2017 State-Level Elections: America's "Special" Children

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axeil: Feb 14, 2006

the off-off year VA races are always amusing. so glad we get to have a proxy hillary/bernie fight in the dem primary. just what we all wanted. :sigh:

# ¿ Jan 5, 2017 15:51

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# ¿ May 10, 2024 21:15

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

I wrote some stuff about the VA races as there is now enough info to do more than speculate.

1. Who wins the Dem Primary for Governor?

VA is a weird state where the Governor can only serve one consecutive term. So despite Terry McAuliffe being insanely popular (I can't believe I just said that :psyduck:

) he will be stepping down.

The race here is has fairly popular Lt. Governor Ralph Northram running against a grass-roots style campaign of former Congressman Tom Perriello . It's another Establishment/Grassroots fight but the Centrist/Leftist flip is different from other similar races as Northram is arguably much more liberal than Perriello. Northram also has a lot of friends in Northern Virginia who he's helped out in the past so he's likely to do well there. I personally still have no idea who to vote for. Should be interesting! Election is June 13th.

The most recent primary poll has Perriello at 25% to Northram's 20% with another 51% undecided.

Polling indicates that either man has around an 11 point lead over likely GOP challenger and former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie.

Polling source: https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2450

2. Do the Dems take the State Senate?

In 2013 after McAuliffe won the State Senate was exactly tied, 20-20. There was then some very shady dealings after 2014 that resulted in one Democratic State Senator retiring with allegations that he was bribed. The GOP won the special election and have held the State Senate by one vote since 2015. The Dems have been itching to take the Senate back since then and in my opinion look extremely likely to do so, with a lot of GOP Senators sitting in districts that Hillary won easily. The only reason these people kept their seats is because VA State-level elections are off-off year so the GOP has benefited from low turnout.

I'd say given the current political winds chances are very good the Dems pick up at least 1-2 Senators to retake control.

3. What happens in the VA House of Delegates?

Currently the GOP holds the state house with 66 Delegates to the Dem's 34, enough for a super majority. The GOP actually just used this super majority to block the Governor's Medicaid expansion plans. The Dems haven't had a majority since 1998 when they held 50 seats. They are hoping that everything changes this year. There are 17 GOP Delegates in districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Coincidentally, the Dems need a pickup of exactly 17 seats to win back the House of Delegates. The Dems have recruited very aggressively and have challengers in all 17 of these districts plus another 32 districts that could become competitive if there is a wave.

Whereas in 2013 the Dems only ran candidates in about half the districts up for election, this time they are running candidates in 83 of the 100 districts and only giving up the districts where Mark Warner got less than a third of the vote in his Senate race in 2014. Ideally you'd want candidates in all these races but they've done a remarkable job recruiting considering how daunting some of these races are.

Of course, expectations are still that the GOP will win, but the more the Dems can cut into the margin the better.

Sources:

http://bluevirginia.us/2017/02/2017-virginia-democratic-house-candidates-district

https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2017

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senate_of_Virginia#History

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_House_of_Delegates_election,_2017

# ¿ Apr 12, 2017 16:29

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

The VA Dems had their first Gubernatorial Primary Debate. It was mostly about the issues and saying Trump sucks. I'm still extremely torn on who to vote for, they both seem like excellent candidates, especially with Perriello coming out and saying all campaigns should be publicly financed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...m=.df5d59fba84e

Washington Post posted:

Northam and Perriello hold their fire in first Democratic gubernatorial debate in Va.

Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and former congressman Tom Perriello, locked in a neck-and-neck battle for the Democratic nomination to be Virginia�s governor, saved their harshest words for President Trump over the weekend, making their first primary debate a largely positive, gentlemanly affair.

Northam and Perriello generally agreed on policy and exchanged only a few, gentle jabs during the hour-long forum moderated by NBC4 reporter Tom Sherwood. Saturday�s debate, the first of five, was held in Fairfax County � important territory in voter-rich Northern Virginia.

Offered a chance to rebut Northam�s assertion that Virginians should have greater priority in admission to public colleges and universities, compared with out-of-state students, Perriello said, �I would just take 30 seconds back to agree.�

Perriello, who upset Virginia�s Democratic establishment with his unexpected entry into the race in January, took pains to several times praise term-limited Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D), who is backing Northam.

�I think McAuliffe has done a tremendous job,� Perriello said in response to a question about whether this is a �change election.�

Yet Perriello also suggested he would do more to address the state�s opioid crisis, revamp its �regressive criminal code,� and raise the minimum wage, which he called a �poverty wage� in pricey Northern Virginia.

�So, no, I�m not satisfied with the status quo,� he said.

Sometimes knocked as too low-key, Northam was loose and lively. He left his spot on the stage at one point, after Sherwood forgot to give him a crack at a question, to playfully mark up the moderator�s notes as a teacher might correct a student�s paper.

While amiable all night, the lieutenant governor still asserted his liberal bona fides � and questioned Perriello�s with a few digs about the former congressman�s receipt of �dark money� from a political group that does not identify most of its donors, his past support for the National Rifle Association and his mixed record on abortion rights.

�I am the only statewide elected official over the years that has been outspoken against offshore drilling,� Northam said. �I have opposed fracking. . . . I have been against uranium mining.�

Sherwood gave each candidate the opportunity to ask the other a question � something Perriello said caught him off guard. He went first, with a softball: �The question I would ask is: What do you think you have learned most from your great service as lieutenant governor?�

When Northam was up, he lobbed something harder. He asked Perriello why he took campaign contributions from the NRA while in Congress, noting that it was after the 2007 mass shooting at Virginia Tech.

Perriello, who got an �A� rating from the NRA when he ran for Congress, noted he is no longer in the group�s good graces. �I called them a �nut-job, extremist organization� and compared them to the John Birch Society,� he said. �I don�t imagine those checks are in the mail.�

Northam, 57, is a pediatric neurologist from the Eastern Shore who graduated from the Virginia Military Institute and, as an Army major, treated wounded soldiers during Operation Desert Storm. He said that he grew up with an appreciation of hunting but that, after treating toddlers injured by guns, he knew that �assault weapons have no place on our streets.�

He also spoke about taking on the tobacco industry as a legislator when he pushed through the state�s ban on smoking in restaurants, and how he skewered Republican efforts to require women to get a transvaginal ultrasound before obtaining an abortion.

Perriello, 42, grew up outside Charlottesville and got his undergraduate and law degrees from Yale. He won election to Congress in 2008. During his single term, he won stature within the party for supporting the Affordable Care Act despite his conservative district. He lost reelection in the tea party wave of 2010, in part because of his support for the health-care law � something that endeared him to President Obama.

But Perriello also has drawn fire from liberals for advocating an amendment to the ACA that would have prevented federal subsidies for insurance plans that cover abortion. Asked by Sherwood about abortion, Perriello made no mention of his past. Instead, he presented himself as a strong advocate for abortion rights and also said abortion services should be made more accessible, noting some places around the state lack clinics.

