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Another poll shows Drazan leading but within MOE More interesting, it’s clear that Betsy Johnson is pulling more from Tina’s support than Drazan’s https://emersoncollegepolling.com/o...e-election-bid/ quote:A plurality of Independent voters, 34% support Drazan, 29% support Johnson, and 18% support Kotek. Among Republicans, 80% support Drazan, and 9% support Johnson, while 71% of Oregon Democrats plan to vote for Kotek, 17% express support for Johnson.
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Oct 5, 2022 22:18
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These are the poll results I've been curious to see. Before seeing numbers like this I just did not get why everyone treated it as a foregone conclusion that Johnson would pull mainly from Kotek, considering how right wing Johnson seems in general (even when viewed from within the standard US D/R divide). Looks like a pretty small sample but still, I guess there's probably something to it after all. Also, goddamnit.
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Oct 5, 2022 22:33
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alnilam posted:These are the poll results I've been curious to see. Before seeing numbers like this I just did not get why everyone treated it as a foregone conclusion that Johnson would pull mainly from Kotek, considering how right wing Johnson seems in general (even when viewed from within the standard US D/R divide). Looks like a pretty small sample but still, I guess there's probably something to it after all. Also, goddamnit. Many republicans have been trained to lie and claim they are are independent who just happen to vote R 105% of the time.
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Oct 5, 2022 23:11
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I think the reason Johnson is pulling more democrats than republicans is a combination of (1) relentless and in my opinion fairly disingenuous media focus on Portland, to which Tina and democrats more generally are closely tied to, (2) lingering resentment among non-Portland area Dems to the cap & trade debacle of a few years ago, (3) general excitement among Republicans that they could take the governorship which means while Johnson may have been pulling equally two months ago republicans are going home, and (4) just general discontent with the current party in power. I don’t think Tina was a particularly exciting candidate but let’s be honest I don’t think Tobias Read or Nick Kristoff (had he been allowed to run) would be doing any better. In the end though this ends poorly regardless. Even if Kotek ekes out a win, and especially if she loses, the retrospective is going to be “democrats must get more conservative”
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Oct 5, 2022 23:30
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Yeah, the “Portland is a crime-ridden shithole” has been resonating quite a bit lately even in the city, to say nothing of elsewhere. Like it or not, people react strongly to visible poverty, gun-related crime is a massive thing in the news, and folks only look at decriminalization of drugs or say it’s because we don’t love the cops enough, not because we did step A to treating addiction as a medical issue but not the step B of actually providing adequate outreach, services, and supports to people experiencing hardship. Basically the libs tried to do the most barebones minimum halfass approach, things are getting portrayed as even worse, and so the conservative attacks are hitting hard.
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Oct 5, 2022 23:44
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Measure 110 is actually a great example. The roll-out has been spectacularly bad, no doubt. But at the same time, the coverage suggests (1) that 110’s passage contributed to rising addiction despite the fact that for a number of reasons these numbers have been going up for years, (2) that not going to jail or prison for possession of small amounts of drugs somehow undermines the tools law enforcement have to put people into treatment programs (this is obviously wrong for a number of reasons key among them compelled rehab programs don’t have long term success and periods of incarceration do not lead to lasting sobriety, (3) ignores that incarceration for small amounts of drugs is mostly useful as a tool for removing undesirables from the streets to be warehoused rather than any real concern for the individual or the greater quality of life in the community, and (4) doesn’t bother questioning the barriers that stand between users and sobriety So the roll-out was bad, no doubt. But also the media and local leaders and law enforcement beating their drums on the issue are being disingenuous or maybe they’re just really dumb, my money is on the former
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Oct 6, 2022 00:00
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HashtagGirlboss posted:In the end though this ends poorly regardless. Even if Kotek ekes out a win, and especially if she loses, the retrospective is going to be “democrats must get more conservative” When does the media not say this? If a progressive independent got 30% of the vote somewhere and the Republican got 40% and the democrat 30%, the message would be that if the democrat had been more moderate, they could've gotten voters from the right, or that if the progressives would moderate themselves, more democrats would get elected.
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Oct 6, 2022 00:03
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HashtagGirlboss posted:Measure 110 is actually a great example. The roll-out has been spectacularly bad, no doubt. But at the same time, the coverage suggests (1) that 110’s passage contributed to rising addiction despite the fact that for a number of reasons these numbers have been going up for years, (2) that not going to jail or prison for possession of small amounts of drugs somehow undermines the tools law enforcement have to put people into treatment programs (this is obviously wrong for a number of reasons key among them compelled rehab programs don’t have long term success and periods of incarceration do not lead to lasting sobriety, (3) ignores that incarceration for small amounts of drugs is mostly useful as a tool for removing undesirables from the streets to be warehoused rather than any real concern for the individual or the greater quality of life in the community, and (4) doesn’t bother questioning the barriers that stand between users and sobriety Yeah this stuff has been driving me crazy, so many headlines like "After Measure 110, Addiction Rising" - a factually true headline I suppose, in a technical sense, but obviously very loaded. I'll read the article curious if they will give some obvious contextual info like, was it already rising before 110, or, is it rising elsewhere too, but nope! Never once have I seen them mention that stuff, they just leave it heavily implied that 110 is obviously to blame. I don't even know the answer to either of those questions, I'm guessing the answer to both is yes, but it seems like important info to have in an article like that.
