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abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


anyone use pod projections?

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abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


think fangraphs uses pod. they factor in ball distribution data and expected rates from what i can see. seems promising

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


exactly how i was planning to use them--thanks for the rec. his articles are the best part of fangraphs.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


225 budget, obp instead of avg, slg and qs added, can keep any amount up to 6.

schwarber @ 10
rizzo @ 30
donaldson @ 35
dee @ 10
j upton @ 10
j turner @ 10
c seager @ 25
bogaerts @ 25

definitely schwarber and seager. almost definitely donaldson and rizzo, though i might want to move them before the draft. bogaerts would love to move too. not really sure on the rest. dee almost certainly not. thoughts?

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


is donaldson batting 2nd, 3rd, or 4th this season?

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


i'd make a trade to consolidate value. barring that, drop springer

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


the_american_dream posted:

Is it steamer or zips for better bat projection? Keep forgetting

steamer for pitching, zips was the go-to for hitting. not sure if anything's better nowadays.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


depends on scoring. i think there's an argument for kershaw in some leagues.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


wacha has always had a ton of talent. his problem is health.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


i wish razzball would edit their work. there're some smart points in there, but it's completely smothered by the awful, unfunny, pointless 'humor'

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


well this is going to be a fun one

6x6 obp-league, slg and qs added

zunino
belt
carpenter
donaldson
correa
upton
schwarber
k davis
j parker
c seager
bogaerts

-

gallo
profar
deshields

chapman
diaz
pomeranz
berrios
ryu
morton
wheeler
mccarthy
lynn
karns
montgomery

gently caress starting pitching. i can piece it together as the season goes. in the meantime, trying to move xander for yu and seager for springer. also, zunino's a placeholder until schwarber gains c eligibility. i'll add and drop guys daily for that slot.

would be great if berrios came around!

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 02:00 on Mar 30, 2017

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


lynn

liriano pitching to the al east seems like a deathwish to me, especially when he's pitching in rogers half the time. lynn was good before the injury, though his effectiveness depended heavily on his velocity. how'd he look in spring training?

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 16:18 on Apr 3, 2017

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


the_american_dream posted:

I want to overreact and drop Buxton so bad

...why?

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


IcePhoenix posted:

He wasn't great at the plate today

one

day

calm down, everyone

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


one thing that did interest me today...bogaerts stealing 2 bases in 2 attempts. he tried another time but the ball was fouled off.

is this potentially a thing? he's never really stolen bases before so i'm not sure what to make of today's splurge. and one of them was 3b.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

He actually had 11 steals in the first half last year then just didn't run in the second half for whatever reason. I don't find it unlikely that he'll crack 20 steals.

thanks for this. that makes him a top 25 player in my book.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


just got mookie for seager :cool:

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


The Pussy Boss posted:

You obviously won this trade, but I don't think you fleeced the other guy that bad. I expect .300 and 30 bombs from Corey Seager this year, and that's being conservative, I think he's got more power than that. Maybe not in 2017, he's still so young, but soon.

oh, i know. i love seager and believe he's a first rounder, especially in my obp/slg league. but seager does have a definite ceiling. i really can't see him hitting more than 35hr, and batting 2nd in that lineup limits him to about 85/90 rbi. mookie, on the other hand, has upside out the wazoo. with that bandbox he calls home and that lineup, he could eclipse 100r and 100rbi and steal like 30 relatively easy.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


also, gallo looks like a professional ballplayer now.

do whatever you can to get him. trust me. his power in that stadium is a recipe for 40+ easy.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


yea, but they can't justify keeping him out of the lineup if he's actually figured it out. his power is stantonian and he walks at a drat good clip. it'll probably be rocky going in terms of playing time for april, sure, but i think he's worth it. upside is just too high.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Doltos posted:

Wasn't Seager's babip through the roof last year?

this is really the heart of the matter with seager. some people believe he didn't change his approach and was just lucky with opposite field hits. others believe he was trying for the opposite field and spreading the ball. if the former, yes, he was lucky. if the latter, not so much.

from everything i and my freshman scouting eyes have seen over the past season and this season, it sure seems like he's spreading the ball. his homer this year was a relatively effortless opposite field bomb. he kind of has an inside out swing, a bit more pronounced this season even.

i don't know, i'm a full believer. really weird hitter no matter how you slice it, though. his swing seems somewhat normal at first, but then you start analyzing it and it just gets weirder.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


did gary sanchez just die?