Perriello has sworn off donations from Dominion Power � the state�s largest utility and largest political donor � and opposes two oil and natural gas pipelines planned for rural Virginia. Northam has not taken a position on the pipelines, which McAuliffe has touted as a source of jobs, but says they must be subjected to strict environmental review.

One of the sharpest exchanges of the night came after Northam said he had sent letter to state environmental officials, pressing them to make the pipeline review process more transparent. Perriello asked Northam if he had discussed the letter beforehand with Dominion.

�I�m not going to stand here on the witness stand,� Northam replied. �It�s not a �yes� or �no,� or us versus them.�

Perriello repeated his call for publicly financed campaigns. Northam said he favors comprehensive campaign finance reform.

The debate did not dwell on Trump, but Perriello framed his bid as a means of resisting the president in a closing statement so fiery that Sherwood responded with, �Pass the collection plate.�

�Just a few months ago, most of us were busy crying,� Perriello said to laughs. �We were paralyzed. We didn�t know what had become of a country that had elected a person who had run the most overtly racist campaign of my lifetime. . . . But all of you, and millions of others across the country, decided to get up off our couch and organize and resist.�

He continued: �I have pledged to, within the limits of the law, to have noncompliance with any acts of the Trump administration that are unconstitutional and unconscionable in nature.�

Northam, while vowing to �stand up to the narcissistic maniac on the other side of the Potomac,� mostly went for the soft sell.

�As a pediatrician, I have held a lot of babies in my arms,� he said. �And when you look into the eyes of a baby, you know, you don�t see the hatred and the bigotry that we so often see in society. And our question � as a society, as Virginians � is, what are these babies going to grow up to be? . . . Are they going to have access to a world-class education system? Are they going to have access to affordable health care? And are they going to live in environments where the air and the water are clean?�

There was no real discussion of the three Republicans running for governor, but Perriello criticized the front-runner, former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie, for not speaking out against Trump�s entry ban on travelers from predominantly Muslim countries.

Gillespie faces Prince William County Supervisors Chairman Corey A. Stewart and state Sen. Frank W. Wagner (Virginia Beach) in the GOP�s June 13 primary. The general election takes place Nov. 7.

A "fun" fact on the GOP side, Corey Stewart has been getting in Twitter fights about Confederate memorials and is being a general piece of poo poo. This probably means he's somehow going to win his primary.

# ¿ May 1, 2017 22:35

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

mcmagic posted:

I went to a forum tonight for the NJ Governor's primary that all the candidates showed up for other than Kim Guardano. It's unbelievable to me that the party would nominate someone like Murphy who is a true goldman sachs mediocrity after what we went through with Corzine. Murphy is ahead by a mile and he talks the part but he also looks and talks like a used car salesman... I guess we just have to hope that he's our version of Mcauliffe?

A T-Mac for NJ isn't that bad an outcome. I was pretty annoyed about him back in 2013 but he's been a remarkably effective governor and would easily win a 2nd term if VA politics weren't weird.

Your point on Corzine is an apt one though and something to be more concerned with given the NJ Democratic Party's past history though.

# ¿ May 2, 2017 03:34

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

mcmagic posted:

The NJ Democratic party is a cesspool of shittiness so it's much more likely that Murphy will govern as Andrew Cuomo 2.0 than McAuliffe. All you need to know about the party in this state is that they basically gifted the governorship to an ex Goldman Sachs professional fundraiser for the DNC. The guy is completely unimpressive other than his ability to self fund.

Guy still has to get through the primary right? Who are his opponents?

Also in NJ being ex-Goldman might be an asset rather than a liability when half of North Jersey is linked to the financial sector.

# ¿ May 2, 2017 15:12

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

mcmagic posted:

The guy who has the best chance of winning other than Murphy is John Wisniewski who is a state assemblyman that was involved in the Bridgegate investigation. He's pretty good and progressive. Is for Single Payer and pot legalization and 15 dollar wage. Give him money if you can.... http://wiz2017.com/

Murphy is way up in the polls but there is still over 50% undecided and Murphy literally the only one on TV right now.

Huh, interesting. VA has a similar level of undecided, but here, unlike up in NJ there doesn't really seem to be much to distinguish between the two candidates. I think most people would be happy with either one.

When's the primary? Ours is in June. Both candidates are going to be up in NOVA today for a debate so I'm hoping I can get to go and see their debate.

# ¿ May 2, 2017 15:34

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

FourLeaf posted:

https://twitter.com/zellieimani/status/859883659712647168

drat.

He's not wrong.

# ¿ May 5, 2017 13:00

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Reminder to all VA-Goons, our primary is on Tuesday

Please go vote for Tom Perriello because Ralph Northam has turned out to be a major cock:

http://www.richmond.com/news/virgin...7eed42c17d.html

Richmond Times-Dispatch posted:

A mysterious PAC supporting Lt. Gov. Ralph S. Northam in Virginia�s Democratic gubernatorial primary has launched a last-minute digital ad that attacks former U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello over a controversial abortion vote, a negative message that drew a public rebuke from Northam.

The political action committee, Virginians for a Better Future, has filed reports with the Virginia Department of Elections saying it will spend roughly $120,000 on digital ads and direct mail supporting Northam and opposing Perriello in the final stretch before Tuesday�s primary. Though the identities of the PAC�s backers are unclear, the filings show the ad campaign was created with the help of companies with ties to prominent Virginia Democrats backing Northam, including Gov. Terry McAuliffe and influential state Sen. Richard L. Saslaw of Fairfax County.

Saslaw and the governor�s office said they had no knowledge of the PAC�s activities. The little-known Democratic operative listed as the PAC�s treasurer, Michael McShane of Keswick, did not return three messages left Thursday at the phone number listed on the PAC�s public filing. The PAC has not filed a report with the state disclosing its funding sources, and won�t have to file until after the primary.

At the beginning of their tightly contested primary battle, Perriello and Northam pledged to run gentlemanly, substantive campaigns. Though they�ve sparred on debate stages over their voting records, there has been no negative advertising from the campaigns thus far.

It�s not clear how many potential Democratic voters the ads could reach, but the outside spending could add to Northam�s advertising advantage with the Perriello campaign apparently running low on resources. Perriello loaned his own campaign $150,000 this week, according to the campaign, an infusion that required selling off assets and reaching into his savings.