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Oct 6, 2022 00:14
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alnilam posted:Yeah this stuff has been driving me crazy, so many headlines like "After Measure 110, Addiction Rising" - a factually true headline I suppose, in a technical sense, but obviously very loaded. I'll read the article curious if they will give some obvious contextual info like, was it already rising before 110, or, is it rising elsewhere too, but nope! Never once. I don't even know the answer to either of those questions, I'm guessing the answer to both is yes, but it seems like important info to have in an article like that. Oregon has a relatively high drug use rates when compared to the average state is true and Oregon’s drug use rates have been rising is also a factually true statement. The suggestion that this started on February 1, 2021 or that this became notably worse after February 1, 2021 is really stupid because we don’t even really have solid numbers yet for the last 18 months yet HashtagGirlboss fucked around with this message at 00:23 on Oct 6, 2022 |
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Oct 6, 2022 00:20
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there's absolutely no fuckin way oregon votes to repeal the decriminalization
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Oct 6, 2022 04:59
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Iamgoofball posted:there's absolutely no fuckin way oregon votes to repeal the decriminalization Maybe not. It’s really hard to predict the future. It’s not on the ballot this year anyway. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t a really intense messaging campaign against it and unless either we start to see real meaningful deceases in substance abuse (unlikely for a whole bunch of reasons entirely unrelated to decrim) or alternatively media and political leadership start talking about substance abuse and it’s drivers more honestly (lmao) I definitely would not bet against a 110 repeal and a big come to Jesus moment where everyone important agrees decrim was the one and only thing we did wrong
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Oct 6, 2022 05:50
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happy to provide info about Portland social services for anybody with questions
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Oct 18, 2022 09:56
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precious
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Very excited for Portland to decided this man should replace Jo Ann! https://twitter.com/reneforportland/status/1582409651458801666 not actually excited
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Oct 20, 2022 21:35
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HashtagGirlboss posted:Very excited for Portland to decided this man should replace Jo Ann! I hope some hero park ranger swoops in and starts issuing permits.
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Oct 20, 2022 21:41
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pseudanonymous posted:I hope some hero park ranger swoops in and starts issuing permits. Wheeler will just make him Parks & Rex commissioner
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Oct 20, 2022 21:45
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HashtagGirlboss posted:Very excited for Portland to decided this man should replace Jo Ann! Not that I expect answers I’ll like, but I’d really like to get some face to face time to get clarification on “under siege”, like by who exactly? Where are they from, how are they assailing us? What are their engines of war, and how solid are our defenses? Must I harvest early to man the wall, or will our own forces sally forth? Actually that last one is probably true, just waiting for the horse cops to come riding.
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Oct 20, 2022 22:25
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Thaddius the Large posted:Not that I expect answers I’ll like, but I’d really like to get some face to face time to get clarification on “under siege”, like by who exactly? Where are they from, how are they assailing us? What are their engines of war, and how solid are our defenses? Must I harvest early to man the wall, or will our own forces sally forth? Actually that last one is probably true, just waiting for the horse cops to come riding. Here we go! https://twitter.com/Oregonian/status/1583535853078712320 Article is paywalled but the summary from their main pages says quote:Unhoused people could be arrested or cited during tent sweeps if they refuse to go to sanctioned camping sites. Opb and willie week have free articles but neither mention that tidbit which I think is the money Opb has this: https://www.opb.org/article/2022/10/21/portland-camping-ban-mayor-ted-wheeler-homeless/ quote:It’s not clear how much it will cost or if Wheeler and other city leaders have the support they say they need from the county board and local prosecutors. Unsurprisingly, from the opb article “near unanimous” appears to not include Jo Ann quote:“Every day, my heart is broken at our failure as a society to care for our most vulnerable and provide an adequate safety net,” she said at the city press conference. “I am not here to endorse or oppose this plan at this moment but to express appreciation that there are multiple proposals on the table.”
