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Do you have the post-election doldrums? Has the election of an orange fascist clown left you blue? Do you desperately need another hit of that sweet civic juice and just can't wait until 2018? Well, good news, because two states are completely loving stupid and have gubernatorial (and other state-level) elections in 2017! Yes, this is insane and ridiculous and ensures the most drained, unenthusiastic electorate possible, why do you ask? The following states have state-level elections in this terrible year, and as of June we have now entered general election mode  , so the thread has been updated to suit! As always, if you have contributions to make, from writeups on candidates to maps to links to issue pages, please feel free! VIRGINIA The Huge Democratic Nutsack Governor: Terry McAuliffe  In the Old Dominion, noted car salesman, Clinton bagman, rum aficionado, and surprisingly okay governor Terry McAuliffe has hit his term limit and now it's time to replace him! But wasn't he just elected in 2013, I remember a whole deal with that dickwad Cuccinelli, am I high, you ask? No, friend, you are high, but you're also correct: Virginia limits its governors and other assorted officials to one term, because it is dumb! Now, T-Mac is leaving office fairly popular; despite serious opposition from a sometimes split, sometimes GOP-controlled legislature, he's presided over an expansion of Virginia infrastructure, restoration of felons' voting rights, a booming craft beer industry, and (relatedly) the installation of a Kegerator in the governor's mansion. (Really, read that article, it's hilarious.) However, as of next year, dude's out on his rear end! Obviously, with Donald loving Trump and a  Ralph Northam, Lieutenant-Governor of Virginia, the Democratic nominee for Governor, is a quiet, drawling Virginia Democrat in the old mode who nonetheless hews closely to party orthodoxy on most issues. He received the nomination after an out-of-left-field challenge from rival Tom Perriello, a firebrand progressive (though with an equally checkered voting past in some ways) who shook the race up in January. Despite that, Northam's long-standing connections, his support in highly-populated Democratic bases in Richmond and Hampton Roads, and Perriello's inability to turn out infrequent primary voters carried him to victory. An Army veteran, doctor, and resident of the 700-square-mile impending climate disaster zone known as the Eastern Shore, he's well-positioned to strike at the Republican Party-- and its famous, tangerine leader-- on several key issues. Though he's not the most inspiring figure, and he's been the target of attacks from the left thanks to his votes for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, he'll have Trump to drive Democratic turnout, and primary turnout presaged a high-turnout general for Democrats. He'll be facing:  Ed Gillespie, political strategist and former RNC chair, who has never won an election, but gosh darn it, now It's His Turn! Though he grew up a Democrat, the Southern Strategy happened, and when he heard about Reagan in 1984, he decided his attitude towards government "just made sense to me." You might have seen him on TV in 2000, when he was an advisor to the Bush campaign and a key spokesman during the recount in Florida (he was one of the organizers of the Brooks Brothers Riots). Since then, he served as chair of the GOP until 2004, and then lost a Senatorial race to fill the seat ultimately won by Mark Warner. As you might expect, he's politically very much a mainline Republican; the GOP learned the lesson of 2009, and aside from his ties to neoconservative liches like Karl Rove and his past lobbying for Enron, he's pretty standard. However, the GOP's monkey paw wish for voter engagement continues to entertain, and he faces three challengers, all Tea Party upstarts! Worth noting here is that Gillespie won his primary by less than 5000 votes against rival Corey Stewart, noted white rage elemental, Confederate monument advocate, and worst thing ever imported from Minnesota. While Gillespie has been trying his damnedest to avoid anyone mentioning the word Trump in his vicinity, the Republican Party of today is very much a Trumpian creature, even in famously moderate Virginia, thus the low margin of his victory, and Stewart has been less than gracious in defeat, charging that Gillespie would have to fight to win his voters over. Will he manage to make that diabolic deal? And what will it cost him? At the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General level, the only noteworthy figure so far is Mark Herring, incumbent Democratic Attorney General, who has been a solid force for progressive change in Virginia, taking part in lawsuits against the Trump administration on issues such as the Muslim ban. As the only one of the three statewide offices permitted to run for re-election, he will have a pretty big leg up on his competition. NEW JERSEYGovernor: Chris Christie  New Jersey isn't quite as stupid as Virginia and only limits its governors to two terms, but coincidentally, that's how many terms outgoing governor Chris Christie has had! Chris Christie, a Republican famous for sabotaging a bridge to get back at political rivals, fetching McDonalds for Donald Trump, and being very overweight, can no longer be governor! Which is actually probably a relief since there's an ongoing court case about the aforementioned bridge sabotage and Christie is getting a little hot under the collar! New Jersey has a strong tradition of electing sleazy businessmen and bankers as their Democratic governors, and if history is any guide, they're in line to do it again:  Phil Murphy, former Ambassador to Germany and former Goldman Sachs executive, is basically like if Mitt Romney was a Democrat, or maybe if Corey Booker was white. Despite the liability of his bank exec past, he is talking a good game on raising the minimum wage, keeping as much of the ACA alive in New Jersey as possible, and defying Donald Trump wherever he can. Though far from a progressive, he's pretty middle of the road as Democrats go, and he's by far the favorite in the race.  