In an email sent to McShane on Wednesday and copied to the Perriello campaign and several reporters, Northam told the PAC�s treasurer he wants the campaign to stay positive and insisted the messaging be driven by the candidates themselves in a spirit of �transparency and accountability.�

�Any negative campaigning against my opponent will draw an immediate denouncement from my campaign,� wrote Northam, who has criticized �dark money� in politics and called for sweeping reforms to Virginia�s loose campaign finance laws. �Therefore I am asking your committee to halt any and all spending that would constitute an attack on my opponent�s record.�

Perriello said in a statement Thursday evening that �close associates and backers of Lt. Gov. Northam have launched a desperate last-minute negative campaign against me,� adding: �This is exactly the kind of thing that correctly disgusts people about politics.� Perriello called on Northam to �show leadership in shutting down this shady campaign by tomorrow.�

In its independent expenditure filings with the state, required within 24 hours of money being used to influence an election, the PAC identified Seattle-based Moxie Media as the company it paid for a roughly $60,000 direct mail campaign. Moxie�s website lists Brian Zuzenak, McAuliffe�s former political director who led Hillary Clinton�s presidential campaign in Virginia last year, as a partner at the firm. Zuzenak and Moxie did not respond to requests for comment.

Zuzenak formerly led McAuliffe�s Common Good VA PAC. The governor�s PAC paid him $13,500 in December for consulting work, according to state records compiled by the Virginia Public Access Project.

McAuliffe spokesman Brian Coy said the governor and his team had �no knowledge this was taking place� and agrees with Northam that negative ads are out of bounds.

�He hopes the ad campaign stops,� Coy said. �And he wants this primary to end on a positive note.�

The Perriello campaign said it became aware of the ads Sunday after a supporter spotted one on Facebook and brought it to the campaign�s attention.

The address listed for the company behind digital video ads that have been promoted on Facebook matches the address for SBDigital, a Washington, D.C., firm that employs Saslaw�s former campaign manager, Sam Sterling, as its director of campaigns and new media, according to the company�s website. Sterling and SBDigital did not respond to requests for comment.

The video ad, tagged �SBDigital � Bully 30� on the Virginians for a Better Future website, begins with a series of ominous headlines about President Donald Trump as a narrator says: �A bully threatens our way of life.�

�Who can we count on to stand up to Donald Trump? Not Tom Perriello,� the narrator says as a red �no� symbol appears over a photo of Perriello.

The ad then mentions Perriello�s vote in Congress for the so-called Stupak amendment, which would have prohibited federal funding for abortion coverage in the government-subsidized insurance plans being considered under the Affordable Care Act. Perriello has repeatedly said he regrets the 2009 vote. At the time, he has said, he was trying to keep a promise he made to constituents in his largely rural, Republican-leaning 5th Congressional District to ensure the health care bill complied with existing legislative provisions that prevent federal dollars from paying for abortions except in cases of incest and rape or when the mother�s health is at risk.

The PAC didn�t seem to heed Northam�s request to stop. The ad remained online as of late Thursday afternoon.

�Rather than sending a letter to the press, a far more effective way for them to get this desperate attack ad pulled would be to call their top surrogate Dick Saslaw directly,� said Perriello campaign spokesman Ian Sams.

In a brief phone interview, Saslaw said he doesn�t know who�s behind the PAC.

�I have no idea,� Saslaw said. �Never even heard of �em.�

# ¿ Jun 10, 2017 14:36

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Quorum posted:

This is pretty gross and unfortunate-- up to now the race really has remained quite clean of the sort of negative ads that this represents. I suspect both candidates saw the animosity stirred after last year's presidential primaries and didn't want to do more than necessary to stir it up again. The race is still very tight, though, according to sparse polling, which makes it an enthusiasm and turnout game. Tom indisputably inspires more enthusiasm, but he's also angling to pick up people who don't vote as frequently, like young voters and rural democrats (I saw his signs alongside pipeline protest signs lining every road in Nelson County, for instance). Ordinarily I'd say this would be a very risky and unlikely strategy in Virginia'a ludicrously low turnout gubernatorial elections, but with Trump, I think it's got a much better chance of succeeding. I suspect Northam is feeling the heat and even if he himself didn't order this desperate line of attack ads, he's glad to have someone firing away.

e: I'm planning to update the OP following the primary, since most of these guys won't be relevant anymore and the races will start getting more play nationally as the summer progresses.

I saw a poll that showed things were pretty much a dead heat in NOVA, Perriello winning Richmond, Charlottesville and Western VA and Northam winning VA Beach. If that's the case it'll come down to NOVA. It's gonna be close.

http://wavy.com/2017/06/09/hampton-university-governor-poll-data/

It shows a 6 point lead for Perriello but has a laughable 50% undecided which is probably why Northam is pulling out dirty campaigning tactics in desperation.

An internal Perriello poll has him with 1 point lead with 29% undecided.

Basically poo poo is all over the place.

edit: for what it's worth everyone I know here in NOVA, Bernie and Hillary voters alike are going for Perriello. Even my boss who was a hardcore Hillary person is going Perriello because she seems him as being more committed to Obamacare.

edit 2: WaPo has a good article up about Northam and Perriello's appeals to the black community in VA. Perriello has called for an end to Lee-Jackson Day (FINALLY).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...m=.e0c0b9abc6f0

axeil fucked around with this message at 15:11 on Jun 10, 2017

# ¿ Jun 10, 2017 14:57

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Quorum posted:

Hi friends! Today is primary day in Virginia, go vote! After today America's dumb off off year elections will all have pivoted to general election mode, and I know everyone is just desperately missing life in general election mode after last year, so get hype!

I am hoping and praying for Perriello given that Northam went negative at the last minute and seems to be conceding without any hope that the GOP will continue to have a super majority in the House of Delegates.

# ¿ Jun 13, 2017 23:20

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

AP has called the race for Northam :smith:

Well he should still win by a million against Gillespie or Stewart.

Hello to everyone quoting this in November 2017 to laugh at me.

axeil fucked around with this message at 01:20 on Jun 14, 2017

# ¿ Jun 14, 2017 01:18

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Quorum posted:

Yeah, that's still true, 538 still holds that the fundamentals are strongly in Dems favor. I'm still sad because I feel that Tom had a better chance to energize folks who really need to be energized in off year elections, but if he couldn't do that in the primaries, it's a bit of a wash, I suppose.

Yeah I'm bummed too because Perriello seemed like he would really aggressively make a play for the House of Delegates and Northam seems content to just deal with it instead of actually fighting to change the calculus in Richmond. We're a blue state, we can take back the House of Delegates if only people gave a poo poo and tried.

# ¿ Jun 14, 2017 01:21

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

farraday posted:

If he couldn't get people to vote in the primary why would he be able to get people to vote in November? The liberal bastions have all gone for Northam, there is no intra party divide here.

Well presumably had he won it would've been on the backs of voters in districts where we need to pick up Delegate seats, so he might be able to push some folks across the line.

Seven Hundred Bee posted:

FWIW, Perrillo was a flawed candidate for a lot of reasons unrelated to his populism. I've heard from a number of people who know him personally and are involved in state-level politics that he's basically a huckster who is trying to latch onto a sentiment, and Northam would make a good governor.

