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Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Badger of Basra posted:

Seems to me that even dumber than having a garden department is having a K-Mart in Manhattan in the first place :psyduck:

It's in Penn Station and it's three floors (I work near it).

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Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

BarbarianElephant posted:

Gosh, there must be more than one, I was talking about the one at Astor Place, which is also three floors.

The real estate locked up in that place must be incomparable in value. Three enormous floors in one of the most expensive areas of the country, and it's devoted to a store that generally has about 20 people in it. It even has a private entrance to the subway.

Forgot about the Astor place one, since I usually look at the other side when I pass by. And it doesn't looks like Seritage Growth Properties (the REIT that holds the most valuable Sears properties) has the Astor Place location, so they must have a ridiculous lease (same with Penn, probably).

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Don't forget Macys, Sears/Kmart, etc. all continuing to contract after (another) terrible holiday season. 2017 looks to be another terrific year for most retailers...

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Liquid Communism posted:

Hopefully it'll finally kill Best Buy.

Best Buy has somehow staggered away from being pulled into the abyss the last few years (just like Barnes & Noble), which is bizarre since their profit margins are made on poo poo like cables and not the TVs, refrigerators, etc (which often are loss leaders).

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

CommieGIR posted:

Didn't see it posted, but Sears is lopping off Craftsman and selling them to Black and Decker.

Good idea to sell off the only remaining profitable areas - spin out the real estate to Seritage, the royalty-generating brand names (i.e, become an Iconix if the storefronts are unsustainable), etc. The best part is Lampert sinking his own funds after stripping a lot of the valuable assets. Guess he's not quite an Icahn, Pickins or Singer when it comes to vulturing.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

OhFunny posted:

It's CEO Eddie Lampert is gonna walk away with more money than less despite driving the company into the ground.

Given that he's historically been an asset vulture in the mold of an Icahn, Pickins, Singer, etc., you would hope he knows how to strip every last cent of value for himself. Of course, like most of those guys, he also gets into litigation for breach of duty, unjust enrichment, etc. and usually they end up paying back a few cents to settle the matter.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

ToxicSlurpee posted:

There was a big kerfluffle where I'm originally from...I want to say around 2003 or so when a big liquidator company like that got slapped hard for fraud. What some companies like that would do was mark the stock up then put adverts out that said "BIG CLOSING SALE! EVERYTHING MUST GO! EVERYTHING ON SALE! BUY BUY BUY!!!" It was apparently a pretty common practice already but they got greedy and people noticed. It was stuff like something that was $10 at the Walmart literally in the next building over being $18 at the closeout "sale."

What the Hilcos and other liquidator firms do is increase the price of something, say from $100 to $300, then do discount from the $300 down to, say, $150, and put up signs saying "50% DISCOUNT!", which is technically not fraudulent misrepresentation, since the discount is from the heavily marked up price.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

Is retail as a concept really threatened or are we just undergoing a generational shift in which stores succeed?

Probably a bit from column A and a bit from column B - while Amazon is certainly slapping around most chains, a number are making GBS threads the bed because of generational shift, gross incompetence (see: Sears/K-Mart), etc.I imagine that there will be significant consolidation over the next 3-5 years in an attempt to respond to Amazon (how successful that will be is up in the air, though).

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

So, it looks like hhgregg will be sinking completely into oblivion shortly - they got delisted a few days ago and have already announced the closure of around 40% of their stores before even filing for bankruptcy, which seems inevitable at this point.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Gordmans filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, although they're planning to liquidate inventory and assets, so it's effectively Chapter 7 on a store-based form (and presumably continuing as online-only given the Chapter 11). *Cues up "Another one bites the dust"*

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

OhFunny posted:



I found a nice graph of which stores are closing how many stores.

Is Payless still planning on filing for Chapter 11?

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

So Payless ShoeSource filed for Chapter 11 today. Who's next on the retail bankruptcy pool?

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

So from I've read, the full "Deathwatch" list (updated for Payless filing a few days ago) appears to be:

  • Sears/K-Mart
  • 99 Cents Only Stores
  • Charming Charlie
  • Gymboree
  • Nine West
  • rue21
  • True Religion
  • Bon-Ton
  • Fairway Market (which already filed for Chapter 11 two years ago)
  • Claire's Stores
  • J. Crew
  • TOPS Markets
  • TOMS Shoes
  • David's Bridal
  • Totes Isotoner
  • Savers thrift stores
  • Tucker Rocky
  • NYDJ

Not too shabby.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Solkanar512 posted:

You can bet that any CEO who pursued the more conservative strategy would have been mocked on CNBC or fired by their board of directors.