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Oct 21, 2022 21:02
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Oh good we're still on track for the bell riots
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Oct 21, 2022 21:24
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we're way behind on constructing the millennium gate
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Oct 21, 2022 22:07
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looking forward to what our new r governor does with that in a couple months
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Oct 21, 2022 23:08
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Javid posted:looking forward to what our new r governor does with that in a couple months That’s gonna be a squeaker but I’m less certain Drazan pulls it off than I was two weeks ago. She might have pulled into the lead slightly too early and given team blue a chance to try to bring Betsy voters home But given that back in the primary iirc Drazan was talking about deputizing PPB as state law enforcement agents to get around local control of decision making then yeah, it would be really bad
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Oct 21, 2022 23:18
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HashtagGirlboss posted:That’s gonna be a squeaker but I’m less certain Drazan pulls it off than I was two weeks ago. She might have pulled into the lead slightly too early and given team blue a chance to try to bring Betsy voters home Yeah, since Phil Knight had stopped funding Johnson it seems like I never see ads for her anymore, and I am seeing a ton for both Drazan and Kotek. And the Kotek adds have gotten a whole lot better. If you were dem leaning but decided to go Johnson earlier, you might be thinking at this point that she doesn’t have a shot and you sure as hell aren’t voting for Drazan, and oh look here’s Tina talking about the ways she’s different than Kate Brown and what she is going to do (that Brown and Drazan wouldn’t). I’m hoping it’s enough to pull her through.
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Oct 22, 2022 18:45
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It's a significant step up from the burly union worker saying "Tina is tough" in the least believable tone possible.
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Oct 22, 2022 21:19
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Very important decisions are being made https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/everett-city-ordinance-banning-bikini-baristas-deemed-unconstitutional/QVP4IAPB2VBFNLGNB6RSUB4CVY/
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Oct 28, 2022 07:21
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All baristas should wear long sleeves and pants regardless of gender because they are working with scalding hot liquids, steam, and hi-temp pressure vessels. Say what you will about sex work and sex work adjacent work, it should be occurring in an environment without serious physical hazards.
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Oct 28, 2022 08:07
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oh no bacon grease splattering on my nards
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Oct 28, 2022 16:42
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Lazy_Liberal posted:oh no bacon grease splattering on my nards this is a surprisingly common fetish.
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Oct 28, 2022 16:57
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yes i have also considered the possible hazards associated with making coffee in a bikini
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Oct 28, 2022 16:58
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Shifty Nipples posted:yes i have also considered the possible hazards associated with making coffee in a bikini Anecdotally bikinis are perfectly fine for the espresso machine but I prefer to wear my French maid outfit when using the French press, just in case
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Oct 28, 2022 19:26
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HashtagGirlboss posted:Anecdotally bikinis are perfectly fine for the espresso machine but I prefer to wear my French maid outfit when using the French press, just in case Really gotta bundle up for the cold brewed stuff.
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Oct 28, 2022 19:42
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Don't ask what one wears when preparing Kopi Luwak.
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Oct 29, 2022 12:44
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Sekhmnet posted:Very important decisions are being made Hold up- the city that AFAIK gave the world bikini baristas decided to ban it? ...and then unbanned it? Maybe it shows my age and the town has changed since when I ran around there in my younger years but at least it's something different than the meth and buttrock they're known for in the area. Also agreed- there's a reason we invented clothes, aprons, and protective gear. Those ladies shouldn't have to risk scalding hot coffee on their bare skin just to ply a living.
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Oct 29, 2022 18:37
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frogge posted:Also agreed- there's a reason we invented clothes, aprons, and protective gear. Those ladies shouldn't have to risk scalding hot coffee on their bare skin just to ply a living.
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Oct 29, 2022 18:44
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No, it sounds like it was the usual crowd of God botherers against it for puritanical reasons rather than OSHA reasons.
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Oct 30, 2022 00:18
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line cook checking in to let you all know that we're collectively pointing and laughing at your goofball takes about kitchen safety
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Oct 30, 2022 03:04
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frogge posted:Hold up- the city that AFAIK gave the world bikini baristas decided to ban it? ...and then unbanned it? Maybe it shows my age and the town has changed since when I ran around there in my younger years but at least it's something different than the meth and buttrock they're known for in the area. I reckon it would be ok if the stuck to iced beverages and maybe like smoothies. But that might take away the plausible deniability from a bunch of pervs who like rolling through the bikini coffee shop because their spouses aren’t meeting their needs and they would rather not do the hard work of working out why.
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Oct 30, 2022 03:14
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frogge posted:Hold up- the city that AFAIK gave the world bikini baristas decided to ban it? ...and then unbanned it? Maybe it shows my age and the town has changed since when I ran around there in my younger years but at least it's something different than the meth and buttrock they're known for in the area. Now it's meth and the homeless.
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Oct 30, 2022 15:38
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is the coffee any good tho
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Oct 30, 2022 16:24
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:line cook checking in to let you all know that we're collectively pointing and laughing at your goofball takes about kitchen safety I never really got how you guys got to play with boiling oil with no PPE. But I guess since it's actually a vat and not like a bunker fuel strainer it's more likely to stay put and not come shooting out.
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Oct 30, 2022 16:27
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no one gives a gently caress about the health and safety of kitchen staff. pretty sure being a dishwasher has a higher likelyhood of dying on the job as being a cop does
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Oct 30, 2022 19:05
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