And state-level stuff isn't going to flip until redistricting. The districts in Richmond for example are atrocious.

Oh yeah despite my grousing about negative campaigning, I'm really happy with how he's done as Lt. Gov and I'm very confident he'll be good in the big chair.

Anyone know anything about this Justin Fairfax fellow? Now that he appears to have won the Lt. Gov primary I hope we hear more about him. He seems alright.

# ¿ Jun 14, 2017 01:27

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Seven Hundred Bee posted:

Fingers crossed that Trump pulls it out. There's no way he pulls down votes from the Upper Midwest or New South.

This is my fear, given that the Dems just nominated a very middle of the road guy.

Seven Hundred Bee posted:

Well, a couple general things: Perriello has basically no elected experience (2 years in the House), made a lot of enemies in the state-level party -- which isn't good, issues with the party aside -- and his tilt towards the far left came out of nowhere. Basically, from what people who know him personally have said is that he saw how popular Bernie was, figure "gently caress it, I can say that same poo poo", and doesn't actually believe what he says.

I know people don't like how Northam was a Republican not long ago, but he'll be a good Governor.

I know he got all the state-level endorsements because he's been a good fundraiser/surrogate/supporter for everyone, I just hate how he doesn't seem to be focusing on the House of Delegates and taking back that chamber from the GOP. Maybe he is and I'm just not paying attention or seeing it.

# ¿ Jun 14, 2017 01:31

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Zikan posted:

uuuuuuhhhhhhhhhh

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/874791065353637888

That ain't good. There might be enough votes from the rural areas to put him ahead.

# ¿ Jun 14, 2017 01:58

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Cthulhu Dreams posted:

It's pretty fantastic if you're Northam I reckon. Though this is on point:

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/874791662714834945

People said the same thing about Clinton last year and welp.

I know we voted correctly last year but I don't even want to ponder the possibility of that KKK motherfucker in the Governor's mansion.

# ¿ Jun 14, 2017 02:02

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Good Soldier Svejk posted:

Seems like pretty decent dem turnout though, right? 100k plus over the republicans. Proportionally that seems like a small victory in itself.

More evidence of the growing enthusiasm edge.

It'd be nice if people had given a poo poo without it taking loving Trump in the WH though.

# ¿ Jun 14, 2017 02:24

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Kevin DuBrow posted:

I'm already seeing rumblings on social media and in other threads in SA that Northam was boosted by Republicans choosing the Dem ballot to vote for the less progressive candidate.

This is how ~~Bernie~~ Periello can still win,

A large portion of SA still believes that Hillary somehow "stole" the nomination from Bernie despite getting 3 million more votes.

We're less bad than most places but we're still idiots.

# ¿ Jun 14, 2017 02:59

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

my bony fealty posted:

That's badass, Cab Ride Home always put on a really good show the several times I saw them play. And she's trying to topple evil incarnate Bob Marshall, don't let us down Prince William.

Hilldawg won that district by 15 and she's up against the very architect of the VA version of the "gently caress trans people" bill. It's a perfect set up

for her losing because Hope Is A Lie

axeil fucked around with this message at 03:00 on Jun 15, 2017

# ¿ Jun 15, 2017 02:56

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

I made a post about the VA House of Delegate race over in USPol and I thought I'd cross-post it here:

Radish posted:

Goddamnit I thought they were supposed to be trying to get all the elections full of candidates instead of just letting Republicans run unopposed in districts that went Clinton...

They are.

http://www.npr.org/2017/08/31/546191644/shut-out-of-power-in-d-c-democrats-try-to-make-inroads-in-virginia-this-fall

http://www.vahousedems.org/our-candidates

http://bluevirginia.us/2017/02/2017-virginia-democratic-house-candidates-district

https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_House_of_Delegates_elections,_2017

Dems have no candidate 12 districts. GOP has no candidate in 28 districts. (There are 100 total districts)

Last election (2015) the Dems had no candidates in 44 Districts :gonk:

so they're doing much better this go around.

The current balance of power is 66 GOP Delegates to 34 Dem Delegates. There are 7 seats with incumbents retiring, 6 GOP (Districts 2, 28, 42, 56, 64, and 72) and 1 Dem (District 89). All of those 6 districts has a Dem challenger and the single Dem retirement district has the new Democrat running unopposed. Dems need to pick up 17 seats for a majority. Coincidentally, Hillary won in 17 seats currently held by the GOP:

On this list Districts 2, 42, and 72 no longer have incumbents and would be the most likely pick-ups.

Here's the history of VA government control since 1992:

In short, the House of Delegates is very much in play and the Dems are making a strong push for it but they're not trying to give the race national attention as that hasn't proven very effective (see: GA-06)

If you'd like to read more about this I recommend checking out this Ballotpedia link:

https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_House_of_Delegates_elections,_2017

# ¿ Oct 4, 2017 17:02

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

The election is tomorrow so I figured I'd post this here too.

VA House of Delegates info for y'all so you can get excited/depressed tomorrow. A mod or the OP might wanna stick this in the OP for reference:

The Virginia House of Delegates Election - November 7th, 2017

Virginia has a bicameral legislature like most state legislatures. Tomorrow, the lower half, The Virginia House of Delegates is up for election. Let's take a look at the race.

Candidate Recruitment
The Dems have done an excellent job recruiting and have candidates in all but 12 of the 100 districts in the VA House of Delegates. In the previous election they failed to run a candidate in 44 of the 100 Districts. :gonk:

The GOP has failed to register candidates in 28 of the 100 districts.

Current Balance of Power
The current balance of power is 66 GOP Delegates to 34 Dem Delegates. There are 7 seats with incumbents retiring, 6 GOP (Districts 2, 28, 42, 56, 64, and 72) and 1 Dem (District 89). All of those 6 districts has a Dem challenger and the single Dem retirement district has the new Democrat running unopposed. Dems need to pick up 17 seats for a majority. Coincidentally, Hillary won in 17 seats currently held by the GOP:

On this list Districts 2, 42, and 72 no longer have incumbents and would be the most likely pick-ups.

History
Here's the history of VA government control since 1992:

What to Watch for on Tuesday
DailyKos has done a much better job of this than I have, so I recommend following them.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...r-a-great-night

DailyKos posted:

Key precincts will tell the tale: is it an average night for Virginia House Dems, or a great night?

As is often the case in non-presidential election years, a ton of attention has been paid this election cycle to the top of the ballot. In 2017, that means the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, particularly the former (which has been viewed as considerably more competitive than the election in the Garden State). But there is a real story to be told downballot in Virginia, as my colleague Carolyn Fiddler reminded us earlier in the week. The Virginia House of Delegates, despite an outsized GOP majority, could well become the story on Election Night.