A lot of these chains were private equity-back leveraged buyouts (LBO) that shat the bed because of the rapid oversaturation coupled with the backlash and the heavy debt.

Jack2142 posted:

What the hell is true religion?

lovely apparel brand that was LBOd.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

I'm personally looking forward to Amazon vs. Weyland-Yutani for retail supremacy.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Didn't Eastern Outfitters already file for bankruptcy last year and closed the Sports Chalet chain?

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Ogmius815 posted:

Except don't companies come through bankruptcy pretty often? Even if only by selling all their assets to a healthy firm?

Liquidating a firm by disposing of all the assets isn't really 'coming through', though - Chapter 7 is the end of the road for that entity, even if assets such as brand names, leases, etc. are acquired by another firm.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Ogmius815 posted:

1. Haven't companies come through bankruptcy with their businesses more or less intact before? Like a bunch of airlines I seem to recall?

The airline industry is entirely different than the retail business - in addition, they changed bankruptcy rules a few years ago that pretty much requires a pre-packaged plan or else you're going to liquidate (since you only have ~210 days to reorganize).

quote:

2. You're seeing things the wrong way. The brand names, IP, products, leases, employees. That's the company. If these things are transferred to a different pool of capital and different managers, didn't everything that mattered survive?

Not really, no. And most of the time, employees and stores are gone, leaving the IP which means that it's basically a brand holding company like an Iconix rather than a real operating company that's left over.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Kind of a rehash of the previous list I posted, so no real shock on who is distressed.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Then again, Garden City, New York has one of the biggest active malls in Roosevelt Field along with one of the deadest (and according to Wikipedia, soon to be demolished after being a dead mall for pretty much a decade) in The Source Mall, all within a few miles of one another.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Aliquid posted:

Austin had a mall go almost completely deserted because word got out that sometimes black people shopped there.

Looks like they wanted to Keep Austin Weird.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

“We don’t need more customers. We have all the customers we could possibly want.”

Peak retail CEO.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

JC Penney is doing just fine, folks.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Cicero posted:

How is Searsguy still CEO? If he's so obviously incompetent, why hasn't the board removed him?

He owns about 58% of the voting stock.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

So, what's the next retail chain that's ready to swandive into the abyss?

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Stein Mart's stock went down about 1/3 third after reporting lovely results. Also, found this definition on Wikipedia, which is heartening.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Pretty certain Ann Taylor/Loft were on one of those "Most likely to default" lists that were posted recently.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

SHY NUDIST GRRL posted:

I went to king of Prussia three years ago and it was way more high end than I remember it being a decade ago.

I remember back in 1999 (or so) the gaming store that I bought some RPG source book from - not sure if it's still there so many years later.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

The Snoo posted:

sears is one of the anchor stores there, surprisingly. and it's very sad.

Don't worry - it's not long for this world.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005


Good to see the GTA V credit repo scam at work.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

glowing-fish posted:

Lets see if I can turn this great big old ship back on course:

With the Sears closings, what do you think is the predicted day for Sears to go (really) bankrupt/cease operations/sell off to Amazon, or otherwise stop existing as a going concern?

My own guess is, since we are halfway through the year, that they are going to try to make it to the holiday shopping season, and see if they can somehow pick up business through that period. It would be really bad for malls to lose an anchor right before Christmas.

Since that probably won't work out, I am assuming that next January/February will be Sears finale.

I believe they have a big non-affiliated company (i.e., not one from Eddie Lampert's loans) principal payment due next June or July, so they'll definitely go under by then. I have doubts that they won't burn through their cash before then, so your January or February date is probably more accurate.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

*Stares at $123.47 Sears Holding share price*

Uh... that's one huge dead cat bounce... :stonk:

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

*Chucks True Religion onto the bankrupt chain cart*

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Uncle Jam posted:

Well I mean does anyone see them funding a $500 million MUSEUM OF BIBLE off of the profit margins of running a hobby based retail store and go 'oh yeah that's legit'

I thought it was a meth lab front, to be honest.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

So there's a mid-year updated retail deathwatch list (listed below in order of default risk):

  • The Bon-Ton Stores
  • Sears/K-Mart
  • J. Crew
  • Claire's
  • Neiman Marcus
  • Toy's R' Us
  • Men's Wearhouse
  • J.C. Penney
  • Supervalu

The top four are the ones most likely to default in the near future, while the ones below will take longer.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

ReidRansom posted:

Kinda surprised to see that one. I thought luxury retail had largely been immune to the problems the rest of the industry was experiencing.