Kim Guadagno, Lieutenant Governor and Secretary of State of New Jersey, has two jobs, because Chris Christie couldn't find enough people willing to work in his administration. She faces a very steep uphill battle in a state that almost never elects Republicans and got burned very badly the last time they tried it, but she's doing her best by promising big property tax cuts and cutting state support for school funding. Like other Republicans running this year, she's trying her damnedest to avoid anyone mentioning the name Donald Trump anywhere in her vicinity, and in fact is framing some of her policy positions in terms of supporting the middle class against "millionaires in Hoboken and Jersey City." It's a bold move, Cotton, let's see how it works out for her! If you want to talk about matters of state politics relating to the upcoming elections, or the consequences of those elections, or the frustrations of low-level politics as relating to those elections, please do so! These are pretty high-impact elections for a few reasons, thanks to the GOP dominance at the state level, the potential for constitutional fuckery if they gain many more, and the opportunity to use the first major elections since Trump to gauge the blowback against him in the run up to the midterms. We've already had a lot of people commenting about the impact of the local races on them and their participation, and that's a good thing to have outside of high-traffic megathreads like the Trump Thread. Quorum fucked around with this message at 15:56 on Jun 25, 2017 |
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Jan 5, 2017 05:55
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Cease to Hope posted:https://twitter.com/ericgreitens/status/817800367119417345 Hmm I very much want to hear more about this new perk of being Missouri Governor, the Governor's Glock. Do you pass it on to your successor along with the governor's mansion? Is a new one made to suit each governor? Is it like the Fisherman's Ring where the old one is ceremonially destroyed on Inauguration Day?
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Jan 10, 2017 01:05
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Kim Jong Il posted:Wisniewski is just a generic Democrat who's making a last ditch bid for office, and is rumored to already have a deal with Murphy to serve in his cabinet. It's hilarious how quickly the state party cleared the path for Murphy. 8 years after Jon Corzine lost big. New Jersey Democrats sure as poo poo love their Goldman Sachs cash and less so their principles. Everything I've read suggests they're right about that; Chris Christie was a bit of an outlier, and he's going out so unpopular and scandal-ridden that a successor is very unlikely. Plus it's no longer 2016 so the spell of patently ridiculous outcomes is broken, says increasingly nervous man for the thirtieth time.
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Jan 10, 2017 05:54
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nonrev posted:Special elections are being held today in parts of Virginia. There a very small chance it could shift the state senate back to slight Democratic control. I've been getting piles of mailers for weeks despite not living or voting in the contentious district for ages. There's definitely a lot of money being poured into it!
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Jan 10, 2017 17:26
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axeil posted:A "fun" fact on the GOP side, Corey Stewart has been getting in Twitter fights about Confederate memorials and is being a general piece of poo poo. This probably means he's somehow going to win his primary. It's interesting that he's taking this tack; I assume it's because he's polling down against his rivals for the GOP nomination, so he's being outrageous in an attempt to shake things up. His bet seems to be that Trumpism is dominant in Republican politics right now, so he should be as Trumpy as possible (with extra Confederate flags because this is the former Confederacy). But what boggles my mind is that not only did Trump not win Virginia, the only southern state to vote for Hillary, he didn't even win the Republican primary here! State politics are very dominated by urban areas, especially Northern Virginia, which has fewer Republicans than Democrats but still has a hell of a lot of Republicans, and they tend to go for sober, Serious People who will slash taxes and regulations. Even The Cooch only won his race through serious backroom deals that switched the nominating process to use a convention instead of a primary. It's a dumb bet and I can't help but wonder if he's hoping to be snatched up as a candidate for something federal or an executive appointment after this.
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May 2, 2017 01:17
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GreyjoyBastard posted:Which has to be loving ratified by 75% of State Whatsits. While this is true, it is theoretically possible for a constitutional convention to just straight-up write a new constitution with its own ratification conditions (such as only two thirds of the states or whatever). This is actually how the current Constitution came to be; the Articles called for unanimous approval for amendments, and the constitutional convention kinda fuzzed things because they knew that was insane and the Articles were broken as hell. Now, that worked because the states had some disagreements but generally did want to be part of this nation, and the quibbles about procedure were papered over by the full-court PR campaign by the Federalists. If that were to happen today, it would result in the country dissolving.