Few legislative chambers in the nation have as yawning a gap between how their state behaves in statewide elections and the balance of power in the chamber than the HoD, drawn by Republicans to ensure an impenetrable GOP majority. For the first three elections under the map, that mission was most certainly accomplished�the GOP majority has been hovering in the range of 2 to 1, currently resting at 66 Republicans to only 34 Democrats.

The good news for Democrats: the current field, plus movement toward the Democrats in Virginia, have rendered it practically impossible for any other outcome than a Democratic gain in seats.

The bad news for Democrats: the road to an actual legislative majority is an arduous one. For the Democrats to seize control of the House of Delegates, they�ll need to win roughly one-third of the GOP-held seats where they were able to field a challenger. That, to say the least, is a tricky mountain to climb, especially given there are only a small handful of open seats available in this cycle (Virginia doesn�t have term limits).

An analysis of the key districts at play, and in particular an analysis of the precincts that make up these competitive districts, tells us that major gains are certainly possible, and that while seizing the majority is highly unlikely, it is not completely out of the realm of possibility.

In the analysis that follows, we will look at many of the districts that are potentially in play, looking at the �critical precincts� in each district that may well give us hints at which districts are breaking to (or, alas, away from) the Democrats as the night wears on. To try to put a number on where we might expect these districts to be on Election Night, we looked at both turnout and performance in three elections: 2016 Presidential, 2015 House of Delegates (or, if unopposed, the most recent contested HoD race, where possible), and 2014 Senate (picked for it�s close margin and because GOP gubernatorial nominee Ed Gillespie was the Republican candidate in that race).

Let�s start the analysis, as Carolyn did earlier in the week, with the seats most likely to shift into the Democratic column, and then work our way toward the longshots that are only likely to fall in a true blue wave.

Probable Democratic Pickups (2)

HD-02 (Prince william and stafford counties)

As Carolyn noted earlier in the week, it is going to be a long night for the Democrats if this one doesn�t flip to the blue team. This is a district Hillary Clinton carried by 16 points, but unlike other GOP-held districts, it also went pretty handily to Mark Warner in 2014 (Warner won it by 7). If turnout drops as one would expect compared to a presidential turnout, there are still enough votes in the reliably Democratic precincts in Prince William County to make Democrat Jennifer Carroll-Foy a betting favorite, probably in the 8 to10-point range.

The key precinct to watch here is in Prince William County: Potomac View (PWC #705). It is a precinct that almost perfectly matched the district-wide vote totals in 2015�s race where Republican Mark Dudenhefer barely reclaimed the seat for the GOP. Also, in Stafford County, if the Democrats are even within 20 points in the large precinct of Roseville (Stafford #202), it�s a bad night for the GOP here. Hillary Clinton managed to get within single digits here, but both Gillespie and Dudenhefer romped here.

HD-42 (Fairfax county)

Republican Dave Albo has been stunningly effective at holding onto this district for close to two decades. With his retirement this year, however, Democrats have a golden opportunity to win a district carried both by Hillary Clinton (by 20 points) and Mark Warner (by a much more modest 3-point margin).

The key here is probably West Springfield (Fairfax #840). A non-presidential drop-off is also key. Clinton won this precinct by 27 points, but Warner won it by a much more modest 8-point margin, and Albo won it easily in 2015. Also, Democrat Kathy Tran needs to run up the score in Laurel Hill (Fairfax #628), a large precinct where Clinton and Warner cruised, and the only large precinct that Albo was in any danger of losing back in 2015. Turnout in 2013/2014 was only about half of what it was last year�Tran will want more raw votes to come out of that deep blue treasure trove of votes.

Tossups/Potential Democratic Pickups (5)

HD-12 (Giles, montgomery, pulaski and radford counties)

Unlike most of the targets on the agenda for the Democrats on Election Day, HD-12 is not a NoVa-centered district. It is a district along the Virginia-West Virginia border which merges ruby-red rural precincts with a dash of Dem-friendly territory around Blacksburg. Democrats have come close here in the past, with the notable exception of 2015. This year, Democrats have one of their star recruits in this district in the person of Chris Hurst.

Here, the key to a Democratic victory is not a key precinct: in fact, it is a county that has historically proven quite hostile to the blue team. Indeed, the surest way that a Democrat can win in HD-12, it would seem, is to contain the damage in Giles County. Giles is a ruby-red county that casts between one-quarter to one-third of the votes in the district. Hillary Clinton barely won the district, but Sen. Mark Warner won it rather comfortably (he beat Gillespie by an eight-point margin). The difference was Giles: Clinton lost the county by 48 points, while Warner lost the county by only 23 points. The bottom line for Hurst�in order to win, he needs to come a lot closer to mimicking Warner�s performance there.

HD-13 (Manassas park city and prince william county)

For a number of Democrats, a pickup in this NoVa district would be the most emotionally satisfying, on a number of levels. Veteran GOP Del. Bob Marshall has been a thorn in the side of progressives, governing far to the right of a district that has been trending blue for some time. In particular, he has run a particularly vile campaign this go-round versus Danica Roem, who is seeking to become the first transgender candidate elected to state legislative office in America. Marshall has proven to be a tough out for the Democrats, however, getting re-elected (and often quite comfortably) for the better part of two decades.

This time around, however, the prevailing winds might work against him. Few districts shifted more over the past several years than this one: Hillary Clinton won it by more than 14 points even though Sen. Mark Warner actually narrowly lost the district back in 2014. A key precinct to watch, and emblematic of this shift, is Yorkshire (PWC #212). This is a precinct that Marshall carried by 12 points in his 2015 victory, but Hillary Clinton won by over 26 points. The key here will not only be margin, but also turnout. Yorkshire has had a particularly steep slide in non-presidential turnout in the past several elections. If Democrats can boost the numbers here to even one-half of the 2016 turnout numbers, it seems likely those additional votes will be on their side of the ledger.

HD-31 (Fauquier and prince william counties)

Del. Scott Lingamfelter has been one of those Republican incumbents who has always won as of late, but never easily. Seeking his ninth term, Lingamfelter has won most of his contested races with 56 percent or less of the vote, including a 50-49 cliffhanger in 2013 against then rising Democratic prospect (and now state Senator) Jeremy McPike. Lingamfelter has typically run up the score in the district�s Fauquier County precincts, and may need to do so again to hold off the stiff challenge of Democrat Elizabeth Guzman.

For Guzman to win, she is going to need a big number out of Spriggs (PWC #207), a large precinct in Prince William County. When turnout is lighter there, it is a modestly blue precinct. But it became a dark blue precinct in 2016, sparked by a huge turnout boost. In 2015, it had the sixth-biggest turnout in the district. In 2016, it had the second biggest turnout. Guzman not only needs a double-digit margin here, but she probably also needs the turnout to be huge.

