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sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



I'm glad something finally went well. Great job, people who actually did stuff for these wins.

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sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



Absurd Alhazred posted:

Now should we hope Roy Moore stays on the ballot for a potential Democratic win, or want him out because the mere possibility that he'd win regardless is still not worth it?

Remember when people wanted Trump to win the primary for an easy general win?

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



empty whippet box posted:

Surely it will wind up being far more than 12 points, I mean, come on, only 12 points for being outed as a pedophile?

As much as I would like to believe otherwise, the most important political issue to the vast majority of Americans is "Do you have an R or a D next to your name?", with all of reality being viewed through through the answer to that question. I think you will find that his R makes child molestation not only less bad than anything a democrat has done, but potentially a good thing.

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



axeil posted:

On the other hand, leaked polls usually exist to drive a narrative. In this case that Moore should drop out. So I'm a bit skeptical. Still :stare:

I wish we lived in a world where it wasn't surprising that child molesters lose elections.

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013




cheetah7071 posted:

Is that the kind of thing that smacks of electoral fraud or does that happen all the time by accident and we never notice in races that aren't super close?

A little bit of both, I think.

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



Absurd Alhazred posted:

What's an incorrect ballot?

It's a ballot for a different district than the one that is supposed to be given. Basically, your vote only counts in the district that you live in, but in this case the options given to you on election day are for the district neighboring you rather than your own. Since so many people don't really research elections and just vote party line, this can get by a lot of people without notice and end up with a lot of votes ending up with people they can't vote for rather than people they can. End result is a lot of invalid votes and no good way to resolve the issue.

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



Very excited for the 2018 elections considering how close this has turned out. I don't know much about anything but if things are this close in a state election of a bastion of conservatism like Alabama it seems like there's a promise of a big wave for Democrats next year.

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



I'm sorry everyone... I'm sorry that I hoped, for just a moment. :negative:

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



~270,000 votes have been counted, we still have a million more to go.

E: scale is now leaning fairly heavily towards Jones!

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



Jones +8.3 :catstare:

e: back down to 4.6 but holy gently caress I felt pretty good there for a second.

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013




:thunk:

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



Gnossiennes posted:

I thought you were surprised by the ratio for a sec (Macon = mostly black, also has Tuskegee University!!! :3:), then I saw the number

The ratio is also incredible! It's great that it also comes with a punchline.

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



What the gently caress is wrong with Dallas county? 0 of 30 precincts reporting in after this long.

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



Doom Needle, please, swing back to the left.

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



RocktheCaulk posted:

The needle is abandoning us

The Needle is merely testing our faith!

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



Back to 69% (nice)

e: with a little under a million votes in, the difference is 6,000 votes.

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



tbp posted:

may i have a link to the needle

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



axeil posted:

CNN has jefferson county's chief election official on the phone and they have votes that are counted but not reported.

it's 104k to 30k in favor of jones.

That's the current count on the NYT page, but with 50 precincts left to report.

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



its down to a few hundred votes :itshappening:

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



In the lead now, everyone, get loving hype

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



We've talked a lot of poo poo about the needle moving tonight but it has stayed firmly in Jones' side outside of like 10 minutes early in the count.

The lead has been extended to almost 9000 votes, keep pushing that lead!

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



Grab your loving surfboard for 2018.

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



Lead is 10,000 votes with 7% left to go, almost all from Dem heavy districts.

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



Excited to see everyone who came out for Moore attempt to distance themselves from him as though they didn't support a pedophile who yearned for the days of slavery.

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



axeil posted:



This is every state with a Republican PVI. Anyone at a PVI of R+15 or less is on watch now.



That's the 2018 Senate map. The only places that are safe are Utah and Wyoming.


Mississippi should absolutely be targeted next year. When Wicker won it last time he got 57% of the vote.

Dem candidate is currently someone named Jensen Bohren who I can't find anything about but the primary isn't for a while and they are trying to recruit Ray Mabus (former governor and Sec of the Navy) and Brandon Presley, the Public Service Commissioner.

Democratic recruiting was already doing really well. It's about to go bonkers.

e: I'm dumb as hell and don't know basic facts about how our election system works.

Here's the PVI for House Seats up for grabs with retiring incumbents in 2018, starting with current Republican seats:



And then Democrat seats:

sirtommygunn fucked around with this message at 17:23 on Dec 13, 2017

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



evilweasel posted:

uh, all house seats are 'up for grabs' in 2018, the whole house gets elected every 2 years. I don't know what those seats specifically are, but there are almost certainly over a hundred below R+15, not just the ones you have listed there.

Oh sorry Im a dumbass. e: those are seats with retiring incumbents, maybe I'll learn to read some day.

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



axeil posted:

I'd sort them by PVI, every House seat is up next year and I'm not sure what your argument is here w.r.t the PVI.

No argument, just wanted to add some info that I spectacularly hosed up in delivering.

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sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



Best to do everything you can before you get to the literal coin flip, hopefully it works out.

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