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Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010

Grifter posted:

This seems like a horrible fight for Nick and I hope he takes it. I'm not even anti-Nick, I just love seeing Maia breakdance on guys who have good jiu jitsu.

I think Nick would probably bring in a better strategy for survival on the ground than Condit's weird belief that he was going to somehow retain guard and strike from the bottom until Maia gassed. Nick trains with Shields, the only guy who has been able to keep up with welterweight Maia on the mat. That said, (a) Nick'd still get taken down and lose, I just think it would take slightly more time and effort in Maia's part to find the sub, and (b) fight won't happen because Nick was spoiled by the paydays from losing to GSP and Anderson.

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Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010

tesilential posted:

Lol, keep up? Shields thoroughly outgrappled Maia, imo it wasn't especially close.

It was a split decision where neither fighter took much damage from strikes or was in danger of being submitted. Neither guy even managed to establish a dominant position for any particular length of time. I agree Shields clearly won, because he made Maia play his game and mostly got the better of him, but I didn't want to overstate it.

Nick doesn't really grapple like Jake so I mentioned it mostly because Shields must have had some insight into how to stop Maia from getting enough control to strike from the top or advance his position. They just wound up flowing between positions and sweeping eachother round after round.

Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010

manyak posted:

Maia has improved a lot at imposing his game since he lost to Shields and Rory in my opinion, im not sure he wouldnt still lose to those guys though, but he would be a favorite against Nick

I really like the BJJ Scout breakdowns of Maia and I wish he'd do one of Maia-Shields. I'm not sure if Maia got better afterward or if his game is about the same and Shields just had his number. I definitely see the Rory fight as a learning experience, because of how he horrendously he gassed trying to finish after mounting MacDonald in the first. Since that one I think he's been better about staying cool and working methodically so he has something left for later rounds.

Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010

Tezcatlipoca posted:

He still gassed ferociously against LaFlare.

in fact he gassed so hard he got a timidity penalty for being too tired to stand up in a reasonable length of time. but that was a five-round contest and the collapse happened later. He also gassed bad when he fought Brown, but he still had enough left to finish deep in the third. When he fought Rory IIRC he was gassed ending the first first round, the second he had slowed a lot and couldn't finish his takedowns, but he kept trying and burned all his energy so he was dead on his feet in the third. So he improved at least a little.

tesilential posted:

He Maia'd Maia just like Maia Fitch'd Fitch.
E: not as dominant but still enbarassing

maia fitched fitch and fitch fitched shields but shields maia'd maia?

Schenck v. U.S. fucked around with this message at 21:44 on Feb 1, 2017

Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010
WME-IMG took on a lot of debt buying the UFC that they now have to service, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see them shed fighters they regard--rightly or wrongly--as a bad value for the money. e.g. Story has been around a long time and can put on a decent show 3/4 of the time, but he's shaken out as a journeyman/gatekeeper in a densely populated division.

Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010
re: CommonShore

As a rule I try not to worry whether something is "good for the sport" or improves the UFC's brand. The sane level of investment in a combat sports promotion company is wanting to see cool fights and fighters you enjoy watching. I like fighters like Story and I'm bothered by the idea that maybe the UFC is trying to move towards a boxing-style model of big money fights between built-up stars and very little else--especially because boxing's bullshit is underwritten by a huge amateur scene that AFAIK has no equivalent in MMA.

So I agree with what you're saying. I wasn't implying that dropping fighters like Story or Larkin is smart business. I think the pressure of interest payments and seeking better TV and sponsorship deals leads to shortsighted decisions for near-term payoffs and cost reduction, and they'll pay for it down the line. A lot of people pointed to how they hyped Ronda and ignored Nunes, which probably boosted that card, but will leave them holding the bag now that Ronda got killed and retired forever.

Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010

Snowman_McK posted:

Tim Kennedy cheated against Yoel, then Yoel cheated less egregiously and killed him. That's my favourite Tim Kennedy memory.

IMO Yoel's cheating was actually more egregious, but he was at best 25% conscious during it, so I think it averages out to less.

Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010

Skip My Posts posted:

That said I think they're very profitable

Meltzer claimed UFC had >$600M in revenue for 2015 and netted >$150M profit, and that was their best year ever. These numbers are probably at least close since they are similar to the ones used to determine how much the company was worth when it was purchased. WME-IMG took on $1.8B in debt buying UFC. Depending on the rate they might be paying $100M/yr in interest.

Provided 2015 revenue was the new normal instead of a fluke, yeah, UFC is profitable even with interest payments. Meltzer's PPV estimates that somebody linked earlier indicate 2016 was about as good as 2015 and possibly better.

Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010

tesilential posted:

Ryan bader is a boring person but he's a legit top 5 LHW and should win the bellator belt

Bader beat Phil Davis when they fought and I am certain I watched the fight. I don't remember a single thing about it. I count myself lucky for it. If Bader wins the Bellator LHW belt I'll probably watch it, but I'm going to make an early prediction that I won't remember a single goddamn thing about that rematch, either.

Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010

canoshiz posted:

He really identified with Cruz's post layoff destruction of Japanese scum who dare lay claim to Dokdo.

remember when Zombie told GSP that his headband was racist and celebrated Japanese imperialism, and Georges apologized and stopped wearing it?

that was cool

Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010
Rockhold caught Boetsch in an inverted triangle kimura, Phil Davis tapped him with a submission that he invented during the fight, and then Boetsch nearly put Thales Leites to sleep with a uppercut only to have Leites come back seconds later and put him to sleep with an arm triangle. I wonder what kind of freaky situation he's going to be in when Jacare taps him.

Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010

Southpaugh posted:

Super happy that he's still contender material, its not a negative reflection on Bermudez that he went to sleep in round one, TKZ is just still very good.

Bermudez knew he wasn't a technical enough striker to stay out of a brawl, or a tough enough brawler to beat TKZ at his own game, so he had to hope he was a good enough wrestler to get on top. It was the right strategy, he just came up short.

Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010

kimbo305 posted:

TKZ's brawling definitely held up, and the counterwrestling was solid, but his attempt at head movement and movement in general wasn't really gelled.
The whole cocking his head to the outside and just keeping it there would be death against someone like McGregor. Not enough data to say where his chin is at now.

Bermudez landed a lot of clean strikes on him.

Part of the reason I was really happy to see TKZ return successfully to the UFC is I was worried that age would affect him worse than some other fighters, because he's so totally reliant on physical traits of durability and quick reactions. It makes him an incredibly fun fighter but it won't age well. He has heavy hands, good timing, and submissions, but he's not technical with either his striking or his wrestling. He moves forward, trusts his chin, and drags more technical fighters into a chaotic brawl where he can time a heavy counterpunch or a reactive takedown. At some point his chin or his timing, or both, will go.

I would also say that are a few top featherweights with a clear answer to him. Aldo or Frankie would just outclass him standing. Frankie could also spend the fight on top of him. Stephens might be the bottom-line worst opponent at 145, because I don't think anybody can just absorb what he throws. McGregor isn't going to fight at FW ever again, but if he did I say he'd also KO the Zombie. The really interesting fights are guys who will throw down with him like Cub, Holloway, or Lamas. Those are tough fights, but winnable.

Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010

Intel&Sebastian posted:

So like, have you seen any of his fights after Roop?

He got a lot better with countering at distance and conserving energy after Roop, but he did a lot of wild poo poo even in his best performances against Poirier and Aldo. I thought the Bermudez fight kind of looked like a return to a more brawling style, with how much he was getting tagged. But you're probably right and I'm wrong... it would have been harder to control range the way Bermudez was looking for the takedown, at least until he timed the uppercut.

Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010

tesilential posted:

Woodley beat wonderboy in every aspect of MMA. I didn't see any of you predict that...

Didn't see it posted, but UFC just put Woodley-Thompson 1 on youtube as a free fight. People can review it if they want.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RfZmIdc9mg

Woodley has the biggest moments in the fight, catching Wonderboy with his right hand, getting takedowns, the near-finish from the guillotine, but in terms of running time a huge proportion of the fight was Wonderboy kickboxing him up from the outside

Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010

big money big clit posted:

It's probably financially unrealistic for the UFC to keep every top level talent or prospect in house. They can't get in a bidding war with Bellator for every single fighter of note.

Yeah, the UFC isn't operating in a vacuum so you can't just say that WME-IMG is loving up and damaging the quality of the product because they're stupid. Bellator is bidding for talent and some prominent fighters made free agency work for them. Bendo and Rory might be a model for fighters going forward, instead of the exception that proves the rule.

Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010

Gumbel2Gumbel posted:

Don't they have to pay something crazy like 100 million a year in interest on the loan they used to buy out the UFC?

  • We don't know the terms of the loans
  • we know they borrowed $1.8B and $100M annual interest is a reasonable guess
  • it is not crazy, provided UFC can sustain the revenue and growth they have shown over the past few years

Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010

manyak posted:

Remember when some guy here was talking about how Conor is dumb because he doesnt know how to file for a C-69 or whatever and revealed that he thinks of peoples intelligence in terms of whether or not theyre an accountant

plumber < MMA champion < accountant < software engineer

Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010

Skip My Posts posted:

Yeah or takedowns from the clinch or something

Hunt is really strong and actually decent in the clinch. There are a lot of examples of guys trying to control him there and just being overpowered. It actually happened to full-steroid Overeem about a hundred years ago when he fought Hunt the first time--tried to clinch, got bitch-tossed to the side, then tapped Hunt with a kimura from bottom side control.

Shooting in on a single is really the way to go if you want to take Hunt down, and I don't think Overeem has a good enough shot unless he really sets it up with striking.

My guess is Overeem will try a strategy something like what he used on Big Country, who is another short HW with very heavy hands.

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Schenck v. U.S.
Sep 8, 2010

Skip My Posts posted:

i think overeem is gonna try to get it to the ground where he has an enormous advantage

basically everybody who has fought Hunt in the UFC had the same advantage, but not many have been able to punish him for it. In his title run Overeem mixed in takedowns and grappling in several fights, but I think you can also see he's very conservative about getting caught in striking exchanges (i.e. getting on his bike against Stipe). Hunt has shown that he's vulnerable to somebody shooting in on a single, but Overeem's preferred entries are different--compare what happened to Hunt against Lesnar and Stipe to what he did to Mir and Nelson.

The difference might be that Hunt has to actually respect Overeem's striking, which would help Alistair set up takedowns.

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