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


9m
Pete Mackanin says he'll talk with Jeanmar Gomez tonight re: closer's role and have decision tomorrow. Sure sounds like change coming.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


neris is the best for the job, but benoit has experience in the role and is pretty drat good too. is mackanin the type to put benoit in there because of experience?

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


BENOIT CLOSER

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Moneyball posted:

There is a top 5 closer out there who doesn't have a job yet. Happens every year. Make sure you get him.

vizcaino's my guess

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


at this point i stick to podhorzer's. more in-depth than grey and writes concisely

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


gray just died

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


e: wrong thread

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


i've found the most important thing in evaluating a streamer is the opposing team's l/r splits. it's a bit hard to judge now given how small samples are, so i refer back to august and september splits too, especially if the lineup's similar. this strategy really starts paying dividends in late may/early june, when mlb rosters are solid and your league's rosters are solid. from there, use common sense and play for the stats you need.

hint: use lefties against the dodgers.

also, the real money is in not having a catcher and streaming hitters on travel days

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 13:29 on Apr 28, 2017

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooool

dude in my league:

We are willing to trade top Giants prospect Arroyo ($5 keeper potential) for a mid-level (let's say consensus #25-35 ranked give or take and up for debate) pitcher. Someone that won't be kept but can help us a little this year. We'll send a couple offers out as well, first one to accept can have him, and we'll field offers and accept the best one we get as well.

me:

ha, i too would love to trade a slap-singles hitter with zero speed for a top 35 pitcher. good luck with that.

in related news, bogaerts is still available.

dude:

In other news, Casey lives in 11th place with Bogaerts who has 0 HRs in 1 month of action vs. Arroyo the slap singles hitter who has 1 HR in 3 games. And Bogaerts will cost $30 next year. Wasn't even worth $15 for this year. Good job, good effort. If you don't like him fine, maybe another owner can spot talent where you seem to be having a little trouble this year. Move up in the standings, then talk.

e: i've won the league 4 out of the last 6 years

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


think of that as donaldson + extra roster spot

easy choice to me

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


pick up jc ramirez

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


rest of season in an obp league: avila or wieters?

avila's hard hit rate and plate discipline have both improved dramatically. has something really changed with him? wieters looks pretty good too and will probably get more pa, though seems more likely to be injured.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


obp replaces avg, add slg, add qs

who wins this trade:

pederson + pineda

schwarber + morton

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


i would definitely not drop piscotty or jbj or polanco

i know little about morales or perez

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


pineda is like the most jekyll and hyde pitcher there is. he'd be tough to play in h2h, but go wild with him in roto.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Rand alPaul posted:

Avila isn't concussed anymore and isn't playing catcher as often. The problem is once Cabrera's back Avila won't be manning first base. Then again Victor Martinez might be officially done (or injured) which would mean Avila is back in the lineup.

Avila was once a really good bat, but he was overused like crazy and never recovered from concussions/bad knees. He might actually be a decent DH.

small sample, but he has the 11th highest average exit velocity in the majors too. that speaks to, at the very least, your point of him being healthy at long last.

http://m.mlb.com/statcast/leaderboard#avg-hit-velo,r,2017

i'm buying the gently caress out of avila. a player with c eligibility who in reality plays another position where he'll gobble up 50-60 more pa is a godsend. a player that who has that AND can put up good counting stats in a good lineup AND still put up excellent rate stats? these are the pickups that can make your team.

super low risk, super high reward.

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 13:30 on May 2, 2017

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


marwin gonzalez looks real, real good

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abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


his splits and plate discipline check out. still a small sample, but dude is swinging less at pitches outside and making way more contact with pitches in the zone. too early to glean anything from his fb and gb numbers. his babip is super low too.

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