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May 2, 2017 01:47
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So, I was pretty excited to hear that Pod Save America had Tom Perriello on the other day, if you don't listen to them, here is a link to the episode and you can go to 41:20 to skip the dumb ads and frustrated angry screaming about AHCA if you prefer. Apparently the guy is nuts for craft beer, which is a good sign because Virginia has a strong track record of electing governors who are a little nuts about craft beer (see also: kegerator).
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May 7, 2017 15:25
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axeil posted:Reminder to all VA-Goons, our primary is on Tuesday This is pretty gross and unfortunate-- up to now the race really has remained quite clean of the sort of negative ads that this represents. I suspect both candidates saw the animosity stirred after last year's presidential primaries and didn't want to do more than necessary to stir it up again. The race is still very tight, though, according to sparse polling, which makes it an enthusiasm and turnout game. Tom indisputably inspires more enthusiasm, but he's also angling to pick up people who don't vote as frequently, like young voters and rural democrats (I saw his signs alongside pipeline protest signs lining every road in Nelson County, for instance). Ordinarily I'd say this would be a very risky and unlikely strategy in Virginia'a ludicrously low turnout gubernatorial elections, but with Trump, I think it's got a much better chance of succeeding. I suspect Northam is feeling the heat and even if he himself didn't order this desperate line of attack ads, he's glad to have someone firing away. e: I'm planning to update the OP following the primary, since most of these guys won't be relevant anymore and the races will start getting more play nationally as the summer progresses.
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Jun 10, 2017 14:54
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Hi friends! Today is primary day in Virginia, go vote! After today America's dumb off off year elections will all have pivoted to general election mode, and I know everyone is just desperately missing life in general election mode after last year, so get hype!
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Jun 13, 2017 14:11
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The Glumslinger posted:Well, Northam is currently leading by over 13% with about 40% of the vote in, so it looks like he won So it seems, but that's the trouble with campaigns like Perriello's that try to convince people who don't vote in primaries to vote in primaries. For some reason, they rarely work. It's still possible that he could have reservoirs of votes in late counting areas, but I wouldn't hold out too much hope.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:10
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:It's really strange how much of the "heartland" seems to be going to the liberal dem. There's something to take away from that but hell if I know what it is. The thing to take away from it is that the matchup isn't exactly what you imagine it to be. it's hardly equivalent to the Clinton Bernie matchup, in that both of them have fairly spotty records. How they differ is mostly in their style of politics, and it's that what you're seeing on the map. Unfortunately, like I said above, appeals to infrequent voters are very risky. There's a reason why Democratic politicians campaign as they do in Democratic primaries, and that calculus really won't change until the demographics of who votes in the primaries changes.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:15
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axeil posted:AP has called the race for Northam Yeah, that's still true, 538 still holds that the fundamentals are strongly in Dems favor. I'm still sad because I feel that Tom had a better chance to energize folks who really need to be energized in off year elections, but if he couldn't do that in the primaries, it's a bit of a wash, I suppose. We certainly have not seen the last of Tom, either, on the state or even the federal levels. On the basis of his showing here, I suspect he'll make a strong run for either governor next time around or federal office.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:20
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Zikan posted:https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/874784547489165312 I'm definitely the one harping on how this primary cycle is not the same as last primary cycle, but oh my God if we actually are stuck in a groundhog day style Loop repeating 2016 over and over again, I think I may begin setting fire to things
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Jun 14, 2017 01:26
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Kevin DuBrow posted:Here's to VA holding it down in November. McAuliffe had the most vetoes in VA history. A statewide popular election is the only thing preventing us from being a bathroom bill passing, ACA-blocking dystopia. Only half kidding. Pretty much; it'll be a drat close one with two ""moderates"" (note double scare quotes) on the ballot. Fortunately Virginia is famously spiteful and Gillespie will get tied to Trump whether he likes it or not.
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Jun 14, 2017 04:32
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Gorilla Desperado posted:Danica is pretty awesome: This Trans Metalhead Stepmom Is Making a Historic Run for Office in Virginia Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:This interview with her is kickass that interview posted:“So when we’re looking at that, saving lives, of course, has to be our top issue, but you know, we’re talking about jobs here, we’re talking about education here. We’re talking about transportation here, but at the very least the conversation that you and I are having right now is entirely about quality of life issues whereas Delegate Marshall this year puts in four anti-LGBT bills, five abortion bills. A bill about pornography. A bill that’s saying that ISIS is bad, and by the way, he couldn’t even get ISIS is bad passed in a Republican Subcommittee?! Are you kidding? I mean that’s lay-ups right there. My five-year old could have passed that bill, and by five year old, I mean my cat. I mean, come on, you gotta do better than that." She is great. 