HD-32 (Loudon county)

This Loudon County district, held since 2009 by Republican Del. Thomas A. (Tag) Greason, is one of those districts that has seen an immense recent shift. The key for Democrat David Reid will be to sustain the gains Democrats made here last year, when a district that went to Mark Warner by just under 2 points became a district that went to Hillary Clinton by 19 points.

Integral to that shift were precincts like Eagle Ridge (Loudon #616). Eagle Ridge is a precinct that went from modestly red to legitimately blue in a two-year span. In 2014, Gillespie won it by 4 points. Greason improved on that in 2015, winning by 17 points in this precinct. It was a key component in his 53-47 win over Elizabeth Miller. But in 2016, Donald Trump lost the precinct by more than 20 points. So, Eagle Ridge could well prove to be a bellwether: if Greason loses here, he�s probably getting smooshed in the bluer parts of the district. If so, it�s hard to see how he will gain enough votes elsewhere to hold onto this seat.

HD-67 (fairfax and loudon counties)

The 67th is a bit of a confounding district. Looking at last year�s results, it seems utterly impossible for the GOP to hold on here: Donald Trump got beat here by nearly 23 points! But the same district gave Mark Warner a much more modest win in 2014 (under six points), and Republican Del. Jim LeMunyon has cruised here with relative ease since first being elected to office back in 2009. His toughest battle here came in 2013, when he still defeated Democrat Hung Nguyen by a relatively comfy 54-45 margin.

This time around, he has two problems: he has to worry if that outsized 2016 shift was temporary or real, and he has to worry about Democrat Karrie Delaney, who is easily the toughest opponent LeMunyon has ever faced. A key precinct to judge his fortunes here will be Waples Mill (Fairfax #916). Few precincts have been as �Choose Your Own Adventure� on Election Night recently as this one. Back in 2013 (LeMunyon ran unopposed in 2015), the incumbent won here with ease over the Democrat, winning the precinct by 18 points. In 2014, Warner won it, but barely (only about 1 point). In 2016, however, Hillary Clinton easily bested Donald Trump here, snagging this precinct by a 13-point margin. Only two precincts have consistently been better for Republicans than this one. If he doesn�t walk out of here with a considerable edge, he could be endangered.

Tilt/Leans Republican Retention (4)

HD-21 (Chesapeake city and virginia beach city)

There are two reasons why it is a little tougher to be optimistic about this southeastern district than the others we�ve discussed thus far. For one thing, Republican Ron Villanueva has consistently run ahead of the generic Democratic performance here. For another, this is the rare bird among the competitive districts that saw little difference between 2014 and 2016: Warner won the district by 3.3 percent, and Clinton did so by 3.5 percent.

That said, a district consistently carried (albeit narrowly) by Democrats has to be considered a target. If Democrat Kelly Convirs-Fowler is to have a shot, it�s going to come in places like Windsor Oaks (VBC #36). Windsor Oaks, like a half-dozen others in the district, is a place that Villanueva carried in 2015 even as both Warner and Clinton carried the precinct with relative ease. If Villanueva is up in these kinds of precincts by a solid margin, he�s on his way to re-election. But if Convirs-Fowler can keep those precincts close or even lead them, she has more than a puncher�s chance.

HD-40 (Fairfax and prince william counties)

Unlike most of the districts in our analysis to date, the 40th district features an incumbent who is really being challenged for the first time. Del. Tim Hugo, who was first elected in a 2002 special election, has never won with less than 57 percent of the vote. But this time around, he is contending with a legitimate and well-funded Democrat (Donte Tanner), and he is dealing with a district that seems to be shifting beneath his feet: few districts have shifted more than the 19-point shift the 40th district has seen between Warner in 2014 and Clinton last year.

So, the question for Tuesday night is this: is the present-day HD-40 the one Hillary Clinton won by 8 points last year, or is it the one that Ed Gillespie won in 2014 by 11 points? A key precinct that might answer that question is Willow Springs (Fairfax #851), which is one of those Gillespie/Clinton districts. If Tanner is tied or close in this precinct, he might be in the game districtwide.

HD-51 (Prince william county)

The 51st district has shown signs of competitiveness on the rare occasions in which it has been contested. Four years ago, incumbent GOP Del. Rich Anderson edged Democrat Reed Huddleston 54-46. However, Democrats didn�t field candidates here in 2011 or 2015. This time around, though, Anderson has a top-flight challenger in Democrat Hala Ayala.

HD-51 had a pretty strong anti-Trump trend in 2016. Back in the 2014 Senate race, Gillespie actually won the district by 7 points, which is actually the same margin by which Trump lost the district in 2016. If there�s one precinct that seems to have shifted even more substantially over the years, keep an eye on Bennett (PWC #203). Bennett is a precinct that was comfortably red in the not-so-distant past, but it is also a precinct that Trump carried by just 1.5 percent last year. Anderson and Gillespie both carried the district by 18 points. If Anderson doesn�t run up double digits here, it could be a red flag for the GOP.

HD-72 (henrico county)

The 72nd district features a GOP-held open seat, but unlike HD-02 or HD-42, it�s hard to characterize this as a race where Democrats should feel like they�re the betting favorites. The reason is the district�the tradition here is Republican, so much so that outgoing incumbent Jimmie Massie hasn�t faced a Democratic challenger since his inaugural victory in 2007. The Democrats have a solid prospect here, though, in teacher Schuyler VanValkenburg.

VanValkenburg is the most competitive Democrat to run in this district, which forms a suburban/exurban semicircle to the northwest of Richmond. And he runs in a district that might also be in the midst of a shift. The district saw a double-digit blue shift between 2014 and 2016, going from Gillespie +6 to Clinton +4. No precinct has shifted more markedly than Welborne (Henrico #418), which went from Gillespie +3 to Clinton +19. If the Democrats are to pull off an upset, this probably needs to be a precinct with a double-digit blue victory.

Longshots on the Road to a Majority (7)

HD-10 (Clarke, frederick, and loudoun counties)

The 10th district, represented since 2011 by Republican Del. Randy Minchew, feels like one of those districts that is just beyond the reach of a Democratic takeover. Minchew has won here with totals between 57-62 percent of the vote. However, there was a pronounced 2014/16 shift here, with a shift from Gillespie +8 to Clinton +4. That said, of the �Clinton 17� districts (those 17 GOP-held seats where Clinton bested Trump in 2016), this one feels like a particularly tough get.

For Democrat Wendy Gooditis to get there, she is going to need some help from Loudoun County. In particular, a precinct like Cool Spring (Loudoun #505), where Gillespie managed a 9-point win in 2014 but Clinton carried it by single digits in 2016. For Gooditis to have a shot at the upset, she needs to at least score wins in precincts like this, no matter the margin.