Neiman Marcus had financial troubles around the crisis, and has been sold several times between Private Equity firms, which each did a Leveraged Buy Out. Hudson's Bay was looking to buy them out recently, but apparently the amount of debt was a big risk factor for them.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

MooselanderII posted:

I don't see much discussion in this thread about all of the state sales tax avoidance many big e-retailers take advantage of to add extra salt in the wound. While Amazon collects sales tax in all of the states that impose it, a number of other big retailers pretty much don't collect it due to a Supreme Court decision from the early 90's that held that if you don't have physical presence in a state, you don't have to collect sales tax there. The result is that big box stores take an extra competitive hit while state and local communities lose as much at 17.2 billion each year. http://www.efairness.org/files/Updated%20Sales%20Tax%20Loss%20Report.pdf. Some states are trying to challenge this, but in this dumb political environment where nothing matters, who the heck knows if it'll be successful.

I'm actually a state and local tax guy, and many states are actually passing New York-style Amazon sales tax nexus laws and enforcing them (of course, the states that have gone into the deep end with government austerity don't have the manpower to enforce it like New York or California do). And given that the Supreme Court has only heard one state and local tax case since Quill Corp v. North Dakota (the case you're referencing, which in turn reemphasized, in part, and modified, in part, an older case called National Bella Hess v. Department of Revenue), which is Comptroller of the Treasury of Maryland v. Wynne, the decision of the state Supreme Courts effectively is de jure legal, so there's now a crazy patchwork of varying rules about tax nexus, etc.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

quote:

Yeah, the affiliate nexus laws have really taken off and as far as I know nobody has really even challenged them. I think with the DMA case finalized you're also going to see more aggressive notification laws. I'm interested to see how they're going to go after individual taxpayers for the use tax now that they have the records. That's honestly been one of the biggest challenges to getting the US Congress to move in this area. States don't audit individuals for use tax like they do businesses, so individuals totally believe that online/out-of-state sales are not sales taxed. So whenever you have something like the MFA come up it's easy to swing as "Congress wants to create a sales tax on online sales!"

States like New York have sent proposed assessments to people for years saying "We have reviewed a manifest and noticed that you brought in something valued in the manifest valued at $x - here's a proposed bill for use tax, interest and penalty. If you disagree or already paid use tax, please respond to us in writing."

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

xrunner posted:

Right. But if the Colorado law works out the way I think it will the state's actually going to have indisputable records from the retailer saying "Joe Citizen bought this thing at this price and no tax was collected." I haven't paid much attention (my employer has presence in Colorado anyway so it's mostly academic for us) but I'm wondering if DOR will be using it more for record keeping/data collection or actually sending out mass assessment notices. If you know more I'd actually be interested to hear your thoughts.

It's almost certainly for the latter.

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Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

duz posted:

Regulating interstate commerce is the domain of Congress. Sears used to be so big they made sure Congress didn't pass a law allowing states to force sales tax on them.
This was back when Sears was mainly just a mail order catalog and so they had no "presence" in the state so the state has no authority over them.

It's also because the US Supreme Court ruled in the aforementioned National Bellas Hess and Quill Corp cases that, for sales tax purposes, you needed some sort of physical presence in a state in order for the state to have jurisdiction to tax you (which is known in tax law as nexus). As duz mentioned, there is a legal theory called the Dormant Commerce Clause which basically says "Since the US Constitution (in the Commerce Clause) explicitly says only Congress can regulate commerce between states, native american tribes and other countries, it logically follows that no state can regulate commerce with other states." Note that nothing stops a state from doing pretty much anything to their own resident individuals and businesses from a tax perspective - the legal issue only crops up with interstate commerce. But even then, lots of states (backed by their state Supreme Courts) have stretched what constitutes falling under the Dormant Commerce Clause, since the US Supreme Court has only listened to one state and local tax case in the last 25 years (the Direct Marketing Association v. Brohl case was about whether the DMA had standing to sue because of the Tax Anti-Injunction Act (TAIA) and not really a tax case per se; the TAIA (and the related Tax Injunction Act, or TIA) basically says that you have to pay in any tax due and file a refund claim with the IRS or state tax authority, get it rejected and then can sue the IRS or state tax authority in court - note that this rule doesn't apply to US Tax Court filings, only US District Court and US Court of Federal Claims and state tax courts).

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