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Jun 15, 2017 17:17
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OP is now updated for general election mode!
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Jun 24, 2017 21:40
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I was at the live taping of pod save America in Richmond last night, they had all three Statewide candidates on for an interview, as well as Symone Sanders. I think they all did a fine job, though Justin Fairfax is obviously a more out and out charismatic guy and more comfortable with talking policy specifics then Northam, who can come across as somewhat awkward from time to time, though his aww shucks folksiness does help. And as always, Herring was the best, he's such a good attorney general. Symone Sanders gave a really excellent rebuttal to anyone who would dare think of non-voting as a response to real or perceived shittery from the Democrats, which I might hunt down and snip it so I can send it to people. And in a hilarious turn of events, the segment where they wander around the room and talk to people about what they're doing to get out the vote ended up with like half of the people they talk to actually being House of delegates candidates.
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Nov 6, 2017 22:56
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Yes, that's got me worried too. In an election like this one that will ultimately come down to turn out above all else, rain is one of the worst signs. It will hurt our turnout. We've just got to make sure that everything we're doing to boost turnout will be enough to outweigh it, especially in this case driving people to the polls and otherwise facilitating voting.
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Nov 6, 2017 23:50
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Worthy of note is this article from 538. In addition to just being mildly reassuring, it also includes a table for assessing Gillespie's performance vs the benchmarks he needs in each locality to be on track to win statewide, for the purpose of real-time constant heart attacks tomorrow night. A caution, however: polls close at 7, but the first results in after that will generally be from West Bumfuckia, with their low population precincts and fewer number of precincts in the county overall, and these precincts tend Republican. The heavily populated precincts in the cities and especially NOVA won't really begin to rain votes until later; last year it was between 11 and midnight if I'm recalling correctly. So that's why the benchmarks are useful: they let you compare performance no matter how many localities are reporting at high percentages, because I know everyone here is a masochist who will be doing that all night. For kicks, scroll down the table and see if you can spot without reading where the list of counties stops and the list of independent cities begins.
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Nov 7, 2017 01:51
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Anecdotal polling place busyness reports mean nothing at this stage, but for what it's worth my precinct, in the fan neighborhood of Richmond, wasn't really packed, there was no line, but there was a steady stream of people coming in and out.
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Nov 7, 2017 13:18
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axeil posted:Massive lines in Arlington. Like they were last year. Good. Colleagues in suburban Williamsburg reporting low turnout this morning, which is mostly a positive.
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Nov 7, 2017 14:15
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mcmagic posted:If you live in VA you should at least be excited to vote for Mark Herring even if Northam is a big nothing. Yep, and Herring and Fairfax will be severely hamstrung if they have a Republican governor and legislature. So go out and just do it, and then pressure him to pull a TMac and be super good! Ventana posted:What time will the polls close/results start to come in? 7 and 8ish respectively. Could be 11 or 12 before we're all done.
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Nov 7, 2017 16:18
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Your Boy Fancy posted:Justin Fairfax too. He's a tremendous candidate, great energy, listens to everything you say intently. He's going to be a force. FAIRFAX FOR AMERICA. Still lolling hard about primary undecideds breaking hard for Fairfax... in Fairfax County. 
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Nov 7, 2017 16:36
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God bless our drunk car salesman governor.
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Nov 7, 2017 16:39
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axeil posted:I feel drinking with T-Mac would be a really fun time given the infamous "Hillary rum" interview. He shows up to give speeches at beer festivals (and just regular festivals) all the time, and he's usually two sheets to the wind and clearly having a great time. Can confirm.
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Nov 7, 2017 18:30
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DACK FAYDEN posted:I'm with the poster you were responding to - I don't doubt the research at all, but those people are even more foreign to me than the people who never vote at all. How are you going to vote, but then the weather stops you? Like, what form does that utility calculation take? I've also seen research to show that turnout is reduced by rain less or not at all in close elections, which would tend to suggest that rain keeps home the people who don't think they really need to vote, and that maybe it's more of a luxury or a nice thing to do. In close races it doesn't have as much effect.