HD-50 (manassas city and prince william county)

Unlike the 10th district, the NoVa-based 50th district has all the hallmarks of a winnable district for the Democrats. After all, the incumbent (veteran GOP Del. Jackson Miller) notably lost a bid for PWC Clerk of the Court in April, falling to Democrat Jackie Smith by a 54-46 margin. Plus, the district had one of the stronger anti-Trump tilts last year, going from Gillespie +3 to Clinton +12. Part of the story, however, is that Democrat Lee Carter has been in a bit of a feud with the state party, which certainly dims the optimism here.

If Carter is in the game here, you�ll know by looking at a precinct like Dean (Manassas City #1). Dean is one of those precincts that Miller has historically won in a romp, but has been closely contested otherwise. Miller has never won the precinct by less than 22 points. If Carter is within single digits, or even manages to edge Miller here the way both Clinton and Obama managed to do during the presidential elections of 2016 and 2012, the Democrats might be en route to what would be a major upset.

HD-68 (richmond city, Chesterfield and henrico counties)

The 68th, centered to the west of Richmond, is one of those districts that looks like a golden prospect to people only looking at 2016 election data. After all, Hillary Clinton easily bested Donald Trump here, winning the district by a 51-41 margin. But this is a district that has been varying shades of red in almost every other statewide election this decade. Interestingly, the lone exception? Ralph Northam, who easily won the district in his lieutenant governor�s bid in 2013 (beating E.W. Jackson 59-40).

Republican Del. Manoli Loupassi has never been seriously challenged here, winning every one of his races here by double digits. For that to change this year, obviously Democrat Dawn Adams will need to replicate Hillary Clinton�s success from last year. To do that, she�ll need big performances out of precincts like Precinct 113 in Richmond. There are a handful of precincts in Richmond which have had two characteristics�big leads for Democrats, but leads that are tempered by a sharp non-presidential drop-off. To wit: while Senate turnout in 2014 was 67 percent of the Trump-Clinton turnout, it was only 52 percent in Precinct 113. Democrats need not only to run up the score here, they need a strong turnout, to boot.

HD-73 (henrico county)

The turf making up HD-73 has not been on a Democratic target, it seems, since shortly after the Earth�s crust cooled. Incumbent Del. John O�Bannon has held this seat since 2000 (fun fact�his predecessor? Eric Cantor!), and in that time has only faced a Democratic opponent one time�back in 2009. Democrat Debra Rodman will be tasked with taking on O�Bannon in a district that might be shifting a bit in the Richmond suburbs.

The district shifted markedly, from Gillespie +5 to Clinton +6. And if O�Bannon is going to be put in electoral peril, it is going to be on the backs of precincts like Pinchbeck (Henrico #412). This is a precinct carried rather comfortably by both Gillespie and Cuccinelli, but also carried rather easily by Clinton (won the precinct 51-42). It is also one of the larger precincts in the district.

HD-85 (virginia beach city)

Unlike the rest of the swing districts and longshots for 2017, this is a district that Donald Trump did manage to carry, albeit by a tiny margin (47-46). But unlike the rest, we also don�t have to go back to 2015 or 2013 to get a feel for this district. That�s because the two major-party candidates in this ancestrally red seat faced off in January. The results were close enough to declare this seat a definite sleeper race. Newly-minted incumbent Del. Rocky Holcomb is being challenged again by Democrat Cheryl Turpin, who held Holcomb to a 53-47 win in January.

The key for Turpin might be to goose turnout in the small handful of reliably blue precincts in the district, precincts like Village (VBC #76). In January, Turpin actually got margins decidedly better than Hillary Clinton here, as well as in the other three dark blue precincts in HD-85. The problem? Turnout here ran well behind the district average (which was not hot to begin with, given a special election just after the holiday season). If she can goose turnout in those blue pockets of the district, that may help her make up the gap.

HD-94 (newport news city)

The last time there was a gubernatorial election in Virginia, the Democrats came tantalizingly close to seizing this GOP-held seat, holding incumbent Del. David Yancey to a 51-49 win. This time around, the Democrats are counting on Shelly Simonds, the 2015 nominee who jumped into the race when the original Democratic standard-bearer dropped out.

The 2013 result, plus the modest Clinton win in the district (she led here 49-44), give the Democrats at least a modest chance here. To win, Simonds needs a better performance out of a large precinct like Nelson (NNC #210). This was a district that no recent Democrat has won save for Ralph Northam, but both Clinton and Warner managed to keep close to even. Simonds lost here 60-40. If she can keep her deficit here down to a modest margin of under 8 points, that could be as much as a 200-vote pickup for the Democrat.

HD-100 (norfolk city, accomack and northampton counties)

This Eastern shore district looks like a real tossup on paper. After all, the 100th is a district represented by Democrats as recently as 2014, when longtime Democratic Del. Lynwood Lewis moved to the state Senate (replacing, as it happens, Ralph Northam). It is a relatively rare GOP-held district in that Democrats carried the district in all four of the �major statewide� races of recent vintage (Clinton, Warner, McAuliffe, and Obama).

All that said, Republican Del. Rob Bloxom has won with ease in his two victories here, including a 58-42 win in 2015 over this year�s Democratic nominee, Willie Randall. For Randall to reverse that result, he is going to need a huge performance out of Norfolk City. When Warner and Clinton narrowly carried the 100th, Norfolk City made up more than 30 percent of the district�s turnout. But in 2015, when Randall got beat here by 16 points, Norfolk City only accounted for 23 percent of the district turnout. That won�t be enough to offset a near-certain Bloxom advantage in Accomack County, where there is actually a precinct that carries the family name.

Here is the critical bottom line: there are eighteen districts in this analysis. While many have narrow windows of success for Democrats, not one of them is a �no hope� race. And, if there really is a Democratic wave materializing downballot (as there have been for Democrats in legislative special elections all year), the unthinkable could happen�the Democrats could reverse a decade of adversity in the House of Delegates. If nothing else, the sheer volume of competitive races will make for an immensely interesting night.

If you'd like to read more about this I recommend checking out this Ballotpedia link:

https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_House_of_Delegates_elections,_2017

# ¿ Nov 6, 2017 18:09

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Your Boy Fancy posted:

If Virginia makes you nervous, hit me up on PM (or post here with an email you don't mind sharing on SA) and I can hook you into a virtual phone bank to call union members to remind them to vote.

The latest polls have been encouraging, honestly. Internally and externally, it's looking like an uncomfortable victory, but a victory nonetheless. I'm reserving a confetti wand specifically for Danica Roem beating Bob Marshall's bigoted rear end into the earth.

We have an amazing goon squad of phone bankers, and a few people who have come out to Saturday voter walks, and they've been incredible. Enthusiasm is HIGH - we had 276 volunteers show up for the last one on Saturday, and that's just the labor side. I can't speak to the VA Dems, but I know they're in force and they walk Sundays. (We refuse to, on the basis of "drat it, we're going to have a day off, and we're not interrupting the football.")

