (white) women entered the workforce
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

62.8% down from the peak of 67% right before the tech bubble popped the first time. The interesting thing to notice is that since the 2000 peak, the rate has been steady at best, with economic recessions shedding workers from the labor pool who are not replaced. The difference between the new "normal" of the post GFC recovery and bush's second term is about 3% or something like 4.5 million workers.

There are other reasons for the decline like the exit of baby boomers from the job market en masse but that only explains some of the decline. There are millions of people right now, in your environment of "full employment" who can not find a job.

*who aren't looking for a job

edit: some more good news, the long-term unemployment rate is the lowest it's been in a while

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/long-term-unemployment-rate

SaTaMaS fucked around with this message at 16:16 on Dec 26, 2016

# ¿ Dec 26, 2016 16:11

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

SpaceCadetBob posted:

I hope this isn't a derail, but by this logic aren't all physical reactions AI? The colorado river/grand canyon would be
code:
if(velocity > 15ftps){
    ablate();
}
?

For a lay person, AI means intelligent agents and intentionality. Basically whether Dennett's intentional stance can be said to apply. The problem is that you can take the intentional stance on simple systems like a thermostat. The thermostat wants to keep the temperature at 72 degrees so it achieves that goal by turning on the AC. In practice, AI has more to do with dealing with combinatorial explosion. AlphaGo was an achievement because it turned a search space that was intractable for a brute force approach into something that could be managed well enough to defeat a Go master.

# ¿ Jan 18, 2017 15:23

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

Blue Star posted:

Im still not convinced that automation is actually happening. Go into any store like Wal-Mart, Target, or into any food place like McDonalds, it's still the same. There may be self-serve kiosks but the technology is still very primitive. Artifical intelligence doesnt exist. Robots are still dumb and clumsy. People are still going to be driving trucks and taxis, making and serving food, selling stuff to other humans, etc for a long time to come. I go on the internet and its OMG automation, but when i go outside into the real world, it's the same as its always been. So it seems like this histeria over automation and robots and ai is just bunk.

It is overblown at the moment, but it will become a problem if Trump raises tariffs and accelerates the shift to automation.

# ¿ Jan 19, 2017 04:49

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

Blue Star posted:

Trump has nothing to do with this, its simple technology: we're not there yet. Even if he raises tariffs, it wont lead to better ai, robots, automated systems, whatever you wanna call them. You cant rush this stuff.

You're talking about low-level service jobs when the threat is to manufacturing, and we are absolutely there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_lfxPI5ObM

edit:Also, have you seen all the big box stores closing due to Amazon? Kmart, Macys, Sears, Sports Authority

SaTaMaS fucked around with this message at 05:05 on Jan 19, 2017

# ¿ Jan 19, 2017 05:01

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

Blue Star posted:

Most people work service jobs, not manufacturing. Most people are going to be working retail, food service, delivery, sales, etc. for the rest of their lives. And Kmart,Sears closing has nothing to do with automation. Amazon is just another company that employs humans, though fewer of them because they dont have physical stores. But that isnt applicable to most businesses where you need humans to do stuff.

Amazon is heavily automated, they're the leader at it in the industry.

# ¿ Jan 19, 2017 05:15

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 06:51

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:

I dunno. How would you describe the President of the United States if you were no longer allowed to use the word retard? It would be a great loss for the English language.

dotard

# ¿ Jan 9, 2018 14:50

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Automation Thread: Imagine johnny 5 squashing your job, forever