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Nov 7, 2017 19:06
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farraday posted:https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/927991987638292482?s=17 Democrats really regretted nominating Jim Gilmore in 2020
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Nov 7, 2017 21:18
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farraday posted:If you look closely, Maryland is also looking up Northam. That three and a half hours includes the after-work rush, as well, when votes will go up at a similar speed to this morning between 8 and 10. Arlington is a punch clock suburb, driven by the cycles of the 9 to 5, so it's looking tentatively hopeful.
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Nov 7, 2017 21:48
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Your Boy Fancy posted:Update: since NoVA has gone as well as it has, we've pulled all phone bankers toward Petersburg. For those who haven't obsessed over the statistics as much as some of us have, Petersburg is the most hilariously Democratic locality in Virginia. The average large Democratic City ran at about a D+50 margin last year, the even more hardcore university town of Charlottesville went about D+60. Petersburg went D + 75.
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Nov 7, 2017 22:47
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axeil posted:You ever been to Jamestown? One of the coolest adult vacations I ever did was, dorky enough, Colonial Williamsburg + Jamestown. It's crazy walking around the Jamestown ruins and realizing just how old it is. It's also really, really pretty in the fall. It's flipping gorgeous in fall. Right now my "office view" is out over the James River with the leaves just starting to turn red and gold, which almost makes up for being immersed in freezing water up to my wrists half the time. One of my favorite experiences from Jamestown (go to the real one, not just the fake one, you drat kids  ) is standing on a brick hearth floor waist deep in an excavation, pointing to the 250-year-old plantation house ruins a stone's throw away, and reminding the person I was talking to that to the people who lived in the house when it was built, that hearth floor was as long in the past as the Civil War is now.
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Nov 7, 2017 23:13
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farraday posted:Yeah, in fall. What I always tell people is if you come on a golden morning in early May, you'll see why the colonists thought there was no land so perfectly fit for man. If you come on a sweltering August afternoon, you'll be dead, just like two-thirds of those same colonists. 
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Nov 7, 2017 23:17
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empty whippet box posted:You don't know that, they might be coming out to support the nazis. This is probably a joke but unlikely-- remember that Petersburg is the most Democratic locality at D+75, but Cville comes in second with a respectable D+57. (Third is Richmond with D+54, followed by Arlington, Falls Church, and Alexandria all clustered very close together at about ~D+47, and the actual cities of the Hampton Roads in the high D+30s.) The table in this article is well worth considering, both in conjunction with relative turnout numbers vs. 2013 and last year, and as results start to come out.
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Nov 7, 2017 23:28
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The Confederate statue issue is very important to Gillespie's base, while Northam's is split-- white college-educated lean keep but don't have strong feelings on the matter usually, while black voters loving hate the monuments and no loving wonder. So this is about what you get in the population as a whole, and doesn't say a lot about how their opinion re statues influenced their vote. Also, farraday posted:DO NOT TRUST EARLY EXITS
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Nov 7, 2017 23:42
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Lightning Knight posted:I'm getting 2016 flashbacks right now, the smugness draining into horror at the realization that We'd Been Had. I understand the temptation to look at polls and freak out but if you do that you'll need to grapple with why you believe that some of them are predictive and others aren't. The better course is to realize that early exits suck and nobody can really know anything yet!
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Nov 7, 2017 23:46
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axeil posted:https://twitter.com/MelissaCBS6/status/928022842679201797 Good, gently caress Chesterfield.
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Nov 7, 2017 23:54
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SHOAH NUFF posted:the hairs on my neck stood up when I saw that NYT expected outcome gauge, and now my mouth is really dry Yep, last year's election was quite literally a traumatizing event, with all of the related psychological responses
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Nov 8, 2017 00:03
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By the way, this page is the one you want if you want a cool map. Also featuring the Doom Needle! All hail the Doom Needle!
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Nov 8, 2017 00:07
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axeil posted:Good point. I've been taking polls for what people want to replace Monument Avenue with, so far my suggestion of Wahunsenecawh/Chief Powhatan for Jeb! Stuart's place is meeting with moderate acceptance but everyone can get behind dynamiting Jeff Davis and replacing him with Elizabeth van Lew
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Nov 8, 2017 00:18
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Your Boy Fancy posted:Labor office is closed. Go home and take a nice long bubble bath, the crushing horror of the Needle will still be here when you get back (because we've still got four hours to go before we know anything with solidity aaaaa)
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Nov 8, 2017 00:20
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axeil posted:https://twitter.com/VotingGuy/status/928039580082884609 Seriously though, God bless Petersburg. Your city is falling apart, your government almost had to declare bankruptcy thanks to perennial malfeasance, there was briefly talk of your city itself ceasing to exist, but you always come through.
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Nov 8, 2017 00:29
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