30 hours until the polls close in the Old Dominion. Have a look at these beautiful people.

Thanks for your hard work Fancy!

If you squint really hard you can half of my head in the back right corner of the photo. I got lost and confused about where to go so I walked in just as Justin Fairfax started his speech :v:

# ¿ Nov 6, 2017 22:23

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Your Boy Fancy posted:

Know why I'm freaked out? The loving weather! It's forecasted to rain steadily from 1100 onward in NoVA. I think of Brexit on rainy election days now. Anything that depresses turnout in a state where half a dozen candidates can remember winning by less than a hundred votes (I think Danica Roem won her primary by less than 20) is a nightmare. There is every possibility that this will implode spectacularly.

I'm trying to have a positive spin on the rain. We are definitely the more motivated side right now. I'm hoping that it depresses GOP turnout while we still show up.

I don't really have any strong reason to think it but hope is all we have. So I'm going to hope.

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 01:44

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Today is the day.

Good luck everyone.

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 13:16

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Massive lines in Arlington. Like they were last year. :stare:

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 14:07

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

axeil posted:

Massive lines in Arlington. Like they were last year.

Also Northam is first on the ballot. Someone did some research a while ago and that gives you something like half a point more than being second.

Took me half an hour door to ballot.

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 14:25

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

B B posted:

There were more people at my polling place this year, and I went around the same time as I did last year.

I'm poll greeting from 9 - 12, canvassing from 12 - 4, and then camped out outside the Ballston metro from 4 to 7. Gonna be a busy day.

Oh nice. I voted at the VA Square site at George Mason University Law School (aka A.S.S. Law)

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 14:26

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

My boss voted in Ballston around 7 am and she said it was deserted.

She also has said that it's always deserted because she thinks the only people who vote there are her building and the retirement home the polling place is in so who knows!

I would be out there knocking up a storm if I didn't have a bunch of conference calls today :smith:

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 14:37

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Seven Hundred Bee posted:

Henrico County (went for Clinton 56 to 36) has a 2 hour wait.

The whole county???

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 15:24

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Your Boy Fancy posted:

Latest update: Turnout is on track from 2016, and NoVA turnout is spinning at a MASSIVELY higher rate than 2013.

It's looking good as poo poo.

Keep it up Fancy!

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 15:58

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

mcmagic posted:

If you live in VA you should at least be excited to vote for Mark Herring even if Northam is a big nothing.

Justin Fairfax is also a certified Cool Dude

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 16:09

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Oracle posted:

And that's why you vote for the impure Dem. McAuliffe was a goddamn hold your nose vote for many because of his Clinton ties and he turned out to be the best goddamn governor Virginia could have asked for. Signed I don't remember how many thousands of voter restorations BY HAND because the Republicans were being douches and trying to keep (black) former felons from voting and said he couldn't just mass restore them. Remember that if Northam wins by less than 10k votes, it was likely because of McAuliffe's actions. YOUR VOTE loving MATTERS.

400,000 felons had their voting rights restored.

T-Mac did them all individually, by hand for months.

He's a goddamn hero. :patriot:

farraday posted:

Having read marx, I blame you for wanting to inflict his prose on children, you monster.

My favorite part of my econ department was that the History of Economic Thought was taught by a legitimate Marxist economist. We all read Das Kapital, and it's a pretty good read although it's really long and you have to understand the historical context in that he was responding to David Ricardo and Adam Smith's classical setups.

Honestly was probably one of the most important classes I took in school along with advanced econometrics and number theory.

Oh and I had another class with the same professor my freshman year where we did Marxian analysis of the oil market. Pretty neat stuff and very heterodox.

axeil fucked around with this message at 17:02 on Nov 7, 2017

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 16:59

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

mcmagic posted:

Electoral justice should be NUMBER 1 on the list of any democratic elected official in any office. Including statehood for Washington DC and Puerto Rico. Any Democratic governor who doesn't do this should be primaried. Without it, no other agenda issues will get done.

Agreed. Dem candidates in 2018 need to run on 3 things:

-Expand Medicaid
-Make Voting Easy (restore felon rights, same day registration, early voting, etc)
-Ban Gerrymandering

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 17:07

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

farraday posted:

You�re going to go broke, god speed.

I feel drinking with T-Mac would be a really fun time given the infamous "Hillary rum" interview.

farraday posted:

Took the same class and I agree, but the german philisophical tradition Marx comes out of makes his writing incredible chore to read.

Ugh. Yes. It's really interesting stuff but so, so tedious to read.

We also had to read Hayek in the same class which was also interesting but for different reasons.

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 17:12

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

farraday posted:

Not unless fancy is buying my beer too. I took a regular history of modern philosphy course too.

NOVA Goon meet to drink beer and discuss German philosophy/politics.

Also known as "the gooniest goon meet"

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 17:23

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

It is pouring in Northern Virginia right now.

Hope it doesn't impact things too much!

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 18:27

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

I just can't imagine the thought process of someone who was going to vote but decided not to because of rain. It's just so asinine.

Research has shown every 1 inch of rain reduces turnout by about 1%. The uncertainty is if that hits voters of both parties equally or if there is an enthusiasm effect. It's been argued Al Gore lost Florida in 2000 because of particularly heavy rain around the Florida panhandle on election day.

B B posted:

Are you going to the watch party tonight? I can't decide if I want to be alone and watch the results or be around people.

Nah I'm gonna be alone. If we lose I'm gonna have a meltdown and it'll be ugly.

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 18:40

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

DACK FAYDEN posted:

I'm with the poster you were responding to - I don't doubt the research at all, but those people are even more foreign to me than the people who never vote at all. How are you going to vote, but then the weather stops you? Like, what form does that utility calculation take?

"Both sides are the same and I don't want to get wet" - these idiots, probably

https://twitter.com/VotingGuy/status/927964930418135040

:ohdear:

I dunno if that's good or bad.

axeil fucked around with this message at 19:28 on Nov 7, 2017

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 19:15

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

https://twitter.com/VoteFairfaxCity/status/927963855879360513

Begin Arzy-ing :ohdear:

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 19:32

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ May 10, 2024 21:15

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

35% of what?

All registered voters.

https://twitter.com/CvilleVotes/status/927967376536211457

Charlottesville at 31% as of 1 PM.

Of course this info isn't that useful unless you know what the turnout was in 2013, 2014 and 2016 which I don't know where to get.

edit: I am good at the Google and found the answer:

Might want to sticky the historical turnout.

edit 2:

https://twitter.com/VotingGuy/status/927969547784720384

Trump won this county by 25 points. Seems like turnout is depressed in GOP areas.

axeil fucked around with this message at 19:44 on Nov 7, 2017

# ¿ Nov 7, 2017 19:40

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > 2017 State-Level Elections: America's "Special" Children

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